Surely Corbyn has to go...

[wing commander]

YouGov’s latest poll puts the Conservatives on 31%, ahead of Labour on 22, the Lib Dems on 21 and the Brexit Party on 14. The poll also finds that 39% of people think Boris Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, ahead of 19% for Jeremy Corbyn and 37% for ‘don’t know’ 

  Surely nobody can argue that Corbyn simply has to go if Labour stand a snowballs chance in hell of winning a election

[GazLaz]

He’s got zero and always had zero. Labour have wasted the last couple of years he’s been in charge. He’s done more harm than good to their reputation. Not entirely all his fault mind you.

[Herbert Anchovy]

The ‘Poll of Polls’ formulated by The British Polling Council and taken from all polling data has the scores as:

Conservatives - 25
Labour - 25
Liberals - 19
Brexit Party - 19
Green Party - 8
Others - 4

[wilts rover]

It has been a common theme of people saying that Corbyn would take the Labour Party back to the 1970's and it seems that stats show exactly that.

Total number of Labour members as of December 2018 - 518,659

This means that Labour membership has been above 500,000 in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (i.e. for 3 years in a row)

The last time Labour had 500k members for 3 successive years in a row was in the 1970s

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1159471721314996225

[BillyStubbsTears]

Problem is Wilts, 500k members means bugger all when you need 10-12 million votes to win a General Election.

And HA, it's all very well quoting poll of poll figures, but those include ComRes figures that spectacularly over estimated Labour's vote in the recent EU elections.

You Gov got those results bang on and they are now consistently showing Labour 10 points behind the Tories.

[Herbert Anchovy]

BST

You Gov significantly under estimated Labours score in the 2017 GE

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes that's true, but methodologies change over time, and the dynamics of voter choice change.

The key issue now on the centre-left is how people are dividing between Labour, LD, Green and to a lesser extent the SNP and Plaid Cymru and how votes on the right are splitting between the Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP.

The latter, between them have been polling at a consistent 42-45% for months. The former have been equally consistent at 54-56%.

That suggest very strongly that there are effectively two bodies of voters - pro and anti Brexiters. The result of the upcoming General Election will be pretty much exactly determined by whether those two groups spread their votes between multiple parties or focus them on one. The pro-Brexit group is firming up behind the Tories, with UKIP vanishing and the BP dropping back. That's clear. Less clear is what's happening to the anti-Brexit side.

The difference between the pollsters is predominantly how they predict the latter group splits.

You Gov are producing figures showing  Lab 20-22% LD 20-22% and Greens about 8-9%. ComRes, Survation and Opinium have Lab on 27-30, LD on 15-18 and the Greens on 3-5.

One of those sets of data is wrong.

So the sensible thing to do is to look at how the different approaches worked in predicting actual recent results like the May EU elections.

The actual results were:

Lab 14.1
LD 20.3
Green 12.1

ComRes's final poll was

Lab 22
LD 14
Green 7

Survation's last one was
Lab 23
LD 12
Green 7

Opinium's last one was
Lab 17
LD 15
Green 7

YouGov's last one was
Lab 13
LD 19
Green 12

It's pretty obvious which one got that vote right.

Labour supporters can convince themselves that data they don't like is wrong, but that is a very, very risky approach. I've been worried for the past two years that we were going to see precisely the situation that YouGov are showing - Labour's ham-fisted mess of a Brexit policy meaning that the majority in the country who want a Johnson Tory party stopped will be hopelessly lacking direction and leadership, and will give him a free run.

Don't say you weren't warned if that happens.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For anyone interested, here's a Twitter thread from Anthony Wells of YouGov about current differences in polling methodology which may explain some of the current polling discrepancies

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1152198934267387905

By the way, as a Labour member, I WANT the ComRes polls to be right and the YG ones to be wrong. But I think it's a dangerous approach to just assume that they are.

[albie]

BST,

Separate the signal from the noise!

What matters is NOT the aggregate national trend that the polls try to capture, but the distribution of voting intentions in the key marginals.
From that, the weight given under FPTP makes those "bellweathers" determine the outcome.

So an increase in Tory support in Guildford say....with votes swapping from Farrago to BoJo, boosts the Tory national assessment, but is of no importance in the distribution of seats.

In addition, the plasticity of voting intention is subject to manipulation in the final days of a GE campaign. 
This is where the action is, and this is what Cummings is presently targeting, with the Facebook initiative.

It is much more difficult to predict an outcome with a 4 way split in which votes can transfer in several directions.
Whether that will continue is an important consideration.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I agree.

But there's a simple first order issue.

If the Tories recapture votes from BP and Labour don't recapture votes from LD/Green, then you've got a Boris Johnson majority Govt in the Autumn. Everything else is detail.

