Brexit deal

[IDM]

I would like those people on here, who advocate leaving the EU immediately with no deal, to explain to me precisely, with facts of law and not just opinions, the following:

What would be the status of my immediate family EU citizens living in the UK, and the same question about other relatives who are UK citizens living in the EU.?

With a deal the rights are protected until the end of 2020, and to a degree afterwards under the terms of the deal.

Without a deal, go on, tell me.??

[Copps is Magic]

I think it's been exemplified by now that certain people don't deal with real world problems like that, IDM.

Thanks f**k, is all I can say, that at least the Dutch government has kept me continuously informed of assurances of my right to live and work in the Netherlands in spite of the failings of my own government.

[IDM]

That’s the point though - whilst idealistically leaving the EU politically may be ok and manageable and could be what people voted for,
the practical issues are where it falls over.

To leave we MUST have a deal, period..

[wing commander]

   I see nobody has picked up on Labours red lines on Corbyn's plans to meet the pm to try and find a resolution no longer seem to include a peoples vote at the end of it, if successful..

[Boomstick]

BST. I reckon the majority of the country end up f**ked off after every vote, through elected governments not carrying out promises.

In fear of repeating myself, I saw only two option on the voting slip. Leave and Remain. I understood it to mean we would either remain or leave immediately and perhaps discuss any future deals with the EU after we had left.

I'm 100% sure I wasn't the only one to think that.

100 percent Definately not the only person to think it, and it should have happened that way.
It's only certain MPs, and parts of the media that are trying to stop brexit that has made this whole process alot harder than it should be.

We should be out now, striking deals with the globe and not looking back.
The only way out is a no deal, but unfortunately it won't happen.

Right, let's take that proposition forward. We just 'leave' now. The very next day - how do you get goods, people, and money across the border to the EU?

Great solutions come out of necessity. Anyway
Do you think the EU would blockade any lorries and ships from the UK?

Well that's very interesting. Because if I remember my Chomsky correct what you're hinting at is essentially an anarchist system of government.

Instead of lorry's you know filling out their current forms or whatever, or the guy at the airport checking your passport - your proposition Boomstick, If I'm understanding it correctly, is just 'on you go'.

?

Nothing of the sort, not sure how you got there....

Did you miss the several occasions when the port of calais said they are ready?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Some of the comments on here are deeply depressing.

When has the EU EVER said it will blockade our lorries from entering the EU? When has ANYONE ever said that would happen?

What has the EU EVER done to make it harder for us to trade with them? It is US by advocating No deal that are CHOOSING to make trade with the EU harder.

As for both sides lying therefore trust nobody...if you're determined to stick to that then there's nothing ever going to convince you otherwise. One thing IS true though. Only one side of the debate has had people and organisations found guilty of criminal activity during the campaign. But that doesn't seem to concern folk either.

[Bentley Bullet]

I'm of the understanding that family members who lawfully resided here before Brexit will be allowed to stay in the event of no deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

YES. The port of Calais is ready for the considerably more onerous checks that would be necessary if we left without a deal. Checks that would greatly reduce the flow of goods through the port, making every transaction slower and more costly. And making some time-critical export/imports impossible.

They've never said we're ready and everything will be fine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

[IDM]

I don’t know BB.. these things are covered in any deals, but it is a worry that with no deal all bets are off..

[Dutch Uncle]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

Quite right BST. It will inevitably lead to a border poll with a real possibility of a vote to leave the UK. That will highly likely be accompnied by significant increases in division, tension and violence.

[Axholme Lion]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

The Irish have caused us trouble for years. This would be an ideal opportunity for payback if the EU want to put up a border and it wouldn't be our doing.

[Axholme Lion]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

Quite right BST. It will inevitably lead to a border poll with a real possibility of a vote to leave the UK. That will highly likely be accompnied by significant increases in division, tension and violence.

We would need to send in the army to support our people over there.

[BillyStubbsTears]

AL.

Argh! How many times? It's NOT the EU putting up a border. WTO rules would REQUIRE there to be a border if we're not part of the EU Customs Union.

It's not the EU playing silly buggers. It's a simple requirement that logically flows for US deciding to leave with No Deal.

And there's the problem. the advocates of No Deal have NEVER ONCE addresses this issue beyond saying "Be reyt." That is precisely what I mean when I say that the advocates of No Deal are not engaging with this like grown ups.

Now, you might be happy with that. You might accept the presence of a hard border between NI and Ireland, with all the knock on effects that would have. But get this. if that DID happen, apart from the risk of trouble in NI, it would also seriously damage the Irish economy and Ireland is a part of the EU. And the EU have said that if that is the case, we can forget any deal that helps US out.

That's perfectly reasonable isn't it? If OUR decision badly affects a member of the EU, why on earth should the EU then help us to mitigate the effects on OUR economy that we have chosen to take on?

[Copps is Magic]

BST. I reckon the majority of the country end up f**ked off after every vote, through elected governments not carrying out promises.

