Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davies_will/status/1143860276430823425

If we had Ref2 and a transferrable vote, there's a decent chance that the result WOULD be a sensible, least damaging Brecit. Option three here, which has by far the highest number of first and second preferences.

Would that satisfy you Brexit supporters? I'd accept that as the option that resulted in least overall damage to the economy and social cohesion.

One thing is clear. No Deal wouldn't stand a chance. It is NOT what the public want. Clearly. So if that is rammed through, THAT would be a democratic outrage.

[SydneyRover]

Boris dips into the brexit magic pudding again!

"chances of no-deal Brexit are 'a million-to-one against''

Tory leadership frontrunner’s claim comes one day after he said UK will leave EU ‘come what may, do or die’

Boris: "has said the chances of a no-deal Brexit are a “million-to-one against”, despite promising to leave on 31 October whether or not he has managed to strike a new agreement with the European Union"

Without any plan he is promising to take the UK out but also states that a no-deal is a million to 1. We know that the EU and the US have the Irish border in the non-negotiable safe so if we do leave we will still be in a customs union.

It's likely if we leave without a deal my betting is the neither the EU nor the US will trade with us until a backstop is sorted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/26/boris-johnson-chances-of-no-deal-brexit-are-a-million-to-one-against

[SydneyRover]

Raab, another nutjob trying to indemnify his own party and blame the EU (28 countries including us) for the conservative party's future failings!!

Raab ''who is backing the frontrunner after being knocked out of the leadership contest, said any motion from MPs against a no-deal Brexit would have “zero legal effect” and could be overridden.

''He also said it would be “the EU’s fault” if Britain leaves on World Trade Organization terms because it was possible to strike a better Brexit deal before the end of October if there was sufficient political will''

Little Britain eat your heart out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/26/boris-johnson-could-ignore-efforts-to-block-no-deal-says-raab

[SydneyRover]

And on the flip side a bit of common sense.

''No matter who gets into No 10, their Brexit plans are fantasy''

''Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt claim the backstop problems can be fixed by 31 October. They are in for a rude awakening''

''This does not appear to be a question 84% of Conservative party members are remotely bothered with, as they would prefer the fantasy of an immediate “clean Brexit”. They welcome their witching hour of 11pm on 31 October becoming Independence Day, as if it’s some sort of Hollywood blockbuster, with no deal''

''Johnson is not one to worry about details, given the fact that in January Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy negotiator, said: “We’ve looked at every border on this Earth, every border the EU has with a third country – there’s simply no way you can do away with checks and controls.”''

''Then there is the clause in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. Section 10, on the subject of the Irish border, states that nothing in this act “authorises regulations which … diminish any form of North-South cooperation provided for by the Belfast agreement”. This is likely to mean that the Northern Ireland backstop will stay in place until MPs reach an agreement that honours the UK’s obligations under the Good Friday agreement''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/brexit-fantasy-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt

[SydneyRover]

Wing Commander, you have to be concerned for your business in the face of brexit surely?

''Tory leadership: No-deal Brexit could shut down car plants in UK, Japan tells Johnson and Hunt - live news''

''There are over 1,000 Japanese companies operating in the United Kingdom, so we are very concerned with this no-deal Brexit. That would have a very negative impact on their operations ...

There are a few Japanese auto manufacturers operating in the United Kingdom, and some parts are coming from continental Europe. Right now they have a very smooth operation; their stock for each part is only for a few hours.

But if there is a no-deal Brexit, and if they have to go through actual customs inspections physically, those operations may not be able to continue. And many companies are worried about the implications, because they do not know what is going to happen. They don’t know what happens legally or physically. So some companies have already started moving their operations to other places in Europe.

We do not want to disrupt the economic relationship with the UK. So we’ve been asking the UK government: let the Japanese companies know what they can expect and things should happen smoothly without any disruption.

