Scotland

[RedRover45]

I agree, I really don't want Scotland to leave because it makes for a stronger UK and that has got to be good on a world stage particularly in a political and economic sense.
However, if they are stupid enough to think they can be self-sufficient financially without the help of London, let them get on with it. On the understanding there will be no subsidy EVER again from the UK.
Scotland will be bankrupt in my opinion within 5 years. They are another economic Greece waiting to happen.
Good luck Scotland, your fate is in your own hands.

[IC1967]

I hope they go for it and fully expect it to be a disaster for them. Any country that is run by left wingers always ends up failing. They all believe in borrow and spend and sod the long term consequences.

[Axo]

A spokesman for Yes Scotland said: "The pound is Scotland's currency every bit as much as the rest of the UK's, and it will remain our currency after independence."

Which parts of 'independence' do Scotland want? Not a new currency. Not a new head of state. Not their own armed forces. Not their own Television Channels.

I am genuinely confused about this notion of independence, because other than in fiscal policy and having their own team at The Olympics, it all seems long on tub-thumping and 'independence-lite' on actually going their own way.

[LincsRover]

They will narrowly vote no, but a shrewd move by Salmond - the no vote will be bought by our gutless politicians for increased devolution and many more powers for the Scottish parliament. Scotland already get more per head from the uk government for health and education, subsidised by the rest of the uk, and they'll be even better off after this vote.

Brilliant on the part of the SNP, they can't lose, independence or more devolution? The only losers are the rest of us who have to pay for it. 

Happy days!

 

[IC1967]

The Scotch will vote yes. There are many reasons but one of the most important ones is that they will not want a Tory government after the next election running their affairs. The Scotch aren't daft. They know who will win the next election.

[IC1967]

Yes are now 8 points ahead. 54% to 46%. What did I tell you.

ttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2754895/Put-Scottish-flag-window-save-union-As-confusion-rages-shock-poll-putting-Yes-vote-EIGHT-points-ahead-PM-makes-desperate-plea.html

[RobTheRover]

If you know anything about statistics then you know these polls are worthless. Small sample size and dubious normalisation factors. Let's see what happens next week before you start crowing,  troll.

[LincsRover]

The Scotch will vote yes. There are many reasons but one of the most important ones is that they will not want a Tory government after the next election running their affairs. [/i][/b]The Scotch aren't daft. They know who will win the next election.

I'm totally with them on that! 

[IC1967]

All you lefties must be panicking. Once you lose the Scotch MP's, Labour will have no chance of forming a government. Love it. I'm so happy. The Tories and UKIP will then be able to implement some extreme right wing policies and get the country sorted. Expect the following to happen.

1) Withdrawal from the EU.
2) Control of immigration.
3) Scroungers sorted out.
4) National debt sorted.
5) NHS privatised.

I can't wait.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Summary of independence polls from the excellent (and impartial, although he's a member of the Tory party) Anthony Wells of You Gov.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8984

With what I assume are all Sunday’s Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don’t knows, the Yes shares in the 8 different companies/methods are:
ICM (online) 54%
Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 47%
Survation (online) 47%
Survation (phone) 46%

Guess which one our resident idiot chooses to mention. That's the thing about idiots. They assume everyone else is as irredeemable thick as they are themselves.

[moses]

Here's a little prophecy for you.
Narrow No victory.
Major problems at polling booths when voters (especially first time ones) turn up at the last minute and then can't get their vote in before the closing time.

[Muttley]

Here's a little prophecy for you.
Narrow No victory.
Major problems at polling booths when voters (especially first time ones) turn up at the last minute and then can't get their vote in before the closing time.

I think I heard that if you're in the queue at closing time (the polling station, not the pub) then you will be allowed to cast your vote.

[The Red Baron]

Summary of independence polls from the excellent (and impartial, although he's a member of the Tory party) Anthony Wells of You Gov.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8984

With what I assume are all Sunday’s Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don’t knows, the Yes shares in the 8 different companies/methods are:
ICM (online) 54%
Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 47%
Survation (online) 47%
Survation (phone) 46%

Guess which one our resident idiot chooses to mention. That's the thing about idiots. They assume everyone else is as irredeemable thick as they are themselves.