In fear of repeating myself, I saw only two option on the voting slip. Leave and Remain. I understood it to mean we would either remain or leave immediately and perhaps discuss any future deals with the EU after we had left.

I'm 100% sure I wasn't the only one to think that.

100 percent Definately not the only person to think it, and it should have happened that way.
It's only certain MPs, and parts of the media that are trying to stop brexit that has made this whole process alot harder than it should be.

We should be out now, striking deals with the globe and not looking back.
The only way out is a no deal, but unfortunately it won't happen.

Right, let's take that proposition forward. We just 'leave' now. The very next day - how do you get goods, people, and money across the border to the EU?

Great solutions come out of necessity. Anyway
Do you think the EU would blockade any lorries and ships from the UK?

Well that's very interesting. Because if I remember my Chomsky correct what you're hinting at is essentially an anarchist system of government.

Instead of lorry's you know filling out their current forms or whatever, or the guy at the airport checking your passport - your proposition Boomstick, If I'm understanding it correctly, is just 'on you go'.

?

Nothing of the sort, not sure how you got there....

Did you miss the several occasions when the port of calais said they are ready?

No, I didn't. I pulled a quote out for you.

https://www.politico.eu/article/calais-president-well-be-ready-even-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

"We should do everything to secure a deal. I cannot begin to imagine there not being a deal between the U.K. and the EU. We share too many things to simply stare at one another like statues."

[DonnyOsmond]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

The Irish have caused us trouble for years. This would be an ideal opportunity for payback if the EU want to put up a border and it wouldn't be our doing.

Wow. So dense.

[idler]

BST. What is valid is that the country had a vote and voted to leave. What tweaks some folk's noses is when people try to justify that the vote isn't valid. What sort of heap of shite do you think that will leave our country in if they get their way and invalidate the vote?

Democracy is dieing in the UK.
We clearly voted to leave. The ballot paper mentioned nothing about begging for a deal.
We should have activated article 50 the day after the referendum and told the EU we were leaving on WTO terms, BUT if THEY wanted a deal with us to come and talk it over. Who in their right mind goes into a negotiation saying we don't want to leave without a deal, thereby throwing your strongest bargaining chip in the bin?
We should leave now. When we make a success of life outside the EU others will follow our brave lead. The GREAT in Great Britain didn't come about from fannying around makes deals with the likes of Luxembourg, it came from doing our business all throughout the world.

What about the Greater in Greater Manchester?

Leave Man City out of this.😉

[BillyStubbsTears]

Another expert opinion to be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807801

[BillyStubbsTears]

And more evidence for you to ignore of foreign-run campaigns pouring money into directing pro-Brexit advertising into folks' Facebook feed.

Pouring money into it and hiding the source of the money.

[Boomstick]

BST. I reckon the majority of the country end up f**ked off after every vote, through elected governments not carrying out promises.

In fear of repeating myself, I saw only two option on the voting slip. Leave and Remain. I understood it to mean we would either remain or leave immediately and perhaps discuss any future deals with the EU after we had left.

I'm 100% sure I wasn't the only one to think that.

100 percent Definately not the only person to think it, and it should have happened that way.
It's only certain MPs, and parts of the media that are trying to stop brexit that has made this whole process alot harder than it should be.

We should be out now, striking deals with the globe and not looking back.
The only way out is a no deal, but unfortunately it won't happen.

Right, let's take that proposition forward. We just 'leave' now. The very next day - how do you get goods, people, and money across the border to the EU?

Great solutions come out of necessity. Anyway
Do you think the EU would blockade any lorries and ships from the UK?

Well that's very interesting. Because if I remember my Chomsky correct what you're hinting at is essentially an anarchist system of government.

Instead of lorry's you know filling out their current forms or whatever, or the guy at the airport checking your passport - your proposition Boomstick, If I'm understanding it correctly, is just 'on you go'.

?

Nothing of the sort, not sure how you got there....

Did you miss the several occasions when the port of calais said they are ready?

No, I didn't. I pulled a quote out for you.

https://www.politico.eu/article/calais-president-well-be-ready-even-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

"We should do everything to secure a deal. I cannot begin to imagine there not being a deal between the U.K. and the EU. We share too many things to simply stare at one another like statues."

Ah, that quote that speaks nothing of the readiness of the port.....

[Boomstick]

Another expert opinion to be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807801

Ah he sticks his oar in to tell us what we already know.
A no deal is a high possibility, and it won't be easy.
Thanks Mark

[Copps is Magic]

I agree that that article doesn't add a great deal to the debate.

But you could, for example, take...

the head of the civil service,  Mark Sedwill's, views into account that food prices would rise, companies would go bust, and the country would be less safe

or, the Deputy assistant police commissioner's view also that the country would be less safe

..into account. I mean it's just two senior public servants with I imagine decades of practical experience.

[Glyn_Wigley]

And then there's the Irish border issue. How do you solve that with No Deal?

