The Accuracy of Match Statistics

[dickos1]

There's a massive difference between hoofball and a longball. A lot of our play is played upto browny. And  he then holds it up,then we get players up quickly to support him.
This is a tactic not hoofball.
Week in week out teams win football matches without gaining the most possession, because the stat of possession is irrelevant, if a side is one nil up they will keep the ball as a means of running the clock down.
But that may not be the tactic they used to score the goal but is the best tactic to keep the lead.

It's far more complicated than saying you need more possession to be successful in fact it's a load of old rubbish.

[mjdgreg]

Under SOD supposedly we played possession football. The flaw was we tired more than the opposition thus conceding many late goals without scoring many ourselves. Also when playing against ten men we still tired more meaning even with an extra man we rarely got a result.

Like I said there are many more factors involved to be successful at possession football. One of which is you need to be fit. I am a great supporter of SOD but he wasn't perfect. Fitness of the players being an issue he should have done better with.

[FuzzyDuck]

How many people actually enjoy hoofball?

 - Not what I asked.  I asked how do you achieve more possession with more attempts on goal.  Also you are the first person to mention hoofball.  This degrades you're argument because by definition hoofball is poor quality.  Its also not going to increase possession nor is it going to increase shots on goal.  So why mention hoofball in the context of my question?

Not many I suspect. So first thing, playing this way would lead to an increase in attendances because fans would actually enjoy what they're seeing. They need to be entertained. Why should JR expect anyone to go to a game if they're not being entertained? How is this achieved?

Actually if you want to see attendances increase, the only way is to win a few.  I will give you that playing attractive football may slow down a decline in attendance during a losing streak.  But don't expect playing pretty football alone to get people coming to football matches, it won't.

The first crucial ingredient is to be able to hold onto the ball and not play hoofball. Aimless long balls simply gives the ball back to the opposition. Holding onto the ball does many things. Most importantly it helps your attacking intent. Passing the ball around frustrates the opposition and makes them move out of position which then creates gaps for you to exploit.

Possession football also helps you out defensively. If the opposition haven't got the ball they are unable to start any attacks of their own. Defending becomes a much easier job if the opposition haven't got the ball.

If you dominate possession then you are also able to control the tempo of a game. You can speed up or slow down play as you wish. By controlling the tempo of a game you gain the upper hand straight away.

If you pass and move, the ball does the work and tires the opposition.  Its much harder trying to play without possession as you do a lot more running trying to get the ball back. The longer you do this the more tired and frustrated you become.

This bit is simply you using more words to say "Keep the football at try to get lots of shots in"  You avoid explaining how this is done with a statement that there are many aspects to playing possession football and to go through them all would take a long time.  Would explaining ONE tactic that would provide a good "Possession Efficiency" (as you and the website you got it from like to call it) take a long time?

There you have it. A brief explanation of why possession football is much more preferable to hoofball.

Again with the hoofball.  I'd guess every poster on this forum would be no advocate of hoofball so why mention it?

So go on - I'll give you another chance.  Tell me a tactic (JUST ONE) that would deliver a high "Possession Efficiency".  Believe me, I understand the concept.  What I don't understand is how by listing possession and shot figures you can then claim Deano is listening / not listening to you.  I've looked at your threads.  I'll buy the figures are as correct as they can be but a good consultant (you) would then advise his client (Deano) what the figures show him he has to do to improve.  (and not just don't lose the football and shoot more - that's way too obvious).

[Viking Don]

Well I'm not going to get into an argument (again), but it really is NOT a priviledge to be able to post on free internet forums unless the mods make it so (private law). I never mentioned soldiers either. All I was really trying to point out is that I believe anyone who supports Rovers has the right to come on here and post their views (so long as they don't insult or threaten other posters), whether those views wind people up or not. It's interesting that Mick's posts get so many responses, in my view, if the people responding know so well that he's only on a wind up. One simple way to stop it is to stop responding surely?

I think a few people like having this argument with Mick and find it amusing, otherwise they wouldn't be daft enough to do it. It's fairly obvious to me that the fella is intelligent and is just having a laugh and a bit of piss-taking banter with people. I can't believe people take it seriously tbh.

Finally, just being in the majority doesn't make you right.

I see another thread about the secret footballer, but who is Mick I wonder? I have my own view and I reckon it's NW!

