Referendum prediction poll

[Donnywolf]

Personally I think we as a Nation will vote to leave

[BillyStubbsTears]

It'll be at least 55-45 to remain.

Folk will have their hissy fits over Europe, but when faced with the massive uncertainty of leaving, they will vote to stay.

[Filo]

I think we'll leave, and I'll be voting to leave

[The Red Baron]

I'll vote to leave, but I think the vote will be to stay in. Will probably be a re-run of the Scottish Referendum over a shorter period.

Looking forward to that moment when the Remain Campaign gets all wobbly over a few polls though.

PS. Has Boris got off that fence yet?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I'll probably vote leave but that might change. I expect remain to win though.

[coventryrover]

I'll vote to stay.

At least we have a say at the moment.  Norway, Switzerland etc dont but still have to confirm to EU requirements to trade.

[Yorkiered]

I dont think people know enough about why we should leave or stay.
There are too many who think we are still a major power in the world and can easily go our own way.

[Lipsy]

I'll vote to stay. Much as I hate the way Europe does things and the fact that we pretty much always 'gold-plate' their rulings, the idea of 9 years of unfettered Tory government is too much to bear.

[Yargo]

I'll vote to stay. Much as I hate the way Europe does things and the fact that we pretty much always 'gold-plate' their rulings, the idea of 9 years of unfettered Tory government is too much to bear.

Whereas rule by right wing governments from abroad is fine eh? Tell it to the Greeks,i'm an outer,how many right wing parties have to take control of Europe before Labour becomes an out party again?

[Lipsy]

Well, when Osborne or - heaven help us - Boris Trump rules the country, we'll need all the help we can get. I dread to think what further shite IDS and Gove would come up with in a new era of splendid isolation.

[Filo]

For me the very fact all the Eastern European countries were up in arms about British benefits being stopped from going to people in their countries tells us every thing. Time to leave this godforsaken club and give Britain back to the British people!

[i_ateallthepies]

I'm convinced it will be a vote to leave, though I'll be voting to stay.  The difficulty I have about all of this is that the population who will decide this simply don't have the first idea what life outside is going to be like but will vote based on relatively trivial dislikes of the way things are inside the union.

What I object to most in all of this is Cameron's willingness to put his personal political ambition ahead the nation's future.

[Lipsy]

"British people". *sniggers uncontrollably*

That'll tickle me for the rest of the day. Thanks.

[The Red Baron]

I'll vote to stay. Much as I hate the way Europe does things and the fact that we pretty much always 'gold-plate' their rulings, the idea of 9 years of unfettered Tory government is too much to bear.

I know this isn't primarily a thread about reasons for staying or going, but I think a radical Labour government would probably find its plans frustrated by the EU. I'm surprised Corbyn is for staying in, but maybe he doesn't think it is worth picking a fight with his MPs over this.

[wilts rover]

Oh I guess we will have plenty of those in the next few months TRB. Will Mad Mick make a comeback to give us the benefit of his knowledge on the issue though!

Labour by its very defination should be an internationalist party across political borders and thus a major supporter of initaives like the EU. I guess Corbyn's own political standpoint would be that the current regime isn't internationalist enough - and is far too tempered towards business interests than to ordinary people.

[IDM]

Folks need to vote on the detail of what this all means, not the headline reasons.

My other half is German (we are not married) and has lived in the UK for 20+ years.  Does leaving the EU mean that freedom of movement and freedom to work etc will be rescinded?  Would leaving the EU force families like mine to be torn apart?

[MrFrost]

For me the very fact all the Eastern European countries were up in arms about British benefits being stopped from going to people in their countries tells us every thing. Time to leave this godforsaken club and give Britain back to the British people!

What do you define as a British person Filo?

So much sweeping generalisations in your posts. What's the matter, too many Polish taxi drivers?

[GazLaz]

The fact they even put it to a vote means they know we well stay. As BST says it will be 60/40 ish.

[Harrogate Rover]

If the UK does decide to leave Europe, I just hope we go somewhere nice. Maybe the Caribbean?

[Donnywolf]

I'm convinced it will be a vote to leave, though I'll be voting to stay.  The difficulty I have about all of this is that the population who will decide this simply don't have the first idea what life outside is going to be like but will vote based on relatively trivial dislikes of the way things are inside the union.

What I object to most in all of this is Cameron's willingness to put his personal political ambition ahead the nation's future.

