Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

When the Tories came into power the National Debt was £0.76 trillion. It currently stands at £1.36 trillion. By the time of the next election it will have almost doubled.

Billy wanted it to have been even higher! The Tories have not cut anything like as deep and far as they should have done. The fact that the National Debt has almost doubled in such a short time shows how much of a mess Labour left the economy in.

The Tories have been lambasted for savage cuts and implementing an austerity programme. The size of the National Debt shows clearly that we have not had an austerity programme. Neither have other countries.

BST and his followers really need to read the following article.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2013/05/26/austerity-to-blame-but-wheres-the-austerity/

[River Don]

We're running something like a 6% defecit to get 3% growth. If we had to stick to EU rules we'd be running a 3% defecit and have no growth, the same as most of Europe.

It's a strange 'recovery' this. Little sign of real growth and falling wages. But lots of poorly paid, part time, zero hour contract work.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

The oil price increased steadily through the 00s. Inflation adjusted Brent crude was around $25 a barrel in 1997. By 2007 it was $70. But there was no sign of a commensurate drop in productivity in developed economies.

You say it "could" be bad economic policy everywhere at once. That is precisely the point. There WAS bad policy across Europe and the USA all at once from 2010 onwards. That is exactly what happened when Austerity mania kicked in and it is exactly at that time that productivity growth veered away from its long term trend. (PS: look what the continued Austerity obsession in the Euro Zone is still doing...)

Look at a developed economy that DIDN'T engage in sudden Austerity. Australia's fiscal tightening was far less severe than that in Europe, USA or UK from 2010. Their productivity growth has been stronger than any of those in the last 4 years, but they still exist in the same oil price environment as the rest of us.

[River Don]

I'm not sure quite how it works with oil but there does seem to be tipping points. It's generally accepted that $110 pb is about the level you expect to see demand destruction occurring (at least that is the level where people start driving less), $130+ seems to be the level deemed that a developed economy can no longer function properly. I have no idea why those two levels should be significant.

Australia is an interesting case, might it partly have fared better because it still has vast natural resources and was able to continue exporting throughout the crisis?

I'm not saying you don't make a good point BST, you could well be right. It's just this 'recovery' is so extraordinary and I can't help but feel something else is going on. Perhaps it's a double whammy?

Your chart doesn't show it but I'm sure I've read the falling productivity in developed nations has been a concern for sometime before the crash in 2008? They reckon we reached peak oil sometime around 2002 I think, whether there is a correlation I don't know.

[IC1967]

There has not been austerity!!! You obviously are economically illiterate and spout cobblers despite me producing overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Change the record and come into the real world.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD
I'm sure that the increase in oil costs is a factor. It must be. But it's the timing that does it for me. It's the fact that we have seen a collapse in productivity that EXACTLY matches the onset of Austerity in early 2010 across ALL the countries who embraced Austerity.

I know we have different opinions about oil though. I have considerable faith in the ability of capitalism to re-invent itself and incentivise new approaches when old ones hit the buffers. There's a convincing argument that one if the major reasons why the West won the Cold War was that the western economies reacted to the oil shocks of the 70s by developing far more fuel efficient processes (more efficient cars and planes for example) whilst Russia's command economy didn't change (and briefly took a bonus from the high oil and gas prices).

I generally take Malthusian predictions about the effect of a resource running out with a pinch of salt. Those predictions have been made regularly for 250 years and they've never yet been right. When the commercial pressure becomes too great, the capitalist system incentivises the next paradigm shift, whatever that might be. I suspect it'll happen this time.

Whether it is led by the West when it happens is another question altogether. We've consciously chosen to make ourselves poorer by the economic policies we've adopted over the last half decade. In the UK and EZ, GDP per capita is now about 15% lower than it would have been if it had continued to grow like it did from 1950-2007. And it compounds of course, because GDP is an annual rate. It is truly scary how much development we have wasted and it is even scarier that there is no sign of us bucking out of it yet. GDP is increasing but GDP per capita, like productivity, is utterly stagnant. That's wasted output, entrepreneurialism, innovation. Many more years of this and we have a very worrying future to look forward to. If we get trapped in a low-productivity, low-wage, low per capita growth scenario, we may well not break out of it.

