Labour Leader - Who's your preference?

[SouthStandFan]

People (including me originally) are confusing a mandate with a majority.

The Withdrawal Agreement is the closest thing to a compromise, but noone WILL compromise. Personally I'd be happy to remain in the current trade agreement, but that comes with freedom of movement which I personally wouldn't compromise on, and the EU wouldn't separate the four freedoms.

I don't agree that the UK (or any country) should be a net contributor to the EU. With the exception of reasonable running costs it should be cost neutral.

The vote in the 70s was for economics, not an agreement to merge nations, societies, militaries, minutiae legislation, etc etc. That's what I don't like about the EU, they have far too much influence over elements of the UK that they have no business being involved in.

I don't fit your purported Brexit voter demographic of being old and uneducated. I'm mid 30s, so a pure millennial, degree educated (good subject, crap uni lol). So the argument of Brexit voters dying off is not as relevant as Remain voters think. Look to the MEP elections recently for an indication of how a GE would go. Split again for all intents and purposes.

[SydneyRover]

People (including me originally) are confusing a mandate with a majority.

The Withdrawal Agreement is the closest thing to a compromise, but noone WILL compromise. Personally I'd be happy to remain in the current trade agreement, but that comes with freedom of movement which I personally wouldn't compromise on, and the EU wouldn't separate the four freedoms.

I don't agree that the UK (or any country) should be a net contributor to the EU. With the exception of reasonable running costs it should be cost neutral.

The vote in the 70s was for economics, not an agreement to merge nations, societies, militaries, minutiae legislation, etc etc. That's what I don't like about the EU, they have far too much influence over elements of the UK that they have no business being involved in.

I don't fit your purported Brexit voter demographic of being old and uneducated. I'm mid 30s, so a pure millennial, degree educated (good subject, crap uni lol). So the argument of Brexit voters dying off is not as relevant as Remain voters think. Look to the MEP elections recently for an indication of how a GE would go. Split again for all intents and purposes.

Where you say noone will compromise I assume means the tories cannot agree amongst themselves and will not compromise on anything less than no-deal with any other political party.

Why would you not want freedom of movement, the freedom to live and work anywhere within the EU borders.

''The EU has far too much influence'' if you want to be part of the wealthiest trading bloc in the world you have to give a little, having access to this market without tariffs benefits UK industry for more than many other members of the EU and we would gain far more than what it costs us pound for pound. The UK has been part of the negotiations that has resulted iin what the EU is today. Wait until any form of brexit is decided upon and then you will see what the nett cost to the UK is.

''I don't fit your purported Brexit voter demographic of being old and uneducated'' true but I'm glad you said it not me.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SSF

Several points in your post which you, as a bright lad, will, I think, find problematic when you read them back.

1) Economics. All economic groupings have a system for transferral of finds from the richer to the poorer. That works at local level (Council Tax takes more from wealthier families than poor ones but spends more or less equally on provisions). It works at national level where income tax is disproportionately paid by the wealthy.

The EU "tax" on countries is a tiny fraction of those amounts, but it has the same intention. Take from the richer. Give to the poorer. That isn't done for soft-headed purposes. It's done because a continent of half a billion where every region is economically successful is safer, richer and more secure than one where there are vast disparities of wealth.

I assume you know, by the way, that Doncaster is a massive net beneficiary of this process? Because we are among the poorest people in the EU.

2) Your comment on what sort of Brexit YOU want is illuminating. The fact that you have to explain it in 2019 sort of highlights the problems with the referendum in 2016. No one knew what Brexit meant. They knew what THEY, individually wanted. But that's not democracy. That's egoism.

You want proof that Brexit was an ill-determined concept? Go and Google Farage+Norway+2016. Farage relentlessly pushed Norway as a model to copy. Norway not only allows free movement of people as a price of being in the Single Market, it is actually in the Schengen area. Farage pushed that in 2016. No-one on the Leave side NOW says that's remotely acceptable.

And THAT is the overwhelming argument for Ref2. Ref2shoukd be on SPECIFIC outcomes. Not a badly defined concept that is open to manipulation.

3) YOU may be a young, graduate Brexit supporter. But you are in a very small minority. The only age group that has a majority of people supporting Brexit is over 65s. And it is an established fact (not my opinion) that there is a very strong correlation between lower educational qualifications and higher support for Brexit.

I do agree that the Remain side has a huge problem if it is not united. I've been hammering on that point to anyone in the Labour party who will listen to me for a long time.

[BillyStubbsTears]

what I find strange bst is you want what’s best for the U.k yet you want the party you will vote for to change there manifesto just to win a general election you want to win at all costs

Bpool.

It's very simple.

