One immediate effect of Brexit vote

[Lipsy]

It was 'Project Fear', they said...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/morgan-stanley-brexit-eu-referendum-jobs-dublin-frankfurt-a7100911.html

[GazLaz]

FTSE down 2%. Nowhere near as bad as expected.

[esdailles left foot]

See if you can move to France then if you don't like it.

Blairy loves France

[Lipsy]

I've now moved onto the stage where I need something, anything to make me smile.

This actually made me laugh for a second...

Just found £8 down the back of the sofa!

[BillyStubbsTears]

FTSE down 2%. Nowhere near as bad as expected.

And from The Telegraph:

but the FTSE 250, which is considered a closer barometer of the UK economy, fell by as much as 12.3pc before paring losses back to 7.3pc.

[Bentley Bullet]

I've now moved onto the stage where I need something, anything to make me smile.

This actually made me laugh for a second...

Just found £8 down the back of the sofa!

Suppose it's better than finding one of these!

[ferribyrover]

FTSE 100 closed at 6,138.7 probably about average level during the last year, so not quite the disaster forecast by Gideon and Dozy Dave, but markets don't like uncertainty so hope the Politicians and Civil Servants get a move on with negotiating our divorce from EU.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And the Dow Jones is down 3%
The Dax down 7%
The Nikkei down 8%
The FTSE250 down 8%
The CAC down 8%
The Nasdaq down 8%

Just ripples...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo mate.

1) I'm not talking about what MIGHT happen. I'm talking about what IS HAPPENING. Pretty obvious, I thought, but there you go.

2) If you think that what happens on the stock markets and financial markets doesn't affect ordinary people, then you are more divorced from reality than even I had realised.

3) The "scaremongering tactics" involved sober predictions of this kind of global market chaos as a result of Brexit. The people who predicted these things were accused of being bought out liars and likened to Hitler's lackeys. If you're happy to throw your lot in with the folk who used those tactics then...well, frankly, I'm not really surprised.

4) Clearly the Remain side's message failed. Whether it was wrong is an entirely different issue. But congratulations. Your side won. No question about that. Fingers crossed that all those experts WERE wrong, eh? And that this market reaction really is just ripples.

Now. f**k off. You bore me.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No. I haven't had the time.

I've spent the evening explaining to my part-Italian 9 year old that he won't have to "f**k off home" as someone kindly suggested to him at school today.

So you'll understand if I'm a bit short f**king tempered.

[albie]

Moving back to the topic heading, could I introduce the elephant in the room?

On second thoughts, this piece by Jeanette Winterson does it well;
We need to build a new left. Labour means nothing today | Politics | The Guardian

DisUnited Kingdom..the next chapter!

[tommy toes]

I think the vote to leave was won almost entirely on the immigration issue. That is clear from the demographics of the voting.
Ladcrooks were betting 10/1 ON that remain would win as the polls closed, which to me implies that thousands and thousands of people who voted leave did so furtively with the immigration issue as their priority.
It's a disgrace but there it is.
Let's hope we can find a way through this.

[CrippyCooke]

Rigo mate.

1) I'm not talking about what MIGHT happen. I'm talking about what IS HAPPENING. Pretty obvious, I thought, but there you go.

2) If you think that what happens on the stock markets and financial markets doesn't affect ordinary people, then you are more divorced from reality than even I had realised.

3) The "scaremongering tactics" involved sober predictions of this kind of global market chaos as a result of Brexit. The people who predicted these things were accused of being bought out liars and likened to Hitler's lackeys. If you're happy to throw your lot in with the folk who used those tactics then...well, frankly, I'm not really surprised.

4) Clearly the Remain side's message failed. Whether it was wrong is an entirely different issue. But congratulations. Your side won. No question about that. Fingers crossed that all those experts WERE wrong, eh? And that this market reaction really is just ripples.

Now. f**k off. You bore me.

You moved to France yet?

Pathetic.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, here's one thing that's NOT going to happen, according to Dan Hannan (via BBC website)

Daniel HannanBBC
From earlier on the Big Decision, Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Dan Hannan said there was no promise to reduce immigration by leaving the European Union.