Somewhere in the world, capitalism will flourish and take on the next generation's challenges. But it's not guaranteed to be here.

[River Don]

Low productivity, low wage, Low growth and ever growing debt. It can't carry on like this, either it finally starts to get better or we really will have severe problems.

I hate to be too gloomy but we're leaving it late to find a replacement energy sources. I can't help thinking we should be investing heavily in nuclear power now. Yesterday. I also think we should be following the Germans in developing new clean coal power stations. Oil resources we know are beginning to dwindle but coal is still relatively plentiful. I think we should invest heavily in electrified public transport services, high speed rail, all rail needs to be electrified and we need more tram and metro systems. There seems to be some progress being made with solar, not so useful for us in the UK maybe. Really we should be doing all we can to preserve the oil for areas where it is essential. Agriculture. We could all do a lot to be much more efficient, built in obsolescence in products infuriates me.

However all this kind of planning would require people to accept and believe there is a problem and so far there is little sign of it. In my experience very few people are prepared to even consider the possibility. How many politicians understand the oil is starting to run out? Or at least understand that energy is going to remain expensive and understand what it entails?

Maybe we will have to face the shock of another economic contraction to shift us out of our complacency?

[IC1967]

Get in. Yougov have the Yes campaign ahead in the Scotch Independence referendum. This is the first time a major polling organisation has put the Yes campaign ahead. Given that the same polling organisation had the No campaign ahead by 22 points only a month ago the out come of the referendum is now blindingly obvious. The Scotch are going to vote for independence.

Labour are going to lose so many Scotch MP's that there is now no possibility whatsoever of them winning the general election.

I am so happy.

[wilts rover]

You may very well be happy but your state of happiness - like the result of the vote for scottish independence - will have no effect whatsover on the consituencies for the next general election. Even if Scotland votes to become independent it wont happen until after the general election so at this moment in time Scotland will elect MP's for Westminster.

I thought a man of your great intellect and depth of reading would have known that.....

[IC1967]

Get a grip man. You don't seriously expect the general election to go ahead as if nothing had happened? I expect the general election will be delayed so we can make sure that any Scottish Labour MP's that would have (not of) been voted in don't get the chance to influence English affairs at Westminster.

[The Red Baron]

The GE will still go ahead in May 2015, but you would have a short-lived parliament and government, both of which will probably have to be dissolved once independence actually happened in 2016.

I think you (IC1967) should be careful what you wish for. Scottish independence will lead to lower living standards for all of us, and quite probably another economic recession. The Better Together campaign has been a disaster, fronted by Mr Charisma-Bypass himself, though it says much for the "pulling power" of the present Labour leadership that the NO camp's lead has evaporated ever since they stepped up their campaigning in Scotland!

The only hope for the NO camp is that some Scots may currently be planning to vote YES to make a political point against Westminster parties or to gain more concessions from the rest of the UK. If they don't actually want independence they may drift to the NO side. I suppose the other possibility is a Kinnock-style outbreak of Hubris from Salmond and co.

[IC1967]

Scotch independence will be a massive political earthquake. The general election will definitely be affected. Even if it is not delayed, then there is more than a good chance that Scotch constituencies will not be allowed to vote for an MP. No way will the general election go ahead as planned. There is no point in a short term parliament.

Whatever decision is arrived at, Labour will be very badly affected.

I know if I was Scotch i would certainly want independence. Also Scotch people are so left wing it is untrue. Why on earth would they want the Tory party running their affairs?