Labour have by far the best economic policies for the good of the country. And by far the best social policies.

I want a Labour Govt. For the good of the country. It stands to reason that I want Labour to present itself in the way that gives it the best chance of winning.

It just so happens that I think Labour's best chance of winning coincides with what I think is the best thing for the country on the Brexit issue too.

Your post suggests that you are looking for hypocrisy. You'll need to look elsewhere because you're not going to find it here. 

[SouthStandFan]

To answer a few of these points in one post:

Labour hasn’t exactly got a laudable economic record. They say they will reduce the deficit within 5 years, but will also end austerity? How can both be achieved at our current rate of expenditure (austere).

How quickly we forget that when the Treasury changed hands Labour left a note saying there’s no money left on the desk.

 
People do know what they voted for. It was made explicitly clear… leave the single market, end free movement of goods, capital and services. On that basis, a democratic decision was taken (not an ego decision). I’m all for the free movement of SKILLED people, of any nationality. If we need 5000 nurses in Doncaster Hospital and 5000 Romanian nurses want to work here, get them in. Thousands of unskilled immigrants with no prospect of employment… not so much. Have you been to Hexthorpe recently? Have you attended a primary school where the majority of children can’t speak a word of English, thus holding back the minority of English speaking children (of ANY Nationality). Have you tried to get a doctor’s appointment? Have you been on a Calais ferry recently, I did in January and let me tell you there were around a hundred vagrants arriving at Dover (on just the one ferry), and yes I’m judging a book by its cover but I would bet my house they are not net contributors to the UK.


A quick walk around Doncaster town centre would show you we aren’t exactly flourishing as a town, and it has a strong correlation to when the mass influx of migration began. I want to live in a multicultural, ethnically diverse… ENGLISH town. That’s not what we’ve ended up with though is it.

 
Lower academic qualifications doesn’t disbar someone from a valid opinion, and arguably it’s those in trades without a required qualification/degree that are most affected by free movement of goods and services.

 
Would I like free movement, no not at all. If I want to move to say Italy, and I have a secure job and something to offer the Italian economy, rest assured the company would get me there… regardless of there being no free movement agreement in place. Leaving the EU will make it more of an admin burden, but won’t stop it happening. Same works for skilled people coming here. If you’ve got the skills we need, come on in. Bring your kids, bring your wife.

 
More likely, I’ll move out of Donny as soon as I can! Anywhere in the countryside will do. And I guarantee I’ll be a net gain to the local economy wherever I move.


 

 

[SouthStandFan]

I'm just conscious that I've taken your discussion off topic. The best hope you ever had was David Milliband and for reasons beyond me you elected his brother , who was unelectable as a PM. I think Labours current woes, and the probably next generation of opposition (or possibly not even that) can be traced back to that leadership election.

[SydneyRover]

SSF you appear to have missed all the eveidence to show that Austerity is a manufactured program designed by tories, run by tories to benefit tories. That labour councils are fairing worst under this regime is abhorent. To give tax cuts to the highest earners so that you can then say oh my the country cannot afford to look after the poorest is shameful. Austerity doesn't help the country as a whole either as depriving those that spend all their money from week to week deflates the economy.

Labour-run areas suffer Tory cuts the most. It’s an ignored national scandal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/12/labour-councils-suffer-tory-cuts-most-ignored-scandal

Are Labour-run councils bearing the brunt of council cuts?

https://fullfact.org/news/are-labour-run-councils-bearing-brunt-council-cuts/

''A quick walk around Doncaster town centre would show you we aren’t exactly flourishing as a town, and it has a strong correlation to when the mass influx of migration began. I want to live in a multicultural, ethnically diverse… ENGLISH town. That’s not what we’ve ended up with though is it''

Not worth an answer

 

[SouthStandFan]

SSF you appear to have missed all the eveidence to show that Austerity is a manufactured program designed by tories, run by tories to benefit tories. That labour councils are fairing worst under this regime is abhorent. To give tax cuts to the highest earners so that you can then say oh my the country cannot afford to look after the poorest is shameful. Austerity doesn't help the country as a whole either as depriving those that spend all their money from week to week deflates the economy.

Labour-run areas suffer Tory cuts the most. It’s an ignored national scandal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/12/labour-councils-suffer-tory-cuts-most-ignored-scandal

Are Labour-run councils bearing the brunt of council cuts?

https://fullfact.org/news/are-labour-run-councils-bearing-brunt-council-cuts/

''A quick walk around Doncaster town centre would show you we aren’t exactly flourishing as a town, and it has a strong correlation to when the mass influx of migration began. I want to live in a multicultural, ethnically diverse… ENGLISH town. That’s not what we’ve ended up with though is it''

Not worth an answer

Nice high roading of me with your final point. Doesn't change the reality of our town though. That doesn't make me a xenophobe (or worse) but a realist.