Using that logic, though, Billy, the three main party leaders and Gordon Brown are idiots for giving out huge "Devo-Max" concessions on the basis of one poll (the YouGov one last week that showed YES in the lead).

Truth is, most are within the margin of error and it really is too close to call. Yes, it is wrong to use one poll, which is probably an outlier, to call it one way or the other, but it really could go either way. My gut feeling is that the YES campaign has now peaked and most of the undecideds will vote NO or abstain.

(And by the way I'm not calling those esteemed men idiots- although I'll make an exception in the case of Cleggy- because I dare say they had access to private polling that pointed in the same direction as that YouGov poll. Although I think "Devo-Max" carries with it the seeds of a future vote on independence.)

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

The YES campaigned developed a totally unexpected momentum after the second debate. The sudden lurch from NO to YES seems to have been due to Salmond forcing Darling to "admit" (sic) that an independent Scotland could use the pound even without a formal currency union.

That was cretinous. Of COURSE Scotland could use the Pound, just like it could use the Dollar, the Rouble or South Sea Island conch shells if it wanted. There was no "concession" made. Yet Salmond, that most mendacious of all politicians, crowed "There you have it folks. The NO campaign say that you CAN keep the pound."

The point is, of course, that it would be catastrophic for Scotland to keep the pound after independence. Because they would have all the problems that Ireland, Portugal Spain , Italy and Greece  had in the Euro. But that's a logical argument. Salmond tapped into an emotional one during and after that debate, and he developed a dangerous momentum that might have seen Scotland ignorantly dashing into an abyss (and quite possibly taking us with them).

The stakes were very high. It's all very well with hindsight saying that the Westminster leaders should have held their nerve. You're saying that with the hindsight of having seen the momentum suddenly stopped (and probably reversed) FOLLOWING the Westminster response. If they hadn't made that response, we could well be looking at an unstoppable YES bandwagon.

[The Red Baron]

You won't find any argument from me in your assessment of Salmond, a devotee of the "Big Lie" school of politics if ever there was one. But the NO campaign knew exactly what he was like and have signally failed to neutralise him. Alistair Darling may talk sense most of the time, but his message isn't getting across, most crucially to Labour voters who seem to be the ones who have swung behind the YES campaign.

The mistake was not to make Gordon Brown the figurehead of the Better Together campaign. Now I think he was a poor Chancellor and a worse Prime Minister, but he remains popular with Labour voters in Scotland and that's why he's been wheeled out in the last few weeks. Yes, Brown would have put the backs of the Tories and Lib Dems up, but they were going to back the NO campaign come what may. In any case, Cameron is prepared to be rude about his own party when needs must, as he showed last week!

The only argument for offering "Devo-Max" now is to buy time. Maybe the Westminster leaders have concluded that Scotland is a lost cause and that in five years or so the contingency plans will be in place that make independence a softer landing for the RUK (and maybe Scotland too.) Salmond will present this as a victory for him and the Nats even if they lose the vote on Thursday. George Galloway doesn't get much right, but he was correct when he said that the NO campaign needed to achieve a crushing victory so that Independence was off the table for a generation at least. We can be pretty certain that's not going to happen.

So I'll predict a narrow NO on Thursday, followed by much crowing by Salmond and then bickering over the deal they eventually get offered, which will colour the General Election campaign next year and help the Nats take some seats off Labour. Then a crushing victory for the Nats in the next Scottish elections and a demand for another referendum.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

To be honest, I thought the NO campaign had been consummate until the second debate. They had kept a steady 12-15% lead and had played Project Fear perfectly. They had got across the fact that there were terrible uncertainties in Independence. The intelligent person in me would have liked to see a more rational debate, but that's pie in the sky. The fact that there was a massive lurch to YES after a nothing issue in a debate that Salmond was able to twist as some sort of vindication shows how shallow the electorate's understanding is.

As for Darling, it's widely accepted that he took Salmond apart in the first debate (which I didn't see, but which I understand was civil and rational). The second debate was more like a Govan pub brawl and Darling was woeful.   

