The only stat that matters...

[Mr1Croft]

As long as Pompey don't turn it around this is how the table looks:

[attachment=1069]6312updated.png[/attachment]

Now it is very rare for 2 of the 3 teams in this stage of the season to escape the drop and I would dare say there is room for one team to get out, and we need to make sure it is us.

A great win, and one that will inspire the faith back into many hearts of Rovers fans.

[AntoDRFC]

We know we can beat Palace :\\ thats one of the games in hand....

Also, P'Boro are on a slippery slope back down to League 1 its looking. They remind me of us last season when we couldn't buy a win, 38pts might not be enuf for them

[Berkshire Rover]

Just seen FP's goal, what a strike!

More of the same please, put your feet up Saturday Freddie and bang a couple in next Tuesday!

[hoolahoop]

Just seen FP's goal, what a strike!

More of the same please, put your feet up Saturday Freddie and bang a couple in next Tuesday!

Where have you seen the goal and was it in slow motion Berks ?

[Peebles Rover]

Think we need 21 points out of 39 available from last 13 games. Say 6 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats.  Tough but doable.

[andysly]

Not sure we need that many. 45/46 should do it. Especially if we can beat Portsmouth millwall and coventry

[hoolahoop]

Think we need 21 points out of 39 available from last 13 games. Say 6 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats.  Tough but doable.

Why do we need that many points ?

[Mr1Croft]

After the Peterborough game at home I made this table that was based on if teams continue the form of the last 10 games (so doesn't include tonight or Brighton results).

1.Reading	91
2.West Ham	86
3.Birmingham	83
4.Southampton	82
5.Blackpool	81
6.Brighton	80
7.Cardiff	74
8.Hull	74
9.Middlesbrough	70
10.Leeds United	67
11.Leciester	66
12.Burnley	65
13.Derby	62
14.Crystal Palace	59
15.Ipswich	60
16.Barnsley	58
17.Watford	57
18.Peterborough	52
19.Nottingham Forest	45
20.Millwall	44
21.Coventry	44
22.Bristol City	40
23.Portsmouth	39
24.Doncaster Rovers	39

So on that basis which I think is a fair judgement and will not look so different from what the table will look like (except us) we need 45 to stay up. We currently have 29 points so we need 16 from the next 13 games.

At the moment, here is my prediction of the results in those 13 games (just randomly guessing for the sake of arguement)

West Ham 3-1 Rovers

Rovers 1-2 Reading

Rovers 1-1 Derby

Rovers 2-1 Millwall

Southampton 1-0 Rovers

Crystal Palace 0-0 Rovers

Rovers 1-1 Birmingham

Leicester 2-1 Rovers

Rovers 2-2 Burnley

Rovers 2-1 Pompey

Middlesbrough 2-0 Rovers

Coventry 1-1 Rovers

Rovers 0-1 Ipswich

Based on only my predictions that would take us to 40 points where the question will be who can get more than that? So I think we need to get better results than what I am giving us and it does show how bumpy the road ahead will be.

But it isn't over till April and there is reason to Keep the Faith!

[dickos1]

Play like we did tonight and we will get double the 11 points you predict.
You honestly can't think we will only win 2 games out of 13?? 11 points from the next 13 games is quite a bit below our current ratio under Saunders, and as we're slowly improving, that ratio can only get higher.

[RoversAlias]

I think that whole thing by Lee is quite realistic actually. It's based around the concept of form and before tonight we were on a run of 1 win in our last 8 games. Stands to reason that 2 wins from the final 13 is quite a realistic possibility don't you think? We got a massive away win earlier in the season at Ipswich but it didn't lead to a spectacular turn around in form. I of course am hoping that this will kickstart a real push for survival and I hope we can do as you say and get 20+ points to achieve safety. That is certainly possible too.

Are you going to keep doing this on a match-by-match basis Lee? I'd certainly be interested in seeing how it pans out in relation to form.

[Mr1Croft]

dickos1, 11 points from 13 games equates to 0.85 points per game, under Saunders we have a ratio of 1.15 per game, so even if my predictions are wrong (I don't care, it was just a 5 minute thing and I will probably change my mind by tomorrow ) and we continue the whole of Saunders form we would only pick up 4 more points than I predicted, taking our total to 44. However the results were predicted based on my own guessing ability whereas the table was carefully calculated using the points/game ratio in the last 10 games (as that usually gives one a more better understanding of a team's form then it's average under a manager).

Alias, if you so wish I can't see why not, after the games that are due to be played tomorrow I will give an update as our 4 points in our last 2 games will definitely have an impact.

[Berkshire Rover]

Surely the only thing that we all have in common is we haven't got a clue what's going to happen in the next 13 games, if we did, there'd be no point turning up!

Lee, if you get another few spar minutes look back over previous seasns nd see how the teams at the bottom do in their last few games, I suspect a historical precedent will prove to be a more accurate predictor than an extrapolation of this seasons form.