The Irish have caused us trouble for years. This would be an ideal opportunity for payback if the EU want to put up a border and it wouldn't be our doing.

Yeah, it was the EU that voted to chuck us out so they could put up hard borders, wasn't it!

[Bentley Bullet]

Haven't food prices always risen?
Haven't companies always gone bust?
Isn't the country less safe than it's ever been already?

[Copps is Magic]

Haven't food prices always risen?

eeer no. Past generations spent a much higher percentage of their income on food compared to what we do today and the wholesale cost of most foods has historically declined over centuries.

But in any case, what a ridiculous set of questions. Do you not get the concept of more or less? Why would you intentionally increase a problem regardless of what general level it stands at before?

"We've got no bog role, love"
"Haven't we been out of bog role for 6 hours?""
"Ya what?"

[The Red Baron]

I can see a scenario where May's Deal passes next week.

On Wednesday May goes to the EU Council to request a lengthy extension. All the EU leaders are broadly in favour, except France,  which applies the veto.

May goes back to Parliament. Because she is bound by the Cooper Act, which is being rushed through Parliament, leaving without a Deal is now against statute. So May re-presents her deal, and says that if it is rejected, she will have no option but to revoke Article 50 under UK law.

The ERG blink, the DUP don't, but there are enough Labour MPs who reckon they could never look their constituents in the eye again if Article 50 was revoked. Via Labour votes and abstentions,  May wins the meaningful vote. We leave the EU on 12th April and move into a transition. May resigns as Tory leader and stays on as caretaker PM ( as Cameron did) until the Tory Party chooses her successor.

Before you say I should join the likes of Michael Dobbs and Jeffrey Archer and write political fiction, just revisit this in 9 days time.

[wilts rover]

Here's a good analogy.

Imagine 100 people want to go out for a meal. They have a vote.

Indian or Lasagne.

they vote 52-48 for Indian.

Then there's a massive argument about what Indian food to have. Some people say the Will of The People is to have a Phal. Others say a Korma would be a safer bet. Some others try to compromise with a Madras.

In the end, they decide to put it to a vote. Phal or Korma.

That would be bonkers wouldn't it? Maybe some of the people who voted for an Indian really wanted a Chicken Tikka Masala, and would prefer  Lasagne to either Phal or Korma. So why not have Lasagne on the second vote?


THAT is a pretty much exact analogy of the whole bleeding process we've been through over the past 3 years.

Why not ask who would like good old Traditional English fish and chips?

Thanks Bentley, a perfect example of how intergrated we really are with Europe in many ways of our 'traditions' and have been for centuries.

Fish and chips isn't English, even the Daily Mail says so. Fried potatoes originated in Belgium & fried fish in Spain/Portugal. They were first served together in the UK by a Jewish immigrant from Poland.

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20130409-chipping-away-at-the-history-of-fish-and-chips
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-4312420/UK-takeaway-favourite-fish-chips-not-British.html

[BillyStubbsTears]

Another expert opinion to be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807801

Ah he sticks his oar in to tell us what we already know.
A no deal is a high possibility, and it won't be easy.
Thanks Mark

You complain when people use blunt language. Now you're complaining about Carney using very diplomatic language. He has to tread a very careful path to avoid appearing overtly politically partisan. So if he is saying this publicly, you can imagine what he considers to be the dangers associated with No Deal, or what he is saying in private.

If he says in public that claims that no deal could be easily managed are absolute nonsense, you can interpret that as him diplomatically saying it would be an utter f**king catastrophe.

Or you could ignore it and say that we survived The Blitz, The Plague and The Ice Ages, so we'll survive No Deal.

Oh aye. And you say he's sticking his oar in. This is the professional whose job it is to make sure our economy is protected against the worst that events can throw at it. And you think him commenting on the effect of Brexit is him sticking his oar in.

Serious question. Is there any possible contribution from anyone that would make you sit back and consider that you might be wrong on the seriousness of the consequences of No Deal?

And while we're at it, in your rush to suggest we meet, you didn't answer my other serious question last night, about how much you personally would be prepared to lose in order to take back control. That wasn't a bullying question or a trick or anything like that. It was genuine interest.

[albie]

TRB,

I certainly think that is a possible outcome.

There is an interesting piece on the shapeshifting in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/03/theresa-may-labour-brexit-old-strategy

I'm afraid sincerity died a long time ago in this debate.

I think Corbyn needs to show willing, but there is no evidence that May has ceased to believe in the importance of her "red lines".

Presentational posturing to manipulate the ERG fundamentalists.

[The Red Baron]

I said yesterday that the olive branch to Corbyn was about getting the ERG on board.

There is someone far cleverer than May thinking up this strategy, which probably explains yesterday's very long Cabinet and the curious fact that no Ministers present at that meeting have resigned. I suspect Geoffrey Cox is at the bottom of this, and I think a fiver on him to be next PM could be a decent investment.