Is Corbyn senile

[Sammy Chung was King]

I understand all this, not wanting to bicker and argue, and be a serious politician. And he does seem to involve his constituents in many questions towards the prime minister. But he seems to not know what's important, the major issues he seems to duck.
I have the feeling, he was a very reluctant remainer, having previously been all in favour of leaving. He thought he would sit on the sidelines, not really get involved too much, and this would make his position stronger.
But it's seen as another nail in his leadership qualities, people demand an opinion, and it must be a strong one. I think the longer he has been in power, they have whittled away at his values, and he isn't comfortable with it.

He is an intelligent man, he knows how he has to go, i suspect he would have by now, others around him, are not prepared to lose they're positions.
Labour cannot be elected unfortunately, he is not the leader to take them into government. Even a top candidate would find it difficult to chip away at the conservative advantage.
An opportunity is there though, if it is sorted out quickly enough. The conservatives are not in a good position, i suspect they will have lost a lot of votes since being elected.
The press can 'make or break' any leader, unfortunately they don't have much good to say about him. The people need to see strength in each department, if labour are to have a chance. He needs to do the right thing and go!.

Corbyn isn't senile, but his rose bush is, it's all over the place!.

[BobG]

I'm not convinced he is intelligent Sammy - at least not in any practical doing something kind of way. He looks more like a lounge socialist to me: great on theory and theoretical knowledge but completely and utterly useless at anything practical. He calls himself a politician? Yet he persists in ensuring that he will deliver absolutely nothing of any value at all to anybody who supports - or even despises - him. The only thing Corbyn has and will deliver is 20 years of Tory rule. Brilliant result that for a bloke of his alleged political views. Me? I think he's intellectually moribund.

BobG

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't think it's quite sinking in to a few on here just how low the opinion of politicians is rated after the worst political campaign in this country's history.

This from a Corbyn supporter. The irony...

Glynn's statement referred to quantity of MPs. As if the sheer weight of numbers had some bearing on the situation. I was referring to the fact that it probably doesn't given the general malaise in which they are viewed. I don't think that negates the possibility for putting support into any one politician based on principle.

There's an elephant in the room here and it won't go away. And it is that Jeremy Corbyn is currently the only figure on the left of politics who can even come close to wining a general election. The only one. Look at these pathetic attempts by the rest of the party to try and scramble a suitable candidate. Even they know.

Ah, so the sheer weight of numbers of people who voted for Corbyn doesn't mean anything? Glad to get that one sorted out, can we drop that one now?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Its comments just like that Billy that encapsulate just why there is such a movement towards Corbyn.
In the same way that you sit Sneering at those that rally around Corbyn, the PLP have done exactly the same thing, at times showing pure contempt for the people they are elected to represent.
Is Corbyn responsible for the EU referendum vote? Is he balls. The campaign was a disgrace on both sides built on lies, expansions of the truth and pure propaganda.
Your issue has become personal Billy, you know where this is heading and you are spitting your dummy out similar to those that are marching about Brexit. The PLP have rolled the dice and Corbyn has refused to be bullied out. He'll win any leadership contest he's in by a landslide. If they refuse to let him take part they'll destroy a generation of Labour supporters forever.

What utter self-deluding twaddle. Are you seriously trying to tell me that the millions who elected the MPs to represent them before Corbyn became leader are being treated with contempt by the people they voted for because their MPs want to get the power to give their constituents what they voted for? Jesus wept.

[Copps is Magic]

Telling thread; Gossip, vitriol, fantastical musings on his leadership abilities and minor points scoring about the political system. In many ways a microcosm of the wider opposition he faces.

[wing commander]

   The reality is that Corbyn will always have the party membership...The membership is staunch left wing socialist..They simply don't have a horse to back other than Corbyn...It's getting to the stage that the parliamentary labour party is a separate entity to the membership..
    One of Doncasters mp's is Caroline Flint, a mp who voted for all the wars, bombing of Syria etc etc..She doesn't give a toss about Doncaster and she's no socialist but a blairite..She was parachuted in against the local parties wishes because it's a safe seat...Yet the people still voted for her in the thousands...The policy's don't matter,you could stick a red rosette on a donkey in Donny and it would be voted in....
   Those seats don't matter in elections...It's areas like mine who decide elections (nth Lincs) In the last 4 parliament's its been held by Labour twice and Conservatives twice...it's floating and the feeling round here is...How can you vote for a man who cant even run his own party never mind a country?????? It really is that simple....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

I think you missed "entryism" off your little list.

