BREXIT

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

Or, as an EU official once said, the attitude of some British people to the EU is like a man going to a wife swapping party and not taking his wife.

They seem to think that we can have all the benefits of the EU without sticking to the common set of rules that everyone else plays by. Presumably because we are British and therefore fundamentally better than anyone else in Europe.

[Savvy]

Or to put things another way Savvy, you are telling us that we can withdraw our funding from the EU with no repercussions? How does that work?

Its like stopping your season ticket at Rovers and then asking to be let in for free! No, you have to pay for every game - which will cost you more in the long run.

Which facts do you refer to Billy? One mans glass is half full is another mans glass that's half empty! Opinions are all that's being put forward by both sides, but thats not exactly ground breaking is it? What has been interesting is the amount of times the words "Could" "may" possibly" have been used by the Remainins and the BBC. If my Auntie had Bollox she COULD be called my Uncle!!!

Now, how many of the 28 member countries are net contributors to the EU?

[Glyn_Wigley]

So the Worlds 5th biggest economy would be bullied by the EU regarding who can and can't come into the country although we would not be part of the union? Come on then, how does that work?

In exactly the same way as it does with Norway. Access to the Single Market includes free movement of people, full stop. Do you honestly think we can leave the EU and then tell them what terms we demand in order for the UK to still have access to the Single Market - an EU institution? Come on then, how does that work - when every other country in the EU will be happy to have us outside the Single Market in order to make our products more expensive and thus protect their own industries?

PS The conditions for access to the Single Market aren't an opinion, they're a cold, hard fact. Conditions that you seem to think an opinion trumps.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy

Read up on it.
http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/

As for the net contribution:

1) I don't really care how many net contributors there are. It's irrelevant. The net amount that we pay is the about 0.3% of our GDP. To put that in context, it's the equivalent of the cost of a bag of crisps every three days for someone earning £500 per week. It's flagged up as some horrific figure, but in national terms it is coppers. What really matters is what the money does.

2) The purpose of these contributions is to have a flow of structural funds from rich areas to poorer areas. That is something I wholeheartedly agree with on both moral and hard-headed economic and security grounds. If you want a peaceful and prosperous future, you do it by bringing everyone up to a prosperous level. The EU has been an astonishing success at this over the decades.

3) The "net" contribution totally ignores the benefits from being able to trade with more prosperous neighbours. These VASTLY outweigh the top line figure that the Outers spout (which itself is wrong, they know it's wrong and they still refuse to admit that it's wrong).

4) Even if there WAS a net benefit to leaving the EU, do you honestly think a Govt comprising Gove or Johnson or Farage would spend it on South Yorkshire...

5)...like the EU did when we were one of the poorest regions in Europe. That money came from the net contributions from Germany and Holland and France and Italy. Do you reckon we should tax the citizens of Doncaster to pay those countries back? 

[Savvy]

Here we go again, with the made up figures, I'm not interested in Norway or Switzerland, the deal we get will be a deal that is suitable to the 5th biggest economy in the world. Ask yourself this question, if the referendum was a vote on whether or not to join this union rather than to remain in it, would you join.

How many countries are net contributors to the EU Billy?

[BillyStubbsTears]

What made up figures Savvy?

Our net contribution is around £7bn per year.
(Source: Office for National Statistics: http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-the-uk-contribution-to-the-eu-budget/)

Our GDP is around £450bn per quarter or about £1.8tr per year.
(Source: Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp)

So our net contribution is about 0.39% of our national income.

0.39% of a £500 per week income is £1.94, or about 28p per day.

Walkers grab bag crisps cost 75p.

(Source: http://m.thegrocer.co.uk/526846.article?mobilesite=enabled)

I don't know who you normally talk to, but some of us make a living by getting numbers right, not making them up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And yes, I would vote to join. And, as I said earlier and you ignored, Switzerland does about the same amount of trade with the EU as we do. So what makes you think we are going to be able to bully our way to a better deal?

And on the other question you're obsessing over, typically around 10 countries make net contributions Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and us. Varies from year to year but generally those countries all make net contributions.