[FuzzyDuck]

First of all Don, I agree with you on locking threads.  It's a free country, just because some posters might not like the discussion on a thread, does not mean that discussion should be prevented from happening. 

On taking things seriously, I enjoy a debate.  If my posts that are looking to provoke debate are seen as my taking things too seriously, fine.  I know how I'm taking things (seriously or otherwise) and don't need anyone else to worry about it.

Stats do have an important part to play in the game these days however the stats provided through the BBC and co really only scratch the service.  The full opta stats service is an improvement, counting passes, completed passes, tackles, tackles won crosses etc is an obvious improvement.  I'd like to do some work with this package, but a seasons subscription costs about £500 so it's not happening.

Prozone goes further still and it's this and other packages like it that top teams use. At the top levels these days, it's vital analysis, at our level, it would be massively advantageous but I doubt there is the coverage (all teams/players/games)

The accuracy of the stats we see is adequate at best.  Most questionable are the possession figures because they are a timed measure.  There is more scope for error than with counted stats.  For instance, how do they handle the time with the ball not in play. (this averages 26 minutes per game in the prem).  They should stop the possession clock on both teams but I don't know if they do.  If you don't do this, the tendency will be (I believe) to calculate possession more even than it is in reality.

[MachoMadness]

First of all, apologies to VD for that mini-rant that was semi-directed at you. The thing is, I used to be a mod on another site, and so I'd hear the "my grandad fought and died in the war so I can say what I want" excuse all day every day from entitled teenagers - so often, in fact, that I just wrote a response in word and pasted it in whenever anyone said it to save time. I'm conditioned to hate that response whenever I see it, so while my point still stands, it probably came off worse than I wanted it to. Apologies again for that.

Anyway, I would disagree with the claim that we're in a free country - we're not. We're on the internet. Internet access itself isn't a right, it's simply a privilege we take for granted when we live in a first world country. That means the mods on this site can ban anyone they like tomorrow, for absolutely no reason. Would that be unfair? Absolutely. Could you realistically do anything about it? Nope. Nobody has a divine right to post on this forum, it is absolutely a privilege that you're allowed to do so, and can be taken away on a whim no matter how fair it is.

The thing is with Mick, people appeal to him because he's obviously an adult, and the userbase of this forum is largely made up of other adults who I'd guess fall into the 35-65 age range. If he was some kid, he'd have gotten bored by now, and would have been banned within an evening anyway because he would've just made 50+ threads straight away and told everyone to kill themselves. Kids/teenagers tend to go all-out like that. Mick has kept up this wind-up for over 1000 posts, spread over A YEAR, which just baffles me, but it does, in a weird way, suggest a level of maturity. The fact is he's joined a forum with the sole intent of setting himself apart from the community for a laugh, but has remained part of that community for a year. Mick's threads have nothing to do with discussion, as they invariably delve into bickering about the validity of the stats, which were indisputably established as bullshit in week one. Simple solution, lock the troll threads. However, when you start to hijack other threads with inane stat garbage, it damages the rest of the community and the only solution is to ban the guy. Agreed, just because some people don't like the discussion is no reason to lock at thread, but when there's no discussion at all taking place, that's when there's a problem. It's not a discussion if you're dishing out gems like "keep the ball and shoot more" at the end of it - that's like 'discussing' F1 and saying "drive faster than everyone else and don't crash". I just think there's a difference between heated discussion and blatant antagonism, and making the same thread multiple times a week before hijacking other threads when those get locked just ain't discussion.

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM.

Excellent points.

By the way, Picasso was once asked how someone should train to become a perfect painter. He said, "Make yourself perfect, then paint."

As a philosophical point, it is flawless. As practical advice, it's about as much use as saying "get your possession efficiency figures down".

[mjdgreg]

MM.

Excellent points.

By the way, Picasso was once asked how someone should train to become a perfect painter. He said, "Make yourself perfect, then paint."

As a philosophical point, it is flawless. As practical advice, it's about as much use as saying "get your possession efficiency figures down".

If what MM says is all true (and it isn't), then please explain why my threads and other threads I post on regularly get over 1000 views and many responses. If what you and MM believe is true, then I would get nowhere near that level of interest, especially as the level of interest has been over a long sustained period.

