Vlad Putin

[Mike_F]

Yeah, I get that Bob. It's a very difficult one to sort out. Putin could, even now, be persuaded to put in place a plan to step aside with his reputation amongst the Russian populace as a strong and successful leader intact. He's effectively at the top of his game right now. The trouble is, he evidently wants more. It's the addictive power and ego cycle in full flow. He's on the fast track to a dictatorship and they never end well. It's largely up to him how he wants history to remember him. If I was a senior UK politician or diplomat I would be trying my damnedest to massage his ego into a position of accomplishment to encourage him that the time is right to move on with a respectable legacy in the eyes of the Russian people.

[BobG]

It's about the only half way sensible plan I've heard Mike. But will it work? We have an example right in front of our own eyes of how difficult it is to give up even a little power. How much harder when you are the idol of an entire country? This has been coming for quite a while. Think back to Ingushetia & Georgia for example. He's not had even a set back so far. Instead he's had unbroken success. Would you leave now for a 'legacy'? I know I wouldn't.

I can't makemy mindu p whether my plan would be to shun him, and Russia, in every single sphere I could think of, or, to withdraw a lot of the current sanctions in the hope that he doesn't then need another foreign adventure. Probably go with the first I guess though as the second only postpones the problem. Mind you, postponement now is a bit like 1938 again isn't it? It's a tough one all right.

Bob

[Sprotyrover]

The Baltic States are tiny little nothing's to the Russians, their land was wrestled from out the hands of great world powers and mighty military empires,the Swedes,the Tartars, the Crimea Tartars,the Ottomans.
The history of their conflict with the latter two explains the current thinking of the Russian People.
Look at a time map of the expansion of Russia! They weren't faced with Stone Age natives armed with spears and leather shields.
Peters Russia had 4 million souls, the Ottomans 25 million, the Ottomans could field a dozen armies of a 100 thousand men at any one time.
The Crimea Tartars used to raid en masse into the Geographical area know as the Ukraine,every year they would capture tens of thousands of Slav people and sell them into slavery via the Slave port of Caffa.

The Ukrainians didn't free themselves of the Tartar slave Yoke, the Russians did that.
Putin will always have 100% backing of the Russian people with regards to supporting Orthodox Slavs living in the Ukraine.
Once folks get a grasp of that concept we can leave em to it!

[Colemans Left Hook]

this is worth a read to see other pieces in the world jigsaw


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-04/guest-post-us-going-war-syria-over-natural-gas-pipeline

it was posted in April 2013

funny how they never shelled Donest on the wednesday when they played Bayern Munich waited til thursday ....    now what job has that middle aged woman from  former East Germany got ???? 

[bpoolrover]

Problem is sproty if you just leave them to it what next,if someone tries takeover France do we just leave them 2? Where does it end?

[Sprotyrover]

Vlad Putin is not an enemy of the British people,If we want a war lets get into one that is doing us harm and which we can win,in Syria!

[glosterred]

Vlad Putin is not an enemy of the British people,If we want a war lets get into one that is doing us harm and which we can win,in Syria!

If you think that we can win the ongoing war in Syria, your deluded, that is a no win for anyone, least of all the Syrians

[BobG]

Pretty deluded about Putin too tbh. I don't think any of the likely parties that will form the next Government have expressed an interest in reverting to 'splendid isolation' as a sensible foreign policy.

You're on the wrong bearing Sproty.

BobG

[Sprotyrover]

They did that when they slashed the defence budget.

As for nor doing anything about ISIS I am afraid it is you who is deluded,they ain't gonna go away with a good arse kicking.
How many british subjects has Putin had beheaded?
How many POW's has he immolated?.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

Whatever you think about his politics[1] Putin is very likely to play dangerous games with members of NATO over the next year or so. You may think he is no DIRECT threat to us in the UK, but if he starts covert military action against the Baltics, then by definition, he is our enemy and we will be bound by treaty to take military action.

And at that point, ISIS will feel like an ant bite on your back compared to sticking your genitalia in a hornets' nest.

Or, NATO turns a blind eye. In which case we're in for a VERY interesting 21st century

[Dutch Uncle]

Article V is the cornerstone of NATO - always has been and always will be. It is the main reason new members want to join. Unfortunately Russia sees the countries it used to own either directly or as puppeteers join the hated enemy. A crucial time ahead of us and as in the depths of the Cold War we are potentially a single mistake or error away from something catastrophic.

Jut to add a facetious but factual note to this thread - Article V was set up at the creation of NATO in 1949 with the main aim of guaranteeing that the US (and Canada) would come to the aid of Europe in the event of an attack from the East, and to let the USSR and Warsaw Pact know this was a certainty. Article V has actually been invoked twice in NATO's history. Any idea of how and when?  Well with supreme irony the only instances so far have been a NATO political reponse to 9/11 (US did not request any military assistance) and in 2005 in order to get the NATO Response Force using European military transport aircraft and other equipment to support the US with humanitarian aid in the wake of Hurricane Katrina!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dutch

Was that when Dubya declared War on Climate and announced that you are either on our side or the side of the millibars.