[Copps is Magic]

I feel ya. Terrible isn't it - people becoming political, bolstering labour's support, exercising their democratic rights, having the cheek to have not lived through the 80s.

They'll be voting labour in at the next general election if we give them enough rope.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps.

if you reckon it helps the democratic process to have people sign up to join a party, and immediately launch into calling members who have given their life to that party "Judas", and screaming for them to be deselected, then we really are into interesting times.

And it's not about living through the 80s. It's about understanding the lessons of history before you steam in and make it all about you and what you personally believe.

But, hey. I'm sure you're right and you know how to manage this.

[wilts rover]

Billy, How does history explain the rise and success of Trump, Farage and Podemos in 2016?

It tells me that people are rejecting austerity and main stream politics and politicians. They are looking to figures outside the mainstream who they think are more 'in touch' with them. People like Corbyn.

His message though the referendum campaign was 'dont blame the EU for your problems, blame austerity'. That wasn't the message to win that campaign - but it may very well have won an autumn general election.

We are in a very different place to the 1980's. There is no Soviet Bloc, CND, strong trade union movement or Clause 4. I believe Corbyn would have been more popular in the country than you think - and it is the PLP who have let the movement and the party down.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts. Who are these "people" who are flocking to the Corbyn banner? You're doing the usual left thing of getting excited at the...shall we call it, momentum? of a few tens of thousands of politically interested people and extrapolating it to the "people". 

And the other left thing. Writing the next generation's "If only everyone else hadn't stabbed us in the back" legend.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS

What proportion of the vote did Podemos win the other week? What proportion of the vote did UKIP win in 2015?

If you want Labour to be a niche party on the Left, winning 15-20% of the vote and saying,"Look! We told you loads of people agreed with us!" then we have different aims for politics.

If we had PR, I'd agree with you. I'd join the left-wing Labour split. But we don't. And positioning Labour anywhere but as part of a broad centre-left coalition party in our system is a recipe for electoral irrelevance. However warm a feeling it might give you personally. 

[Copps is Magic]

Interesting and timely article this Billy, light reading perhaps. Seems to mirror the debate going on here.

On Corbyn's support, you wouldn't want to get melodramatic now would you? With comments like 'niche party with 15% of the vote' you do run the risk of doing that. In the by-elections labour's share of the vote has increased markedly in all but one constituency (where it stayed the same) while the Tories share has decreased. I take it you already know this keeping up with politics as you do but then rather odd to suggest Labours vote share will decrease dramatically.

Regarding the elephant in the room, Corbyn has strong support among labour members and supporters that is clear, but its also becoming clear he is currently both one of the most visible and trusted politicians in the country (relatively speaking). I noted you suggested Miliband mark II as a viable leader earlier. I think after I read that I realised that even you probably know at this stage he is the only candidate, as do certain Labour MPs, who know at this stage their only redress is to pressure him to step down.

[albie]

Would it not be more relevant to consider if Labour is senile?
Does the Labour Party in its current form mean the same thing to future voters that it did in the past, and if not, what to do about it?

Stimulating discussion;
Labour can still survive, but only if it abandons hope of governing alone | George Monbiot | Opinion | The Guardian

Ready, Steady,......Off you go!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps mate. Read posts in context. It makes a lot more sense.

That 15% quote. I was responding to Wilts's admiration for how UKIP and Oidemos had captured the mood of "the people".

You're smarter than to just try to score cheap points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS. That Graeber article.

Every generation has its equivalent. They mean well. They REALLY mean well, because they KNOW that they are right and they know that it's them badtards over there who are stopping them.

Most often, they rail on the sideline, telling everyone else that they are wrong. Every once in a while, they get their hands on a chance to put their ideas into practice by taking control of a major party somewhere.

