Record possibilities?

[NickDRFC]

*WARNING* - Pragmatists might as well stop reading here, this post is for the dreamers...

I spent a bit of time earlier looking at the table and the likelihood of us hitting 100 points. We are currently on 58 points with 19 games to go - 14 wins will take us to 100 points, the first time a club has done it in this league for 30 years. 15 wins would give us 103 points, which would better Swindon's record for the 4th tier of 102 points. We are averaging 2.148 points per game at the moment, 103 points would need a slight uplift to 2.239. I think this is entirely possible - the keeper looks a real find, defensively we look far more solid than earlier in the season, Connor Grant is growing in influence game by game and there's a real confidence oozing through the squad. I could really see us doing this.

Would be a nice symmetry as well given we have the record low haul for this league!

100 goals probably not out of the question either but I reckon it's less likely, I'm sure that even though we are likely to hammer a team or two soon we will also likely grind out a few 1-0's. Our current average for goals would see us score 94, and given we've been pretty free scoring all season it's possibly a bit of an ask.

[IDM]

Would be a nice symmetry as well given we have the record low haul for this league!

I am sure we already hold the points record for a 42 game season, may have been div 3N in those days though, and at 2 points for a win.

100 points isn't unrealistic at all seen as we have taken 31 from the last available 36.  Carry on at that rate and that's worth another 49 points..

[PopStander]

Is a record to win this league 4 times ? (If we do it)

[IDM]

No I think Chesterfield have won level 4 four times..

[Dutch Uncle]

Would be a nice symmetry as well given we have the record low haul for this league!

I am sure we already hold the points record for a 42 game season, may have been div 3N in those days though, and at 2 points for a win.

Extract from an article I wrote for the Fanzine:

The best Football League season ever?

   In the first Football League season after the Second World War, 1946-47, we played a total of 42 matches in the old regionalised Division 3 North, won 33 of them, drew six and lost only three. This gave us a total of 72 points with the old system of two points for a win, or the equivalent of 105 points if three points for a win are used. Is this the best league season ever?

   Well it is certainly the best league season by any Football League team ever when 42 or more matches were played. Neither Rovers points total of 72 (at two per win at an average of 1.714 points per game) or 105 (at three per win at an average of 2.500 points per game) have been equalled in a 42 match season. Only Lincoln (1975-76: 74 points at two per win, 106 at three), Sunderland (1988-99: 105 points at three per win, or 74 points at two) and Reading (2005-06: 106 points at three per win, or 75 points at two) have beaten the Rovers points totals set in 1946-47, but these were all over 46 matches and are clearly worse seasons as far as the points per game average is concerned. This covers all seasons back to 1919-20 and the restart of league football after the First World War.

   Prior to the First World War the number of games in a Football League season varied between 22 and 38. Rovers points per games averages were beaten on three occasions, but of course no team achieved the 72 or equivalent of 105 points. So it is tempting to say that Rovers have the outright best season record in the last 100 years since the Football League reached its full size.

   However there is one irritating flaw in that argument. In 2004-05 Chelsea played 38 games in the Premier League, gained 95 points for a points per game average of 2.500 at three per win - equal to Rovers in 1946-47. However at two points per win Chelsea would have won 66 points at an average of 1.737 per game, and so broke Rovers long standing record. Who says money never buys success?   

The worst Football League season ever?

   We have not one, but two seasons that have some claim to being the Football League's worst.

   In 1904-05, using two points for a win, Rovers (jointly with Loughborough  1899-1900) set the record for fewest points in a Football League season, a mere 8 points in 34 games. Although Rovers and Loughborough share this lowest ever points per game average using two points per win, converting to three points per win would mean Loughborough had a lower points per game average.  Derby nearly 'beat' this record in 2007-08, with their final tally of 11 points in the Premier League being the equivalent of 10 points at two per win. This ensured their relegation to the Championship that season. Remind me who they played in the first match the next season?

