Scotland

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Interesting one...

[River Don]

I reckon they'll narrowly vote to stay in.

But now even that's going to cause all sorts of upheaval since the politicians have decided they're basically going to change the UK constitution to accommodate Scotland. Expect Wales and N Ireland to demand more control and the reemergence of regional assemblies in England and then there will be demands to reassess how everything works in Westminster.

And even after all that because the Scottish vote is likely to be close, the independence campaign won't take too much of a knock.

We might discover we've already started down a slow path to an eventual break-up.

[RobTheRover]

If all the infrastructure was in place to do it and everything had been thought through and answers in place, I would say it would be a go-er. 

It isn't anything like that though.  The SNP seem to have a "make it up as you go along" attitude.  On that basis, I'm struggling to see how any Scot could possibly vote Yes (other than they are totally fed up with Westminster and the Scottish Parliament and just want a change, any change).

Interesting this morning that more and more businesses are now coming out with statements of either pulling out of Scotland or announcing the likelihood of diverging price tariffs.  The business sector has been very quiet for months on this, almost sitting on the fence.  Now it looks like its going to be a close vote (based on very limited data from small sample polls) they are starting to pin their colours to the mast.

I was in a meeting with 2 major energy suppliers yesterday and the issue of an independent Scotland was discussed.  I hadn't realised just how much of the UK's electricity generation happens on Scottish soil (or waters), and the interconnector between Scotland and England/Wales which is currently unrestricted will have standard international restrictions applied to it should they go it alone.  That would have some impact on supply capacity for the rest of the UK, and Scotland could have more juice than it knows what to do with, which could make electricity tariff pricing in Scotland drop through the floor.

[RedJ]

They're wanting to start the country up with something like £200m aren't they?

I read it'll cost about £180m just to sort out the police force.

[GM-MarkB]

Would that have an impact on their income though Rob ? If we all stop using 'Scottish' Power and switch to English generators, surely English tarrifs would come down and the Scots would have a drop in income...or is my theory too simple to be correct

[not on facebook]

Since mcindoe no longer plays for rovers Here is too the  Jocks
Voting for the Yes vote

If it falls This time it will come back again ,but they would have learnt
From Their mistakes and have a far better sounding footing

[DRNaith]

I think they'll go for it, i.e. the jocks will vote in favour, BUT I think the process will fall apart before it goes through.

[IC1967]

It's a no brainer. Of course they should vote for independence. Even if they don't this time it will eventually come in as little as 5 years so they may as well go for it now. If they don't they will only be delaying the inevitable. As the old who are in the No camp die out then gradually  more and more of the population will be in the Yes camp.

Anyone that is Scotch though should ask themselves this question. Why on earth would you want to be ruled from London by a Tory government when you only have 1 Tory MP in the country? It is completely ridiculous.

Go for it you Scotch. You'll also be doing us all a favour in England by totally scuppering any chance Labour have of winning the general election.

[River Don]

If they do vote for it and they have the democratic mandate, then the government in London is going to have to find a way to accommodate them.

I think Salmond was always right to suggest the government are bluffing about not sharing the currency. The banks in England can't afford to see Scotland crippled, they're already in a precarious state. That's why we had to bail out Ireland, to save the banks.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

We can cope without it financially they will suffer more by not yielding to Westminster on currency.

I think what gets me is basing anything on existing values. Eg they state that they give a lot of contribution to the economy compared to the spend in Scotland. But that doesn't filter in all the centralised costs that stay in England. They'll have those costs after independence and not a huge amount of revenue either.

Don't even start on oil - it's a crazy idea that this will support them forever.

[River Don]

Oil?

If they stay in the union, what happens when the oil runs down? We're just going to give them a lot of handouts to make up for their loss?

Not likely, either way when it happens the loss of the oil revenue is a huge blow for Scotland.

[Wild Rover]

If its a yes, who is likely to fund Hospitals, Schools, Infrastructure, Police etc in the near future. Salmond says if Ireland can do it, so can Scotland. He seems to forget that "Bail Out" and austerity that followed, along with highest taxes in Europe.

Personally believe it will be 60/40 against at end.

[RedJ]

It'll be more like 52/48 either way, I imagine.

[Rios]

It's a tough choice - I couldn't bring myself to vote for either Cameron or Salmond, both are equally unlikeable in their own unique way!

The "oil" has been well and truly sold to a large percentage of the Scottish population and they really believe that it will make them the Saudi Arabia of Europe.  My Dad and I had a heated debate about it as he's swapped positions and is now voting yes solely because of the oil!

[River Don]

Are they planning to do a Norway and create a sovereign wealth fund with the oil revenue to help protect the Scottish economy for the future? If they are I haven't seen much reported about it. It all seems to be about using it to improve the Scottish public services.

[not on facebook]

If its a yes, who is likely to fund Hospitals, Schools, Infrastructure, Police etc in the near future. Salmond says if Ireland can do it, so can Scotland. He seems to forget that "Bail Out" and austerity that followed, along with highest taxes in Europe.



Personally believe it will be 60/40 against at end.

How about an Hedge fund

[Highland Rover]

I've already voted NO , but it's going to be mighty close . Still looks like a generational thing , my age group 55+ looking to stay in the Union with concerns over pensions , health care etc while the younger generation really want to give it a go .
Situation changing daily , this morning RBS said they would re-locate to London , John Lewis suggesting higher retail prices .
So many questions have not been really answered by both sides....currency , passports , defence to list a few .