The results are never less than catastrophic. And then they move on, with their legend of why it was everyone else's fault but their. And someone else picks up the pieces and takes on the role of the next generation's demon.

I guess that by saying this, I'm one of the "elite who hate Corbyn", not someone tearing out his non-existent hair at allowing these well-meaning zealots to f**k us over again like they did 35 years ago.

[BobG]

Can someone show me, please, the evidence that this country has moved so markedly to the left then?

I see all the suggestions that Corbyn has support here, suport there, support everywhere; that Corbyn is going to win a general election this autumn. I hope he does. But the Labour Party has 'won' 9 general elections out of 19 since the War. of those wins, one led to a minority government, one had a majority of exactly 3, one had a majority of 4 and one had a majority of 5. One was won after more than decade of austerity and one was won after 4 consecutive Conservative election victories. Several of those Ministries didn't last very long.

To me that little list suggests that this country has only ever been a teensy, weensy little bit left of centre at best, and has often been significantly to the right of that. So what makes all you folk believe that for the first time in 71 years this country has moved, in the space of the 14 months since the last general election, far enough to the left to be sure that Jeremy Corbyn has the magic solution to the Labour Party's troubles? David Milliband, hardly a firebrand of the left, failed to win 14 months ago. The country wasn't left of centre enough even to accept him. So why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn is going to win? As a person he is left of any Labour leader since Michael Foot. As a political gift to the Tory press he is joy unbounded. Why on Earth do you think the Tory press are leaving him relatively alone at the moment? For goodness sake people, look at what is and is not happening and work out why.

If Corbyn is still in charge come the next election, the Labour Party will come back with somewhere around 75 Members of Parliament. He won't even be the leader of the Official Opposition. He will have killed Labour for good. And you lot don't half look like Tory stalking horses tbh.

Cheers

BobG

[wilts rover]

Billy, so you dont believe that UKIP played a major part in the referedum result last week by acting as a catalyst for disatisfaction?

Following last Sunday's election Podimos gained 25% of the vote - just behind the People's Party on 29% which makes them the second largest party in Spain. If they can agree an alliance with the Socialist Workers Party this time, they will run the country. Not bad for a party that was only formed in 2014.

You have yet to comment on Trump?

I still maintain that these examples show a movement against mainstream politics, that 'outsiders' are capturing the mood of the people and Corbyn is our version of that. A third of the country didn't vote at the last election - that's a third of the country who didn't like Cameron or Milliband and wouldn't vote for them. That's Corbyn's potential electorate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

I am not in any way disputing the fact that there is a swell of opinion against mainstream politics and politicians.

The issue is, where that goes. You are prsenting a string of heroic outsiders who have one thing in common in general elections. They are all losers. And you are presenting these as though they are an example to the Labour Party.

Now, if your agenda is that you'd be happy to see Labour out of power for a generation so long as that results in a radicalisation of the base for the future, then be upfront and say it.

Or, even better, form your own Podemos or UKIP and put the heavy lifting in that way.

[MachoMadness]

Now, if your agenda is that you'd be happy to see Labour out of power for a generation so long as that results in a radicalisation of the base for the future, then be upfront and say it.

I personally would be happy with that as someone who doesn't see a centrist Labour Party being in power, or even in sight of it, for a long time. Are people really so willing to have a lame duck Labour party, pootling along winning safe seats and f**k all else for a decade because having a Labour Party be opposition in name alone is the most important thing? Is that what politics is about? The art of the possible but probably not?

What a genuinely lamentable state of affairs. And it's not because of Corbyn, either.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS Wilts. Your Podemos election figures are wrong. You're quoting a late opinion poll, not the election result.

[MachoMadness]

Noteworthy today that several Labour MPs (although the main target for criticism is Ian Austin) telling Corbyn to "sit down and shut up" among other things as he gave his response to the Chilcot report.

But no, it's definitely Corbyn that's the issue. No wonder deselections are being talked about.

[Copps is Magic]

Disgraceful. A measured and respectful speech interrupted by a jock strap C)nt. Should be relieved of his duties.

[wilts rover]

PS Wilts. Your Podemos election figures are wrong. You're quoting a late opinion poll, not the election result.

