Tory Leader - Who's your preference?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sweet Jesus. The "never, ever seen shit like this in politics" ante just got raised again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1153306900638916609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1153311082691407873&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-49073992

[SydneyRover]

The tories, well some of them do have principles after all.

''Philip Hammond to quit government if Boris Johnson becomes PM

Chancellor joins David Gauke in saying he could not work for leader seeking a no-deal Brexit''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/21/david-gauke-to-quit-government-if-boris-johnson-becomes-pm
[/quo

Principles? Ok, so why haven't all the shadow cabinet resigned over anti-semitism in the Labour Party?

Quick, look over there.

[SydneyRover]

''I have no idea who sleuthfortruth is, but someone should find them and hire them as a speechwriter. “Voting for a populist party is like diving headfirst into an empty swimming pool, because you’re angry that there’s no water in it.” Brilliant. Trump and Brexit to a tee''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/15/populism-boris-johnson-brexit-trump

Skid-lids anyone?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Worth a read. If only to see what a Kitson we're about to entrust with the keys to No. 10.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1139069538832703488

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well bugger me! Who could POSSIBLY have predicted this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1153254516147609600

[SydneyRover]

Well bugger me! Who could POSSIBLY have predicted this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1153254516147609600

This comment is significant, but it's all starting to sound a bit Tommy Cooper, glass bottle, bottle glass, Boris glass, Nigel bottle, boris nigel trump.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Looks like Dominic Cummings is going to be Johnson's special adviser at No10.

For those of you who don't follow these things too closely, that's the man who paid Cambridge Analytica £3m to figure out which Facebook users were more susceptible to having lies pumped remorselessly into their feeds, during the 2016 referendum.

He was found in contempt of Parliament earlier this year, when he refused to attend a Select Committee meeting where MPs were going to do their job and question him on these issues. And of course, the Vote Leave operation that he was key to has admitted breaking electoral law and paid a large fine as a result.

Good stuff, eh?

[SydneyRover]

What I can't find is what the consequences are if any for the contempt of parliament for Cummings.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's still going through the system Sydney. If I recall correctly, Cummings refused to attend because he said there were still criminal actions being taken against him and he had the right not to incriminate himself.

[BillyStubbsTears]

KFC, this is terrifying.

Cummings is a man who believes himself to be the most intelligent person in politics. He's an obsessive who sees politicians as intellectual pygmies to be despised. He sees himself as a crusader, bringing in ideas from the forefront of scientific advancement into political decision making. He doesn't seem to realise that sometimes things go seriously tits up when you shake the world like that. Brilliant ideas on paper can lead to catastrophically bad practical outcomes because...well because not everyone is as geniusly bright as our Dom. So, a great idea like winning the Brexit vote can result in a reight f**king mess when you try to implement it.

So here's the terrifying bit.

https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/

He's musing on what decision making strategy you should employ in a nuclear confrontation.

And from today, he's the senior adviser to the man with his finger on the button - a man not known for his carefully considered responses.

Where's that Protect and Survive leaflet?

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49146480

What a Kitson. What a first-class, "Can't even stop myself from grinning cos I know exactly what I am doing" Kitson.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49146480

He KNOWS that screaming out "the deal that the EU spent two years negotiating with us is dead" means there's zero chance of there being any deal in place in October. And he's saying with that devious f**king grin " But WE are happy to negotiate so if everything fails it's the EU's fault".

Then he says how we'll be fine with No Deal, knowing full f**king well how catastrophic No Deal will be, and how the grown ups in Parliament will prevent that. 

Which is exactly what he wants.

Because d**kheads in this country will lap it up and vote for him when he calls a General Election.

This is dragging our country's reputation through the shite to bolster that Kitson's career. Those who go along with this and still call themselves patriots are either thick as a piece of 4x2 or equally devious.

[SydneyRover]

There must be millions of people especially Gove kicking themselves because boris didn't get in at the last leadership change as he's making it look easy, a new railway here, 300 mill for Scotland, regional funding, 20 billion extra police, "Prosperity not Austerity" is the new slogo' get em while they're hot! everyone's a winner, welcome to the new imaginary world of boris where no one has to pay for anything.

A cynical person could think that Austerity was ideology rather than good government, nah that couldn't be true especially as the tories are renowned for their business acumen and in business if you clung to a methodology that didn't work for that long you wouldn't be in business would you?

[Glyn_Wigley]

There must be millions of people especially Gove kicking themselves because boris didn't get in at the last leadership change as he's making it look easy, a new railway here, 300 mill for Scotland, regional funding, 20 billion extra police, "Prosperity not Austerity" is the new slogo' get em while they're hot! everyone's a winner, welcome to the new imaginary world of boris where no one has to pay for anything.