[BobG]

I see the loathed one is reported as saying today that 'war with Ukraine is unlikely'.

Cute. Whether he means that or not is anybody's guess. Yet, without saying anything that anybody can object to, he's ratcheted up the stakes yet again. Now he's pretty clearly increasing the pressure on Kiev, and even worse, he's telling NATO loud and clear, that he will fight over Ukraine if he has to. He may be bluffing - but when the fighting intensifies again and the 'insurgents' tanks roll again, would you bet on that?

He has become the most dangerous man in the world today. And we have no publicly known credible response and will not have for quite a long time. He can force the West into making all kinds of unpleasant choices if he wants to - and he is very likely to come out ahead in all of them.

If the news ever contains anything about unrest in any of the Baltic states then we will all then be very close to the precipice whatever subsequently happens. When you're thinking about who to vote for in May, my suggestion is vote for the one most likely to be a statesman and war leader - just in case. The West needs stonkingly good leadership today more desparately than at almost any other time in my life.

BobG

PS I'll give you one other thing to ponder: who has been 'the enemy' this last 15 years? That's easy: terrorists. Al Quaeda and everyone that followed them. So where have many of the West's resources been focussed then?  That's easy too. Who has been a 'friend' for 14 of the last 15 years? Also easy peasy. Russia. In a climate of cost cutting and economy, what has happened to the Wests' intelligence and surveillance capability and capacity of Russia and its allies? That's pretty easy as well. We all know the fighting forces have been decimated. There is nothing intrinsic to intelligence that makes it exempt from that. So where does that leave us today?

[Dutch Uncle]

Hi Bob

Like you I am more concerned now than any time since the Cold War, and although I have no real knowledge I share your assessment of Putin. Among other things he seems very egocentric, not a good quality to have in excess in a powerful leader.

IMHO one problem that NATO has always had is that of image and poor Public Relations/Public face. Remember how Milosovic danced around NATO in the media when NATO was the obvious indisputable 'good guy' and Milosevic the war criminal he always was. Remember the face of NATO? Jamie Shea - a bright middle ranking official with little training for what he had to do. NATO just didn't see that it was important to put far more resources into that side of the house.  And of course, until we actually get into the field, NATO is the ultimate 'decision by committee' organisation, with every member state having a veto. We desperately need NATO PR to do a much better job right now.

The only other time I was scared since the Cold War was when the Russians took an Airfield in Kosovo and the NATO supreme Commander Wesley Clark ordered the British General Sir Michael Jackson to take it by force. Jackson played the 'national' card and took his right to query the order with his national MOD, who ordered him to wait. two days later the Russians and Brits were having coffee together, and a real flashpoint was avoided. The incident has been talked about very well by James Blunt who was in one of Jackson's leading tanks, and I am very surprised it is not more famous and analysed in public.

Like all of us on here I have no answers, and all political strategies have the drawbacks you mention. NATO will always re-act as the Peace Protection organisation it was fundamentally created as, and Putin will have his fun. I just hope he believes sufficiently that there is a line he must not be seen to be close to crossing, I.e. Violating a NATO member state's territory.

[BobG]

"I just hope he believes sufficiently that there is a line he must not be seen to be close to crossing, I.e. Violating a NATO member state's territory."

That's one of the most scary sentences I think I have ever read Brian. It says so, so much. And it offers so, so little. We are now reduced to 'hoping'. Ye Gods.

BobG

[Sprotyrover]

When the wall came down the West made an Assurance to Russia that NATO would not be expanded,that is not the case and Russia has every right to be wary of western motives when they are openly supporting quasi Nazi States bordering Russia itself.

Who by the way has been supplying arms to Isis?  Three letters starts wit C ends with A!

[Dutch Uncle]

Back in the 1980's during the  Iran-Iraq war there were 25 nations supplying arms. 22 of them supplied arms to both sides.

Also that was about the time the IRA were purported to be the only organisation in the world receiving funding from both the USSR and the USA.

[The Red Baron]

Bob. Current Prime Ministerial candidates as potential statesmen and war leaders. Hmmm- there's a choice! I don't see any Lloyd-Georges or Churchills there. Not even a Thatcher. The fact that Cameron has been around the world stage, albeit not really a leading player, might stand him in some stead.

Though in Europe at least, the key decision makers seem to be Merkel and Hollande.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

You could always vote UKIP. They seem happy enough to cosy up to Putin. There's a word for politicians who took that line in the 1930s.

