European election

[DonnyOsmond]

OK guys, once again it's down to me to bring some common sense and perspective to this debate. All the pundits and experts of all political persuasions have said that last night's results have only shown what people already knew, that the country is completely split down the middle on Brexit, and there are no numbers in Parliament for any way out of this.

I said the day after the 2016 Referendum that the Liberalist Establishment of Britain would never let us leave the EU, and that's exactly what's happening. Come October 31st, we'll ask for another extension, and it will be granted, and the sh*tshow will just go on and on.

All this means is that the country is bitterly divided, and that bitterness will never ever go away. I saw it after the miners' strike; brother against brother, father against son, friends against friends.

That's what we've got coming. Thanks a lot David Cameron.

Not wrong at all. Wonder what the outcome will be? Whatever it is will leave a very bitter half the population and nothing will "bring the country back together".

[Padge_DRFC]

I actually think if there was a general election now, labour would be gone in Donny now. Additionally across the country it would be so split into 5 parties more than ever. At least it might break the 2 party trend

[Padge_DRFC]

Lastly the Doncaster result also shows this forum doesn't reflect the Doncaster public's thoughts

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

Look at the numbers. Tell me what you see.

If you see a clear triumph for Hard Brexit, point it out.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Lastly the Doncaster result also shows this forum doesn't reflect the Doncaster public's thoughts

Course it doesn't. You're absolutely right. Everyone knows Donny fans are far smarter than normal people.

[wilts rover]

Wilts

Yeah. I get it.

Polls can't be trusted to give you a picture of what the country thinks (unless they support Corbyn, in which case they can).

You also can't draw any conclusions from actual elections either.

I see the theme.

My conclusion from this election is that only 36.7% of the electorate took part in it. So at least 33% of people who voted in the last GE did vote last week.

If you want to draw conclusions by ignoring a third of the voting public that's fine. But just like your ignoring of any poll that is positive towards Corbyn it's not statistics - its propoganda.

[selby]

  Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour  14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
 Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out  has extended it's lead.
  Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?

[selby]

 If Thorneberry looks at a map of the English constituencies where they returned the Brexit party, and pushes the Labour Party into campaigning to stay in the EU, there is a good chance she will finish the Labour Party in their northern and midlands heartlands for ever.

[DonnyOsmond]

  Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour  14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
 Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out  has extended it's lead.
  Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?

If the Tories and Labour wanted the same thing we wouldn't have had 5 extensions. The fact also is that Labour members nearly 90% want a 2nd referendum, so they're more likely remainers x

[Padge_DRFC]

  Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour  14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
 Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out  has extended it's lead.
  Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?

He thinks because some of the remainers are telling the party to change their stance 2 a second referendum that equals labour being remain.

[wilts rover]

Labour lost votes in both remain and leave areas. There is no easy answer or quick fix for them.

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1132847063564259328

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

We've just had a national election. Where getting on for 40% of the electorate voted. And Labour got what I think is its lowest vote share in a national election since 1918. And you say that suggesting there might be  hard lessons for Labour to take from that is propaganda. I'll give the Far Left their due. They always did stick to their guns despite the evidence of the real world.

But, tell you what. I'll bite.

My take is that Labour is haemorrhaging votes to other centre-Left parties because of its refusal to take a Remain stand. Your take, I'm guessing, is that you can't draw any such conclusions. I assume what you mean is that you can't be sure that the people who voted last week are representative of the people who would vote in a General Election. That argument has some merit, as smaller turnout elections do tend to be more skewed towards people with passionate views but the question is, by how much.

Let's have a look at the numbers.

The 2017 GE turnout was 68.8% and Labour got 40.0% of the vote.

Last week's turnout was 36.7% and 14.1% of those voted Labour.

Let's assume Labour HASN'T lost support since 2017. For that to be the case, Labour's support among the 32.1% of folk who didn't vote last week would have to be 70%. That stretches credulity way beyond breaking point. So I think it's safe to assume that last week's election shows that Labour has lost a lot of support since 2017.

And where has it gone?

Well the LDs, Greens and ChUK combined last week polled about 6million on a 36.7% turnout, compared with 2.9million in 2017 on a 68.8% turnout.

Draw you own conclusions. I can see a great big bleeding obvious one with flashing lights on it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

You're telling me you think every single person who voted Labour last week is in favour of Brexit? The 2017 manifesto is utterly irrelevant. Labour party policy on that subject was changed at the 2018 Conference. Although, admittedly, you wouldn't necessarily know that if you listen to Corbyn's inner circle.

