Looking grim for Labour

[BillyStubbsTears]

WC

As someone once said, I disagree with everything you say, but  I respect your views.

Getting rid of EM now would be madness. Labour are ahead in the polls. Line they've been for 4 years. The Tories are fighting on two fronts. T&S time for Labour to hold their nerve, not give the Tories breathing space.

As for Austerity being much needed... Well that was what Osborne convinced everyone. But it's voodoo economics. Always was. It was brilliant politics but it's been utterly disastrous for the economy. It turned a very bad situation into the worst recovery since the South Sea Bubble. And he claims it is a success. Bizarre what politicians and can get away with.

[bpoolrover]

Bst,as you seem to speak a lot of sense on politics recently labour and conservative and said what they will do if they win the election,now it's only recently I've started taking a interest in politics but it seems to me labour want to spend lots of money and not really say where it's coming from,they say they want to tax the rich more but surely if they tax them to much they will just take there money elsewhere and cost money and jobs rather than make money? Where the conservatives seem to be saying yes there will be more cuts and being honest about it, am I reading it wrong or just being slow?

[IC1967]

Bst,as you seem to speak a lot of sense on politics recently labour and conservative and said what they will do if they win the election,now it's only recently I've started taking a interest in politics but it seems to me labour want to spend lots of money and not really say where it's coming from,they say they want to tax the rich more but surely if they tax them to much they will just take there money elsewhere and cost money and jobs rather than make money? Where the conservatives seem to be saying yes there will be more cuts and being honest about it, am I reading it wrong or just being slow?

You've got it bang on apart from the bit about BST speaking a lot of sense on politics.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

Labour DOES fully cost its proposals.

That's not me saying that by the way. It's the UK's leading macroeconomic expert saying it. Prof Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford University, who is incredulous at Cameron's announcement yesterday.

See Wren-Lewis's blog here and his comment at 14:40
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/why-uncosted-tax-cuts-are-apparently.html?m=1

Ed Balls has repeatedly asked Osborne to allow the independent OBR to independently run an independent analysis of Labour's tax and spend policies for the 2015 election. Balls wants an independent assessment of whether Labour's plans are fully costed and if they add up.

Osborne has refused to allow this. I wonder why?

[bpoolrover]

Thank you bst will have a look when get in

[IC1967]

Bpool

Labour DOES fully cost its proposals.

That's not me saying that by the way. It's the UK's leading macroeconomic expert saying it. Prof Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford University, who is incredulous at Cameron's announcement yesterday.

See Wren-Lewis's blog here and his comment at 14:40
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/why-uncosted-tax-cuts-are-apparently.html?m=1

Ed Balls has repeatedly asked Osborne to allow the independent OBR to independently run an independent analysis of Labour's tax and spend policies for the 2015 election. Balls wants an independent assessment of whether Labour's plans are fully costed and if they add up.

Osborne has refused to allow this. I wonder why?

Hahaha. Where have they costed the deficit reduction they have promised? Another massive lie.

[IC1967]

Get in. It was only a matter of time. The Tories are now 2 points ahead of Labour. Latest Yougov poll shows  Tories on 36% and Labour on 34%. That's the last 2 Yougov polls showing a Tory lead. I'm so happy.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Get in. Even more good news. UKIP have a 9 point lead in the Rochester by-election. UKIP are on the march.

What to conclude from the above 2 polls? The right is well and truly on the march. No more of this wishy washy leftie nonsense.

[The Red Baron]

What to conclude from the above 2 polls? The right is well and truly on the march. No more of this wishy washy leftie nonsense.

Won't do "the right" any good if UKIP and the Tories split the right wing vote down the middle, though, will it?

[wilts rover]

So the week after their final coference before the election the Tories have come up with a barnstorming 2% lead...... you shove your money on there Michael, just like you did in the Scotch Independence Vote....

[IC1967]

So the week after their final coference before the election the Tories have come up with a barnstorming 2% lead...... you shove your money on there Michael, just like you did in the Scotch Independence Vote....