Any short term problems independence causes England will be far outweighed by the benefits of not having the threat of a future Labour government for many years. They will only become electable again if they move well over to the right. Socialism is dead in England and the sooner Labour realises it the better.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, well, well. Who'd have thought it?

http://electionsetc.com/2014/09/12/forecast-update-12-september-2014/#more-446

PS:

Latest opinion poll, Labour 7 points ahead according to You Gov. That's not the real lead of course. It's an outlier. Just like the ones that Mick flags up when we get outliers in the other direction showing the Tories in the lead. The real Lab lead is probably somewhere around 4-5 points. In other words, exactly where it was 12 months ago.

I suspect we'll have to wait for yet another outlier before Mick bothers to regale us with some figures. In the meantime, I'm assuming that he is frantically studying sampling theory, 95% confidence limits and typical margins of error in opinion polls, so as to make sure that he doesn't make an utter prick of himself next time he posts on this subject. But I'm probably wrong on that assumption.

Latest prediction from Steve Fisher's model by the way (not that i think it's worth a bucket of warm piss, but Mick did insist on bringing it up a few weeks back). There is now a higher balance of probability that Labour will be the largest party in Parliament  after May 2015. Actually, there's no great surprise in this. Fisher's model is predictaed on the supposed "fact" that Labour's support gets weaker as we get closer to an Election. But it fails to account for the unique setting in the Election, which is that the LDs have ceased to exist as a credible party, and are not there as a repository of Lab protest votes in the way that they have been for the past generation. So, the underlying principle of the model is incorrect. And as a result, as Labour's support fails to collapse in the way Fisher expected it to, his prediction inexorably leads to a week-by-week improvement in Labour's outcome in 2015. Pretty f***ing obvious to anyone who bothered to look into his algorithms.

[IC1967]

Look, you fail to realise the blindingly, bleeding obvious. Most of us UKippers will vote Tory when push comes to shove unless there is a good chance of us actually winning the seat, like in Ed Milliband's constituency for example. This will help the Tories no end and will severely damage Labour's chances. Add into the equation that the Scotch are going to vote for independence thereby losing Labour about 40 seats and there is no way on this Earth that Labour are going to win the election.

[River Don]

The best chance the Tories have is if Scotland votes for independence.

Otherwise. No chance. All the polls say so.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

Even Fisher is saying it:

"...yet another week has gone by without the Tories improving. Our model expects the Tories to make up ground and Labour to lose it, because that’s what the historical tendencies suggest. Every week that doesn’t happen, the forecast moves slightly away from the Tories and towards Labour."

Which is exactly what I was saying would happen 2 months ago.

As regards Scotland, there's some folk getting giddy because the polls changed direction, but there'll be some red faces around when the vote is won by "No" by 10% on Thursday.

The polls changed because, in the second debate (and I use the word lightly) Salmond bullied Darling into the admission (sic) that Scotland could keep the Pound after independence. That was a masterstroke of politics, because it seemed to neutralise the issue that the SNP had seen as the biggest stick that the No campaign had. So they went on a media offensive saying, "It's OK folks. Darling says we can keep the Pound. End of macro-economic uncertainty and worries."

Within days, the polls lurched towards YES. Predominantly among the poor and the young. They liked the idea that an independent Scotland would be more left leaning (no education fees, no prescription charges, no nasty nukes) but they had been scared about what the currency would be. Now here was Salmond trumpeting that they could keep the Pound[1].

The polls moved immediately. There was a 5-10% swing to YES.

And now, the consequences have started. Businesses and economists have woken up and explained that a Scotland that was reliant on another country for its currency, but promising to turn on the tap of Govt spending would be a catastrophe in the making. The IFS have pointed out that Scotland on the Pound would have FAR worse Austerity than the UK is currently planning. Businesses are openly saying that they are off oot the door if it's YES. And the move towards YES in the polls has hit the buffers.

When folk go into the poll booths next week, they know that a YES is a permanent choice. If they have got it wrong, there's no way back. A sufficient number of them will shite it at that thought and vote NO.


