Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour has a Brexit policy?  There was me thinking it was the below;

1. Criticise the government policy.
2. Sit on the fence and not commit either way.
END!

There is a conference coming, is it not the case that the members may end up dictating the policy?

Labour's members always 'dictate' the policy - by err voting for it. The Tories always democratically decide theirs by not letting anyone vote for it.

They do Wilts.

Except when they are manoeuvred out of being able to the vote that the membership would have really wanted on Brexit policy, like at Conference last year.

The membership is all powerful in terms of setting policy. Except when it is awkward for Corbyn and the 4Ms.

[BillyStubbsTears]

So its a choice between a 2nd referendum with Labour or revoking article 50 with the Lib Dems at the moment then:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

Yes, but you DO see the problem Labour now has?

A Labour Govt would look to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and put it to a Referendum with Remain as the other option.

But that leaves two massive questions.

1) Will Labour then support Remain in that Referendum? How ridiculous would that look? Having negotiated a deal and then telling the country the deal shouldn't be supported.

2) Will Labour support their renegotiated deal? If Labour is going to do that, how on earth will that pull back any of the 4-6million votes they have lost to the LDs and Greens in the past 8 months?

Mr Rock, meet Mr Hard Place.

So it looks like we're going to get yet more constructive (sic) ambiguity from Corbyn. Refusing to say WHAT he'd do in the event of that Referendum occurring. And hoping that no-one asks too many questions.

I guess it might work. Like 2017, both sides might think he's on their side. But we're in a very different world now, and it seems far more likely to me that both sides will think he's being untrustworthy.

[Pancho Regan]

So its a choice between a 2nd referendum with Labour or revoking article 50 with the Lib Dems at the moment then:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

Yes, but you DO see the problem Labour now has?

A Labour Govt would look to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and put it to a Referendum with Remain as the other option.

But that leaves two massive questions.

1) Will Labour then support Remain in that Referendum? How ridiculous would that look? Having negotiated a deal and then telling the country the deal shouldn't be supported.

2) Will Labour support their renegotiated deal? If Labour is going to do that, how on earth will that pull back any of the 4-6million votes they have lost to the LDs and Greens in the past 8 months?

Mr Rock, meet Mr Hard Place.

Some of Boris's Brigade are making a big deal of this, namely that it would be ridiculous for Labour to renegotiate a deal and then campaign to Remain, thereby campaigning against their own deal.

I'm surprised you seem to have fallen into that trap BST.

I see no problem at all in Labour renegotiating a deal, then putting this to the country in Ref2 with Remain as the other option, their preferred option.
In fact I think that would be the responsible thing to do.

What they would effectively be saying to the country is:

"Right, here you go. Here's the best possible deal with which to leave the EU. There won't be a better one, and it is infinitely better than No Deal. But we happen to believe that the very best deal for the country is what we've already got, so we urge you to vote Remain".

I see nothing remotely ridiculous there.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pancho

In that case, why not come out now and say that explicitly?

Campaign on the clear and unequivocal platform that Labour believes the best we can do is to stay in the EU, but accepts that this is an issue which splits the country. So Labour will do its level best to renegotiate the very best deal it can. And it will not be a catastrophe if the People decide to vote for that, rather than Remain in the Referendum.

Why not just say that? Loud and clear and unambiguous.

It's the constructive (sic) ambiguity that does my head in. It looks like a party and a man wishing this issue didn't exist and wanting to ignore it.

[albie]

BST,

Thornberry said exactly that on "Question Time" the other evening.
It is difficult to know how to weight a prospective deal that has not yet been agreed.

A guide to the next steps are set out in this graphic;
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEGtdu9WkAAn1uO.png

The TUC speech by JC today is here;
https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-speech-tuc-congress/

The mood music is for Cummings to revert to the May deal after pretending to have EU negotiations.
The pitch will be "look we tried, but other parties and the EU have combined to keep us down".

Cummings knows some Tories will go for it rather than "no deal", and some Labour right wingers will join.