Whenever we have had meetings [with the UK government] that was the issue - please no no-deal Brexit''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jun/27/tory-leadership-latest-news-boris-johnson-hunt-no-deal-brexit-could-shut-down-car-plants-in-uk-japan-tells-johnson-and-hunt-live-news

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davies_will/status/1143860276430823425

If we had Ref2 and a transferrable vote, there's a decent chance that the result WOULD be a sensible, least damaging Brecit. Option three here, which has by far the highest number of first and second preferences.

Would that satisfy you Brexit supporters? I'd accept that as the option that resulted in least overall damage to the economy and social cohesion.

One thing is clear. No Deal wouldn't stand a chance. It is NOT what the public want. Clearly. So if that is rammed through, THAT would be a democratic outrage.

No interest in this then?

I'll give you my take.

The Leave vote was a knife edge decision.

That meant that if you REALLY wanted to take the majority of the  country with you, you needed to go for the softest of Brexits. Which is option 3 on that poll. That's only the FIRST best for a minority of people, but a clear majority are prepared to take that as second best.

The May, Johnson  and Farage won't accept that for party political reasons, because they want us out of the CU and SM. Despite having no majority wanting that. And despite Johnson and Farage specifically campaigning in 2016 for the sort of  compromise type Brexit that they now say is a betrayal of The Will of The People.

Corbyn won't accept that because he wants us out of the SM for ideological reasons.

So we've had a total lack of vision on BOTH sides about what would actually be a sensible compromise that could take the country with them.

Instead, because the Right have been insisting on a Hard Brexit that is the first  preference of a small minority, and doesn't even have majority support when you add in second preferences, there, we've headed into this polarised situation. Because the Brexit vote has been hijacked by the Right and interpreted as meaning a Hard Brexit, first choice opinion on the other side is to kill Brexit altogether.

And so, because there's no leadership for the soft compromise option, and because there is no possibility whatsoever of Johnson being able to re-negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement before October, we're now looking at the options being No Deal or No Brexit.

Didn't have to be like that, but that's where we are now. Instead of a compromise that everyone could have grumbled about but accepted, we're left with options that will seriously f**k off nearly half the population. All through pygmy leadership from some politicians (May, Corbyn) and bad faith from others (Farage, Johnson).

[SydneyRover]

BST, it looks like most of those that voted to leave as a protest, at just about everything want to ignore the massive amount of data that now exists showing it will be a frigging disaster and will even go as far as supporting Johnson and Farage to get it.

As someone wrote the other day the tories are now more a party of faith than of ideas and you'd have to go back to Ted Heath to find one of their leaders that really wanted to govern for the whole population.

[wilts rover]

Fascinating.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davies_will/status/1143860276430823425

If we had Ref2 and a transferrable vote, there's a decent chance that the result WOULD be a sensible, least damaging Brecit. Option three here, which has by far the highest number of first and second preferences.

Would that satisfy you Brexit supporters? I'd accept that as the option that resulted in least overall damage to the economy and social cohesion.

One thing is clear. No Deal wouldn't stand a chance. It is NOT what the public want. Clearly. So if that is rammed through, THAT would be a democratic outrage.

No interest in this then?

I'll give you my take.

The Leave vote was a knife edge decision.

That meant that if you REALLY wanted to take the majority of the  country with you, you needed to go for the softest of Brexits. Which is option 3 on that poll. That's only the FIRST best for a minority of people, but a clear majority are prepared to take that as second best.

The May, Johnson  and Farage won't accept that for party political reasons, because they want us out of the CU and SM. Despite having no majority wanting that. And despite Johnson and Farage specifically campaigning in 2016 for the sort of  compromise type Brexit that they now say is a betrayal of The Will of The People.

Corbyn won't accept that because he wants us out of the SM for ideological reasons.

So we've had a total lack of vision on BOTH sides about what would actually be a sensible compromise that could take the country with them.

Instead, because the Right have been insisting on a Hard Brexit that is the first  preference of a small minority, and doesn't even have majority support when you add in second preferences, there, we've headed into this polarised situation. Because the Brexit vote has been hijacked by the Right and interpreted as meaning a Hard Brexit, first choice opinion on the other side is to kill Brexit altogether.