[1] Course, this is the Alex Salmond who wanted Scotland to join the Euro 10 years back. And who was praising Ireland and Iceland as role models for an independent Scotland just before The Crash. Give him his due. He's got some brass neck taking stances like that, making himself look a f**king dick, then coming back again. Remind you of anyone?

[River Don]

And yet.

I can't help supporting Scottish independence.

It would do something.

It would say centralisation toward London isn't inevitable.

It would say what about us and that would echo in Northern England.

It would be an almighty f*** you to the establishment.

I can't help but support them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

And that's what the SNP are playing on.

And it's all piss and wind b*llocks. Braveheart b*llocks.

If Scotland goes independent and yet keeps the pound, they have the worst of all worlds. If the Euro crisis has told us anything, it's that smaller countries in monetary unions CANNOT have fiscal independence. They have to follow the fiscal policy of the major partners. Or they get f**ked by the bond markets.

Look at Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland. They were all f**ked over by the bond markets beciase they ran their economy out of sync with the central core.

If Scotland does that, it will be heading towards bankruptcy before you can say "hoots mon". So it has to follow London's policy. But it now has no MPs at Westminster, so it has not influence over London's policy.

As I say, the very worst of all worlds. Responsibility without influence.And THAT is what the SNP are peddling to the poor f**kers north of the border. Without telling them that that's what they are voting for. Because they are so virulently anti-English, and so wrapped up in their Hollywood idea of Braveheart Scotland, they cannot see f**king sense.

But common sense will prevail. Enough people will shite it come Thursday morning.

[GM-MarkB]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29301287

Dirty Labour...lol

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

This IMO will be Labour's undoing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29301289

They oppose the cuts, slam them all the way through until it gets to policy time "oh erm, actually we won't reverse them if we win and will keep cutting".

That gives the Tories more chance IMO, it blows labour's arguments out of the water and will cost them appeal to some who see them as an alternative to cuts, if they aren't that, then just what are they?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

These issues are not set in stone for all eternity.

Balls was saying back in 2010 that cuts THEN were economically stupid. It was ALWAYS accepted that cuts would be necessary once the economy finally started growing. (Don't take my word, go and check what he said.)

There is no inconsistency whatsoever here. None at all.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Really BST?  Do you think the core labour voters will appreciate that?  Do you think the unions who are so opposed to cuts will appreciate that?

The past is the past, but for a party that has prided itself on being anti cuts, cost of living blah blah, to essentially say what they are doesn't seem consistent to me at all.

[IC1967]

I haven't laughed so much for ages. Get in. Yesterday in his last keynote conference speech before the general election, red Ed forgot to mention the economy, immigration and welfare!!! You couldn't make it up. The 3 biggest issues in voters minds and he forgets! His face was an absolute picture as he left the conference hall as he realised his monumental gaffe. This just shows what a loser he is and how irrelevant the economy, immigration and welfare are to him.

Do you lefties really want such an incompetent fool as the next prime minister? All he seemed bothered about was banging on about spending even more money on the NHS to bribe the electorate with money we haven't got. Well I've got news for him. The NHS gets more than enough money already. It is unbelievably inefficient and wasteful. He would do better promising to sort this problem out than just chucking more money away.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29335450

[IC1967]

Get in. Labour and the Tories are now neck and neck. This poll was done over the weekend. Wait until we see the ones after Dave's excellent speech yesterday.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/

[wing commander]

   In truth the one thing this shows is just how poor Labour really is..I actually agree that the tory's didn't cut deep enough but they inherited a runaway train and the fact that despite having to hurt people were they feel it most, people still cant turn towards labour a real bad sign for there chances..They chose the wrong brother of that I have no doubt..I think the torys have done a good job in the circumstances and when I listen to the shadow councillor he quite frankly scares me with his plans..Frankly I wouldn't let him run a sweet shop never mind the countrys finances..

[BillyStubbsTears]

What do you make of the recent run of YouGov polls over the past week.