This is the real reason the Government "forgot" to nominate tellers when this crept in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST,

Thornberry said exactly that on "Question Time" the other evening.
It is difficult to know how to weight a prospective deal that has not yet been agreed.

A guide to the next steps are set out in this graphic;
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEGtdu9WkAAn1uO.png

The TUC speech by JC today is here;
https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-speech-tuc-congress/

The mood music is for Cummings to revert to the May deal after pretending to have EU negotiations.
The pitch will be "look we tried, but other parties and the EU have combined to keep us down".

Cummings knows some Tories will go for it rather than "no deal", and some Labour right wingers will join.

This is the real reason the Government "forgot" to nominate tellers when this crept in.

I didn't see Thornberry say that. I hope she wasn't slapped down by the 4Ms like the last time she suggested a Brexit policy that hadn't been ok'd by McCluskey.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So its a choice between a 2nd referendum with Labour or revoking article 50 with the Lib Dems at the moment then:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

Yes, but you DO see the problem Labour now has?

A Labour Govt would look to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and put it to a Referendum with Remain as the other option.

But that leaves two massive questions.

1) Will Labour then support Remain in that Referendum? How ridiculous would that look? Having negotiated a deal and then telling the country the deal shouldn't be supported.

2) Will Labour support their renegotiated deal? If Labour is going to do that, how on earth will that pull back any of the 4-6million votes they have lost to the LDs and Greens in the past 8 months?

Mr Rock, meet Mr Hard Place.

So it looks like we're going to get yet more constructive (sic) ambiguity from Corbyn. Refusing to say WHAT he'd do in the event of that Referendum occurring. And hoping that no-one asks too many questions.

I guess it might work. Like 2017, both sides might think he's on their side. But we're in a very different world now, and it seems far more likely to me that both sides will think he's being untrustworthy.

The solution to that would be to make the referendum campaign non-party, as in 1975.

[wilts rover]

So its a choice between a 2nd referendum with Labour or revoking article 50 with the Lib Dems at the moment then:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

Yes, but you DO see the problem Labour now has?

A Labour Govt would look to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and put it to a Referendum with Remain as the other option.

But that leaves two massive questions.

1) Will Labour then support Remain in that Referendum? How ridiculous would that look? Having negotiated a deal and then telling the country the deal shouldn't be supported.

2) Will Labour support their renegotiated deal? If Labour is going to do that, how on earth will that pull back any of the 4-6million votes they have lost to the LDs and Greens in the past 8 months?

Mr Rock, meet Mr Hard Place.

So it looks like we're going to get yet more constructive (sic) ambiguity from Corbyn. Refusing to say WHAT he'd do in the event of that Referendum occurring. And hoping that no-one asks too many questions.

I guess it might work. Like 2017, both sides might think he's on their side. But we're in a very different world now, and it seems far more likely to me that both sides will think he's being untrustworthy.

Voters will be judging all three parties leaders on their trustworthiness. And what it appears they will get are the Lib Dems saying they know best, there will be no referendum and they will revoke Article 50 without a say from the people, and the Tory/Farage alliance saying there will be no referendum, they will leave deal or no deal without a say from the people and Labour offering a democratic choice.

Which one of those will resonate most in a 2 month election campaign?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I dunno.

Here's one back at you. Why do you think Labour has lost 4-6million supporters to the LDs and Greens this year?

[wilts rover]

Labour were still polling at 35-38% until the EU elections - so at a guess I would say that it was people who were Labour supporters then voting for other parties at those elections that was the main cause.

Well done to those people in helping the Tories to victory in the next election - because the LD's & Greens are not going to win it. If they want to reduce the Labour vote - objective achieved.

[wilts rover]

Of course this all surmising there wont be a Brexit deal before the next election. The Guardian seems to think backbenchers may have a cross-party majority for a revised May deal with a referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/10/mps-look-to-bring-back-mays-brexit-deal-with-vote-on-referendum

[BillyStubbsTears]

No they weren't Wilts.

The last time Labour scored 38% in any national poll was 5 April, nearly 2 months before the EU elections.

Last time Labour was AVERAGING 35% was in the last week of February.

