celabrate good times come on ,lets have a celebration .

[Sprotyrover]

That's just the sort of post I'd expect from you Glynn!

[Donnywolf]

If 90% of the electorate realise they're being dumped on by the Tories then perhaps they won't vote for them.

I see what you say but given how the system is set up you can have a landslide like Thatcher got way back when with around 42% of the national vote. So she got a landslide despite WELL under half wanting her in and well over half NOT wanting her or her Party to win

I think there are dyed in the wool Tory voters and the same dyed in the wool voters for Labour and the rest are "floaters". It is these floaters that decide every election ***. It is these voters that JC has got to attract but given the "traditional" Left wingers are accounted for in the dyed in the wool bit it seems incredible to think enough of the floaters would trust him and whatever policies he has put forward (who knows they may be actually good) to make the difference

*** Check out the Election Major won which was I think decided by just over 1000 votes. He won with a majority of just 11 (I am doing this from memory so forgive me) So if they had lost 6 of those seats Labour would have WON. So then look at how many votes decided the lowest 6 Tory Seats hat they won. In total it was just over 1100 from memory

This time round - did they have a majority of 21 over everybody else ? Again look at the lowest 11 of those Seats and work out how many votes it would need to leave them without a majority. I will try and find the answers and post them later !

In summary the Tories got in with a very few "meaningful" votes electing them and those votes came right from the centre of the political ground not way out left

[Sprotyrover]

Labour will struggle to win the next Election without Scotland, they need to do something about the SNP.

[bobjimwilly]

Labour will struggle to win the next Election without Scotland, they need to do something about the SNP.

This is the reason I think Corbyn won. Scotland Labour were traditionally more left than English labour; by going more to the left Labour are hoping those who voted SNP last time round will get back on the ship.

[The Red Baron]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Scottish Parliament elections. Having Corbyn as leader may gain Labour some votes there, but I think overall he will lose Labour support in England.

As the SNP seem hell-bent on another referendum, there might not be any Scottish MPs at Westminster in 2020 anyway!

[Sprotyrover]

As much as I would like to see the Scots eat some humble pie,I really do believe it would be a disaster for the United Kingdom, it would case chaos to the union and in the end we would have to dig them out of their hole,at great cost to the taxpayer.

[The Red Baron]

Agreed on Scotland, but it is clear that the Nats are going to hold referendums every few years until they get what they want. The only thing that might stop them is if Labour fight back at the Scottish Parliament elections.

Corbyn's election might win them support in Scotland, though I doubt it will be enough to reverse the Nationalist tide.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can see only one hope for Labour under Corbyn, and it's not one that I want particularly. I actually think that his economic outlook is the closest to standard textbook free-market capitalist macro-economics of any of the main parties in the UK. And I wholeheartedly support most of it, especially the helicopter money idea. That is being portrayed as some mad, destructive Marxist nonsense. In fact it is a policy that was developed by Milton Friedman of all people, and it is a well-established idea in macro-economic theory for how to get out of a recession when interest rates are at zero.

Which comes to the one hope for Labour. If (as seems quite possible) we are heading into a nasty world recession due to the slowdown in China, then we have an almighty problem in the West. the standard way to deal with a recession is to slash interst rates. But interest rates cannot go lower than they already are. The second standard way is Govt expenditure financed by borrowing to kick-start the economy. But we will not do that, because of the obsession that we have about the deficit, which eliminates the possibility of sensible grown-up disucssion on the topic. So the third approach is helicopter money. You get the Bank of England to print new money and either use that to pay for Govt expenditure to kick start the economy. Or, you give it away free to people to spend and use THAT to kick-start the economy.

I repeat. This is not mad leftiness. This is what Milton Friedman proposed years ago - the man whose monetarist ideas were the favourite of Thatcher.

So, IF there is a nasty recession on the way, suddenly, Corbyn looks like the man ahead of the curve with the only acceptable solution. But it's a long shot, because the Tories and the Tory press would rather us have an extended recession with 3-4million on the dole than admit that Corbyn might have been right. Which is why I have such a problem with Corbyn as Labour leader. He is simply too easy a target. He's an easy bogeyman and the Tories will hammer on that point to scare off enough people in England from voting for him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Plus, there is another issue about Corbyn which has received surprisingly little discussion.

He's old.

At the 2020 electionl, he will be 70. We've never had a 70 year old take up the position of PM for the first time. By 2025, he'll be 75. The last time we had a PM that old was Churchill in 51-55 and that premiership is not looked on as having been a success. Before that it was Gladstone in the 1890s. In a world where decisions have to be taken quickly and senior politicians have to put in very extended hours, it is no conincidence that you don't get many leaders older than mid 60s.