Put it another way, if the national vote shares in the upcoming GE turn out like current YG polls, Labour is f**ked, regardless of how local variations pan out.

If the vote shares are like ComRes say, then yes, the detailed regional breakdowns are crucial.

[SydneyRover]

That a racist liar and cheat can poll so highly shows that it's the control of the media and message that's the problem, it was the problem with the 2016 vote and it's the problem now. Imagine if labour put forward such a disreputable person to lead the party what the outcry would be.

[SouthStandFan]

Labour have a proven hard core of anti-semites... yet here we are calling the PM racist.

There's a party with a deep running hatred of Jewish people, with a "leader" doing nothing to address it, while simultaneously denouncing his long standing views on Europe.

I seem to remember another National Socialist party did quite well on a manifesto of hating Jews....

[SydneyRover]

SSF, I think you're on very thin ice trying to protect the man that talks about piccaninnies with watermelon smiles and the party that gave us Windrush.

Being anti-Israel policy is not the same as anti-semitic, I think many are throwing accusations around knowing the difference.


Edit: 'I called out Palestinian suffering – and was met by antisemitic abuse’

''Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan was trying to improve lives for sick children, but she unleashed a torrent of trolling''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/03/rosena-allin-khan-israel-children-hospital-human-rights

Further Edit: And that still leaves the liar and cheat bit to deal with but you must be ok with that?

Further additional edit: I will add this cos I really do not want to get into a racism debate but ............. the standard you walk by ............. If one of the players or staff at our family friendly club had said what boris has said would we take action against that individual, I think we would, at least I hope we would as I don't think I could support a club that brushed it off. And that's the problem we are a club, one of many working hard to drive racism out of sport and yet the leader of the party in government does not see it as a problem.

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-called-a-racist-as-his-past-remarks-are-read-out-in-commons-11744991

[wing commander]

That a racist liar and cheat can poll so highly shows that it's the control of the media and message that's the problem, it was the problem with the 2016 vote and it's the problem now. Imagine if labour put forward such a disreputable person to lead the party what the outcry would be.

   And there it is,the normal head in the sand approach blaming everybody else again, the media, the tory's,blah blah...It's never your fault

   When will you people accept that the British people do not and never will support Jeremy Corbyn enough to elect him into No 10..As a Labour supporter you are sat here with a great opportunity to get elected to Government but you seem determined to pi** it up against the wall....

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Albie.

I agree.

But there's a simple first order issue.

If the Tories recapture votes from BP and Labour don't recapture votes from LD/Green, then you've got a Boris Johnson majority Govt in the Autumn. Everything else is detail.

Put it another way, if the national vote shares in the upcoming GE turn out like current YG polls, Labour is f**ked, regardless of how local variations pan out.

If the vote shares are like ComRes say, then yes, the detailed regional breakdowns are crucial.

Having said that, Labour are fairly good at getting their vote shored up when it comes down to it, despite their poor leader.  Whether they can bring in those who aren't core followers remains a question and if the Libs can get the Remain vote it could be positive.

There's lots for the leaders to think about, does Farage want to take the Tory vote down and risk a Labour/Lib government or will they collude (in places like Doncaster for example)?  Will the Libs/Labour/SNP work together to take Tory seats (more likely IMO, you can see that with Mcdonnell's comments on independence)?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unfortunately, I think there is less than zero chance of a formal collaboration between Lab and LD. I say "unfortunately" because it is the splitting of votes between them that will secure Johnson in No10 if it is not addressed.

So it's going to come down to individuals making hard-headed tactical voting decisions. And in the current tumultuous political times, it's going to be very, very difficult for individuals to make the call correctly.

[SydneyRover]

That a racist liar and cheat can poll so highly shows that it's the control of the media and message that's the problem, it was the problem with the 2016 vote and it's the problem now. Imagine if labour put forward such a disreputable person to lead the party what the outcry would be.

   And there it is,the normal head in the sand approach blaming everybody else again, the media, the tory's,blah blah...It's never your fault

   When will you people accept that the British people do not and never will support Jeremy Corbyn enough to elect him into No 10..As a Labour supporter you are sat here with a great opportunity to get elected to Government but you seem determined to pi** it up against the wall....

I've said all along that if Corbyn doesn't change his position he'll have to go, I don't agree that he can't lead labor to a win except that he may have left it too late to make a case.

By the way WC I don't put blame on boris for anything I blame those allow him the largesse, his supporters.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Corbyn's massive problem has been the self-delusion of the Left.

When he pulled off his huge success in getting 40% in 2017, the Left convinced itself that this was because there was a massive popular movement wanting a Corbyn Government.

THAT is a huge historic mistake.

There wasn't ever a great deal of desire in the country for a Corbyn Govt. His approval ratings have been among the lowest of any political leader since the War.

What happened in 2017 was that Corbyn brilliantly convinced left of centre Leave and Remain supporters that he was on both their sides over Brexit.