A cynical person could think that Austerity was ideology rather than good government, nah that couldn't be true especially as the tories are renowned for their business acumen and in business if you clung to a methodology that didn't work for that long you wouldn't be in business would you?

It's easy to promise loads of stuff when you know damn well the economy won't be able to fund them after No Deal happens.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

There must be millions of people especially Gove kicking themselves because boris didn't get in at the last leadership change as he's making it look easy, a new railway here, 300 mill for Scotland, regional funding, 20 billion extra police, "Prosperity not Austerity" is the new slogo' get em while they're hot! everyone's a winner, welcome to the new imaginary world of boris where no one has to pay for anything.

A cynical person could think that Austerity was ideology rather than good government, nah that couldn't be true especially as the tories are renowned for their business acumen and in business if you clung to a methodology that didn't work for that long you wouldn't be in business would you?

It's easy to promise loads of stuff when you know damn well the economy won't be able to fund them after No Deal happens.

Disagree.

It's easy to promise things when you know that no deal won't happen and that you have an election to win!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

Precisely!

If you're going to understand Johnson's sudden conversion to spaffing out promises of Govt money, you can only do it by understanding that we are in an election campaign. Here. Now.

He's already taken the Tories into a clear lead over the past week. If that solidifies, there WILL be an Election is Sept or Oct.

The b*llocks being spouted by Momentum about how Labour were further behind May when she took over, and still nearly matched her in 2017 is utterly missing the point. There were two arguments as to why Corbyn caught up ground on May. Firstly that Labour offered an alternative to Austerity. Secondly, that May turned out to be an utter social inadequate in the campaign.

The second one ain't going to happen under Johnson. And his pouring out of spending promises is going to make it harder for Labour to play the Austerity card.

Labour has one chance to defeat Johnson. It has to pull the centre-Left vote to Labour and away from the LDs and Greens. The polls aren't showing much sign of that happening at the moment.

Still. Wait till Conference, eh comrades?

[idler]

Bojo is doing exactly what the Tories accused Jeremy Corbyn of in the previous election. Making promises that can't be kept.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't agree Idler. They CAN be kept. We've just all been programmed by Austerity to think that Govt can't have ambitious spending plans.

Problem for Labour is that, if the Tories now ditch Austerity and go balls out for major Govt spending, allied with a clear Brexit message, what is Labour's USP?

[SydneyRover]

Austerity is an ideological crock.

[idler]

I don't agree Idler. They CAN be kept. We've just all been programmed by Austerity to think that Govt can't have ambitious spending plans.

Problem for Labour is that, if the Tories now ditch Austerity and go balls out for major Govt spending, allied with a clear Brexit message, what is Labour's USP?

Borrowing the money to pay for this would explode the austerity myth created by Cameron and Osborne and totally alien to a lot of Tory voters.
Can you honestly see him pumping a lot of money into northern Labour heartlands once he won a decent majority in parliament?
Trump will also screw him to the floor in any trade deal.
It’s ok to criticise the EU for being intransigent and then rolling over for Uncle Sam in his book.
Worrying times ahead.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I don't agree Idler. They CAN be kept. We've just all been programmed by Austerity to think that Govt can't have ambitious spending plans.

Problem for Labour is that, if the Tories now ditch Austerity and go balls out for major Govt spending, allied with a clear Brexit message, what is Labour's USP?

Try to call it irresponsible and poorly placed?  Try to create a class war scenario that politically plays well for them?  IE Boris cares for the rich but not you...

Investing in the north and Scotland is exactly what the Tories should do and get rid of that only caring for the south narrative.

Examples of things they could do;

Improve the poor road situations (A1, M60, cross pennine roads to name just a few).  Sort out the cross pennine train situation and lack of capacity.
Offer tax breaks for business to invest and relocate to the north in places like Doncaster, Scunthorpe , Rochdale etc.
Increase educational spending in the north to enable the investment stated above and get more quality jobs.
Increase cultural subsidies to allow more arts festivals and increase the community feel in northern towns particularly.  I feel Doncaster is doing ok with this but it could be so much better.

There's going to be a huge push to environmental and technological improvements - Yorkshire for example could really power that.

I would think that smaller scale schemes to improve many areas are better options than the crazy amount proposed for HS2...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Idler.

Doesn't matter. You have to see it not as ideology, but as political tactics.