He told the programme that Vote Leave had "never said there is going to be some radical decline, that we're going to shut the door".

Mr Hannan said what people wanted was to know the government was in charge of how many people were coming in.

"We promised to control migration even that will take time - I don't want to build up expectations but that will happen," he said.

He said people are "not like three-year-olds" and they understand that nothing will change immediately.

Yeah, I distinctly recall the Leave side frequently saying, "Vote for us because we're NOT promising to reduce immigration."

I wonder when folk will start to realise the extent to which they've been played?

You know what truly terrifies me? The casual way in which the fear of immigration is stoked up for political purpose, by people who have no intention or ability to do anything about it. It's a powder keg.

[RedJ]

Obviously when it's too late.

[Copps is Magic]

I think the vote to leave was won almost entirely on the immigration issue. That is clear from the demographics of the voting.
Ladcrooks were betting 10/1 ON that remain would win as the polls closed, which to me implies that thousands and thousands of people who voted leave did so furtively with the immigration issue as their priority.
It's a disgrace but there it is.
Let's hope we can find a way through this.

I said a day before the vote on here that a simple YES or NO vote on something as far reaching as the EU membership was a ludicrous proposition and I still think that. I watched the BBC coverage of the votes and OUT campaigners mainly from the Tory party were justifying it on the grounds that 'major constitutional issues' should always go to a referendum. However, this is/was clearly something way way way beyond that, something that covered so many different aspects of our lives grouped together indiscriminately.

[BobG]

I'm sad to say that this is, without any question at all, the single most profound thing that has happened to, or in or by this country in my entire lifetime. And I'm not a spring chicken any more. This will have consequences, big consequences, for decades. Some will no doubt be beneficial consequences. Some will be harmful. Where that balance will lie is a perfectly proper subject to debate. Idiotic responses like all of yours Rigo, do nothing except demonstrate the shallowness of your thinking. We can't all agree with each other. It would be 1984 if we did. But to deny the spark of ideas clashing, the rigour of arguments being tested, is downright shameful. I deplore the result today, but even more than that, I deplore the real and deep damage that this campaign has done to the fabric, the values and the behaviours of the United Kingdom. Those are prices we should not have had to pay. And they are prices we will all sorely, badly, regret sooner rather than later. The whole nation has been badly, very badly, let down by its politicians for 30 years on this subject. Polarisation and xenophobia are not good tools with which to maintain a civilised existence. So wind your neck in Rigo. Think about causes and effects for once - rather than spouting your personal prejudices. We've all got 'em. But some people can recognise in themselves what they are.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

No. I haven't had the time.

I've spent the evening explaining to my part-Italian 9 year old that he won't have to "f**k off home" as someone kindly suggested to him at school today.

So you'll understand if I'm a bit short f**king tempered.

What you're really bad tempered about is the fact that people went out yesterday, voted based on their beliefs/gut instinct, and collectively that has outweighed the views of those that wanted to mean (which includes YOUR beliefs).

For weeks, on here and probably out door-knocking, you've pushed your REMAIN ideologies down the throats of people - it hasn't worked and you don't like it.

We're leaving the EU, so you've either got two options - one is to be a doom-mongering, doom merchant for however long and be a union-sceptic or the second option is to prepare for a future (whatever that does actually hold).

How on earth did this country overcome the Second World War (something far more testing than we've ever gone through in our lifetime) and survive in the 1950s/1960s, eh? Long before the European Union came to a fruition.

Regards

An uneducated LEAVE supporter, who voted based on what was important to me.

Thanks Rigo.

He's fine now by the way. Off to sleep.

[Mr1Croft]

I'm sad to say that this is, without any question at all, the single most profound thing that has happened to, or in or by this country in my entire lifetime. And I'm not a spring chicken any more. This will have consequences, big consequences, for decades. Some will no doubt be beneficial consequences. Some will be harmful. Where that balance will lie is a perfectly proper subject to debate. Idiotic responses like all of yours Rigo, do nothing except demonstrate the shallowness of your thinking. We can't all agree with each other. It would be 1984 if we did. But to deny the spark of ideas clashing, the rigour of arguments being tested, is downright shameful. I deplore the result today, but even more than that, I deplore the real and deep damage that this campaign has done to the fabric, the values and the behaviours of the United Kingdom. Those are prices we should not have had to pay. And they are prices we will all sorely, badly, regret sooner rather than later. The whole nation has been badly, very badly, let down by its politicians for 30 years on this subject. Polarisation and xenophobia are not good tools with which to maintain a civilised existence. So wind your neck in Rigo. Think about causes and effects for once - rather than spouting your personal prejudices. We've all got 'em. But some people can recognise in themselves what they are.