Not quite. I have quoted their % of the vote (which went up) but should have quoted the number of seats (which stayed the same) and means they are the third party.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

No. The figures you are quoting are precisely the vote shares reported in a late opinion poll.


The actual vote shares in the Election were.

Podemos: 21.1%
PSOE 22.2%
PP 33.3%

The seat shares were:
Podemos: 20.3%
PSOE: 24.3%
PP: 39.1%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election,_2016

[MickyNorburys90shat-trick]

   The reality is that Corbyn will always have the party membership...The membership is staunch left wing socialist..They simply don't have a horse to back other than Corbyn...It's getting to the stage that the parliamentary labour party is a separate entity to the membership..
    One of Doncasters mp's is Caroline Flint, a mp who voted for all the wars, bombing of Syria etc etc..She doesn't give a toss about Doncaster and she's no socialist but a blairite..She was parachuted in against the local parties wishes because it's a safe seat...Yet the people still voted for her in the thousands...The policy's don't matter,you could stick a red rosette on a donkey in Donny and it would be voted in....
   Those seats don't matter in elections...It's areas like mine who decide elections (nth Lincs) In the last 4 parliament's its been held by Labour twice and Conservatives twice...it's floating and the feeling round here is...How can you vote for a man who cant even run his own party never mind a country?????? It really is that simple....

In between all the slanging matches in this thread lies Wing Co's post which is absolutely spot on (and which everyone seems to have ignored).  I am the archetypal floating voter, generally making my mind up who to vote for in the few weeks leading up to an election.  I live in the Midlands these days and the vast majority of times that I talk about politics with anyone and mention Corbyn's name their first instinct is to laugh.  Irrespective of his principals/ideas etc. many of which I'm sure would benefit me and millions like me, he is not seen as a credible Prime Minister by the majority of people outside of the Labour left wing heartlands (and by a lot in those heartlands by the look of things) - and on that basis he is never going to generate the support and votes the Labour party needs to form a government.

[Copps is Magic]

The reply to that would depend on whether you see him as a 'joke' based on his ideas, principles and policies or on his public persona. A thread that started with calling him senile, navigated to calling him intellectually moribund and has settled on him being a joke. This is what people are fed up about.

I think you're better than that Mick. I think you have a greater responsibility to make voting decision not based solely on a whim.

Irrespective of his principals/ideas etc. many of which I'm sure would benefit me and millions like me

Start here and work out what's wrong with this sentence.

[MickyNorburys90shat-trick]

Maybe I have done myself a bit of an injustice there (you might argue I have also done that to Corbyn).  I do take a considerable amount of time to review the pro's and con's of my decisions, especially when it come to voting, but as I don't feel tied to any particular party, I can take my time to digest all the arguments, which usually means I will be prepared to make a 'late' decision.

Whether you like it or not, the problem is many people do see him as a joke and won't be able to see him as Prime Minister material no matter what benefits he may bring.  I like to think that I am a reasonable person who can make his mind up based on facts rather than perceptions, but I really struggle to see him as he leader of the country - I would be concerned as to whether he could lead an effective cabinet and even more so that he could stand up for the country and be listened to by other world leaders on global matters.  I don't think I am alone on that.

[Colemans Left Hook]

well 84 conservative MP's are

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

Your principles are admirable, but they aren't shared by the majority of the population.

Most people don't cogitate heavily on political detail. They see ten seconds of someone on the news. They need to see a crisp, unequivocal message, crisply delivered.

You don't like it. I don't like it. But that is how the world operates.

You know how to assess and critique claims and counter-claims. Most people don't. In the last few days before the Referendum, nearly 50% of people in a poll we sti of the opinion that a) the £350m a week was real, b) we were going to get that back and c) it was likely that a decent wedge would be spent on public service.

And that is what you are up against.

It's the reason why I was so f**king incandescent with Corbyn treating the campaign as an opportunity for nuanced debate, whilst Boris was hammering the "Let's Take Our Country Back" line.

It's shit, but that is what politics is. Get out of your bubble and talk to people about what they think of Corbyn as leader material. I don't move in particularly apathetic or particularly right-wing circles, but for every person I know who likes Corbyn, I know 4 who roll their eyes and shrug their shoulders when his name is mentioned.