Tories predicted to be biggest party at next general election

[IC1967]

Oxford professor Stephen Fisher is predicting that the Tories will be the biggest party after the next general election, just short of a majority. I like the scientific way he has gone about his research and would fully expect him to revise his forecast up as time goes on to giving the Tories a majority as the good news just keeps on coming.

http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/

[BigColSutherland]

Great stuff. Always nice to share news with others.

I've got:

"A vaccine that protects against a deadly form of meningitis is set to be introduced in the UK.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which has recommended the move to the government, had said last year that the jab was not cost-effective.

Meningitis charities said more data had led to today's decision, and it was a "wonderful outcome".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26679486

Has anyone else got any news they'd like to share?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good predictions by Fisher.

The Tories will get somewhere between 215-419 seats. Labour will get somewhere between 185-370 seats.

No shit Sherlock?

Go on then Mick. Since you raised the issue. Do you want to double that bet?

[IC1967]

Look you know my views on people that constantly want to bet on things. It's a long time since I was in the primary school playground. It is my contention that people like you that want to bet on things secretly know they have already lost the argument.

Being a bit selective with the bit you picked from his report aren't you? He is a professor you know at Oxford. Does he not tick your credibility box?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let me get this straight? When you bet on one horse to beat another, it's because you've lost an argument with a horse?

Anyway Mick, if you remember the bet we already have, the winnings will go to charity. If you're so sure of your argument, if you're so sure that I am offering a bet because I know I'm wrong, there's easy money for your favourite good cause.

Not interested?

[IC1967]

Has anyone else got any news they'd like to share?

Yours is just day to day news. Mine is earth shattering. Who wins the next election is going to be crucial to all our futures. The perceived wisdom is that Labour are going to be the biggest party (not a view that I've ever held). What my evidence shows is that this is very unlikely to happen. I just thought I'd let all you lefties know, to send you into the weekend in a cheery mood.

[IC1967]

Here's the bit Billy should have copied:

Forecast Election Day Seats
Con : 307
Lab : 285
LD  : 31
Con largest party, but short of a majority by 19

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 59%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 41%
Pr(Con majority) = 35%
Pr(Lab majority) = 20%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 45%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 24%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 21%

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Mick. Whatever you say Mick.

I'm just really surprised that you don't want to take up my offer to give money to your favourite charity.

By the way. He's a junior lecturer, not a professor. World of difference.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Geez you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the polls are not great for the Tories still.  But a long, long way to go. I'm still pessimistic that Labour's poor rhetoric will win through.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

It's a tough one to call. This is the first GE for two generations in which we won;t have a strong centre party. Possibly, depending on how UKIP hold up, the first one ever in which there is a party on the right dragging voted from the Tories. As a result, analyses like that one of Fishers' which rely on processing data from the run up to previous elections are dubious at best.

There's a second issue which is unique in modern times in this Parliament. Generally, you see big swings from one main party to the other over the duration of a Parliament. This was has seen astonishingly steady polling data. In the first few weeks after the 2010 election, something like 2-3million LD voters changed their allegiance to Labour according to the polls. The vast majority of them have stayed with Labour. As a result, since Xmas 2010, Labour have been almost exclusively in a band between 38-43% in the polls. They have the odd poll a bit either side, but that's predominantly down to the margin of error in sampling.

Similarly with the Tories. They spent the whole of 2011 at around 35-36%. They had a brief and small rise in Dec 2011 when Cameron made a big deal announcing that he was taking Europe on, but that soon fell flat. After the shambolic Budget in 2012, they dropped to 31-34% and they've stayed there ever since.

Millpond flat polling.

That is unprecedented. Usually, big events cause big shifts in polling, emphasising that voters are not rock solid in their affiliations, and can be swayed either way. In the 3 years up to 2010, Lab's poll figures varied between 21-43% and the Tories from 32-47%.

The variations in the run up to previous elections was

Election...Lab.......Con
05.........32-46.....29-36
01.........35-53.....26-37
97.........43-59.....24-31
92.........36-52.....31-45
87.........29-41.....29-44
83.........26-51.....27-49

You see the argument? This time, it's as though people made their minds up in 2010 and, apart from a very small number of movers, hardly anything has changed their minds since then. This graph shows just how solid the polling has been since 2010.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

Compare it to what happened in the last Parliament for an example of a more usual amount of volatility.