I've already had a large bet ages ago when the odds were much better than they are now. Don't forget that Labour have just had their conference as well so the 2% is a genuine lead.

[bobjimwilly]

What were the odds again, and do you have a copy of your betting slip that we can see before the general election? 

[IC1967]

I've decided it would be vulgar to show my betting slip and the huge amount of money I stand to win. I don't want to make people jealous.

[bobjimwilly]

I've decided it would be vulgar to show my betting slip and the huge amount of money I stand to win. I don't want to make people jealous.

IC1967; the joke that keeps on giving 

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Get in. It was only a matter of time. The Tories are now 2 points ahead of Labour. Latest Yougov poll shows  Tories on 36% and Labour on 34%. That's the last 2 Yougov polls showing a Tory lead. I'm so happy.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Get in. Even more good news. UKIP have a 9 point lead in the Rochester by-election. UKIP are on the march.

What to conclude from the above 2 polls? The right is well and truly on the march. No more of this wishy washy leftie nonsense.

Only one poll matters and that is in May 2015!

[jonrover]

I've decided it would be vulgar to show my betting slip and the huge amount of money I stand to win. I don't want to make people jealous.

PMSL...you're so full of shit!

[IC1967]

Get in. Another poll tonight from Lord Ashcroft showing a 2% lead for the Tories.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And the two Populous polls in the past 3 days that have had Labour 6 and 7 points ahead?

Only reading evidence that supports your world view does not make that evidence correct you cretin.

[IC1967]

I'm not impressed with the Populous methodology. Their polls are at a massive variance to all the other polls so can be discounted. Yougov's last 2 polls have show the Tories in front for the first time since 2012. The trend is unmistakable.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Alright cretin.

When, over the past 4 years, have Populus polls been "at massive variance to" (sic) all the other polls?

Take your time.

[IC1967]

Populus relies predominantly on phoning people. It is well known that the more intelligent amongst us (non Labour voters) have call blocking techniques employed so are not as easy to reach as your typical Labour voter. This means they are contacting more Labour voters and therefore show them to be doing better than they actually are, hence the large variance with other polls.

Yougov have a much more thorough, professional approach, hence a far more accurate representation of voting intentions.

http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/methodology/

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think it's fair to say the lead labour had is gone and at best you'd say they're level the two big parties.

There is more to be optimistic about if you favour the Tories, largely due to what I've said for the past 2-3 years - people can't see an Ed and Ed government, they're just not popular and that harms Labour at a time when they should be able to offer easy popular policies.  I thought they'd go down the wrong route of big spending etc and win.  They've gone what is the right way really of not doing that but it's not the popular way or the Left way really and that will harm them.

I also think UKIP will take a fair more of the usual labour fove than many think.  They have a lot of policies that appeal to the working classes in places like Doncaster and I think they could harm the Labour vote.  Of course it all comes down to the marginals.

[IC1967]

For Labour to be at best level at this stage is pathetic. They've got no chance of winning the election. Ed Milliband blew whatever chance they had with that useless speech at the party conference. Ever since then all kinds of people have been taking the piss out of him. This will continue up until election day. On the other hand Dave gave a brilliant speech. The contrast between the 2 leaders was there for all to see. Lots of labour big wigs are now openly criticising Ed after the recent polls showing the Tories in the lead. This will only get worse as time goes on.

A giveaway budget in March, another 7 months of improving economic news spells an easy victory for the Tories. I'm so happy.

There is still time to make some money on the outcome. The 2 to 1 I advised not that many months ago has gone but you can still get evens.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

It's actually impossible to say what's happening with the polls at the moment. There have been too few since the Tory conference to tell whether the movement seen in the YouGov polls is genuine movement or simply a co-incidental run of margins of error at the extremes. Statistically speaking, the recent three YG polls are entirely consistent with an underlying position of Lab 35-36%, Con32-33% which is where they were BEFORE the conferences and where they have been for months.

Those underlying figures would also fit with the two recent Populus polls (Lab 37%, Con 30-31%).