[IC1967]

The No campaign fired all their bullets last week. They even used the nuclear option of giving the Scotch independence by the back door via Devo Max. Despite all this ICM find the Yes campaign has pulled well clear.

It's obvious the momentum is with them. It stalled last week due to the No campaign indulging in disgraceful scaremongering. The No campaign have nothing else to offer.

Get your money on a Yes vote. The bookies have got that one badly wrong and there is easy money to be made.

[LincsRover]

So you know better than the bookies because they throw their money away so easily - that's why Messrs Hill and Ladbrokes are so skint! F*ck me! I've been in the wrong job for the last 30 years, I should have been a punter cos bookmakers are generous charitable fellows.

 

[IC1967]

So you know better than the bookies because they throw their money away so easily - that's why Messrs Hill and Ladbrokes are so skint! F*ck me! I've been in the wrong job for the last 30 years, I should have been a punter cos bookmakers are generous charitable fellows.

 

As a professional gambler I can tell you that the bookies quite often get it wrong. They set their odds depending on the weight of money not on looking in a crystal ball and predicting the future. There has been so much money on No winning that they are now taking their profits and keeping the No odds skinny. Means nothing in terms of the outcome of the vote. They are hoping that because the odds give the impression that No are certain to win this will put people off backing a Yes vote.

Well it doesn't put me off. I'll be taking them to the cleaners.

[BillyStubbsTears]

How many posts will need editing come next Friday morning...?

[LincsRover]

So you know better than the bookies because they throw their money away so easily - that's why Messrs Hill and Ladbrokes are so skint! F*ck me! I've been in the wrong job for the last 30 years, I should have been a punter cos bookmakers are generous charitable fellows.

 

As a professional gambler I can tell you that the bookies quite often get it wrong. They set their odds depending on the weight of money not on looking in a crystal ball and predicting the future. There has been so much money on No winning that they are now taking their profits and keeping the No odds skinny. Means nothing in terms of the outcome of the vote. They are hoping that because the odds give the impression that No are certain to win this will put people off backing a Yes vote.

Well it doesn't put me off. I'll be taking them to the cleaners.

They don't just set their odds on weight of money. As the grandson of a bookie I know that they have researchers that would shame sky and the BBC (my grandad employed successful BBC researchers, many of whom went into parliament as parliamentary researchers) and don't risk money - they take a highly professional approach and take few risks. The professional gamblers I know are either extremely good at interpreting form and study longer than a PhD student or are in the know. None of them would venture into politics without having done a great deal of research and certainly wouldn't be giving odds against if there was the remotest possibility of a yes vote. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, but let's wait and see before we start getting all billy big b*ll*cks eh?!

Oh, and none of them would post on a public forum with their views - their opinions are there to make or lose money - it's their job, they certainly don't share them with TLO us!

 

[LincsRover]

Odds checker odds on Scottish referendum

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

All those poor deluded bookies giving cash away at 3/1 and 7/2? If only they knew you were so much smarter than them! Idiots!

 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Lincs

Careful. You're talking to someone who won several thousand on a 50/1 shot on the National...

[LincsRover]

Ah yes BST, thanks for the reminder, I nearly made a fool of myself there! Oh well, we all have opinions, let's wait and see - I hope he's not wrong because a professional gambler needs to pay the mortgage as well, and I hate to see homeless gamblers!

 

[IC1967]

I'll be having the last laugh. I'm going to make thousands. You've been advised.

[RedJ]

Like you did on the National, eh?

[Dagenham Rover]

So if the jocks bugger off are we taking the cross of St Andrew out of the Union Jack?

[Orlandokarla]

So if the jocks bugger off are we taking the cross of St Andrew out of the Union Jack?

I wouldn't. The Union flag is part of our culture, and I'll be damned if I'll be having people who don't want to be a part of it anymore dictate our national symbol.

Unless we actively want to wash our hands of them completely, that is. I could see an argument for that.

[wilts rover]

Err, if there isn't a union any more then we wont require a Union Flag?

[RedJ]

Err, if there isn't a union any more then we wont require a Union Flag?

Are Northern Ireland not part of the Union then?...