Your second paragraph is depressingly familiar to anyone who's had years of dealing with the far Left. Insist that you're right, then blame everyone else for not voting with you when they don't.

I KNOW that people voting LD and Green will put the Tories in power. I've been saying it for 2 years. The point is, what are Labour going to do to bring them back? Because Corbyn's speech today seems designed to drive them further away.

[wilts rover]

That Channel 4 polling analysis.

LD's - 16% of he vote will win them 22 seats.

https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

Its a free country people can vote for who they want. Once again well done to those who voted against Labour in the EU elections. Your work is done - enjoy it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Clearly it's not done. I voted LD, through gritted teeth, to send a message to the Labour party. It still doesn't seem to be listening.

But I won't vote LD in the general election. Because that is when it really matters.

As I've said many times, it's a pity that a few tens of thousands of people on the Left didn't have that sense of perspective when they refused to vote for Brown in 2010. We'd be in a very different place now.

[Pancho Regan]

Pancho

In that case, why not come out now and say that explicitly?

Campaign on the clear and unequivocal platform that Labour believes the best we can do is to stay in the EU, but accepts that this is an issue which splits the country. So Labour will do its level best to renegotiate the very best deal it can. And it will not be a catastrophe if the People decide to vote for that, rather than Remain in the Referendum.

Why not just say that? Loud and clear and unambiguous.

It's the constructive (sic) ambiguity that does my head in. It looks like a party and a man wishing this issue didn't exist and wanting to ignore it.

BST

I agree, what is needed is for Labour to be upfront and positive about their strategy.

I was really taking issue with your assertion that to re-negotiate a deal and then campaign for something else would be "ridiculous".

But yeah, clarity in Corbyn's position is what has been lacking all along, and has done severe damage to Labour's standing.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Pancho

In that case, why not come out now and say that explicitly?

Campaign on the clear and unequivocal platform that Labour believes the best we can do is to stay in the EU, but accepts that this is an issue which splits the country. So Labour will do its level best to renegotiate the very best deal it can. And it will not be a catastrophe if the People decide to vote for that, rather than Remain in the Referendum.

Why not just say that? Loud and clear and unambiguous.

It's the constructive (sic) ambiguity that does my head in. It looks like a party and a man wishing this issue didn't exist and wanting to ignore it.

BST

I agree, what is needed is for Labour to be upfront and positive about their strategy.

I was really taking issue with your assertion that to re-negotiate a deal and then campaign for something else would be "ridiculous".

But yeah, clarity in Corbyn's position is what has been lacking all along, and has done severe damage to Labour's standing.

And yet still this morning Labour representatives on the radio debating their different Brexit options.  At a time where they can be clear and sieze momentum from other parties they are again unclear, it's baffling.

[SydneyRover]

I thought that I had read something positive earlier that an economist had written about brexit but I was wrong.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You might we'll have heard about Patrick Minford being positive about Brexit.

He's about as maverick an economist as you'll find. He ignores gravity effects in trade (the principle that trade is easier with closer neighbours) which is one of THE most established principles of trade economics. And he blithely accepts that the Brexit he assumes in him economic models requires the "managed declined" of Northern, ex-industrial towns.

Oh aye. And he's got previous. Thatcher and Howe implemented his policy of cutting Govt spending at the depths of the 1981 recession. That turn a bad recession into a horrific one, resulting in 25% unemployment in the Dearne Valley. Fortunately, after a year of that idiotic experiment, they shite it and went back to textbook economics. But we've never really recovered from that.

[SydneyRover]

101 basic salescraft, look after the client you already have.

[BillyStubbsTears]

£8bn position in shorts on the Pound taken by hedge funds that funded Vote Leave and/or Johnson's leadership bid.

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

They only make their money if we crash out with No Deal and the Pound collapses.

Still, I'm sure Johnson is standing up for the little man against the Elite, eh?

[GazLaz]

No Deal has never been likely to happen though has it?? Even with the PM I’m my packet I wouldn’t have got involved with that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

Then explain why there was such a spike in short deals when Johnson became PM.

