This looks like fun

[Herbert Anchovy]

HA

I do appreciate that there's s reluctance on the Leave side to face up to the negatives of their decision, and a determination to overplay perceived positives.

But on the fact that stockpiling added to "growth" in Q1, you don't have to look very far to find the info. You don't have to rely on your own guesses.

https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/brexit-stockpiling-drives-improvement-in-uk-gdp-growth/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1SR0Y6

https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/brexit-uncertainty-sees-stockpiling-race-to-post-financial-crisis-peak-cbi/

Billy,

And I never cease to be amazed at how remainers are quite willing to dismiss any positive news to support their narrative.

So, let's look at this another way.

The primary component of GDP in the UK is services (approx 80% I believe). Services cannot be stockpiled!! So, how on earth can stockpiling be the main reason for our growth? For those organisations in the manufacturing sector (which I believe makes up around (15% of GDP) stockpiling is of course more likely. However, considering the size of its contribution to GDP this is much smaller than your suggesting. So, while stockpiling is probably contributing to growth it's impossible that it can be the dominant factor!

12 month year in year growth in UK GDP was the second highest in the G7. UK growth was 1.8%, France 1.2%, Japan 0.8%, Germany 0.7%, Italy 0.1%.

So, whatever you try to claim, stockpiling (though undoubtedly taking place) can only have a comparatively negligible affect on GDP.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA
So you ignore the OBR and that string of business commentators (none of which have a record of partiality on this)?

You ignore the fact that our economy actually had NEGATIVE growth in March? You ignore the fact that our growth dropped precipitately in 2016-18 while every one of those countries you cite had a sustained surge in growth?

And you accuse ME of being selective!

[Herbert Anchovy]

HA
So you ignore the OBR and that string of business commentators (none of which have a record of partiality on this)?

You ignore the fact that our economy actually had NEGATIVE growth in March? You ignore the fact that our growth dropped precipitately in 2016-18 while every one of those countries you cite had a sustained surge in growth?

And you accuse ME of being selective!

Billy,

I don't ignore those points. How can I argue with the fact our growth dropped in 16-18 when it's a fact? So, for the record I agree with you on that point ok? Although, it's also worth pointing out that other G7 countries saw serious economic down turns during this period too, Germany and Italy are examples, so it wasn't exclusively the UK.

However, I'm pointing out to you (and others) that make the claim that our recent economic growth is down to stockpiling are plain wrong.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No HA!

Those other countries all saw GDP growth surge in from mid-2016 to mid-2018, while our growth dropped badly.

That's precisely the point I've been making for a year now.

The rest of the world saw a boom for those two years whilst UK, alone among leading countries, saw its growth slow.

Missing out on that boom has already cost us £100bn of economic activity (or, if you want to look at it another way, fi e and a half years worth of the £350m/week that we don't pay to the EU).

Yes, those countries have seen a downturn over the past few months, but in overall terms since 2016, they have all outperformed us.

What you've done is to take a snapshot of one quarter and implied that we're doing better than anywhere in Europe. Possibly correct for a brief period. Categorically incorrect over the entire period since the Brexit vote.

[Bentley Bullet]

how have we missed out when we haven't even left yet?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Big deep breath Billy. Big deep breath.

Because, BB, as has been discussed half a dozen times in this very thread, business investment has dried up because we are seen as having a less successful future, and inflation spiked after the pound tumbled after the vote. The pound tumbled because we are seen as having a less successful future ahead of us.

[Bentley Bullet]

And here's me thinking it was because of the uncertainty of whether we're actually gonna leave or not. Ah well! We live and learn.

Well, some of us do.

[Herbert Anchovy]

No HA!

Those other countries all saw GDP growth surge in from mid-2016 to mid-2018, while our growth dropped badly.

That's precisely the point I've been making for a year now.

The rest of the world saw a boom for those two years whilst UK, alone among leading countries, saw its growth slow.

Missing out on that boom has already cost us £100bn of economic activity (or, if you want to look at it another way, fi e and a half years worth of the £350m/week that we don't pay to the EU).