But even if you DO choose that bizarre interpretation of the numbers, equating the sort of Brexit that Labour would accept to the sort that Farage wants makes me think you've been asleep these past three months.

You're making the daft mistake that I keep hammering on about. Assuming that all types of Brexit are one and the same thing, and that anyone who supports, say a Norway deal would choose No Deal over Remain if the Norway deal wasn't available.

It's nonsense from a simple logic point of view. And it flies in the face of literally dozens of polls from the past 3 years.

But here we are, three years on, making the same fundamental error that we had in the 2016 vote. Assuming that "Brexit" is a well-defined concept that everyone agrees on. If you would spend a moment to consider how ridiculous that is, I think the whole reason why we're in this shit tip would be a lot clearer for you.

[albie]

BST,

Just to be clear....what are you saying about the intentions of the 32.1% who voted Labour in a GE, but chose not vote in the EU election?

The EU elections lend themselves to proxy voting. It is seen by some as an opportunity to fire a shot over the bows, but they then revert back in a GE.

I would be very hesitant to draw a conclusion about a future GE on the basis of a frustration vote for the EU ticket!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I fully agree that it's not black and white. But to respond by simply ignoring the self-evident fact that Labour has a massive problem on its hands with lost Remain support is simply perverse.

[DonnyOsmond]

#Kier4PM

[albie]

BST,

The data does not support the claim that Labour has a "massive problem" with the Remain vote.
This is a narrative running in some circles, but it is not backed up with empirical evidence, or none that you have shown.

I will ask again........what assumption are you making about Labour supporters who did not vote in the EU election?

The thing that seems perverse to me is to assume Remainers will not vote Labour in a GE, even if they support the party on other issues.

It seems to me that when voters are faced with a manifesto for a GE, they will choose on a range of policy offers, and will likely hold a "Brexit" position in that context.

It is surely obvious that an early GE is needed to change the HoC numbers.
The public vote needs to be on a full policy offer, not a narrow Brexit position.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BS

I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.

How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?

BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.

On an assumption which is what it is that they would prefer a deal over the other option. But yes I take your point the numbers dont lie.

If this was a gen election though (and they are totally different), we'd have a Brexit party government.  Now that wont happen but if they aren't careful he Tories and labour could be finished.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

That post depressingly sums up the conviction on the Left.

The Left doesn't WANT Brexit to dominate therefore they assume that it DOESN'T dominate.

Thing is, out there in the real world, it DOES dominate. And you can have the best other policies in the world, but they won't win an election if you are driving away millions of potential supporters to the LDs and Greens and even the no-hopers like ChUK.

I appreciate your conviction that voters will be savvy enough to vote Labour even if they think Labour will not back them on the central political issue of our lifetimes. I had similar thoughts in 2010, when it seemed a no-brainer to me that folk on the Left should vote Labour because the alternative was Austerity. Imagine my naive shock at the number of folk on the Left who didn't vote Labour as a matter of principle over the fact that Blair and Brown were Red Tories.

[selby]

  Billy, when it comes to politics compared to you I am a thicko. Brexit to me has meant going short or long ( mainly short) on some investment opportunities thrown up by the political situation.
  Personally it has been that good, let it roll on.
 Albie I think the days of believing any parties manifesto's are now long gone, Farage will be able to rubbish and call lies to anything the tories or labour put in them.
 If the Labour party make remaining part of those promises, the chances of their MP's in this area and other heartlands will be reduced considerably, and if the Brexit party stands in those constituencies they will have a good chance of taking their place, and could have the ballance of power with the tories in a brexit alliance.
   That is the risk the Labour party would take.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby. I don't like the thought of anyone being called thick.  There are different takes.

I do agree that Labour is in a nightmarish situation and I've been saying this has been coming for two years. You're right that supporting Ref2 will alienate Lab Brexit supporters. Trouble is NOT supporting Ref2 will alienate Lab Remain supporters and according to the latest polling figures, they make up 75% of current Labour support.

Albie says it doesn't matter. Labour's leadership can go against party policy and the Members' overwhelming wishes and not vigorously pursue Ref2. That will piss off Lab Remainers but they'll still vote Labour anyway because...well because. Fascinatingly, I never hear that argument used the other way. If that was a valid argument, then presumably Lab Brexit supporters would still vote Lab if Labour came out for Ref2.