That is why people who are claiming that there will be big changes of vote intention in the run up to 2015 are probably being a bit silly. Like old Mick, back in the Autumn, when he was predicting that Labour would be on 26% in the polls by this May. I still can't for the life of me figure out why he refused to answer me when I offered him a bet on that.

Of course, it MIGHT all change in the next 14 months. Miliband might be caught buggering a cat, or Cameron might find the cure for cancer. But at the moment, there is no sign of drift between the parties. And no sign of any momentous events on the horizon to signal where the big change might come from.

[IC1967]

And no sign of any momentous events on the horizon to signal where the big change might come from.

Are you aware that we've just had a budget where clever George has just won lots of votes off the oldies with his brilliant pension reforms? During the next 14 months things are going to get rosier and rosier and the Tories will get the benefit


I must be honest though and say part of me wants Labour to win (my heart). It could even prove to be a good thing long term. If they do get into power there is still a lot of austerity required. They'd have to carry on clearing up the mess they left behind last time. Once they've implemented the required spending cuts during the course of the next parliament I don't think they would ever be electable again.

It is credit to the Tories that despite having to clear up Labour's monumental mess they are favourites to win the election.

[Donnywolf]

Let me get this straight? When you bet on one horse to beat another, it's because you've lost an argument with a horse?

Anyway Mick, if you remember the bet we already have, the winnings will go to charity. If you're so sure of your argument, if you're so sure that I am offering a bet because I know I'm wrong, there's easy money for your favourite good cause.

Not interested?

Neigh lad Neigh lad (says Mick of course)

[Muttley]

The biggest party at the next General Election will be the one I'm throwing when them Tory t**ts get booted out!

[hoolahoop]

The biggest party at the next General Election will be the one I'm throwing when them Tory t**ts get booted out!

In your dreams muttley

[The Red Baron]

Here's the bit Billy should have copied:

Forecast Election Day Seats
Con : 307
Lab : 285
LD  : 31
Con largest party, but short of a majority by 19

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 59%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 41%
Pr(Con majority) = 35%
Pr(Lab majority) = 20%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 45%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 24%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 21%

You'd get pretty good odds against that at the moment, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see it happen. Miliband is a big problem for Labour in that he just doesn't look like a Prime Minister in waiting. I do think that counts for a lot these days, although probably it shouldn't.

Much as I don't like the idea of another Coalition, I think my money would definitely be going on another Hung Parliament.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I've been saying for years that Miliband looks weird, sounds weird and is really very unpopular. People like that don't get elected as PM.

Oh hang on. Wasn't there someone in 1979 who managed it, despite being far, far less popular in the polls than her opponent?

[IC1967]

You'd get pretty good odds against that at the moment, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see it happen.

I'm very confident it will happen. Labour aren't going to get any more popular between now and then. The Tories are. The economic outlook is getting better by the day and we've still got 14 months to go.

The bookies odds are only a reflection of the weight of money behind each choice. It's not very scientific. Most gamblers are Labour supporters and don't have a clue about politics. Trust me there's a lot of money to be made by backing the Tories.

I'd get on now before the odds shorten which they surely will. You can currently get 2 to 1 on the Tories being the biggest party at Paddy Power. It's like stealing money.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

You could get another hundred quid from me for your favourite charity. Why not steal some if that money?

[IC1967]

I refer you to my previous post about little children in the playground 'betting' when they have lost the argument.

[RedJ]

If you were so confident surely you, a professional gambler no less, would want a sum of money to go to your favourite charity, no?

[IC1967]

I refer you to my previous post about little children in the playground 'betting' when they have lost the argument.

I am also a little uncomfortable about the proceeds of 'gambling' being used for good causes. Also I suspect Billy is making decisions about his family's finances without consulting them about whether they would be comfortable with a drop in standard of living. I also don't want Billy to get hooked on gambling. It takes a rare type of person (such as myself) that can make money from the industry. 99.99% of people lose money at gambling and from what I've seen, I'm certain Billy fits into this category.I don't want to encourage Billy onto the slippery slope of destitution that a gambling addiction can cause.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

It's nothing to do with gambling. It's purely about charitable donations. It's a little bit of fun to see where my charitable donations will go.

