Tory leadership contest

[Glyn_Wigley]

Maybe we should campaign for Boomstick for PM.
He ain't got a clue either.

At least May has balls and stands her ground. BS fecks off the second he paints himself into a corner.

[Boomstick]

Really, if you can't understand my point, then it really is pointless in explaining it.
Kinda like explaining chess to a tardigrade.  (Feel free to Google what one is)

[Glyn_Wigley]

Really, if you can't understand my point, then it really is pointless in explaining it.
Kinda like explaining chess to a tardigrade.

Try us.

[Boomstick]

Really, if you can't understand my point, then it really is pointless in explaining it.
Kinda like explaining chess to a tardigrade.

Try us.

Christ, it's like going round in circles with you lot.
If you can't see my point it's either because you refuse to, or haven't got the knowledge to.
Either way it's pointless engaging in a civil debate with you lot.
Somehow I doubt you would be this hostile if we were to have this conversation in person

[albie]

Winning the vote tonight makes her stronger within the Tory party, as she cannot then be challenged for a year.
It also puts the hard Brexiteers on the backfoot, as they have shot their bolt at replacing her.

Conversely, it weakens the government to the point of impotence. The position appears to be support May as leader, but at the same time reject her Brexit deal.

The DUP will not support the backstop, the EU will not change it.

The government do not have the HoC numbers to govern, and can muddle on only by mutual agreements.
Effectively, the UK is without clear direction until a new GE. But the Tory MP's do not want another election campaign led by the hopeless Maybot.

Another consideration is that if May steps down, the party membership might have the chance to choose the bumwipe BoJo as new leader. The MP's don't want to risk that, a Trumpalike cuckoo coup.

Next step is a vote of no confidence in the government, which Labour will move in the near future. Tories will then be expected to support the paralysed administration, despite not being able to function effectively.

The important issue then will be how the disaffected will vote...not just the DUP, but Tory rebels as well.

[RedJ]

Really, if you can't understand my point, then it really is pointless in explaining it.
Kinda like explaining chess to a tardigrade.

Try us.

Christ, it's like going round in circles with you lot.
If you can't see my point it's either because you refuse to, or haven't got the knowledge to.
Either way it's pointless engaging in a civil debate with you lot.
Somehow I doubt you would be this hostile if we were to have this conversation in person

"I have no actual point so I'm going to talk b*llocks to disguise that fact and hope it washes"

[Glyn_Wigley]

Really, if you can't understand my point, then it really is pointless in explaining it.
Kinda like explaining chess to a tardigrade.

Try us.

Christ, it's like going round in circles with you lot.
If you can't see my point it's either because you refuse to, or haven't got the knowledge to.
Either way it's pointless engaging in a civil debate with you lot.
Somehow I doubt you would be this hostile if we were to have this conversation in person

We can't see your point because you haven't made one. All you've said - twice - is 'Kinda different.' And you expect everyone else to know what you're talking about, and if they can't they haven't got two brain cells?

I'm not hostile, just pissed off with someone like you who spouts b*llocks and then blames everybody else when it doesn't wash with them.

[Filo]

How low can these bas**rds stoop, they have given the whip back to a tory MP that was suspended for sexual harrassment so he can vote for May tonight

Infact they’ve restored the whip to 2 suspended MP’s today!!!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a thought.

5 of the last 7 Tory leaders have faced votes of no confidence or direct challenges from their own MPs.

Heath
Thatcher
Major
Duncan-Smith
May

Two (Hague and Howard) were hammered in General Elections and resigned immediately afterwards and the other one (Cameron) resigned after losing a referendum.

During that time, one Labour leader has faced a challenge from a colleague (Corbyn in 2016), three have resigned after GE defeats that were closer than the two Tory defeats above (Kinnock, Brown and Milliband), three have resigned at times of their own choosing (Wilson, Callaghan, Blair) and one died in office (Smith).

Strong and Stable Tories eh?

[wilts rover]

The DUP might be open to backing Corbyn though.

Highly doubt it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11924431/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-and-John-McDonnells-close-IRA-links.html

Even though less than 2 weeks ago Arlene Foster said that May's Brexit deal was worse than a Corbyn government?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6423527/DUP-leader-Arlene-Foster-blasts-Mays-Brexit-deal-worse-Corbyn-government.html

[Colemans Left Hook]

surely it can't be this one

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/07/boris-johnson-wife-affair-tories-party-cheat-liar

lest we forget David Davis should have become PM in 2005 but Cameroon spouted more $hite in the debates

amazing what you can find

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IalSiKGMCqA

i'm going to watch this now

[RedJ]

surely it can't be this one

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/07/boris-johnson-wife-affair-tories-party-cheat-liar

lest we forget David Davis should have become PM in 2005 but Cameroon spouted more $hite in the debates

amazing what you can find

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IalSiKGMCqA

i'm going to watch this now

He'd have had trouble becoming PM in 2005...

[keith79]

Broomstick whats your point so I don't have to read 3 pages of this.

[tommy toes]

I think it's got summat to do with chess.