Agree - sums up exactly what I think and why I set up the Poll to see what people thought would happen

Its a massive issue and needs deciding on the holistic view not as you say the minutiae just agreed by Cameron and other trivia ... and for me that's the problem we need so much info to make the correct decision and so it is confusing already when the supposed "Government" cant agree Yes or No (ok as a Party they are promoting Remain - whilst 6 of the same Cabinet have been allowed to campaign for Leave)   

If they cant agree for goodness sake "armed" with lets hope "a greater knowledge" than we the electorate, how the hell are we going to get it right ? It will probably be decided as you say on a single issue such as immigration

[The Red Baron]

Rather than predicting that the sky will fall in if we vote to leave, the Remain camp needs to stress the positive benefits. Otherwise as you say it will come down mainly to immigration.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I don't often agree with Matthew Parris, but he wrote a superb piece on that very theme in The Times yesterday.

He stressed that the Remain case shouldn't be about bean counting (even though it's an unanswerable case). Rather, it should be a philosophical one. About emphasising the strength and collective fortitude of what Europe has produced and how it is still, as an ideal, a beacon to the world. In a world where America may be going to Trump, where China with its very different philosophical approach is going to be increasingly powerful, where Putin's bristling gangster state is on our borders and where radical Islam is the very antithesis of the European ideal, making a decision on whether you'd be a few quid better or worse off is an abdication of responsibility.

The issue is whether Europe stands together as an example. Or whether we Brits choose to weaken the foundations.

[Sad-Rovers]

Give Britain back to the British people!

Where have I heard rhetoric like that before? Oh yes, that's right:



Awful, divisive language. For shame.

[BobG]

You know what Sad...? I'm in grave danger of agreeing with you yet again!

I am a convinced Europhile. I always will be. It's not that I think the EC is wonderful. I don't. But I am a historian. I know where every major war bar about three have started this last 3 hundred years. You've got it: in Europe.

Anything that encourages European collaboration, communication, gets my vote every time. There is centuries of experience showing that the absence of a collective European body brings misery to tens of millions and death to millions more. I will put up with an awful lot of euro crap to maintain that pan European entente.

The existence of I.S., Putin, George Osborne, Donald Trump and a resurgent China are, of course, other good reasons why Europe should stick together. As does the fact (yes - fact) that immigration brings net economic and experential gain to this country year after year after year.

There's no such thing as an 'Englishman' anyway. We are every one of us descended from immigrants. Even Michael bleeding Portillo and Michael holier than thou Howard.

Cheers

BobG

[Donnywolf]

I see we are already into personal attacks rather than facts as well

Quote Cameron when asked what would happen if Boris joined the leave Camp - "well if he wants to take a leap in the dark while holding the hands of George Galloway and Nigel Farage".

Then after BJ had confirmed he was going to throw his weight behind the "Leave" campaign Hesseltine comes on and says "look hes been In then Out then in then Out and finally opts to go to the Out side and take a huge leap into the Dark" (or something similar)

What we need is FACTS and neither of the above examples advance the debate one iota

I don't want to be scaremongered with phrases like a "leap in the dark" and the "dark side" - I want to know what they both ARE ..... AND even though Galloway and Farage may be controversial and not to everyone's taste neither are Cameron and particularly Osborne

Will they all cut it out and stick to the facts ? As much chance as BBC saying enough coverage already so lets have a One Hour Special every day repeated if necessary for those who missed it the first time round

[The Red Baron]

Exactly right, DW.

[Glyn_Wigley]

We've been into personal attacks rather than facts ever since Farage entered the scene. That's how he's built his whole career.

[BillyStubbsTears]

DW

Because in Boris's case, everything is always about Boris.

He hasn't got an ideological case for or against Europe. What he's doing is sniffing the wind in the Tory party and positioning himself to be the next leader.

He's a sideshow to the main issue. Unless the main issue actually becomes the Tory party tearing itself apart on this issue.

I've said and I still believe that Corbyn is unelectable. But given that they have such a weak and unrealistic Opposition, it's possible that the Tories will lose their discipline and descend into civil war over Europe. Johnson is just picking his side in that war, because he thinks that gives him the better chance of getting into No10. Which is all he is interested in.

[Donnywolf]

.... because he thinks that gives him the better chance of getting into No10. Which is all he is interested in.  (from above)

And that is exactly what is worrying me ! From whichever side and Party the comments come there are hidden Agendas - and personal attacks and this vote Remain or Leave is just TOO big to be at the mercy of such spurious tactics

As an electorate we just NEED the facts on which to decide. As an electorate we need to get this RIGHT for us as a Country and while people (Politicians mainly) resort to cheap shots and jibes and self promoting tactics there will be a smokescreen over the whole debate obscuring the reality

[MachoMadness]

When was the last time British politics was about facts? This In/Out campaign seems to be built on emotion, from both sides. I agree DW, we need to have the facts, but I would be very surprised if either side presents too many of them. Expect plenty more "leap in the dark" and "risk of terrorism" rhetoric from both sides, sadly.