[BobG]

Yes John. My suggestion was a cry of despair tbh. We seem to have very little leadership capability, or capacity don't we? Nor can we be confident of any from the next iteration in the USA either. What's the choices? Tub thumping, emotionally driven nationalism and jingoism from the right? Over sensitive, soft centred liberalism demonstrably afraid to take really tough decisions from the left? Putin would have to be an absolute idiot to give up any time in the next 2 years - and possibly quite a lot longer. Like I keep saying: he's got all the aces.  All he has to worry about for a considerable time ahead is how, and when, to play them. And all we can do is sit, wait and hope.

If you don't believe waiting is our best and only option, just what have Merkel and Hollande, our two brightest hopes, leaders of the two most powerful nations in Europe acting in concert with the USA, achieved in almost 12 months of trying? One civilian airliner shot down with all hands dead but swept under the carpet with almost nothing said and absolutely nothing achieved. One cease fire that, like every previous cease fire, has struggled from birth. One huge length of Ukrainian border that continues to be under the control of an invading imperialist power - yet no one is batting an eyelid. One huge imperialist power, busy invading a smaller neighbour and leaving enough evidence to prove the point. Yet absolutely nothing effective being either said or done about it. One insurgent group being armed, trained and led by Russia with continuing impunity. How can all that be???? Oh yes. The West has been caught with its trousers down. All the way down. All we can do is wait for Putin's next move. It'll be interesting to see what happens to defence spending in the next series of budgets across Europe. That's the only hope long term - but even that could be countered pretty easily by Putin now.

BobG

[The Red Baron]

TRB

You could always vote UKIP. They seem happy enough to cosy up to Putin. There's a word for politicians who took that line in the 1930s.

BST. I was looking at potential PMs following May's General Election. Maybe Farage believes in his wildest dreams that one day he'll be PM, but I doubt even that applies to May.

I think it may be unfair to describe UKIP as pro-Putin, but their foreign policy seems to be broadly isolationist. The point Farage made about Ukraine, which I thought was a valid one, was that the EU should not have been siding with the opposition against the elected government. By doing so they helped aggravate the situation.

[Sprotyrover]

Hi Bob my point is that we in Britain need to look at the wider picture.
Thee Germans have a different perspective to what is going on in the Ukraine.
They are a major trading partner with Russia ,they have little interest in entertaining a fascist regime in Kiev or even supporting it.
Let the Former Russian federation sort itself out,we are not in any position to take russia on and why should we.
Do we really need another 25 million mouths to feed in the Eurozone.
The Ukrainian Army showed its incompetence last weekend,there was an interesting article in the Times about the debacle.
Leave the Warmongering to the U.S. it's got nowt to do with us.

[BobG]

I doubt you will find many informed sources agreeing with you that the ousted Premier of Ukraine was elected in a democratic election as we understand the term John. Even at a simple level, anyone who can make 6 billion quid go missing can hardly be playing by the rules can he?

BobG

PS Have you seen the videos of that bloke's 'palace'? A supposedly democratically elected leader - and he built himself the most appalling palace (and I use the word advisedly) it is possible to conceive. Kitsch crap. At a cost of yet more billions. The Ukrainians had days out, just after the revolution, to just go gawp at it. They didn't even know it was there most of them. He most definitely was not a democratic leader John. if he had been, why would there have been all that trouble on the Maidan?

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

You're being just a tad disingenuous there. Farage has been sucking up to Putin for a good while now (numerous positive comments about Putin and Russia, regular appearances on The Russia Today news channel) and it's pretty clear why. Farage and Putin share a comment interest in seeing the EU cut down.

By their friends shall ye know them...

And of course, Putin is providing direct funding to right-wing, anti-Europe parties across the continent, from the French NF to Hungary's Jobbik party. You don't suppose....? Nah, couldn't be.

[BobG]

I'd love to be the politician/journalist who broke that as a real story..... I'd even forgive them the abuse of privacy to get it.

BobG

[BobG]

Just a thought chaps. Not particularly thought through, but idly interesting - to me anyway.

The situation the west is in today:

- a mad dictator intent on bullying folk all around him
- the cult of personality focused almost entirely on the leader/bully in chief
- the development of the bullying from small beginnings to bigger and ever bigger targets over a relatively short period of time
- the growing threat to everyone
- the military weakness of the west
- the massive re-militarisation of the armed forces of the bully
- the feeble political leadership of the west
- the stream of 'plans' and discussions and negotiations with the dictator that actually deliver eff all

Now what does that little lot remind you of? It should greatly remind you actually. It's Europe in 1938 isn't it? So taking this parallel a little further, is the Ukraine Czechoslovakia? Or is it Poland? My suggestion is that the west has already delivered its verdict: Ukraine is Czechoslovakia. We have no treaty commitment and we have sold them down the river. Peace in our time! So who is going to play Poland? We do have treaty commitments with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania......

