Potential points from remaining games

[godlike1]

I'm going to join the optemism and have looked at the remaining fixtures as to where i think we'll pick up the points we need to keep us up this season and they are as follows:

I have done this in the hope that we do manage to get at least some of the team back from injury and a settled side in at least the next 3 or 4 games

Norwich  (A) L
Watford  (H) D
Derby    (A) D
Leeds    (A) L
Coventry (H) W
Forest   (A) L
QPR      (H) D
Bristol  (A) W
Cardiff  (H) D
Preston  (H) W
Hull     (A) L
Palace   (H) W
Barnsley (A) D
Leicester(H) D
Middlesborough (A) L

That is 18 points out of a possible 45 and would give us 55 points meaning we would prob be 18th or 17th in the table.

I'm not sure about anyone else but that to me would be an outstanding success after the sort of form we have being showing recently.  But it does mean that we need some of the 1st team back on the field.

Not sure if i'm right or not but didn't our physio used to be at Wednesday and they had similar injury problems as well?

Anyway whether that last comment is right or not, i echo the thoughts of Filo and say lets get behined the team in what is going to be a difficult run in to the end of the season.  its going to be hard but no time for sulking, we have the manager and the players along with the bord so its time to show them like we did in our 1st season that we are behined them to the bitter end and that we will get out of the mire together.

[Sheepskin Stu]

I think that's a very generous assessment but I do think we'll stay up but by the narrowest of margins.

[Boycie]

I think we may achieve those results with a full strength team, but if we continue fielding teams like yesterday, we will struggle to get any where near those points.

[DonnyNoel]

I'd be a bit more pessimistic but still keep us up:

Norwich  (A) L
Watford  (H) L
Derby    (A) D
Leeds    (A) L
Coventry (H) W
Forest   (A) L
QPR      (H) L
Bristol  (A) D
Cardiff  (H) L
Preston  (H) W
Hull     (A) L
Palace   (H) W
Barnsley (A) D
Leicester(H) L
Middlesborough (A) D

13 points to leave us on 50, around 19th place. Its still in our hands and we still have Preston and Palace to come here. Must wins.

[danumdon]

When you look back at the end of the season on tables like this you always find that the points may well be somewhere near what most think but they are achieved at the least likely of venues.

Its always  the case that as the season draws to a close results go somewhat against the norm, mid table teams with nothing to play for, top teams just cruising towards their promotion or playoff, relegation threatened teams fighting for their existence.

Its always the case, the formbook is a waste of time in situations like these, always happens.

We will be fine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd be a bit more pessimistic but still keep us up:

Norwich  (A) L
Watford  (H) L
Derby    (A) D
Leeds    (A) L
Coventry (H) W
Forest   (A) L
QPR      (H) L
Bristol  (A) D
Cardiff  (H) L
Preston  (H) W
Hull     (A) L
Palace   (H) W
Barnsley (A) D
Leicester(H) L
Middlesborough (A) D

13 points to leave us on 50, around 19th place. Its still in our hands and we still have Preston and Palace to come here. Must wins.

I wouldn't massively disagree with those suggested results. Other than Coventry. They are a big, rough, tough, in yer face side. Just like Portsmouth. And if we put out a side against them like the one we've played for the last two matches, then I think you can write that one off.

Which leaves us on 46 points going into the last match of the season.

Football eh? f**king hell!

[DonnyNoel]

I'd be a bit more pessimistic but still keep us up:

Norwich  (A) L
Watford  (H) L
Derby    (A) D
Leeds    (A) L
Coventry (H) W
Forest   (A) L
QPR      (H) L
Bristol  (A) D
Cardiff  (H) L
Preston  (H) W
Hull     (A) L
Palace   (H) W
Barnsley (A) D
Leicester(H) L
Middlesborough (A) D

13 points to leave us on 50, around 19th place. Its still in our hands and we still have Preston and Palace to come here. Must wins.

I wouldn't massively disagree with those suggested results. Other than Coventry. They are a big, rough, tough, in yer face side. Just like Portsmouth. And if we put out a side against them like the one we've played for the last two matches, then I think you can write that one off.

Which leaves us on 46 points going into the last match of the season.

Football eh? f**king hell!

On the face of it when you look at their players I'd agree. But I went to the Ricoh and Clingan and Carsely stood back and let us run rings round them. Were it not for Westwood we'd have had 6 that day so thats whats giving me blind optimsim for that game! But then towards the end of the season the mid-table opponents get a bit easier so if the likes of Hull and Boro have nothing to play for by then we could pick up an unexpected win, similar to us losing to Plymouth last year.

[aspiers]

I always look at goal difference to work out the final positions;

17 Doncaster -16
18 Derby -3
19 Middlesbrough -4
20 Bristol City   -12
21 Crystal Palace -20
22 Sheff Utd -22
23 Scunthorpe -24
24 Preston -25

So we will end up 20th (and safe).