[GazLaz]

Gaz

Then explain why there was such a spike in short deals when Johnson became PM.

I know there was. I suppose the potential drop would be very sharp as opposed to a very slow rally for a gain. Large potential upside with a very limited potential of a loss. Sometimes you have to back value losers I suppose.

[SydneyRover]

We may have lost over 100bn and be the laughing stock of the world but there is always a silver lining. Muppets are Us. Is there no end to this source of ridicule, when will the adults be allowed back in?

''Treasury under fire for pushing no-deal Brexit duty-free shopping, Social media users both ridicule advertising campaign and raise serious issues''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/treasury-under-fire-for-promoting-no-deal-brexit-duty-free-shopping

[SydneyRover]

''Adding up what Brexit could cost the construction industry''

The anticipated decline in construction workers migrating to the UK from Europe and the rapidly increasing imported construction materials could cost the UK’s construction sector millions.

According to built-environment specialist Scape Group, the cost of EU building material imports is at its highest level in seven years – up 15.3% annually. The £5.7 billion worth of materials currently imported from the EU could increase in cost by 10% – which equates to a ‘Brexit cost’ of £570 million to UK construction.

“The construction sector is facing a toxic mix of issues which will inhibit its ability to deliver projects,” said Matt Carrington-Moore, Chief Marketing Officer at Scape Group, said. “The prospect of a fall in the number of construction workers from Europe, combined with the soaring cost of imported materials as well as the magnetic effect that large scale projects such as HS2 will have on the local supply chain, pose a serious risk to the quality and timely delivery of buildings and infrastructure.

“All of the evidence suggests that Brexit could trigger a significant decline in this country’s construction sector, and the impact that this has on UK PLC would be significant.”

Does anyone know anyone in the building industry that could be affected?

https://www.showhouse.co.uk/features/adding-up-what-brexit-could-cost-the-construction-industry/

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's one Leave funder who got his money back in spades through shorting the Pound in June 2016.

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1171902086751166464

[SydneyRover]

''Michel Barnier: no grounds for reopening Brexit talks

EU’s top negotiator tells MEPs Britain has not offered credible proposals for Irish border''

MB has told MEPs there remain insufficient grounds for reopening formal negotiations over the Brexit withdrawal agreement, six months after Theresa May and the European commission closed them.

In a private briefing with the European parliament’s leaders, the EU’s chief negotiator said Boris Johnson’s officials had yet to offer any “legally credible and workable” proposals to replace the Northern Irish backstop on which the two negotiating teams could build.

Gosh all that work boris and his chief negotiator put in for nothing, nought, zip, zero, zilch, diddly-squat eh.

Added: nada

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is a superb way of simply showing the impossible position that May and Johnson have put themselves into.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1172158699521155074

Three mutually incompatible promises.

THIS is why Brexit hasn't happened. Because those f**king idiots painted themselves into a corner from which there is no way out. It is simply impossible to satisfy all three of those red lines.

[bpoolrover]

''Michel Barnier: no grounds for reopening Brexit talks

EU’s top negotiator tells MEPs Britain has not offered credible proposals for Irish border''

MB has told MEPs there remain insufficient grounds for reopening formal negotiations over the Brexit withdrawal agreement, six months after Theresa May and the European commission closed them.

In a private briefing with the European parliament’s leaders, the EU’s chief negotiator said Boris Johnson’s officials had yet to offer any “legally credible and workable” proposals to replace the Northern Irish backstop on which the two negotiating teams could build.

Gosh all that work boris and his chief negotiator put in for nothing, nought, zip, zero, zilch, diddly-squat eh.

Added: nada

there going to say that thou what do you expect them to say? Yes boris has come up with a way out of this? It’s not going to happen, all your doing is taking there word for it, bst said I was being played by boris on another thread could the same be happening to you with the eu?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

Is that it?

You have categorical evidence of lying on one side.

You have no evidence whatsoever of lying on the other side.

So you assume that both sides are lying.

Is that how you live your life? Assuming EVERYONE is lying?