Incidentally, I read yesterday that Lithuania has voted to re-introduce conscription. That's a sign in the wind that is. A telling sign.

Ah tell theee. These am bloody dangerous times.

BobG

PS Actually the parellel with the 1930's is even greater. What was it Hitler wanted above all else? Lebensraum. Putin might not have that as top of his agenda, but he's certainly not done a bad job in grabbing a shed load more of it has he? What's the score so far? A goodly sized chunk of Moldova. A even better sized chunk of Georgia. All of Chechyna. All of the Crimea. And now a fair chunk of the Ukraine. What's that lot if not more lebensraum? He's re-incorporating into his Reich all the irredenta from outside FFS! And all the native Russians he's so concerned about stand in a direct line to the native Germans that Hitler made such a furore about bringing back inside....

The bloke is a menace. He's been at this for half a dozen years now. Rather than showing any sign of stopping, of the west being able to even moderate his demands never mind stop them, his appetite has grown bigger every single time. This looks more and more as if it's going to end very badly indeed. If it's not this time, it will be next time. Now is the time for some proper leadership. Not tomorrow. Right NOW.

One last thought. Sorry. I wonder how loyal his senior military commanders will be in 18 months time if things look really, really bad by then? Maybe a coup is about the best we can hope for. Can't see one happening for a good while though. The population don't look as if they'd stand for it do they? But as a long term hope? Maybe.

And he's even just hosted the bloody Olympics too!!! Who played Jesse Owen?

[BobG]

Todays' News - and it ain't good

If you haven't seen the front page of this morning's copy of The Times, if you can get hold of one, have a read. Putin is raising the stakes again.

The headline is an obvious threat: to cut off gas to Ukraine - which, just by chance, don't you know, will screw Western Europe in collateral damage. Now, that could just be an empty threat. Bluster.  But it might not be. Putin could, very easily, be warning the West, 'If you interfere in what I'm going to do, just look what I will do to you'. And it is easy to suppose that that is what he is doing. As a general statement, the West has no alternative to Russian gas. Degrees of dependance vary, but if he were to do that, there would an enormous number of very cold people next winter, and there would be huge economic damage. Jobs, production, capacity. The lot. They'd all be decimated.

So our leaders have to be deciding their response now for if that ever happens. How far do you reckon they will trust us to tough it out? Me? I think we will cave in.

But even worse, in my eyes, is the news, hidden in that Times article, that Gazprom, and potentially other Russian organisations, are repatriating the headquarters and offices of their overseas organisations. That's right. They are bringing them home. Why would they do that? Two reasons: firstly, to avoid seeing them being seized by the West. And secondly? To get their ducks all lined up nice and safe in preparation for potential hostilities.

I think Putin is going to do something really rather bad before very much longer;  that he is telling us now, 'Keep out or else', and, that he is lining up his pawns just in case we don't keep out. (As an aside: did you know that Kalliningrad (quite a  famous place in 20thC German history), now a Russian enclave set in Lithuania, has had tens of billions of military roubles poured into it this last 18 months? That around half a million Russian service men and ex servicermen are currently there, and that if a Russian attack across Lithuania were launched from there, in the direction of arch ally Belarus, then Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will all be entirely cut off from NATO. So what price treaty commitments and NATO then? Invade from Poland? Yeah. Right.

Putin is going to scare the shit out of the world before very much longer. I hope the west has some big, solid levers it can pull. If it has, it will probably be done privately and without publicity. But we will see the results of it even so. As Brian said yesterday, all we can do is hope. I think almost every single Western leader of the last 15 years should be shot. Bill Clinton is about the only one I would exempt. Other than him, they've all entirely gone for the populist solution every time. Tossers the lot of them. Any fool has been able to see, for the last 20 years, that Russia is a 19th Century imperialist power. It's inherent in their level of political development. They'll grow out of it. But not in time for us. And sadly, I am not aware of even one meaningful lever in the possession of the West that would have enough short term impact to make Vlad stop to think even a little bit.

Me? I'm looking for a cottage to buy as far out in the sticks as I can manage. I hope I'm wrong, but I have a horrid suspicion that our modern day Poland is now on the horizon.

BobG

[Filo]

Before my time, but don't the Ruski's have history of taking things to the brink and then backing down when push came to shove, Cuban Missile Crisis?

[Sprotyrover]

It's about time Putin put the boot in! By the way Bob only 15% of Europes gas has to travel via the Ukraine thNks to Nord Stream and the Belarus Pipelines.

[Filo]

It's about time Putin put the boot in! By the way Bob only 15% of Europes gas has to travel via the Ukraine thNks to Nord Stream and the Belarus Pipelines.

Are n't those two pipelines operated by Russian state owned Gazprom?