   What is (nearly) indisputable is that in 1997-98 we also set the lowest number of points in a full 46 match season with 20 (the equivalent of 16 at two per win). That season included a record of 34 defeats - the worst ever by any club in a Football League season. Luton finished with 26 points (at three per win) from 46 games in 2008-09, which would equate to 13 points at two per win, since they had 13 wins. However they had 30 points deducted, and it would make more sense to deduct 20 points in the two per win comparison.

[Campsall rover]

We will be the only team to win both the 3rd tier ( inc div 3 north ) and 4th tier 8 times. Will be 4 each.
Yes I am convinced we will achieve 100 points this season.
14 wins or 13 wins and & 3 draws.
Can you see us loosing more than 3 more games this season.
I cant but yes I always think positively where the Rovers are concerned.
Come on boys you can and will do it. 

[Dutch Uncle]

I think we are far from guaranteed to win the title, and I think Plymouth will push us all the way

Promotion is ours to lose though, although we know Rovers never do it the easy way. 

[Campsall rover]

Nobody used the word guaranteed least of all me.
Let's wait and see, we will know the answer by Easter Monday in MY HUMBLE OPINION and that's all it is an opinion.

[Mike_F]

I'd LOVE to win the title but agree with Dutch, it'll be a fight to the end as Plymouth haven't had their usual collapse... yet!

If we don't go up automatically from this position it'll be a bloody travesty.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

It's a big ask as we will have to be at our ruthless best as the form book goes out of the window when teams fight for promotion, play-offs and relegation.

For what it's worth I calculated we finish with 98 points but I'll take 88 providing it gets us up!

[karldew]

Paddy Power offering 5/1 for us to finish with 100+ points..

[ravenrover]

I couldn't care less about whether it's 78 88  or 108 as long as it is 1 point more than the 4th placed team, although I would love us to go up as Champions

[Colemans Left Hook]

I think we are far from guaranteed to win the title, and I think Plymouth will push us all the way

Promotion is ours to lose though, although we know Rovers never do it the easy way. 

sorry to tell you the facts of life


but

every club out there says "that they never do it the easy way "

[Pancho Regan]

Would be a nice symmetry as well given we have the record low haul for this league!

100 points isn't unrealistic at all seen as we have taken 31 from the last available 36. 

Wow - I knew we were on a good run but that's an impressive points haul from the last 12 games!

[Alan Southstand]

Our next 6 fixtures are:

Yeovil   v   Doncaster
Doncaster   v   Morecambe
Newport    v   Doncaster
Carlisle   v   Doncaster
Doncaster   v   Luton
Doncaster   v   Accrington
        
Plymouth have:

Yeovil   v   Plymouth
Cambridge   v   Plymouth
Plymouth   v   Exeter
Plymouth   v   Orient
Hartlepool   v   Plymouth
Luton   v   Plymouth


Carlisle have:

Carlisle    v   Barnet
Orient   v   Carlisle
Carlisle    v   Blackpool
Carlisle    v   Doncaster
Wycombe   v   Carlisle
Carlisle    v   Portsmouth

[Mike_F]

the form book goes out of the window when teams fight for promotion, play-offs and relegation.

That's one of those clichés that we all spin out from time to time but is there any statistical evidence to back it up?

Do we see average points tallies changing dramatically in the final quarter of the season or is it just one of those things that we use to justify losing what should be a winnable game (or vice versa)?

[drfchound]

Mike, without checking the stats, my guess is that it is true.
When i was a kid and my dad used to do the "8 from 12" draws on the coupon i always noticed that towards the end of a season the teams at the foot of each division used to win and draw games that you wouldn't expect them to.

[Sammy Chung was King]

the form book goes out of the window when teams fight for promotion, play-offs and relegation.

That's one of those clichés that we all spin out from time to time but is there any statistical evidence to back it up?

Do we see average points tallies changing dramatically in the final quarter of the season or is it just one of those things that we use to justify losing what should be a winnable game (or vice versa)?

Not really the stats tend to carry on much the same on average. Most teams who badly need to get the points to stay up after a bad season rarely get them. When it's play-off time i tend to go for teams out of form before they start because of the bigger prices available. Not that it's ever paid off but that's another story.
Ever since we got promoted from the conference and we were not in great form near the end of the league season, it's led me down that path-Following Donny has a lot to answer for.