[dickos1]

dickos1, 11 points from 13 games equates to 0.85 points per game, under Saunders we have a ratio of 1.15 per game, so even if my predictions are wrong (I don't care, it was just a 5 minute thing and I will probably change my mind by tomorrow ) and we continue the whole of Saunders form we would only pick up 4 more points than I predicted, taking our total to 44. However the results were predicted based on my own guessing ability whereas the table was carefully calculated using the points/game ratio in the last 10 games (as that usually gives one a more better understanding of a team's form then it's average under a manager).

Alias, if you so wish I can't see why not, after the games that are due to be played tomorrow I will give an update as our 4 points in our last 2 games will definitely have an impact.

Those 4 points will be massive, 40 points will send us down, 44 will keep us up

[Norfolk N Chance]

After the Peterborough game at home I made this table that was based on if teams continue the form of the last 10 games (so doesn't include tonight or Brighton results).

1.Reading	91
2.West Ham	86
3.Birmingham	83
4.Southampton	82
5.Blackpool	81
6.Brighton	80
7.Cardiff	74
8.Hull	74
9.Middlesbrough	70
10.Leeds United	67
11.Leciester	66
12.Burnley	65
13.Derby	62
14.Crystal Palace	59
15.Ipswich	60
16.Barnsley	58
17.Watford	57
18.Peterborough	52
19.Nottingham Forest	45
20.Millwall	44
21.Coventry	44
22.Bristol City	40
23.Portsmouth	39
24.Doncaster Rovers	39

So on that basis which I think is a fair judgement and will not look so different from what the table will look like (except us) we need 45 to stay up. We currently have 29 points so we need 16 from the next 13 games.

At the moment, here is my prediction of the results in those 13 games (just randomly guessing for the sake of arguement)

West Ham 3-1 Rovers

Rovers 1-2 Reading

Rovers 1-1 Derby

Rovers 2-1 Millwall

Southampton 1-0 Rovers

Crystal Palace 0-0 Rovers

Rovers 1-1 Birmingham

Leicester 2-1 Rovers

Rovers 2-2 Burnley

Rovers 2-1 Pompey

Middlesbrough 2-0 Rovers

Coventry 1-1 Rovers

Rovers 0-1 Ipswich

Based on only my predictions that would take us to 40 points where the question will be who can get more than that? So I think we need to get better results than what I am giving us and it does show how bumpy the road ahead will be.

But it isn't over till April and there is reason to Keep the Faith!

Is would be hard to doubt these results but one thing to be facted in is most of these teams will have little to play for and I can see us getting all the points v, Derby, Palace, Ipswich.........

One thing that has got better is the defence and the last 2 goals conceded have been due ti luck........

[hoolahoop]

It would be interesting to see if we can get above the rapidly 'imploding' Dingles with rhe extra game in hand.
I think we are going to see some major shocks now that one or two teams think they've already got enough points to survive. Posh and the Dingles spring to mind bearing in mind their recent performances.

[DonnyNoel]

After the Peterborough game at home I made this table that was based on if teams continue the form of the last 10 games (so doesn't include tonight or Brighton results).

1.Reading	91
2.West Ham	86
3.Birmingham	83
4.Southampton	82
5.Blackpool	81
6.Brighton	80
7.Cardiff	74
8.Hull	74
9.Middlesbrough	70
10.Leeds United	67
11.Leciester	66
12.Burnley	65
13.Derby	62
14.Crystal Palace	59
15.Ipswich	60
16.Barnsley	58
17.Watford	57
18.Peterborough	52
19.Nottingham Forest	45
20.Millwall	44
21.Coventry	44
22.Bristol City	40
23.Portsmouth	39
24.Doncaster Rovers	39

So on that basis which I think is a fair judgement and will not look so different from what the table will look like (except us) we need 45 to stay up. We currently have 29 points so we need 16 from the next 13 games.

At the moment, here is my prediction of the results in those 13 games (just randomly guessing for the sake of arguement)

West Ham 3-1 Rovers

Rovers 1-2 Reading

Rovers 1-1 Derby

Rovers 2-1 Millwall

Southampton 1-0 Rovers

Crystal Palace 0-0 Rovers

Rovers 1-1 Birmingham

Leicester 2-1 Rovers

Rovers 2-2 Burnley

Rovers 2-1 Pompey

Middlesbrough 2-0 Rovers

Coventry 1-1 Rovers

Rovers 0-1 Ipswich

Based on only my predictions that would take us to 40 points where the question will be who can get more than that? So I think we need to get better results than what I am giving us and it does show how bumpy the road ahead will be.

But it isn't over till April and there is reason to Keep the Faith!

I think you need to consider a \"holiday mentality\" effect. I'd guess Ipswich and maybe Burnley could have nothing to play for when we get to play them. I think 20 pts is achieveable, maybe more than we'd need if we beat the right teams along the way.