I suspect that issue will b epushed relentlessly in the run-up to 2020. Assuming Corbyn survives that long.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And finally, appointing as Shadow Chancellor, a man who is on record (even if it was a joke) as saying that he'd like to go back to the 1980s and assassinate Thatcher is utter stupidity.

This isn't grown-up politics. It is saying to your opponents, "There's my chin. Go on. Free punches all round."

[The Red Baron]

The Shadow Chancellor job was for me Corbyn's best opportunity of showing he was being inclusive by appointing someone from the opposite wing of the party. Instead, he chose a man seen as an ideological soulmate. Bad move, and one that will have the Tories rubbing their hands.

He could also have avoided some trouble by appointing a woman - maybe one of the Eagle twins- to the job.

[Sprotyrover]

John Mann just been on Radio Dee Dah,Corbin goes back on his Coal promise,the stuff will now stay in the ground! That'll piddle off a few of the Ludites around this area.

[The Red Baron]

Shame. Opening up a few coal mines seemed one of his better ideas.

[Sprotyrover]

Well apart from privatisation me and Jeremy have very similar views on the U.S. Meddling in Russia's affairs.
Although I would not go so far as to cosy up to Vlad Putin and I certainly would spend more on defence having naffed off the Yanks!

[Sprotyrover]

RB I am really surprised he has dropped coal so quickly,it probably goes on the back of what the NUM told him about the reality of trying to re open de commissioned Coal mines...there isn't one, once they are shut down they are economically unviable.

[BobG]

You don't wanna go anywhere near that Putin chap Sproty. I've had some dealings in that direction. He really is not a nice fellow at all.

Bob

[BillyStubbsTears]

Excellent piece by Krugman as usual.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/opinion/paul-krugman-labours-dead-center.html?referrer=

As he says, Corbyn has won because of the intellectual collapse of the Labour moderates who offered nothing whatsoever.

I'd go further. What has collapsed in the Labour Party is not the moderates, as in Blairites. They are still physically there, even though they intellectually bankrupt of ideas. What has actually collapsed is the old moderate-left. The place that used to be occupied by the likes of Healy, Hattersley, John Smith, Jim Callaghan and Tony Crosland over the previous couple of generations. They have vanished. Totally. Labour's MPS now comprise 85% New Labour and 15% Bennite left. There is nothing in the huge chasm in the middle, which is EXACTLY where Labour should have been positioning themselves this time. Different from the Tories but electorally credible.

Instead we've had the choice of three candidates way to the right of Ted Heath and Harold Macmillian on economics, and one who is the heir to Tony Benn.

Enough to make you weep.

[BobG]

No Billy. Not weep. Its making me stupendously angry.

I meant what I said in some other post. The Labour Party owes us all an abject apology. They have disgraced themselves and they have abandoned a large minority of the population. And for what? The unelectable Jeremy bleeding Corbyn? I ask you.....

BobG

[Orlandokarla]

UK politics are irrelevant; Donald Trump is going to save the world. Just keep your chins up until then.
 

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK.

Great int it? Trump is doing the reverse Corbyn job in the States. Making sure that the Republicans will be utterly unelectable next year. But appealing to the core voters who can't understand why everyone doesn't agree with them.

[Orlandokarla]

If Trump is successful, I'd seriously consider Canada. 

[Filo]

No Billy. Not weep. Its making me stupendously angry.

I meant what I said in some other post. The Labour Party owes us all an abject apology. They have disgraced themselves and they have abandoned a large minority of the population. And for what? The unelectable Jeremy bleeding Corbyn? I ask you.....

BobG

For me, the only people that will make Corbyn unelectable is it's own MP's who throw the dummy out and go to the back benches because they haven't got what they want. What they should be doing is working with Corbyn and trying to influence policy towards the centre left. Personally I'm pleased the Labour party has moved nearer it's core values

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo.

What will make Corbyn unelectable is choosing as his senior lieutenant a man who admires the IRA and said he would like to have assassinated Thatcher.

That is how you consolidate your support with about 15% of the population. Not how you win General Elections.