The Ashcroft polls have a much smaller sample and therefore a higher margin of error. There have also been some very strange variations in previous Ashcroft polls, with wild variations from one to another.

That's the thing with polling - there is a natural, statistical margin of error around the actual value. Only a fool draws conclusions from one or two polls. Only a congenital idiot (not you I'm aiming this at by the way) ignores polls that are giving very different results from others.

When other polling companies are out, and more YG polls are out, we'll have a better idea about the actual position.

[IC1967]

Bpool

Labour DOES fully cost its proposals.

That's not me saying that by the way. It's the UK's leading macroeconomic expert saying it. Prof Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford University, who is incredulous at Cameron's announcement yesterday.

See Wren-Lewis's blog here and his comment at 14:40
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/why-uncosted-tax-cuts-are-apparently.html?m=1

Ed Balls has repeatedly asked Osborne to allow the independent OBR to independently run an independent analysis of Labour's tax and spend policies for the 2015 election. Balls wants an independent assessment of whether Labour's plans are fully costed and if they add up.

Osborne has refused to allow this. I wonder why?

Hahaha. Where have they costed the deficit reduction they have promised? Another massive lie.

We are still waiting for your answer to yet another monumental lie.

All we know so far is that he will hold child benefit increases for the first 2 years at 1% saving £400m. He's going to cut minister's pay by 5% saving £1m per annum. He's going to remove the winter fuel allowance from higher rate taxpayers. This won't save anything as the cost of doing it will be the same as any money saved. He's also going to increase the top rate of tax to 50%. This will actually lose money as it is well known that once you go over 45% people start to take measures to avoid tax.

So that's it. An extremely tiny fraction of the deficit. Not worth bothering with. No wonder he lacks any credibility. He also plans to exempt capital spending from his 'savage' cuts to allow him to carry on borrowing. What a plonker.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53220450-41af-11e4-b98f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3FS62iGkd

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

Go and read what I wrote. It wasn't MY opinion. An Oxford professor of macro-economics states that Labor have always costed their proposals since the time of John Smith in 1992.

Ed Balls has repeatedly asked Osborne to allow the OBR to check Labour's (and other parties') figures PRECISELY so that they can't be used as a political football in the election campaign. Osborne has repeatedly refused to allow this PRECISELY because he wants to peddle the lie that Labour's numbers don't add up, and because he wants to announce headline-grabbing but totally uncosted tax cuts.

I expect that Labour will do what it did before the last election, which is to use the independent IFS to cost its proposals. But that won't stop d**kheads claiming that they don't add up.

[IC1967]

Mick

Go and read what I wrote. It wasn't MY opinion. An Oxford professor of macro-economics states that Labor have always costed their proposals since the time of John Smith in 1992.

Ed Balls has repeatedly asked Osborne to allow the OBR to check Labour's (and other parties') figures PRECISELY so that they can't be used as a political football in the election campaign. Osborne has repeatedly refused to allow this PRECISELY because he wants to peddle the lie that Labour's numbers don't add up, and because he wants to announce headline-grabbing but totally uncosted tax cuts.

I expect that Labour will do what it did before the last election, which is to use the independent IFS to cost its proposals. But that won't stop d**kheads claiming that they don't add up.

You should have said 'spending' proposals. For Labour to have any credibility they have to say what their proposals are for eliminating the deficit and reducing the national debt. There is absolutely no point in saying how you are going to fund spending on one hand without saying how you are going to cut public spending. I've listed the measures he's stated to reduce the deficit and they aren't worth the paper they are written on. He thinks we are all stupid and unfortunately most Labour voters fall for his spin because they can't do basic maths. There is absolutely no point in Milliband saying he's going to spend £2bn on the health service funded by a mansion tax when the deficit is still way out of control.

The OBR isn't set up to do what Balls wants. More spin.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

You regale us with your cretinous inability to see sense so often, that I really shouldn't be surprised, but I regularly am. For someone to expend so much time and effort with so little thought applied is quite spectacularly depressing.