Glad I'll be in New York on the 18th !!

[Wild Rover]

Back to the "Ireland / Scotland " comparison. Ireland has 6.5 million residents, Scotland 5.25 million, so I would think more tax payers. OK here there is no council tax and rates ( but its on horizon ), so cant see how Scotland can work it.

[River Don]

According to Wikipedia, Ireland has 4.58 mil.

[Rios]

More people live in Greater London than either country...

[River Don]

More people live in Greater London than either country...

I would say that centralisation is a big part of the problem. The SE has grown and remained resolutely Tory, their instinct is to protect the city, protect the rich, invest in London more centralisation and so it goes on. The Scots start voting for only alternative until there are only Labour MPs left. It has little effect so they get sick of the UK start voting to break away altogether and choose the SNP.

[Wild Rover]

According to Wikipedia, Ireland has 4.58 mil.

Sorry RD that's correct, I took data from CSO here, didn't realise it was "Inclusive" of NI.
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/north-south-spreadsheets/Census,2011,-,Ireland,and,Northern,Ireland,Press,Release.pdf

Which makes my previous statement a load of Balls. As is usual with me.

[not on facebook]

How on earth can they prevent anyone in armed forces who is scotish from not voting unless they have an address in Scotland

That is fcuking shocking.

You put Your life on the line for thr government and Nation ,because you are based in England or germany or whatever other country you Cant vote.

What what the bloke in the forces thinks When he leaves the army navy or airforce and wants to return back to Scotland ....

Surely they should have a say

[The Red Baron]

I think probably a narrow NO this time. But by giving them "Devo-Max" the three main Westminster parties have ensured that there will be another vote within the next ten years and the answer will be YES. They've also given the SNP the kiss of life by doing so as Salmond will claim he's won.

[Mr1Croft]

I possibly think it will be very damn close but I have a funny feeling they will vote for independence.

What will be interesting is if Cameron resigns over it; the British Prime Minister who saw the breakup of a union that lasted over 3 centuries in a referendum his government accepted, on his terms and lost. Surely a vote of no confidence would follow?

I would hope they vote against but a little part of me is anxious to see how we would all cope if it is a yes result.

[IC1967]

All the momentum is with Yes. I expect the vote to be 55/45 in favour of Yes. I have had a hefty wager on Yes winning and I'm counting my money already.

It just shows how desperate the No campaign are with Dave using the 'f' word yesterday. If it is a No the young will resent the older more cautious generation who are only bothered about protecting their pensions and benefits.

[RobTheRover]

Would that have an impact on their income though Rob ? If we all stop using 'Scottish' Power and switch to English generators, surely English tarrifs would come down and the Scots would have a drop in income...or is my theory too simple to be correct

A lot of the generation in Scotland is wind or hydro sourced.  In England we have a plethora of coal (which will begin decommissioning next year as part of the greenhouse gas reductions agreed post-Kyoto), natural gas, biomass and nuclear.  To keep the coal fired plant running requires "scrubbers" to remove the sulphur content, which is very expensive - so something the generators arent too keen to do.  Cheaper to shut the facility, or convert to biomass (less output) or gas (more expensive).  Gas attracts lower subsidies so a lot of power stations which were scheduled for conversion are still burning coal as the generation still makes a shedload of cash.  All the nuclear facilities are beyond their planned end of life, although most are now owned by EDF and they do appear to be investing in them to keep them operational.  Since EDF took them, their performace has been excellent, with very few breakdowns.  The two which have been taken off-line recently were due to faults found through thorough inspection, which is kind of reassuring actually.

If the flow of abundant green electricity from Scotland is restricted, then the balance of the supply/demand process changes for the rest of the UK.  Of course, additional generation will pick up the shortfall.  Some gas fired power stations were mothballed a few years ago due to the low subsidies on gas so the generators focussed on coal to make more money, so these could come back into service.  Wind farms are also popping up all over, but this is still an expensive way to generate electricity.  We don't have the climate for large scale solar to pick up the shortfall (ignoring micro-generation, which is still something which most folks should think about), so the options are both limited and expensive.

First quarter of next year will see EMR begin (Electricity Market Reform) which will place certain levies on consumers to fill a pot of cash to invest again in new nuclear facilities, but these wont be on-stream for another 10 years.  The Government has told the industry in no uncertain terms that the lights cannot go out, but the cost of running those lights are the key concern right now.  EMR looks like adding around £15 per MWh to wholesale electricity prices (currently around £42 per MWh).  Guess who will be required to pick that up!

[IC1967]

So despite the best efforts of the No campaign this week, the polls show things are still neck and neck. The No campaigners have offered Devo Max, got their banker friends to say they will relocate, got their supermarket friends to say prices will rise etc.etc. and the Yes vote has totally held up.

The No campaign have no more bullets left to fire. Expect the Yes campaign to now gradually pull away and win the vote quite comfortably. Trust me. I know what I'm talking about.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-12/scottish-independence-race-tightens-in-final-days-in-icm-poll

[RedJ]

Aye, just like Oscar would have his bail revoked eh?

[Orlandokarla]

It's like a national IQ test for Scotland.
The results will be clearly shown in the form of the yes/no%.

If the BBC shows Braveheart the night before, the No vote is doomed. 

Seriously though, if they do go ahead and separate, I hope we wash our hands of them entirely, and leave them to it, for better or for worse.
I expect them to vote yes, and I expect the British tax payer to be forced to subsidise Scotland in one way or another, for the forseable future.