BobG

My thoughts entirely Bob.

I want to say it was a campaign well fought on both sides but sadly that wasn't the case. Both sides were guilty of throwing muck at either side that it became about personnel involved over politics, scaremongering and peddling xenophobic values and hatred. We never as a nation got a debate, we just kept getting told who said what and why we shouldn't believe them. It would appear that in the end people turned off from the public debate and voted on their instinct.

Constitutional changes needed in terms of UK/EU law being separated, Scottish and possibly Irish referendum and if the electorate are going to show such disregard to expert advice then perhaps its time we revisit the debate regarding the House of Lords.

[Not Now Kato]

And the Dow Jones is down 3%
The Dax down 7%
The Nikkei down 8%
The FTSE250 down 8%
The CAC down 8%
The Nasdaq down 8%

Just ripples...

It's not even been 24 hours after the people democratically voted to leave. 

Don't you realise that, despite all the scaremongering from your sort, nearly every voting area in this country outside of London wanted to leave the European Union.

You can put whatever spin on it that you like. It's irrelevant - nobody knows what is going to happen.

Lets not forget that this time yesterday, REMAIN were extremely confident (nearly bordering on arrogant) that the people would vote in favour of staying in the EU.

Look how that worked out. 

Are you saying people were stupid enough to vote for something when they didn't know what was going to happen?  Oh, wait a minute.................
 

[Jonathan]

Well after a momentary relapse where the fate of the national team is concerned, I'm back to agreeing with BST again.

I'm gutted at the result we've woken up to this morning, and genuinely anxious about the repercussions. Rigo patronisingly comments that those in suits don't like uncertainty. I'd say most people fear instability and uncertainty where their livelihood is concerned. The snap reaction of the markets was inevitable and of course there's nothing tangible for the everyday man or woman to feel today. But it's not just today that bothers me, it's what will follow in the coming months and years. We know there'll be a period of recession, what we don't know is how long and how deep as there is no precedent for this. A prolonged period of uncertainty is the only certainty when we face such a long, complex and precarious phase of negotiation.

As always, the extent to which you feel a recession will depend entirely on where you work and what your circumstances are. But the events of the last 24 hours are a serious worry to a lot of people and that's not a nice thing.

What upsets me the most is the utterly disingenuous way in which the campaign to leave has been pushed through and the feeble response of 'remain'. Proven ruthless, immoral and self serving career politicians like IDS, Gove and Johnson have got straight into the head of the neglected North and preyed on this notion that everything we suffer is at the hands of migrants.

I work for a Yorkshire Local Authority and have seen first hand the viscous imbalance in the cuts to public funding across the Northern regions that have left our services stretched to breaking point. If you haven't before, just take the time to look at the formula used and manipulated to squeeze funding across many of our authorities in comparison to the more affluent areas - the south and some of the wealthier Manchester regions.

The result is that people here see deprivation, inaccessibility, growing waiting times, overflowing classrooms and insufficient and substandard housing. These opportunists have tapped right into that and got people exclusively blaming the foreigners and believing that a leave vote will see our own interests looked after. Taking back control for the working people of Britain? Rubbish, utter rubbish. Our own working classes are likely to suffer further at the hands of the recession, and the instability itself will serve to justify the continuation of the conservative austerity measures and the neglect of the North. And that's before we even start on those frankly ludicrous claims about an extra £350million a week for our NHS that, if anyone swallowed, I pity them.