Austerity did its job in the 2010s. Not its economic job of course, that was a f**king disaster and we've had the slowest decade of economic growth for well over a century. It did its POLITICAL job, which was to undermine Labour's credibility among floating voters who thought they took these things seriously (but actually didn't know how economics works, and hence were ripe for being played).

The world's moved on now. It's not about convincing serious people. It's about convincing floating voters who have traditionally voted Labour but who are now  Brexit zealots and are also Big State/High Govt Spending people. Tories will vote for Johnson anyway. It's about picking up enough outside the heartlands to secure a majority.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Tories will vote for Johnson anyway. It's about picking up enough outside the heartlands to secure a majority.

If only the labour activists could click that!

[SydneyRover]

Idler.

Doesn't matter. You have to see it not as ideology, but as political tactics.

Austerity did its job in the 2010s. Not its economic job of course, that was a f**king disaster and we've had the slowest decade of economic growth for well over a century. It did its POLITICAL job, which was to undermine Labour's credibility among floating voters who thought they took these things seriously (but actually didn't know how economics works, and hence were ripe for being played).

The world's moved on now. It's not about convincing serious people. It's about convincing floating voters who have traditionally voted Labour but who are now  Brexit zealots and are also Big State/High Govt Spending people. Tories will vote for Johnson anyway. It's about picking up enough outside the heartlands to secure a majority.

It's always about attracting enough fringe dwellers, whatever has happened up and until boris got his feet under the desk can be put to one side as the election campaign is up and running and the scare campaign will be the accompanying drum beat. if labour wants to pull this out of the fire they need to get united behind a no brexit banner surely, what else have they got? I can't see the EU changing anything for boris, but would they change for labor? if they would they can't flag it up. Boris will continue to promise the earth cos he doesn't give a rats about delivery, he's seen big society and the northern powerhouse ideas fall away it's now the big Con.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tories will vote for Johnson anyway. It's about picking up enough outside the heartlands to secure a majority.

If only the labour activists could click that!

Agreed BFYP. Labour's current approach seems to be to call everyone outside the Church of the Latter Day Jeremy a Red Tory, then expect them to vote Labour.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And here he goes again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49151870

I'll paraphrase. "I want a deal which the EU have made clear since before the 2016 referendum is not acceptable to them. So it's their fault if we leave with No Deal."

I'll repeat. HE DOESN'T BELIEVE THIS.

He just thinks YOU are stupid enough to believe it and vote for him. Ask yourself if you're really that stupid.

[albie]

A summary of the reasons why an election is unlikely before the October 31 deadline;
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-snap-corbyn-brexit-vote-no-confidence-a9022336.html

Cummings (and BoJo) need to secure their Brexit before a GE, in order to prevent Farrago running candidates to pinch their vote.The "dead cat bounce" of a new leader has a very short shelf life where key promises fall at the first hurdle.

Labour is unlikely to form a majority under FPTP, more so because Johnson boosts SNP support in Scotland.
Without regaining Scottish seats, this is beyond expectation.

The issue is to form the largest single party, and so with partners form the next government.
The strategy is therefore to secure the best return in the top 100 target seats.

The demographics of voter intentions in these locations is much more important than generalised distribution of voting intention across the whole UK.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Top 100 target seats?

Labour is polling 15-20% below what it achieved in 2015. Without an astonishing turnround, you're looking at limiting losses, not securing targets.

If Labour doesn't pull back a large fraction of the 4-5 million voters it has currently lost to the LDs and Greens, it is going to lose a shed load of seats. Maybe not all directly to them, but also in Lab-Con marginals.

Now. I wonder how Labour could pull those votes back?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well it's not taken Sajid Javid long to drink the KoolAid has it?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49183324

He voted three times for May's deal, including the backstop.

As recently as three months ago, he was saying MPs had to vote for May's deal.

Now he's saying "We want to get a good deal that abolishes the anti-democratic backstop. But if we can't get a good deal, we'll have to leave without one."

Not a f**king principle between the lot of them. Government by spivs and chancers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You remember during the Tory leadership campaign when Johnson said he wanted to raise the salary at which people pay higher rate tax to £80k per year?

Every stop and think how than might be paid for?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-raise-state-pension-age-18953679.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

[SydneyRover]

Yep the tories from the UK and Australia copy the worst of each country.

The pension age Australia.

''65 years To be eligible for the age pension you must be 65 years or older. The qualifying age will gradually increase by 6 months every 2 years, to 67 years by 1 July 2023''

https://www.finder.com.au/australian-age-pension-eligibility-requirements

Can someone tell me how those that do physical work are expected to work for longer and longer?

Workstart (PovertyTrap) is the dole system here which is $555.70/fortnight so moving pensioners onto this saves the government money.