[BillyStubbsTears]

200-117. She can't survive that.

[Filo]

200-117. She can't survive that.

We keep saying, but she’s like that stubborn bit of shit on your shoes, it’s still there no matter how many times you wipe it in the grass

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Cant knock her fight and she will keep fighting.  However, it may well be a step towards a no deal.

Arguably the worst result. Won't put the hard liners to bed or kill her off...

They can't now remove her as leader so the focus is on other means. She's stubborn and can't see her giving in.

[Boomstick]

200-117. She can't survive that.

We keep saying, but she’s like that stubborn bit of shit on your shoes, it’s still there no matter how many times you wipe it in the grass

Right, so you want her gone, then what ?

[Filo]

Cant knock her fight and she will keep fighting.  However, it may well be a step towards a no deal.

Arguably the worst result. Won't put the hard liners to bed or kill her off...

They can't now remove her as leader so the focus is on other means. She's stubborn and can't see her giving in.

They have other means, if the ERG really want her out that bad, the can vote out in a opposition no confidence motion, but as someone else has said they won’t do that for fear of losing their own jobs

[albie]

The ERG will not support the May deal, neither will the DUP.

As Mayhem cannot deliver her deal through the HoC, the default becomes no deal.
The HoC will not allow that, and so will amend the May deal once it fails to gain support, via the Grieve amendment.

The only way to give more time is to revoke article 50, and cancel the March deadline to leave.
Back to square one, but with no means to move forward and break the logjam.

The PM is dead in the water, and she seems to be the only person who cannot see it. Continuing to hope for the best will not cut it.

The whole shebang needs a reset from the stalemate.

EDIT;
The power of abstention could come into play.
If Labour moves a vote of no confidence in the government, then ERG/DUP have a decision to make....not voting might get them out of a hole!

[Donnywolf]

She should go just for this ...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0g-46AtwSM

[wilts rover]

So January 21st 2019 it is then.

If May does decide to bring her deal to the HoC then it's now clear it will loose by over 200 votes, she will most likely have to resign, and Albie's scenario will come to pass.

If she doesn't then Corbyn will need to bring the no confidence vote and see if 15 or so of those Tories who dont have confidence in Mrs May as leader of the Tory Party feel the same way about her as PM.

That will gives us something to look forward too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Reminiscent of Thatcher beating Heseltine on a first vote in 1990. Saying  that she intended to go on. Then the Cabinet going in to see her one by one and telling her that the game was up.

Mind, as somone said on the radio this morning, if someone went in to give May a bottle of whisky and a revolver, she'd drink the whisky and shoot the messenger.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Worth noting that, even after she went to the 1922 Committee this afternoon and humiliated herself further by saying "if you vote for me, I promise I'll stand down before the next GE", May still won the votes of less than half of the Tory backbenchers.

And she now has the support of 200 MPs out of 650.

Totally unprecedented that a PM can have so little support and still cling on.

Next opinion poll that asks which main party leader would make the best PM will be interesting. Corbyn has been 10+% behind May on that question for 18 months. If he can't overtake her now, I wonder what the disciples of St Jeremy will make of it.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So January 21st 2019 it is then.

If May does decide to bring her deal to the HoC then it's now clear it will loose by over 200 votes, she will most likely have to resign, and Albie's scenario will come to pass.

If she doesn't then Corbyn will need to bring the no confidence vote and see if 15 or so of those Tories who dont have confidence in Mrs May as leader of the Tory Party feel the same way about her as PM.

That will gives us something to look forward too.

Ah, but a No Confidence vote in the HOC would be of No Confidence in the government, not the PM.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour won't win a No Conf vote against the Govt. The DUP have said they'll vote with the Govt.

[Filo]

Labour won't win a No Conf vote against the Govt. The DUP have said they'll vote with the Govt.

For now

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep

We're still in a maelstrom. 

The ERG has said tonight that it won't back May's deal, and said so in bellicose language.

So, realistically, she's not going to be able to get any warm words from the EU that can get Parliament to vote for her deal.

So, come 21 Jan, we're 9 weeks away from Brexit Day, with no deal, but also a Parliament determined to make sure there is no No Deal. And a PM supported by only a slack handful of MPs who aren't paid Govt ministers or underlings.

If that's not a great big screaming f**king crisis, I don't know what is.

[IDM]

The clusterf**k remains..  the brexit deal won’t get passed, so I can imagine May will ask for a delay to article 50..

Despite the numbers of MPs voting against May, that vote gave her a far bigger majority percentage wise than the last GE and the brexit referendum.!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The clusterf**k remains..  the brexit deal won’t get passed, so I can imagine May will ask for a delay to article 50..

Despite the numbers of MPs voting against May, that vote gave her a far bigger majority percentage wise than the last GE and the brexit referendum.!

Indeed - the shadow chancellor's tweet last night about it was laughable given his own party's recent history aswell.  But that is politics.

BST is right a crisis is in play and no deal looms bigger every day.  An extension is likely unless the EU budges, which is likely but how big.