As I say, this is infantile behaviour. It is not grown-up politics. There was a young Labour activist on Newsnight last night saying how great it was that Corbyn had enthused so many people to vote for him. Philip Collins (who I don't particularly agree with on most things, but who genuinely wants the Labour party in power to make what difference it can) replied spot on. He said that the people who voted for Corbyn represent less than 0.5% of the electorate. It is not THEM that Corbyn needs to enthuse. It is another 10-12 million people in the country. And he will not do that by having idiots like McDonald in senior positions. He will do well to get half that many people to vote for Labour by the time McDonell's record has been savaged by the press and the Tories.

And then you raise the issue of party discipline. And here is the real core of where Corbyn's problems will come. He and McDonell have a 20-30 year record of dissent and voting against the party leadership. He CANNOT command party discipline with a record like that. He is inviting every man, woman and dog to criticise and complain about him and to vote against him in Parliament. This is going to be an utter shambles and Labour are going to look like a car crash.

Personally, I'd be amazed if he lasts 2 years in the position.

[Copps is Magic]

He is inviting every man, woman and dog to criticise and complain about him and to vote against him in Parliament. This is going to be an utter shambles and Labour are going to look like a car crash.

That sounds dangerously like a democracy Billy! Can't be having that can we at the expense of electability.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

Very noble ideas but you are confusing the concept of democracy with its practical implementation.

The idea of a political party is that you have your blood letting and your arguments and your fisticuffs and your flouncing off behind closed doors. Then you come to a collective decision and you abide by that. That is democracy within the party. If you lose, you bite your tongue and accept the democratic decision. Only on the very gravest matters do you go against that collective decision.

There is a reason for this. The other side is trying to shoot down your party. So you don't really want to be helping them by saying "Yeah, I think we're shit as well."

If you are constantly finding that you are unable to support the  collective decision, it's likely that you are in the wrong party.

Corbyn and McDonnell have made careers out of being the awkward f**kers who put their beliefs above this collective responsibility. On hundreds of matters. He's got no mandate whatsoever to expect loyalty from his MPs.

PS: You condescendingly imply that electability is a dirty word. It was THAT attitude that have Thatcher a free run to devastate South Yorkshire in the 1980s. That still f**king well cuts deep with me. Having ideals that result in you being in opposition is a nice, comforting indulgence. But it won't stop the Bedroom Tax and it won't stop working tax credits being slashed and it won't stop the unions being hobbled.

Your choice.

[Copps is Magic]

I feel ya. Consent and consensus through the party political system. That seems to me to be hegemony in fullest sense of the word - and the fullest sense that Gramsci meant it.

Cameron didn't push through the horrific cuts to disabled people's benefits based solely on his make-up and greased hair but through an apparatus of discourses which reproduced the dominant notion that everyone on benefits were scroungers. Labour to me were just as implicit in this (and still largely are).

I think where we're differing here is - 'what do we do about it?'. Corbyn to me represents exactly an attack upon the idea of consensus politics and the disillusionment with politics among the wider public.  There's plenty of ways in which he can influence people beyond the terrible electoral system we have in this country (which has for 20 years produced a weird pastiche of centrist politics where all of the parties broadly agree with each other on every single issue).

I know you don't like me passing electability off as dirty, but equally when we're passing democracy off as idealist don't you think that might point towards deeper problems?

[Filo]

The biggest threat to Corbyn's electability is the British Press, spewing their Tory hatred all over the front page, make no mistake, the Tories and the press are running scared, they know Corbyn is very much electable!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

where all of the parties broadly agree with each other on every single issue.

See, this is what gets my goat. When intelligent people trot out this idle nonsense.

As I said the other day, if you truly cannot see a difference between a party that introduced working tax credits and a party that is eliminating them, then I despair.

If you truly cannot see the difference between a party that dealt with the 2008 recession by applying Keynesian stimulus which saved 1,000,000 jobs and a party that was ideologically implacably opposed to that, then I despair.

If you truly cannot see the difference between the spending plans laid out by Labour and the Tories last May, and their consequences for the poorest people in society, then we have a very different outlook on politics.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS

I'm not sure where you read into anything that I've posted that I think democracy is "idealist". Far from it. But democracy without a final acceptance of the democratic decision and an insistence that you are going to do your own thing anyway is not democracy. It is indulgence.

[Copps is Magic]

Billy, your knowledge of the tax credits policies is undoubtedly better than mine. A precursory look, however, seems to suggest that Tories aren't 'eliminating' them but reducing the threshold dramatically.

Again, maybe you can educate me otherwise (because I don't follow closely a lot of bluster and lies spun) but aren't a large section of the Labour party broadly behind cutting welfare benefits and following a similar line set out by Osborne?