Labour's ENTIRE package was audited by the IFS last time. That includes full fiscal projections. (You know. Like the ones that Gideon set out last time, that stated that he would eliminate the structural deficit by 2015. How the f**k he has the gall to criticise others I've no idea when his projections have proved to be out by a cumulative amount that is WAY over £100bn.)

Anyway, I expect that Labour's fiscal plans will have to be audited by the IFS this time, given that Gideon refuses to allow the OBR to do the job. And I also expect that d**kheads will continue to ignore this and believe what they want. You are doing a sterling job of proving that prediction already.

[IC1967]

What is cretinous is the way you try to con people into thinking that Labour's plans for the next election are fiscally credible. During his keynote speech he tried to con the gullible into thinking that his 'crackdown' on child benefit and other half measures were going to get us on the path to removing the deficit and repaying the national debt. As I've already shown he is barely scratching the surface. If he isn't going to tell us how he's going to tackle the deficit at his last major speech before the election then when is he going to tell us?

So I'd thank you to stop trying to con people into thinking Labour have come up with a credible plan to tackle the deficit. They haven't. We all know the reason. Balls doesn't want to tell the public the truth about the further savage cuts and tax rises to come.

At least the Tories have said there will be no tax rises (indeed there will be cuts). They are going to hammer the poor and cut public spending savagely. Balls should admit he's going to savagely cut public spending and put up taxes (and not just for the wealthy). If he's not going to cut the welfare bill then tax rises are his only option.

[bpoolrover]

Could I ask u both a question billy and mick,your both obviously very passionate about this,what I'm finding is if you vote labour or conservative no 1 ever has anything good to say about the other party and also nothing bad to say about thier own party so my question is could either of you do that? Feel free of course to ignore my question I'm just intrigued?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BPool

Politics is about what your core beliefs are. It's about your world view. It's about your moral stance.

That's the reason I get passionate about it. I was born into a deeply political family. My grandad did 52 years at the pit. He was on the picket line in the General Strike in 1926, as a 14 year old, fighting against a Tory Government that imposed vicious austerity on the working class to help pay the bills of the  First World War. He did an 8 hour shift, then did 2 hours in the NUM union box, helping lads who were being done over by the management get what they deserved. He lived and breathed politics,  I've never met a better role model in my life. My own passion for politics comes from that example. He was a man who sweat blood to provide for his family and better himself. But he never once thought that bettering himself meant pulling the ladder up behind him.

He believed in a collective approach. That we're better when everyone is better. That if I am well off but you are poor, it diminishes my own existence.

That is what underpins my political beliefs. I've been incredibly fortunate to have him as a model. His hard work helped to set up my dad, and through him, for me to be the first person in my family to go to University, get a PhD and become the director of a successful company.

I'd be better off supporting the Tories. But that would mean buying into an ideology that believes that we're all individuals, and our responsibility is to get on as best we can, look after our immediate friends and family and leave everyone else to look after theirs.

That's the crucial difference between Right and Left. The Right believe that we're all individuals who look after ourselves. The Left believe that we need to sacrifice a bit of our individual side to support everyone else. That is why Labour generally want higher taxes and the Tories want lower ones.

Both approaches have their merits. Both have their problems.

I lean to the Left for a very simple reason. I've been lucky to have the background that I've had. But that's not down to ME. It's down to luck. I could have been born to an alcoholic child beater who didn't have a book in the house and never took me to school. That wouldn't have been my fault. So, if I've been successful, I feel that I have a responsibility to put something back in. It's not all been down to me, so the rewards shouldn't all come to me. They should be shared out. So I'm happy to pay taxes that go into the general pot. That pay for decent schools, decent houses, decent chances for people who haven't had the luck to be able to pay for them themselves.

Simple really.


PS: That's why I f**king well explode when I see Cameron putting on his simpering face and announcing that the next Tory Government will reduces taxes in a way that helps the low paid, when the truth is that they'd give me a tax cut of £2000 when  they'd give to someone with 2 kids earning £300/week a tax cut of £500, then remove £485 in benefits.

It'd be grand for me. But it is f**king disgusting morality.