[MachoMadness]

Most of your threads are made up of you arguing in circles with one or two people (see: Bob Diamond Resigns), or you posting 2-3 times in succession when nobody pays attention to you. Once again, the stats are only half the story. That's not 'interest', Mick, that's just a byproduct of being a gobshite. I could go out to DTC now, banging two frying pans together and screaming gibberish about having a 3% possession efficiency, and while everyone would look at me, I wouldn't imagine they were interested in what I had to say.

Given that you seem to think any attention is good attention, like a chimp flinging poo, it's safe to assume that this is all you're after. I'm going to take my own advice and drop this thread now.

[bobjimwilly]

Most of your threads are made up of you arguing in circles with one or two people (see: Bob Diamond Resigns), or you posting 2-3 times in succession when nobody pays attention to you. Once again, the stats are only half the story. That's not 'interest', Mick, that's just a byproduct of being a gobshite. I could go out to DTC now, banging two frying pans together and screaming gibberish about having a 3% possession efficiency, and while everyone would look at me, I wouldn't imagine they were interested in what I had to say.

Given that you seem to think any attention is good attention, like a chimp flinging poo, it's safe to assume that this is all you're after. I'm going to take my own advice and drop this thread now.

brilliant response.  agree 100%

[mjdgreg]

Most of your threads are made up of you arguing in circles with one or two people (see: Bob Diamond Resigns), or you posting 2-3 times in succession when nobody pays attention to you. Once again, the stats are only half the story. That's not 'interest', Mick, that's just a byproduct of being a gobshite. I could go out to DTC now, banging two frying pans together and screaming gibberish about having a 3% possession efficiency, and while everyone would look at me, I wouldn't imagine they were interested in what I had to say.

Given that you seem to think any attention is good attention, like a chimp flinging poo, it's safe to assume that this is all you're after. I'm going to take my own advice and drop this thread now.

Not a very good response and you know it. It's very rare I post 2-3 times in succession. If I do, it is because I am responding to various questions thrown at me by different posters.

Your argument that I'm only discussing with one or two posters is also off the mark. Even if this was true then why do my posts/threads get 1000's of views? If it was just me and one or two others then there would be dozens of views at the most. The stats do not back you up one iota.

No wonder you have left this thread because you knew you could not put up a good argument to back up your case. You also knew I would be able to come back at you and make you look daft so you have decided to cut your losses.

[FuzzyDuck]

Mick - (notice I'm calling you Mick and take it as an indication of my losing patience and respect)

STILL not one description of a tactic that will increase what you describe as possession efficiency?  Ok - I'm taking it that you don't know therefore what you call "advice" is actually nothing more than copy/paste of facts available to Dean elsewhere.

Tactics that improve possession efficiency (pe)

Pe = % possession / number of shots (the lower the value the better)

So the most effective way to reduce pe is to shoot more.  When you have possession you must get in as many shots as you can.

Tactics that will do this

A. Route 1.  Ball is moved directly to forward players who shoot.

B.  Counter attack.  Team set up to play on the break allow opponents to come on to them hoping to dispocess them and then move the ball in to gaps left by them attacking.  Again to keep pe high the team should be looking to get shots off quickly.

C. Shoot on sight.  Again it's all about minimum possession per shot

Arithmeticaly, those are 3 tactics that increase pe.  Are they good tactics/the right tactics? That depends on the strengths/weaknesses of your team and the opposition.

Possession football will generally deliver lower pe's.  The %possession is increasing because you are set up to keep the ball.  Unless you get shots in, the pe increases.

If we talk about an excellent 60% possession game.  The ball is out of play for 26 minutes (average premier league result).  60% possession = 40.8 minutes on the ball (with 4 minutes injury time).  A 3% pe, which I am sure you would consider very good will getting 20 shots in during the game.  20 shots in 40.8 minutes = 1 shot every 2 minutes 2 seconds. 

I think you'll agree, that's going some to keep that up on average.  It will also require very direct play. 

Could you do this with a total football game. Yes, but it needs very good and fit players indeed!

[mjdgreg]

STILL not one description of a tactic that will increase what you describe as possession efficiency?  Ok - I'm taking it that you don't know therefore what you call "advice" is actually nothing more than copy/paste of facts available to Dean elsewhere.