And the defence against this? Cameron and Osbourne - the key protagonists in ideological austerity that have put their foot down and steered us right into this mess. A half hearted Jeremy Corbyn who is a victim of his own honesty and (in fairness to him) offering a pretty balanced appraisal of the benefits and pitfalls of EU membership that has failed miserably to resonate with the electorate. Amidst all this, the voice of almost every credible independent source has been shouted down by lies spread through pathetic right wing social media meme's, and endorsed by the public faces of 'leave.'

I've found myself wishing we had an English equivalent of Nicola Sturgeon - who stands up fiercely for her own people but also upholds genuine core values of compassion, rationality and, crucially, credibility. In England we had nothing of that ilk to stand up to the liars. And the charismatic Johnson and Farage won (misled) minds if not hearts.

If there is one positive I can take from this, and right now I'm struggling, it's the prospect of what may have happened down the line if the vote had edged the other way. Nobody can deny that this episode has been heavily divisive and fostered some pretty widespread xenophobia bordering on tribal vitriol against all things immigration. While remain would have likely seen the economic status quo maintained (and I know that itself is not exactly ideal but I'm risk averse to the alternative) the anti-immigration movement would not have gone away.

Moreover, all the people that have newly engaged in politics purely to rid the country of the 'dirty immigrants' would have rallied against a marginal defeat, cried conspiracy, and I dread to think what would have happened come the next General Election when they all turned up with their ballpoint pens.

Clutching at straws but now I suppose there is more of a chance that they'll see the campaign leaders for what they are when, ultimately, they fail to deliver on promise after promise that our economic stability has been put at risk for. Hopefully the strength of the nation will restore that without too much damage and we can move forward with more informed and engaging debate that inspires fairness and equality in the future. Whether that's after the horse has bolted, I don't know. None of us do.

In the mean time I am worried by this period of instability we face. That's not to sound like we're doomed forever, I don't subscribe to scare mongering. It's certainly not out of the question that we'll end up in a much better place one day, economic prosperity comes in cycles. I just hope we haven't welcomed the risk of too much pain to pin our hopes on getting there, when lots of people are rightly asking the question; getting where? This is a huge and reckless game of chance to offer a supposedly increased notion of sovereignty.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jonathan

That is a quite superb summing up of the situation. One of the most thoughtful posts I've ever seen on here.

The f**king furious side of me, which is rarely far from the surface, particularly nodded furiously at this:

A half hearted Jeremy Corbyn who is a victim of his own honesty and (in fairness to him) a pretty balanced appraisal of the benefits and pitfalls of EU membership that has failed miserably to resonate with the electorate.

That, better than anything else I've read, gets to the core of the Corbyn problem.

He isn't a leader.

He wants to discuss and debate and theorise and consider and argue and above all, to tread a line that allows him to be pure to his ideology. He's ambivalent about the EU. He sees pros and cons. He thinks there are shades of grey.

Very laudable in itself. It reminds me of the very noble and honest and passionate people on the left of the Labour Party that I used to cross intellectual swords with years ago. And their approach would be absolutely the way to be in an ideal world. One where every voter mused and thought about the detail of arguments and rationally came to conclusions.

But real politics, the politics of leadership doesn't work like that. It is a grubby, vicious, nasty thing. It's about distilling a thesis down to a four word sound bite that resonates. It's about convincing people who see you for 10 seconds on the news.

That is what Johnson is superb at, for all that I despise his beliefs. He doesn't believe that the EU is as bad as he painted it. But he knows that in politics, when you make your decision, you go all in. Note how many times he punched the air and said "Let's take back control!" in the past month. A thesis distilled down to four words.

It's not what I want in an ideal world. But it works in this world.

Corbyn, by comparison, was a f**king disaster. He prevaricated. He "on the one hand...on the other hand"ed. He gave no sense of passion or urgency.

Had he come out energetically and fervently for Europe, he WOULD have tipped the balance. But he can't. He's a back room debater. And that makes him a catastrophe as a leader. He gave no LEADERSHIP to Labour supporters. He failed in the simplest essence of what a leader has to do.

He bears a huge responsibility for this disaster. He has to go.

[Jonathan]

I agree entirely. I like the fact that he's able to portray a balanced debate on the pros and cons. On that basis his view of the EU is much more comparable to my own, albeit not always on the same points. Not everything about it is perfect, some things are far from it, but on balance I strongly believe we are / were better off in.