[Savvy]

And yes, I would vote to join. And, as I said earlier and you ignored, Switzerland does about the same amount of trade with the EU as we do. So what makes you think we are going to be able to bully our way to a better deal?

And on the other question you're obsessing over, typically around 10 countries make net contributions Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and us. Varies from year to year but generally those countries all make net contributions.

7 billion  you say Billy, My man says 11billion (3 minutes in).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC9nDCmqjn8

[Glyn_Wigley]

Here we go again, with the made up figures, I'm not interested in Norway or Switzerland, the deal we get will be a deal that is suitable to the 5th biggest economy in the world.

So the figures are made up - despite being sourced - but your argument about the 'deal' isn't a fantasy?

[Glyn_Wigley]

And yes, I would vote to join. And, as I said earlier and you ignored, Switzerland does about the same amount of trade with the EU as we do. So what makes you think we are going to be able to bully our way to a better deal?

And on the other question you're obsessing over, typically around 10 countries make net contributions Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and us. Varies from year to year but generally those countries all make net contributions.

7 billion  you say Billy, My man says 11billion (3 minutes in).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC9nDCmqjn8

A partial Brexiter's claim beats the National Office of Statistics?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy

I'm genuinely disappointed. I really thought you were more intelligent than that.

The numbers are there in that ONS link. Are you REALLY telling me that you trust DANIEL HANNAN over the Office for National Statistics?  In a profession rightly castigated for stretching the truth to breaking point, Hannan is an absolute master. He relies on the approach that if he trots out apparently authoritative numbers with his superciliously self-confident tone, people will believe him. Trouble is, he rarely gets the numbers right.

https://hugo-dixon.com/2015/10/11/hannans-wayward-way-with-facts/

http://liberalconspiracy.org/2009/08/13/daniel-hannan-national-disgrace/

https://identityspace.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/dan-hannan-is-a-liar/

http://www.kosmopolito.org/2014/02/21/lying-with-statistics-feat-ecr-and-daniel-hannan/

I am genuinely disappointed Savvy. I thought you were better than just being prepared to uncritically accept lies from someone because they are what you want to hear.

[Savvy]

Billy, I'm far  more rounded that to make my decisions based on one persons view or say so. What about Patrick Minford, is he talking rubbish as well?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy

I'm rather busy to be honest. Was there a specific point about our contribution to the EU buried in that half hour video?

And Patrick  Minford? Sweet Jesus! The renegade economist who persuaded Thatcher to go for the crazy monetarist experiment that threw us into the horrific recession in 1980/81, resulting in the carnage in the South Yorkshire economy?

Are you for real?

[idler]

My postal vote to leave has been posted. I remember BST castigating the German Banks for screwing Greece over and leaving them in the crap.
Rightly or wrongly a Federal Europe won't work and that seems to be the route that we are going down.
Come and see the school that my daughter teaches in or any of the inner city schools in Bradford. Look at Offsted reports for the schools here. Teachers are leaving in droves. Two of my grandchildren go to Hanson Academy another two pay to go to Bradford Grammar. The difference is unbelievable at every level. We don't need any more primary school children that do not speak English as a first language.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Idler.

There is a big difference between the Euro and the EU.

The way in which the Euro has been managed is a disgrace. But the last thing we should do as a response is to walk away from the EU. There's more if a need than ever to have a strong counterweight to Germany and their specific obsessions.

[Filo]

2) The purpose of these contributions is to have a flow of structural funds from rich areas to poorer areas. That is something I wholeheartedly agree with on both moral and hard-headed economic and security grounds. If you want a peaceful and prosperous future, you do it by bringing everyone up to a prosperous level. The EU has been an astonishing success at this over the decades.

You mean like the more prosperous nations bully the smaller nations into bankruptcy like Greece?

[idler]

BST, I just can't see it changing. The bureaucracy just seems to be growing out of control. The common man in any country is getting less and less influence on policy.
People in this country can argue and then ditch a government in a general election. That isn't an option in Europe and there is little chance of the people in twenty odd countries agreeing. I think that if we remain the EU will increase pressure on the UK in coming years possibly including forcing us to join the euro. Only my opinion but I have voted my gut instinct. I think the vote will be to remain because more people have a fear of what will happen if we leave than those that fear what will happen if we stay.