The particular nuances of the austerity programme are not the point. The point is we need to be living an Austere fiscal programme as a country. Fact. We cannot keep spending at the rates Labour instilled.

And your ideas of high earners is probably different to mine. I see it as a lad growing up in a council house now in the high income bracket, having been encouraged by the promise of social mobility, when in reality I have more and more of my earned pay taken and those on only moderately less than me are handed it in the form of working tax credit, and in many instances are living a better or equal standard of living than me despite earning less. Unfair and frustrating.

[SouthStandFan]

I've just read through the two links you posted and I can't see how they backup your point. The FullFacts site shows that it's actually other sources of govt financing/funds that are more heavily drawn on by labour funded constituencies that is the reason they have less spending power per head, bolstered by the fact more affluent areas have higher council tax and thus an increased amount of spending power per head.

That Owen Jones tries to link it is a fallacy (false cause).

[BillyStubbsTears]

SSF

You're a depressing example if the way that voodoo economics has become ingrained as concrete fact in this country.

Austerity is, was and always will be economically illiterate. I haven't got time to go into the detail that I poured into here in 2010-13, but if you're really interested, you could start off by Googling The Paradox of Thrift.

[SouthStandFan]

SSF

You're a depressing example if the way that voodoo economics has become ingrained as concrete fact in this country.

Austerity is, was and always will be economically illiterate. I haven't got time to go into the detail that I poured into here in 2010-13, but if you're really interested, you could start off by Googling The Paradox of Thrift.

It's not the first time I've been described as depressing.

I certainly will Google that and have a read.

I'll bow out of this discussion now having derailed the original post (apologies).

Thank you for the debate.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Interesting change from Corbyn though.  Not easy for him as he had to let up on one side of his narrative, IE sticking by his principles or listening to what seemingly the majority in his party want.

It will clearly harm them in terms of the points made to leave voters, though they will now hope (and polls back this up to be fair) they'll win back more pro remain types to cover it.  Question is if it is far too late?

[SouthStandFan]

Too late I reckon. Does it matter though...

If Lib Dem and Labour take a lot of seats, enough to form a coalition and working majority. Then surely Brexit is off?

I don't want that. But it could happen.

[scawsby steve]

SSF

Although you're only half my age, your views on football and politics are very similar to mine, and my degree was at a crap uni as well.

BST

How on Earth does anyone know that the majority of 17.4 million people are uneducated? has someone asked them all? because nobody asked me.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No problem SSF. That's an interesting read.

For clarity, I wasn't calling you depressing. I meant it's depressing how bad the debate has been in this country.

Austerity was only ever a political choice. Osborne pressed that idea as a way to beat Labour. But it is utterly debunked as a sensible economic policy.

There WERE some academic economists who supported it in 2009/10. But there work has been ripped to shreds. The most shocking mistake was a Harvard economist who supported Austerity as a way to enable economic growth but it turned out he'd added up his numbers incorrectly in an Excel spreadsheet. (I shit you not. Google Rogoff Excel.)

The bit that people struggle with is that, when an economy is depressed, cutting Govt spending doesn't help. It makes it worse. That is as thoroughly proven an economic principle as there is. And it's the reason why we've had the worst decade of economic growth for 200 years.

And the really depressing thing is that it's still taken as read in this country that Austerity a) was inevitable and b) succeeded. It wasn't and it didn't.

Hammond knows that but he's tied by a party for whom Austerity has become a religion. Because they have no other ideas.

Here's the funny thing. McDonnell knows it, and his Economic policy is what is needed to get Capitalism working again. Even though he's a Marxist!

[selby]

The best way to stop investment in this country throughout my lifetime has been to elect a Labour government. The money people just take their money elsewhere for better returns, and unemployment goes up, and taxation for those in employment,

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS.

Here's one pretty unarguable piece of evidence. The data exists, broken down by council ward for:
%Leave vote
% of population who have degrees.

This is what happens when you plot one against the other.



Here's some more evidence from a large opinion poll immediately after the vote.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

Polls aren't perfect, but there are several that show the same results. And polling science means they don't have to ask everyone in the country to get a good idea of the general trends. In fact the fact that you point out that no one's asked you implies a degree of egoism! Which ties in with the number of Leavers who insist that since THEY know what they voted for, everyone else must have voted for the same thing...


No one is trying to pull your piece. It IS established beyond argument that Brexit supporters were disproportionately older and disproportionately of lower educational qualification level.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SSF

I missed out an important point earlier. The reason Austerity is such shockingly bad economics is because of the Multiplier Effect. That's another very well established economic concept.