[BillyStubbsTears]

Always assuming that our GD doesn't carry on worsening at the rate of -11 per week...

[irishcontingent]

How will that look if NC give DRFC a hammering tomorrow night, how will it look if CC, NF, etc do likewise in future games. Feck Goal Diff, its points that matter, if we get to 50 we be ok for another season in CCC , if we dont get 50 we have to hope 3 teams get less.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually, to put it into context, it's quite possible that last week, Saturday to Saturday is the worst week of League results that we have ever had.

In 97-98, our worst League week was 14-21 March when we lost 1-7 to Cardiff and 2-4 to Lincoln.

Our worst run of three League matches that year was 13-28 Dec, 2-5 to Lincoln, 0-3 to Rotherham and 0-8 to Orient.

Of course there was the first week of the season, 1-2 to Shrewsbury, 0-8 to Forest in the League Cup and 0-5 to Peterborough which must be our worst ever week of League and Cup results.

I guess the only way from here is up...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Edit: Double post

[Rios]

Actually, to put it into context, it's quite possible that last week, Saturday to Saturday is the worst week of League results that we have ever had.

In 97-98, our worst League week was 14-21 March when we lost 1-7 to Cardiff and 2-4 to Lincoln.

Our worst run of three League matches that year was 13-28 Dec, 2-5 to Lincoln, 0-3 to Rotherham and 0-8 to Orient.

Of course there was the first week of the season, 1-2 to Shrewsbury, 0-8 to Forest in the League Cup and 0-5 to Peterborough which must be our worst ever week of League and Cup results.

I guess the only way from here is up...

I remember saying that first Saturday at Gay Meadow... \"well we aren't going to trouble anyone at the top but despite the defeat that wasn't too bad a performance .  We might be alright after all!\"

WRONG!

[BillyStubbsTears]

I remember saying after the Forest match, \"If they'd not stopped trying after65 minutes, that might have been embarrassing.\"

[DonnyNoel]

I remember saying after the Forest match, \"If they'd not stopped trying after65 minutes, that might have been embarrassing.\"

\"And the goalscorer for Nottingham Forest, Pierre van Hoj, Pierre van, er, Hojinnffufguigf\"

[ravenrover]

I just hope that we get at least a point at Forest, all I'm getting in my local is thats 35 matches unbeaten at home can't see anyone beating us at home. After the last few weeks they are starting to get carried away with what the score might be against us!!

[Akinfenwa]

I've just been looking at the remaining fixtures of Sheffield Utd and Scunthorpe to roughly predict how many points each would pick up (I'm not including Preston because, on 23 points they would need playoff form from now on just to double their points to 46. It would be a miracle if they stay up).

I'm no expert on each team but at present I just can't see either getting more than 48 points. Even then I'm being generous, accounting for better form, form that over the course of a full season would return around 60 points (almost a top half finish in recent seasons). I think that fits in with the theory that the points total needed for survival this season is looking like it will be lower than average.

So, we need about 11 points which should see us safe. 15 would almost certainly be enough. I know it's not as simple as this but right now it seems that Coventry, Preston and Palace at home are the obvious, important fixtures that we need to win in order to reach our minimum target of 48 points. The earliest of which is Coventry on 8th March, hopefully enough time to get a few of our key players back. Win these along with a few draws possibly against Bristol City, Barnsley, Derby, Watford or Boro will take us to around 48 and above. 11 points from the remaining 15 games is certainly do-able providing we get the majority of our best players back and they give it a good go like we know they can.

However if we can't get over 11 points after players start to return in March then we deserve all we get in my opinion, as despite it's weaknesses the first XI, if all fit (yes, big 'if') should have enough about them to finish lower-mid table. Fingers crossed that the injury crisis lessens in the next few weeks.

What do you reckon?

Remaining fixtures:
[/tr]

Doncaster

Sheffield Utd

Scunthorpe

A Norwich

A Scunthorpe

H Sheffield Utd

H Watford

H Derby

A Bristol City

A Derby

A Portsmouth

A Leeds

A Portsmouth

H Swansea

H Coventry

H Nott'm Forest

A Barnsley

A Nott'm Forest

A Watford

H Leicester

H Preston

H QPR

H Leeds

A Ipswich

A Bristol City

A QPR

A Norwich

H Cardiff

H Middlesbrough

H QPR

H Preston

H Cardiff

H Reading

A Hull

A Preston

A Crystal Palace

H Crystal Palace

H Bristol City

A Coventry

A Barnsley

A Reading

H Millwall

H Leicester

H Barnsley

A Nott'm Forest

A Middlesbrough

A Swansea

H Portsmouth