Yes, those countries have seen a downturn over the past few months, but in overall terms since 2016, they have all outperformed us.

What you've done is to take a snapshot of one quarter and implied that we're doing better than anywhere in Europe. Possibly correct for a brief period. Categorically incorrect over the entire period since the Brexit vote.

Billy

Ok, let's look at a longer term picture then. Since July 2016 German GDP has seen average quarterly increases of 0.4%. UK GDP has seen average increases of 0.38%. In fact, UK GDP has outperformed Germany over the past 3 quarters. So, when you say other countries saw a surge in GDP compared to the UK I take it you don't include Germany in that...or maybe our understanding of a surge is quite different.

So, we've debunked the theory that stockpiling is the primary mover behind any growth so what is it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

Fair points, but with respect, you are greatly over-simplifying things on two points. That's not me dissembling. Bear with me and I'll explain.


1) To identify the Brexit effect, you must also take into account what the conditions were like BEFORE
the vote and see how the trajectories changed.

Here are the figures (approximate because I'm reading them by eye from a graph, but not too far out).

UK annual GDP growth rate in the 12 months before the vote: 2.3%

For the 12 months after the vote: 1.7%
For the 24 months after the vote: 1.6%
For the 33 months after the vote: 1.6%
(NB: Worth noting that our long term average post-War growth rate is 2.3%, so we've had three years of significantly below par growth since the vote.)

Comparative figures for Germany
For the 12 months before the vote: 1.7%
For the 12 months after the vote: 2.3%
For the 24 months after the vote: 2.4%
For the 33 months after the vote: 1.9%

You see?

We were growing much more strongly than Germany. They had a boom. We dipped.

The same think applies to the whole G7 and the whole EU27.

2) Yes Germany has dipped recently so that their CURRENT growth rate is lower than ours and their average growth over the past 3 years is only slightly greater than ours.

That categorically doesn't mean that we've performed similarly.

You need to think about what GDP is.

GDP is the amount of economic production  in a year.

GDP growth is that rate at which that changes.

Cumulative output is the sum of GDP figures over a given time.

There's a direct analogy with the speed of a car.

GDP is speed
GDP growth is acceleration.
Cumulative GDP is distance travelled.

Look at it like that and it's clear that WHEN growth happens matters.

Consider two cars, both doing 50mph. They are both going to drive for an hour.
One accelerates immediately to 60. Drives for 45 mins then decelerates to 40 for the last 15 mins. They drive 55 miles in the hour.

The other one decelerated to 40 and held that speed for 45 mins, then accelerated to 60 for the last 15. They cover 45 miles in the hour.

Both have accelerated and decelerated the same amount, but when it happens matters.

So, even though our average growth RATE has been similar to Germany over the past 3 years, our cumulative increase in wealth is much slower.

[wilts rover]

  What I will say is that the battle bus shown on the BBC news channel when the story broke had the word could as part of the inscription on the side of the bus, as I pointed out to the wife at the time.
  On the still photographs I have subsequently seen on this thread no such word is in the lettering.
  It leads me to two theories, either someone has purposely doctored the still photographs, or the word was added as the campaign progressed if the same bus.
  just as an aside, what do you think could possibly be the truth? 

Sorry Selby, I missed this at the time.

Vote Leave used the 'We send the EU £350 million' slogan quite a lot, with slightly different wording each time. I don't remember the 'could' on the bus (and I cant find a photograph of it either) but if you say you saw it, well you must have. Did they have more than one bus maybe?

Anyway on the bus it is:
We send the EU £350 million a week let's fund our NHS instead

A billboard of the first time it was used, later on a panel whilst Johnson & fox are speaking and on the Marr show:
Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week
https://jonworth.eu/the-two-versions-of-the-350-million-for-the-nhs-slogan/

The official Vote Leave leaflet:
The EU costs us £350 million a week. That’s enough to build a new NHS hospital every week of the year
https://fullfact.org/europe/vote-leave-facts-leaflet-membership-fee/

There might be more example but I think these are the main ones.

As for the truth, I am afraid I am with Farage on this one, it's not true and they shouldn't have used it. What do you think the truth is?