It says that (especially when the economy is depressed) Govt spending on the economy kick starts other economic activity.

If the Govt spends £100m on new houses, that puts money in the pockets of builders. They buy stuff. That puts money in other people's pockets. Etc. Etc. The effect of this is that many, many more people than the original beneficiaries feel the positive effect. So general confidence grows and there is a virtuous circle on economic performance. So the overall economic output of the country increases by much more than the £100m that the Govt borrowed and spent.

This has a long term effect, and as a result of the higher output, the Govt collects more tax. Which, over a few years, covers the £100m the Govt borrowed and invested.

THAT'S the bit that's hard to grasp. Spending more money, in the right way REDUCES Govt debt.

This isn't rocket science. It's well-established economics. You might want to ask why the Tory party has wilfully ignored it for a decade, resulting in a horrifying loss of wealth to the country.

[scawsby steve]

BST

That's the difference between you and me. You believe polls, stats, and data; I don't, because they can all be doctored to suit certain viewpoints and opinions.

Why do you think the Referendum and so many elections in recent years have been wrongly forecasted?

[wilts rover]

New ComRes Poll out today confirms the stats Billy posted earlier. Labour have lost twice as many remain voters than leave. The Tories have lost twice as many leavers than remain.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1148624723401740290

[SouthStandFan]

No one is trying to pull your piece. It IS established beyond argument that Brexit supporters were disproportionately older and disproportionately of lower educational qualification level.

What I'm saying... as a young(er), graduate leave voter..... is that being young and having been through higher education doesn't make your vote more "correct" than another

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS

1) The image I posted was nothing to do with polling.

2) Yes opinion polls have margins of error. But they are generally correct to within a few percent. It's stretching credibility way beyond breaking point to think that the figures in that poll I sent you aren't broadly correct.

You know what I think? I reckon you are simply ignoring evidence that you don't want to be correct.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No one is trying to pull your piece. It IS established beyond argument that Brexit supporters were disproportionately older and disproportionately of lower educational qualification level.

What I'm saying... as a young(er), graduate leave voter..... is that being young and having been through higher education doesn't make your vote more "correct" than another

I agree.

[BillyStubbsTears]

New ComRes Poll out today confirms the stats Billy posted earlier. Labour have lost twice as many remain voters than leave. The Tories have lost twice as many leavers than remain.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1148624723401740290

Interesting figures Wilts. Looks like Labour might be bouncing back.

Interesting thing is that in the worst polls for Labour, the lost Remain supporters were outnumbering the lost Leave voters by more like 3-4 times. That suggest that if Lab IS rebounding, it's doing so by pulling back Remain supporters from the LDs.

Let's hope so. 

[wilts rover]

And that poll was done before todays news so we still await news what effect it will have.

As I have said before my concern is that it will attract LD voters in the wrong areas. There is no point having a bigger majority in London & Bristol if some northern leave seats will be lost. I wonder though if it might have a galvanising effect on Scottish Labour? Can they challenge the LD's there as the party or remain and remaining in the union?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I understand that concern.

But, as I've been saying, the fact that Labour held seats in the North voted Leave does not automatically mean that the majority of Labour voters in the North are Leave supporters.

This poll says that there are more working class Remain supporters among people who voted Labour in 2017 than there are working class Leave supporters.
https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140939099538436096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1140939099538436096&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theneweuropean.co.uk%2Ftop-stories%2Fyougov-on-labour-voters-1-6112720

It's bizarre that, egged on by the likes of Mann and Flint, Labour have been told that their policy must pander to that small fraction of Labour's support. While ignoring the haemorrhaging of support among the much larger pool of both working and middle class Remain supporters.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way Wilts. That ComRes poll.

This shows the extent of Labour's ongoing problem once Boris is PM.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ComRes/status/1148540233430048768

[wilts rover]

It's a bigger lead with yougov

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1148555274879414273

But 'neither' is well ahead here
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1148581977160867845

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's quite clear that YouGov have a different way of crunching the numbers to Opinium and ComRes, that is giving bigger predictions for how many Lab supporters have gone to LD. We'll not know which one is right until an election, but it's clear that Labour has a hell of a job to catch up with a Johnson-led Tory party.

[SydneyRover]

The best way to stop investment in this country throughout my lifetime has been to elect a Labour government. The money people just take their money elsewhere for better returns, and unemployment goes up, and taxation for those in employment,

Some reading for you while you walk the dog Selby

FactCheck Q&A: Which party has a better track record on the economy?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-which-party-has-a-better-track-record-on-the-economy