[idler]

Ps if I don't reply it's not that I'm hiding. I'm off to Pilates.
It's great being retired. Well some days it is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

That is a structural problem with the management of the EURO. It is totally different from the EU structure and EU structural funds.

I fully agree that the way in which Germany has handled the Greek issue is a catastrophic mistake. But to use that as a reason to walk away from the EU is simply not logical.

[Filo]

Filo

That is a structural problem with the management of the EURO. It is totally different from the EU structure and EU structural funds.

I fully agree that the way in which Germany has handled the Greek issue is a catastrophic mistake. But to use that as a reason to walk away from the EU is simply not logical.

My belief is the end game of the EU is total political and monetery union, is that what we really want? I don't thats for sure

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

Not a chance in hell within our lifetimes. The whole momentum across Europe is against further integration. There's no appetite for it. And even if there was, there's no possibility whatsoever of us going for that. It's a bogeyman that's thrown up by the Leave campaign.

[The Red Baron]

Filo

Not a chance in hell within our lifetimes. The whole momentum across Europe is against further integration. There's no appetite for it. And even if there was, there's no possibility whatsoever of us going for that. It's a bogeyman that's thrown up by the Leave campaign.

That may be true for the people of the EU, but it sure as hell isn't for those running the key institutions of the EU.

[Donnywolf]

It's great being retired. Well some days it is.

I find every day is a Saturday anyway !

[idler]

It's great being retired. Well some days it is.

I find every day is a Saturday anyway !

I certainly don't miss Mondays, unless it's a bank holiday.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

But the people running the EU are not the ones who will make those decisions. It is national-level electorates, either directly through referendums or indirectly through general elections. There is no chance of major moves towards further political integration being passed over the next few decades. It is a non-issue that is being hammered by the Out campaign and being lapped up by people who think that we alone in Europe have a fierce sense of national identity.

[The Red Baron]

Ah yes, referendums! Sadly the EU has a tendency to run those until it gets the result it wants. Ask the Danes and the Irish.

It may seem that integration is off the agenda at the moment but I think the Eurozone problems and possible Brexit have simply pushed it onto the back burner.

[Muttley]

Ah yes, referendums! Sadly the EU has a tendency to run those until it gets the result it wants. Ask the Danes and the Irish.

But the EU doesn't determine whether a country holds a referendum on a particular issue, that is determined by the government of the country in question.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

If you start from a position of assuming that the EU is a monster, then it's going to be hard to look at things with any degree of objectivity.

Both Ireland and Denmark chose themselves to run second referendums after negotiating specific opt-outs or assurances on key issues following the original NO votes. Both countries then had large majorities in favour of the treaties in question in the second referendums. That sounds to me like hard-headed negotiation.

And how come the Leave people always remember those examples and never, say, the French and Dutch rejection of the proposed European Constitution?

I just don't get this blinkered insistence that them bas**rds over there are a homogenous collective who will destroy our unique British freedoms.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As for further integration, it's on the back burner for a generation at the bare minimum.

The Great Crash highlighted the fundamental disparities between the different EZ economies, and the catastrophe of turning a blind eye to this and hoping for the best. That puts the kybosh on any near-future attempts to ram countries' economies closer together.

The failed ECB response to the crash (ironic really, since it was one that ties in with right-wing Brexiters' favoured economic approach...) has produced resentment across the EZ.

And the migrant crisis has emboldened far-right nationalists across Europe, from Farage to Le Pen to Orban. There is no way that any country is going to go for more political integration with those domestic backgrounds.

We've seen the high water of EU integration for my lifetime. You're fighting a 10 year old battle TRB and missing the really important issues.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the key question for the Brexit supporters.

Why do you think Putin is funding far-right anti-EU parties in France, Hungary, Netherlands, Austria and elsewhere? And doesn't that worry you at all? Because it scares the living shite out of me.