[albie]

Billy, Billy, Billy,

You are a fantasist of the first order. Not sure Politics is your first game!

Labour has been following party policy set out at Conference.
You have been arguing for a departure from policy because of your misunderstanding of how the party works.

I did not say it didn't matter what Labour did, I said the extent to which it mattered is open to question, because voting in an EU election is not the same as voting in a GE.

The reason Ref2 is less viable than earlier is precisely illustrated by the EU result.
Ref2 would deliver a split outcome on tribal lines. It would do nothing to change the numbers game in the HoC.

The most likely scenario is a no confidence vote forcing the new Tory leader to call a GE.
If a Boris or Raab wins the leadership, then remain Tories must consider the options to prevent a disastrous no deal.
Supporting a no confidence motion might be the only way that they can intervene.

All speculation, I know.

Still no answer to my question about the Labour voters absent from the EU vote would fall in a GE?
It seems an important question to me.

Evidential difficulty there, me old fruit?

[wilts rover]

Again on Labour policy the assumption Billy is making is that the Lib Dems took Labour votes across the country. They didn't. Labour did badly in both remain and leave areas, the Lib Dems didn't do that well in leave areas.

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1132989546386403328

In fact the Lib Dem votes was heavily concentrated in metropolitan areas/university towns and the Home Counties. They hardly registered in the Midlands, Yorkshire, Lancashire or the North East.

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1132994679602143242

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

1) Right. So now we ARE drawing conclusions from this vote are we? Page one of the playbook - deny. Page two - if denial doesn't work, dissemble. Trust me. I used to know the playbook word for word.

2) On which theme, anyone relying of SkwakBox for a balanced take is well off down the dissembling road. Me, I prefer to look at the numbers myself rather than being told what to think by a neo-Stalinist Twitter feed run by someone in Len McCluskey's top pocket.

And here are the vote shares.

First one, Lab vote share. Second one, combined vote share if the avowedly pro-Remain parties (LD, Green, ChUK).

Yorks
16
31

North West
22
33

North East
19
29


That doesn't look like Remain parties struggling to make an impression in the Northern Heartlands.

If you want, we can drill down further into these post-industrial towns where Remain is apparently Blasphemy.

Just take the NE region. There, the combined vote of LD, Green and ChUK comfortably beat the Lab vote in Gateshead, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar, South Tyneside and Sunderland.

I have this nagging feeling that Skwawkbox won't be pushing those numbers.

3) The Dr Jennings data are interesting although I'd make three points i) There's a clear slope to the Lab data best fit line. Looks like about -12.5 at the left hand side and -7.5 at the right. ii) But I'd say to him as one data analyst to another, that fitting a linear least-squares fit to data with outliers as wild as the ones at 40 and 62 on the x-axis, and a very big cluster of results that sit above the line is...debate able. iii) Far bigger than those nerdy points though is the implicit assumption you make that in Leave supporting areas, the supporters Labour lost last week were Leave supporters. I'm a traditional Labour supporter in a Leave area. I voted Remain in 2016 and I didn't vote for Labour last week. I could feel off a dozen friends and family who fit into the same category. 

[Boomstick]

BS

I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.

How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?

BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.

A majority in South yorkshire, and vast swathes of the country, yes.

Keep living in denial and blatantly ignore yet another democratic vote, if you want.
Me? I'll live in the real world.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS.

Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?

[Axholme Lion]

BS

I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.

How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?

BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.

A majority in South yorkshire, and vast swathes of the country, yes.

Keep living in denial and blatantly ignore yet another democratic vote, if you want.
Me? I'll live in the real world.

This remainiac mob are in denial. They will tell you black is white to suit their own agenda. It's a shame they are in the minority again. 

[foxbat]

Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids

remain won

1.    Isolated Brit‏ @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room. 

Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
   

   
   People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
 Will Hutton‏ @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.

[Axholme Lion]

Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids

remain won

1.    Isolated Brit‏ @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room. 

Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
   

   
   People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
 Will Hutton‏ @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.

Do you mean the Brexit Bashing Corporation the home of anti British, anti Christian, pro muslim, pro gay, pro EU thought?

[Boomstick]

BS.

Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?

Don't agree, I dare say there are huge numbers who want no deal over a bad deal, or a deal they don't like.

So I still say there's a majority who would prefer a no deal, countrywide.