Unfortunately the whole referendum became over politicised - one extreme or the other. Any rational middle ground dismissed and ignored. Evaluating the balance of risk does not make for a good meme when people are waiting to sing Rule Britannia and declare freedom.

Where the Labour Party is concerned, it's with regret that I have to agree it is unable to move forward with Corbyn at the helm. He's an honourable, educated, thoroughly decent and principled man but that's nowhere near enough.

I expect the next few years will present a massive opportunity for a credible opposition.

[albie]

Great post from Jonathan.

BST, I think you are confusing the responsibility of Corbyn with the role of the Labour Party, which is why I posted the Winterson article from the Guardian.

If Corbyn had done exactly what you say, it would have made no impact.

Why.....because Labour have lost the confidence of voters in their core heartlands. This happened before Corbyn became leader, and I doubt it can be recaptured with the current political landscape and the structure of party politics today.

Scotland has rejected the appeal of the traditional Labour package. The cultural bias of northern former industrial communities is set to a different beat than the Labour voters of London and the urban south. I don't know how anyone can make a case which makes sense across the various constituencies that make up the Labour brand.

The old politics is breaking down, and with it the system of governance, and no-one is really speaking to the new agenda. Scotland will move the goalposts by leaving the UK.

Its a Kodak moment, when all interested parties are in denial of the slow dawning realisation that you have diminishing relevance in the future.  To blame Corbyn is to miss the point IMHO.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Both sides negated the effect either were having on this whole process. Downright lies were the order of the day, when all the people needed were the facts and some understanding of the subject matter.
In the end, i think a lot of people voted, out of unhappiness at how things are being run. I don't believe many had faith in either side.
To vote remain in many peoples eyes, was to vote for a lifetime of more of the same.
To leave was risky, but it offered the chance of things getting better. Risk or not, people chose to take a chance that things can get better, i don't think the characters on either came into it as much as is thought!.

[bpoolrover]

Johnathon the problem with sturgeon is she wants Scotland to go it alone do you really think that is the best idea for them?

[Donnywolf]

Johnathon the problem with sturgeon is she wants Scotland to go it alone do you really think that is the best idea for them?

I am not Jonathon and I know nowt much really but I SINCERELY hope when the Scotland Independence stuff starts again they keep it off my TV.

It was almost saturation coverage last time , then the EU Referendum WAS wall to wall (despite nobody saying anything factual - it was all hypothesis)  so for gawds sake NOT AGAIN

....AND BBC please demote the Scottish Premier League back where it belongs in the list of Fixtures and list of latest Tables and that is AFTER Division One NOT straight after The Championship !

Rantsville here I come

[Jonathan]

Johnathon the problem with sturgeon is she wants Scotland to go it alone do you really think that is the best idea for them?

I don't, or at least I didn't until yesterday's result. Now I'm not so sure. But my point was more around her core values and the way in which she puts them across. All through the campaign she made it abundantly clear that it was the reckless and cosmetic austerity that's creating this sense of broken Britain. She wiped the floor with Boris on the issue. However Cameron and Osbourne could never go down that route as its their own brainchild and overriding political agenda. The voice from elsewhere was just not strong enough. I thought the remain campaign over here was pitiful really.

[Filo]

Johnathon the problem with sturgeon is she wants Scotland to go it alone do you really think that is the best idea for them?

But joining the EU is not going it alone, she wants to break with one Union to join another Union. Thats not being a nationalist as she claims to be, and what is really laughable is that Scotland voted to stay in the EU, but had Sturgeon got her way in the Scottish referendum Scotland would have left the EU and would have spent years trying to meet the criteria to join the EU.

[idler]

I'm not euphoric at the result although I voted leave. There will be hard times ahead but we need to move together as a country  after campaigns that have left us more divisive than ever.
Yesterday it was said that there will be profound changes made in the EU.
Maybe if they had been made earlier we might not have voted in the same way. France also said yesterday that they are at the centre of Europe and created it. They intimated becoming it's leader obviously sensing a chance to increase power.I don't think that those sentiments will sit well with Germany.