And so, because there's no leadership for the soft compromise option, and because there is no possibility whatsoever of Johnson being able to re-negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement before October, we're now looking at the options being No Deal or No Brexit.

Didn't have to be like that, but that's where we are now. Instead of a compromise that everyone could have grumbled about but accepted, we're left with options that will seriously f**k off nearly half the population. All through pygmy leadership from some politicians (May, Corbyn) and bad faith from others (Farage, Johnson).

Corbyn said twice on Monday that any deal brought forward by a new PM (including no deal) should be put back to the people.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jun/24/tory-leadership-latest-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-calls-boris-johnson-a-coward-for-dodging-tv-debates-and-interviews-live-news
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1143614438534238208

But don't let that stop you from misrepresenting him

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Once again, you are reading what you want me to believe rather than what I am saying.

Is it correct that Corbyn has, from the moment of the vote in 2016, ruled out Labour actively supporting a Brexit that meant us staying in the Single Market?

That was what I said. Do you agree with that?

[wilts rover]

Sorry Billy, yes I didn't read your post properly and you are correct. Corbyn has never supported staying in the SM - but instead proposed having a new 'close strong relationship' to it.

Hence Labour supporting the Common Market 2.0 proposals in the indicative votes.

[selby]

A parliamentary question  by John Mann showed  the following figures for medical expenses claimed between us and other Eu member countries.  Britain paid £674 million  and claimed £49 in return.
   France claimed £147,685,772   Britain £6,730,292
   Germany         £ 25,873,954               £2,159,664
    Italy               £7,304,484                 £1,510,850
    Poland            £4,336,701                 £1,523,402
    Spain             £223,290,021              £3,412,338
  were some of the biggest claimants from our NHS sort this sort of thing out and the NHS would not need any more money, we are being played for fools.
 
   And the doctors want to go even further, it is time someone made the hospitals do their job, for the sake of every tax payer in the country.
   
   DOES ANYONE THINK THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE ON THE SIDE OF A BUS?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby
1) Those figures aren't particularly surprising. There are a several hundred thousand UK ex-pat pensioners living in France and Spain. Inevitably, they will incur high medical costs. By contrast, most EU nationals living in the UK are prime age/health workers who require relatively little health treatment.

2) This doesn't cover the whole issue though. Another problem is that the NHS simply doesn't claim what it should from other countries for treating their citizens in the UK. The Nuffield Trust estimates that costs us £300m per year. That is 100% OUR problem, not the EU's.

3) Even if the £600m difference was genuinely due to us being screwed by the EU (it's not: see 1 and 2 above) it is chicken feed. It's less than 0.5% of the NHS budget. About 0.75% of the amount we've lost due to our depressed economic performance since the referendum. And less than 20% of the amount the Govt pissed up a wall on No Deal planning for the No Deal that never happened in March.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Thank you. We're agreed that Corbyn has wanted us out of the SM. I've no idea what "close, strong relationship to it" means. But then I've no idea what much that Corbyn says on this topic means. He's frequently said that we have to leave the SM because SM membership is only for EU members. Which, I'm sure surprises Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein who are SM members but not EU members.

You see my problem in not really understanding what Corbyn's take is on Brecit?

[Bentley Bullet]

BST where do you get your figures from?

[wilts rover]

No problem Billy.

Corbyn's current position, as stated in the HoC on Monday, is that any deal the new PM comes up with should be put to a public vote. As I read it from the quotes in the link, if the new PM thinks this should be No Deal then that should be put to a public vote.

Nothing else really matters as he is the leader of the opposition and not in position to do or lead on anything else.

When he does speak on what Labour might do if they were in position to get a deal this has been decided by a small working group lead by Starmer. There is a good interview by Starmer on Brexitcast that I linked to a while back, where he discusses this.

The close to SM was Starmer's idea
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/05/labour-reveals-scheme-to-maintain-access-to-eu-single-market

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

1) Oh but Labour's policy on Brexit DOES matter. It's the reason that Labour has lost 6million supporters in 6 months. I think that matters rather a lot. Don't you?

