I went back in time 21 years

[Copps is Magic]

Because that is when the 4th tier switched (finally*)to 3 automatically promoted.

Last 21 seasons
Avg points total of league winner = 90
Avg points total of 3rd place = 81
Avg points needed to secure title = 86

Highest Points total of league winner = 102 (Plymouth 2002)
Highest points total of 3rd place = 88 (Hereford 2008)

The points total needed to guarantee promotion would be 86 points. That would also, on average, make us champions. Rovers are currently on track to reach a 100 points total (2.2 ppg). That rate would see us as champions in 100% of instances in the last 21 years.

A drop in form to 1.5 points per game would give us 88 points = Champions in most cases, promoted in all.

A drop in form to 1.25 points per game would give us 84 points = Champions in only a few cases, promoted in most.


Below shows: What percentage of times each points total has been high enough for automatic promotion (last 21 years)

86   100%
85   95%
84   86%
83   81%
82   76%
81   72%
80   72%
79   62%
78   38%
77   34%

The drop off starts at about 79 points. With or above that you still have a good chance of automatic promotion. To get to 79 points Rovers need 1 point per game from now till the end of the season (e.g. 5 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses). To put that into perspective, out of the bottom two; Newport have 16 points in their last 18 games, Orient have 14 points in their last 18. We would need roughly relegation form not to have a high chance of promotion this year.

I also had a look at the No. of goals scored by league leaders in that time. The average is 75 goals. The highest is 96 by Notts County in 2010. If Rovers continue to score at the current rate we will have 95 goals by the end of the season, one behind that record.

In conclusion, Champions probable, promotion almost certain. However, we will fall tantilisingnly short of breaking two modern era records.

*the pedants are after me.

[RedJ]

You are BillyStubbsTears and I claim my £5.

[NickDRFC]

To quote Brian Potter:

"Have you ever kissed a girl, son?"

[Copps is Magic]

Believe it or not this was light saturday relief from the day job.

[redwine]

Believe it or not this was light saturday relief from the day job.

You are Theresa May and I claim my £5



 

[hoolahoop]

Believe it or not this was light saturday relief from the day job.

You are Theresa May and I claim my £5



 

Not here as well , are we running a dictatorship as well ? Sick of seeing her !

[Glyn_Wigley]

Erm...it changed to 3 automatic promotion places in 1986-87...

[Copps is Magic]

Everything has been counted beyond This season when only two clubs were automatically promoted.

[idler]

Those two teams had a whole host of players that we crossed swords with season after season.
Phil Stant anybody?
A very young Kevin Davies as well.

[philsky]

Because that is when the 4th tier switched (finally*)to 3 automatically promoted.

Last 21 seasons
Avg points total of league winner = 90
Avg points total of 3rd place = 81
Avg points needed to secure title = 86

Highest Points total of league winner = 102 (Plymouth 2002)
Highest points total of 3rd place = 88 (Hereford 2008)

The points total needed to guarantee promotion would be 86 points. That would also, on average, make us champions. Rovers are currently on track to reach a 100 points total (2.2 ppg). That rate would see us as champions in 100% of instances in the last 21 years.

A drop in form to 1.5 points per game would give us 88 points = Champions in most cases, promoted in all.

A drop in form to 1.25 points per game would give us 84 points = Champions in only a few cases, promoted in most.


Below shows: What percentage of times each points total has been high enough for automatic promotion (last 21 years)

86   100%
85   95%
84   86%
83   81%
82   76%
81   72%
80   72%
79   62%
78   38%
77   34%

The drop off starts at about 79 points. With or above that you still have a good chance of automatic promotion. To get to 79 points Rovers need 1 point per game from now till the end of the season (e.g. 5 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses). To put that into perspective, out of the bottom two; Newport have 16 points in their last 18 games, Orient have 14 points in their last 18. We would need roughly relegation form not to have a high chance of promotion this year.

I also had a look at the No. of goals scored by league leaders in that time. The average is 75 goals. The highest is 96 by Notts County in 2010. If Rovers continue to score at the current rate we will have 95 goals by the end of the season, one behind that record.

In conclusion, Champions probable, promotion almost certain. However, we will fall tantilisingnly short of breaking two modern era records.

*the pedants are after me.

Cracking work but is any bookie quoting odds for the 100/100 double ?

Surely worth a modest wager ?

[Dutch Uncle]

Erm...it changed to 3 automatic promotion places in 1986-87...

Hi Glyn

You are right of course, but I think CiM has still chosen a good year to start comparisons. Immediately prior to that there had been four seasons of only 42 matches in tier 4, making a direct points comparison invalid. This was due to League restructuring, first to turn a 20 team Division 1 into 22 teams for the Premier League, and then to reduce the Premier League back from 22 to 20 clubs. There were a number of unusual numbers of promotion and relegation positions during these years. Potentially there are some other years earlier which might have been counted, but 1995-96 is a sensible cut-off IMHO.

[Dutch Uncle]

Highest Points total of league winner = 102 (Plymouth 2002)

Rovers are currently on track to reach a 100 points total (2.2 ppg). That rate would see us as champions in 100% of instances in the last 21 years.