Friday: Lab 37, Con 31
Sunday: Lab 36 Con 31
Tuesday: Lab 36 Con 31
Wednesday: Lab 36 Con 31
Thursday: Lab 38 Con 31

Mick. Do you know why you annoy me so much. It's not the thickness. If it were just that, I'd ignore you. It is your cavalier way with truth and facts. You are a Kitson. You post lies, half-truths and selected facts to paint a view of the world as you would like it to be. You are like the very, very worst of politicians or jounralists and I f**king despise that approach to life.

The facts on this particular matter are that, over the past month, there have been around 40 opinion polls. In two of them, Labour and the Tories were tied. In one, the Tories were 1% ahead. In the other 37 or so, Labour had a lead of between 1-8%. The average position is a Labour lead of around 3-5%. Which is more or less the same as it was a year ago.

Now, in any opinion polls, there is a margin of error, because no polling of a small sample perfectly picks up exactly what the entire country thinks.  The bigger the size of the poll, the smaller the margin of error should be. For example, in You Gov polls, with about 1800-2000 people sampled, they reckon that they at 95% certain that their figures are within +/3% of the actual average values throughout the country. Ashcroft's polls are smaller and they have a bigger +/-% spread. But let's take +/-3% as a general guide.

If the ACTUAL position is that Labour are 3-5% ahead on average, we should expect that some polls will give Labour an 8% lead, and some will put the two parties at neck-and-neck. And individual poll saying that Labour is 8% ahead does not, in itself, change the underlying actual picture. It's just a bit of noise superimposed on the actual situation. Ditto for a poll saying that the two parties are neck and neck.

Now, I KNOW that you know this. You are not so irredeemably thick as you make out. But you present this information as though it is definitive and as though it confirms that you are right.

I appreciate that you have a clinging need to be right about something, once in your life, since every f**king prediction you have ever made has been wrong. But this is not the way to do it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

WC

It shows nothing of the sort. Your response is precisely why I get so f**king angry at Mick. One poll on its own means the square root of cuck all.

Looking at polling averages, Labour have maintained a lead above the Tories for nearly 4 years. Its been as high as 10-12%. It's been as low as 1%. Where it is now is pretty much where it has been for the past 12 months. (It's actually a bit higher than it was 6 months ago and maybe a point lower than it was 12 months ago.)

[wing commander]

  I'm not talking about the poll Billy that is irrelevant..But even in Labour heartlands there is a general perception that Labour are not coming over as well as they should be..They should be doing a lot lot better than they are..Ed is a weak leader who doesn't connect with many of his own voters never mind floating ones..Whatever the politics that's a point you cant argue against surely???

[BillyStubbsTears]

WC.

I can't possibly disagree with that.

What I've been saying for 4 years now, though, is that there are remarkable parallels between EM and Thatcher, as Leader of the Opposition.

Both were seen as weirdos. Strange voice and mannerisms.
Both were up against weak Governments and weak economies and neither had the runaway poll lead that people said they ought to get.
Both were quietly pushing a line that the current economic system wasn't working and it was time for change (Thatcher saying it was time to rein the Unions in, EM saying it's time to make capitalism pay for the ordinary workers, not the high rollers.)
Neither really won over the country and the sceptics
Both were fighting against an incumbent PM who was far more popular and simply looked the part.

You don't have to be slick and polished to win a General Election. You don't have to totally convince everyone that you have the right ideas. You have to get just enough votes to have a chance to put your policies into action. I still think Miliband will do it. And then we'll see.

[wing commander]

  Well I certainly hope they don't but we will always disagree on that..lol Wouldn't you be tempted to have a blood letting now..New leader and just as important new shadow chancellor..Millibands last performance where he left out various important figures surely cant sit well with the partys faithfull.People have now forgotten what impact he was trying to get across..Ed balls comes over even worse..As a tory myself I hope those two stay as it will be our best chance of re-election which was always a tough ask after the much needed but unpopular austerity policys..but I'm sure you don't agree..lol