2) The classic blame-shifting line is neat. It might work on someone who didn't follow politics closely. Unfortunately I do. And I recall very clearly that Statement was pushing very hard for SM membership to be kept as an option in 2017. He was very loudly and publicly slapped down by Corbyn. Starmer is now working within the limits set for him by Corbyn. As for "Close to". Corbyn was pushing something very similar in mid 2017. The problem is, it's never been explained why we shouldn't just stay in, and so this looks like political sleight of hand.

I said "neat" didn't I? It's actually quite dispiriting to see you trying to distance Corbyn from his own lifelong policy position. We KNOW Corbyn's take. You support the man. Embrace it!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, here's Owen Jones catching up with me about...err...24 months late.

I guess he's the next one for the Blairite/Centrist/NeoLib/Coup-Plotter treatment.

[SydneyRover]

Well, here's Owen Jones catching up with me about...err...24 months late.

I guess he's the next one for the Blairite/Centrist/NeoLib/Coup-Plotter treatment.

This: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/soft-brexit-dead-labour-peoples-vote-referendum-remain

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way Wilts. Yer man LeftyStats. Looks like he has got with the project too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1144330523898257408

Another one for the little black book.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, however you dress it up...

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/what-is-your-view-of-jeremy-corbyn-and-his-approach-to-brexit/

...it's just not working, is it?

[selby]

Biily, I find that reply worrying, if you are quite  happy to accept a massive fraud, or conversely people  not doing their jobs correctly, that results in the tax payers of this country, and an institution that begs for more money at every opportunity, and the lefty cause that you and your party hold up as your main cause in parliament, and you are willing to dismiss it as nothing, a blip in the whole spend, just to try and project your constant bulling up of the EU shows your allegiance is not to your country, and the tax payers who fund our lifestyles but to the EU who do not publish accounts at all.
  Are you quite prepared for older people to lie on beds in a corridor, while health tourists get treatment they are not entitled to to further your cause? and if they die hope that they voted to leave? so that's another one gone.
   And this is only part of the problem, people from other parts of the world  come here specifically to take advantage of our systems, but I suppose you would label myself or anyone else as racial for saying we are fools, and we should sack the people in the health service unwilling to rightfully charge for their services, your usual get out of jail card for people well versed in spending other peoples money.
  I make no wonder the latest poll now shows that 57% are now in favour of leaving the EU.

[SydneyRover]

Which poll Selby?

[selby]

   The one that was spoken about by a panel on talk radio this morning.

[SydneyRover]

   The one that was spoken about by a panel on talk radio this morning.

Which talk radio program Selby?

[selby]

  Bloody hell the Spanish inquisition, Mike Graham, yesterday or this mornings programme, Whats up does it frighten you?

[SydneyRover]

  Bloody hell the Spanish inquisition, Mike Graham, yesterday or this mornings programme, Whats up does it frighten you?

Sorry I thought you got our interest and then gone off to the pub, well all this information is important as it's the first poll to show such a result, I'm surprised it hasn't hit the headlines, thanks Selby, today or yesterday? no with second thoughts don't worry.

[selby]

Sydney, I was listening while walking the dog.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

No of course I'm not happy about us not getting our shit together to charge for what we should be charging for. I'm equally unhappy about OUR issues being used to blame the EU.

[SydneyRover]

Sydney, I was listening while walking the dog.

Groovin' along Selby?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6AZNywvF-s

[SydneyRover]

Looking forward to being part of this trade deal, quite big apparently even though it took a while to nail down.

Maybe it means that some of the 4.7 million people now forced to earn a crust in the gig economy may get better jobs?

''EU and Mercosur agree huge trade deal after 20-year talks''

''The EU and South American economic bloc Mercosur have clinched a huge trade deal after 20 years of negotiations.

EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said it was the EU's biggest deal to date and, at a time of trade tensions between the US and China, showed that "we stand for rules-based trade"''

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161

Oh shit I just remembered brexi...................t