But I fully understand you not having the courage of your convictions. Your track record on making predictions from statistical evidence is pretty poor isn't it.

How's the possession efficiency looking these days?

[IC1967]

Look, Billy. I'm doing you a big favour (and your family's finances). Here's the latest 2 opinion poll results reported in the Guardian (hopefully you approve of the standards of reporting in this leftie newspaper). The polls show Labour are now only 1% ahead of the Tories!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/23/post-budget-poll-boost-tories-george-osborn

I know you don't like the Mail but they go into a lot of detail about where it's going wrong for red Ed.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587013/Tories-cash-pensions-joy-Dramatic-poll-reveals-parties-neck-neck-Budget-boost.html

The best odds you can now get on the Tories being the biggest party are 11/8 (down from the 2/1 I was urging you all to take). With 14 months to go the Tories will make further progress. After the next budget I expect them to pull well clear of Labour and form the next government. Great news for all right minded people.

I hope Labour keep banging on about the cost of living crisis because by the time of the next election it won't be an issue. Those that do feel there is a cost of living crisis blame Labour for it anyway. They really don't have a clue about having a proper strategy to win the election. All they do is complain about everything the Tories do and come up with no policies of their own. The odd one they do come up with are pathetic such as the fuel price freeze.

[Rios]

Don't know if this has been mentioned before (or on another thread) but how does the possible removal of the Scottish votes from the UK parliament affect Labour?  The Tories in recent history haven't been popular and it's been a bit of a goldmine for Labour especially after Thatcher.  Surely the independance of Scotland will affect the Labour vote...

[RedRover45]

Don't know if this has been mentioned before (or on another thread) but how does the possible removal of the Scottish votes from the UK parliament affect Labour?  The Tories in recent history haven't been popular and it's been a bit of a goldmine for Labour especially after Thatcher.  Surely the independance of Scotland will affect the Labour vote...

I think you're right Rios. In my humble opinion, the independence if Scotland will severely dent Labour to an extent that I can foresee them not being a viable option to challenge the Conservatives. It's no wonder that Cameron and his cronies are only half heartedly trying to dissuade the Scottish populace. They're looking at the bigger long term picture.

[BillyStubbsTears]

1) There is very little chance that Scotland will vote for independence.
2) It's true that it would benefit the Tories if they did (although Labour HAS several times won a majority of English and Welsh seats - 1945, 1966 and 1997 if I remember correctly).
3) even so, I don't buy the argument that Cameron would want the Scots to go. Their official name is the Conservative and Unionist Party. It would be a historic failure to preside over the break up of the Union.

[IC1967]

If Scotland goes independent our own general election will be thrown into turmoil. It would be likely that we would pass laws banning Scotch MP's from the UK parliament which would mean Labour would have no chance of forming a government. However at this stage nothing is definite.

I'm praying the Scotch vote for independence as this will almost definitely mean we have a Tory government. Longer term Labour would have to get rid of it's lefty outlook and become much more like the Tories if they ever wanted to get into power again.

The Scotch have already done tremendous damage to England with Gordon Brown, Tony Bliar and Alistair Darling wrecking the economy during their time in power. I for one have had enough of Scotch politicians to last me a lifetime. England is a naturally Tory country and it is very undemocratic in the extreme that another country can deprive us of the government that most of us in England want.

[The Red Baron]

1) There is very little chance that Scotland will vote for independence.

I wouldn't want to put too much money on that, BST. The polls show a growing trend towards the YES camp.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

Even if there is a slight majority for NO this time, the odds are that the Nationalists will soon be pushing for another vote.

[Rios]

I was chatting to my cousin about this who is very much in the seperation camp and was giving it the whole spiel about being independant.  I countered with "Put it in football terms, it's the choice of being the assistant manager of Manchester United or the Manager of Rochdale.  We all want to make our own choices, but sometimes it's better to be at the big table and have a say than nobody listening to you at all because you're too small to be of any significance."  He told me to f*** off, so I took it as a victory!

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

If it's closer than 55-45 on polling day for "NO", I'll be astonished.