*the pedants are after me.

I think I see a contradiction here CiM

A.Pedant

P.S. Good post though, and must be so tempting for BST.

[Copps is Magic]

Not quite.

I've considered the No. of points needed to be champions as one point above the 2nd place finisher, not the actual points that the winner got in each year. It's not perfect by any means but it offers some level of indication. The major draw-back, of course, is that if (say) Plymouth only needed less than 102 points (they only needed 98 actually) those points would go elsewhere (potentially to the 2nd place team). As I say, not perfect.

(Although, 2002 was a particularly strange year for the 4th tier, Luton finished second with a whopping 97 points! Mansfield obtained 79 points and got promoted supporting the idea that 79 usually gets you promoted)

[Dutch Uncle]

Fair explanation CiM.

And that is the eternal conundrum. E.g. to determine likely requirements for automatic promotion do you look at all the 4th place teams' totals and add 1, or look at all the third place teams' points?

Do you take the viewpoint of an outsider trying to gatecrash the table, or the viewpoint of one of the competing teams?

Mathematics or Philosophy?

 

[BobG]

Sorry everybody - I'm probably being dim I know, but can somebody explain for me, please, the difference between the first and the third in CiM's list? To me, they look like one and the same thing - but with different point totals!

Last 21 seasons
Avg points total of league winner = 90
Avg points total of 3rd place = 81
Avg points needed to secure title = 86

BobG

[Dutch Uncle]

Hi Bob

In the philosophy/approach used by CiM, average points to win title equals second team's points plus 1. It is an open philosophical question whether this is a better guide than points won by the Champions each season.

BTW, ever read  ''Goedel, Escher, Bach' by  Hofstadter? Brilliant book but mainly for mathematicians.

[RedJ]

He's right though. Plymouth may have won the league with such and such a total, but they only required one more point than 2nd place.

[Dutch Uncle]

He's right though. Plymouth may have won the league with such and such a total, but they only required one more point than 2nd place.

But on the other hand if you were anyone other than Plymouth that season you would have required 103 points

It all comes down to viewpoint, as I commented a few posts higher up. Do you take the viewpoint of the Champions (second place points plus 1), or that of anyone else (Champions points plus 1)? It is an open question RedJ, without any definitive answer.

[idler]

Hi Bob

In the philosophy/approach used by CiM, average points to win title equals second team's points plus 1. It is an open philosophical question whether this is a better guide than points won by the Champions each season.

BTW, ever read  ''Goedel, Escher, Bach' by  Hofstadter? Brilliant book but mainly for mathematicians.

You should meet my eldest grandson Dutch.
He's been offered a place at Trinity subject to his final A levels.
He's always talking maths and doing equations on serviettes and bits of paper.

[Dutch Uncle]

Great to hear idler. Trinity Oxford, Cambridge or Dublin BTW?

Of course I studied Mathematics and absolutely loved it, and I was very fortunate to make a living out of it later.

But IMHO it is important for gifted children to follow their passion. My youngest daughter, although very good at Maths and Science at school, was passionate about literature, and she has now surpassed any academic achievements I ever attained. Interestingly enough, for her Ph.D. she is now studying medieval manuscripts and a thoroughly scientific approach is required for dating, version control, identification of scribe etc, and her scientific talents are putting her in an excellent position. 

[idler]

It's Trinity Cambridge, Dutch.
He had his interview in December and got his offer while we were away.
I'm so proud of him. He's very much got his feet on the ground though and isn't motivated by money. My daughter thinks that once he goes to uni he'll never leave. Just be happy to be a fellow or a don. As long as he works hard he's going to have an exciting four or five years and meet some very interesting people.

[Dutch Uncle]

That's great Idler - I wish him all the very best, and all being well he will have a wonderful time there.

Edit: PM Sent Idler

[Colemans Left Hook]

Fair explanation CiM.

And that is the eternal conundrum. E.g. to determine likely requirements for automatic promotion do you look at all the 4th place teams' totals and add 1, or look at all the third place teams' points?

Do you take the viewpoint of an outsider trying to gatecrash the table, or the viewpoint of one of the competing teams?

Mathematics or Philosophy?

 

it is obvious that different rules apply this season (normal rules do not apply)

come the 2nd judgement day (this 2nd transfer deadline )you stick with what you have got or haven't got

last season the teams were more even with elastoplast loans

and moreover with the ball going in the net more often ( a combination of normal goals plus cheap penalties ) new records are going to be broken --  (francis lee and his "diving" penalties was ahead of his time more than Martin peters) 

and obviously there are going to be more goals with more liberal interpretation of offside rules

in an ideal world apart from the stats it would be nice to read a summary of the promoted teams

there have been 3 ringers in this league that i can recall

Duncan Mackenzie  g0d knows what year
Campbell (that Arsenal player that scored a few against Rovers in the fa youth final at belle vue) loaned to Orient
& Defoe yes him loaned to Bournemouth

and then there is the money factor

i remember wigan mid table 4th division 20+ them late in the season you know who dave wheelan started investing and yes they all went up
these are external influences

as i've said elsewhere Mansfield are splashing the cash now to a lesser extent