Tactics that improve possession efficiency (pe)

Pe = % possession / number of shots (the lower the value the better)

So the most effective way to reduce pe is to shoot more.  When you have possession you must get in as many shots as you can.

Tactics that will do this

A. Route 1.  Ball is moved directly to forward players who shoot.

B.  Counter attack.  Team set up to play on the break allow opponents to come on to them hoping to dispocess them and then move the ball in to gaps left by them attacking.  Again to keep pe high the team should be looking to get shots off quickly.

C. Shoot on sight.  Again it's all about minimum possession per shot

Arithmeticaly, those are 3 tactics that increase pe.  Are they good tactics/the right tactics? That depends on the strengths/weaknesses of your team and the opposition.

Possession football will generally deliver lower pe's.  The %possession is increasing because you are set up to keep the ball.  Unless you get shots in, the pe increases.

If we talk about an excellent 60% possession game.  The ball is out of play for 26 minutes (average premier league result).  60% possession = 40.8 minutes on the ball (with 4 minutes injury time).  A 3% pe, which I am sure you would consider very good will getting 20 shots in during the game.  20 shots in 40.8 minutes = 1 shot every 2 minutes 2 seconds. 

I think you'll agree, that's going some to keep that up on average.  It will also require very direct play. 

Could you do this with a total football game. Yes, but it needs very good and fit players indeed!

I'm sorry but I would have thought it was obvious what tactics needed to be employed for pe. As we're on a football forum I didn't want to insult the intelligence of the readership. However it may be that I have misjudged the level of intelligence around here and if I have, then I do think you have explained things very well. Indeed I could have written most of that myself. You come across as nearly as clued up as me and I commend you for that.

[FuzzyDuck]

Yes, but how do we achieve possession and more attempts on goal?  As I suggested, this is a gross simplification.  What does Deano say yogis team before the game?  Short passes will keep the ball more effectively than playing directly?  But playing directly will tend to get you more efforts on goal.  So there's a kind of contradiction there.  Plus you have opponents trying to get you off the ball and stop you from shooting.

So I ask again.  What advice should Deano actually give to his team?  Please go beyond keep the ball and take more shots - that's like telling Gordon Ramsey to put all ingredients in and mix well.  Let's get tactical.

Ok. There are many aspects to playing possession football well but I don't want to go through them all because that would take a long time. I'll just concentrate on the possession side of things and explain the advantages of playing this way. If you're like me then you like to watch beautiful possession based football.

How many people actually enjoy hoofball? Not many I suspect. So first thing, playing this way would lead to an increase in attendances because fans would actually enjoy what they're seeing. They need to be entertained. Why should JR expect anyone to go to a game if they're not being entertained? How is this achieved?

The first crucial ingredient is to be able to hold onto the ball and not play hoofball. Aimless long balls simply gives the ball back to the opposition. Holding onto the ball does many things. Most importantly it helps your attacking intent. Passing the ball around frustrates the opposition and makes them move out of position which then creates gaps for you to exploit.

Possession football also helps you out defensively. If the opposition haven't got the ball they are unable to start any attacks of their own. Defending becomes a much easier job if the opposition haven't got the ball.

If you dominate possession then you are also able to control the tempo of a game. You can speed up or slow down play as you wish. By controlling the tempo of a game you gain the upper hand straight away.

If you pass and move, the ball does the work and tires the opposition.  Its much harder trying to play without possession as you do a lot more running trying to get the ball back. The longer you do this the more tired and frustrated you become.

There you have it. A brief explanation of why possession football is much more preferable to hoofball.

Yeah Mick - Look at your first attempt on how to create a good pe.  Possession football v "hoofball"   If we say "Hoofball" is route 1, then Hoofball actually is more effective at increasing pe than possession football (except by definition hoofball is poorly executed).  A poorly executed game plan is not going to help either way, so statements about hoofball contribute nothing.

According to you the keys are lot of possession and a low pe.  The two are to an extent contradictory, unless you have a really good team (like Madrid, Chelsea etc) or very weak opponents!

So when you talk about to two together, you are in many ways contradicting yourself.  Does that strengthen your arguments or convince people?  I don't think so.

[mjdgreg]

I would disagree with your definition of hoofball. To me hoofball is booting the ball aimlessly out of defence or midfield. Route one is getting the ball into dangerous areas by having the ability to pick out long range passes quickly.