I've said for 2 years that brilliant coup couldn't last, and that as we approached Brexit, he'd inevitably piss off one side or the other. That's exactly what has happened. He's seen something between 4-6million previous Labour supporters (depending on which pollsters is right) desert Labour for the Lads or Greens.

That exposes the myth that the Left spun around the 2017 GE Labour performance. And we're now facing the reality that, even on the best polling figures, Labour is more unpopular than it has been for over a century.

And he is utterly untouchable...

[SouthStandFan]

How am I on thin ice? Conflating race, class, surname with other deplorable traits is in and of itself bigoted.
I havent defended the watermelon smiles, picanninies etc. I'm saying you have to separate that from the factors of his personality and persona that he cannot change and was born into.

It is EXACTLY the same as having an issue with someone with a middle eastern surname, or for example saying "how could SSF ever run the country, he grew up in a council house"

Labour will not win an election with Corbyn at the helm and as the other post says it is delusional, the labour party have truly cocked up the chance for a decade in number 10, it is laughable really if it wasnt tragic. We need a sensible, coherent Oppostion and we've actually got a rabble of chancers and student councillors, with a sprinkling of communism and anti semite agendas for good measure.

[wilts rover]

48% of people voted Tory in 2017 because of their stance on Brexit. There were so few people who quoted it as a reason they voted Labour it didn't even register in the polls. The main reason was the anti-austerity agenda.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener

Surely everyone who thought Brexit and the UK's place in Europe is important would have voted in the EU elections. Turnout was 37%. The turnout in 2017 was 69%.

Sorry but even if you think Brexit and the EU is important a good proportion of the public dont. That's why the Brexit Party did well in EU elections but Labour won the Peterborough by-election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Go on Wilts. Keep on convincing yourself.

But your analysis has a massive hole in the middle of it.

For the past two years, across the entire range of pollsters, the combined poll ratings of Lab+LD+Green+SNP+PC (effectively the "non-right wing" group of parties) has stayed rock steady at 53-56%. In the 2017 GE, the combined vote share of that bloc was 53.9%. Labour took 41% of it.

Throughout 2017 and 2018, Labour's share was in the range 40-45% in polls.

Since Xmas, it's dropped to somewhere between 20-28%. The 15-20% that Labour has lost has gone almost entirely to the LDs and Greens.

Do you think that 5-6million people, all of a sudden this winter and spring, decided that the LDs and Greens had better policies than Labour on the economy, the NHS, buses, trains, the environment and defence? Or might there have been some other reason?

You quote the Peterborough result and entirely miss the key message.

In the 2017 GE, Labour took 48.1% of the vote, the LDs 3.3% and the Greens 1.8%.

In June's by-election, the figures were Lab 30.9%, LD 12.3%, Greens 3.3%.

Labour's vote share fell by SEVENTEEN percent! That is bang in line with the national polling trend. And that was with a massive influx of supporters from all over the country in a mega-cavassing effort. Seeing that that as a victory takes a special kind of myopia.

You can convince yourself that there's 40% of the population out there rooting for Corbyn, and then you can blame the non-believers for not buying that if you wish, when fewer than 30% vote Labour in the upcoming General Election. Equally, you can convince yourself that people will vote in Oct/Nov on Austerity or the Health Service. But that's wishful thinking. The upcoming election will be dominated by Brexit. And Johnson will have a simple, clear, 5-6 syllable strap line that he will hammer on relentlessly.

If Labour don't match that, prepare for Johnson to be PM for the next 5 years.

[SydneyRover]

How am I on thin ice? Conflating race, class, surname with other deplorable traits is in and of itself bigoted.
I havent defended the watermelon smiles, picanninies etc. I'm saying you have to separate that from the factors of his personality and persona that he cannot change and was born into.

It is EXACTLY the same as having an issue with someone with a middle eastern surname, or for example saying "how could SSF ever run the country, he grew up in a council house"

Labour will not win an election with Corbyn at the helm and as the other post says it is delusional, the labour party have truly cocked up the chance for a decade in number 10, it is laughable really if it wasnt tragic. We need a sensible, coherent Oppostion and we've actually got a rabble of chancers and student councillors, with a sprinkling of communism and anti semite agendas for good measure.

That boris is racist is there in black and white and you support him, therefore you have no argument, by the way it didn't go unnoticed the bit of dog whistling about Romanians the other day either but bst shut you down without a whimper.

[SouthStandFan]

I dont know what dog whistling is.

Shut me down without a whimper lol ok.

If you think I am racist I'd love to know where the proof is. I can assure you, as I've stated in other posts, I dont judge people on race, sex, or any other protected characteristic.

To be honest I came on here to chat about the rovers and through my own insistence on getting involved in politics chat I've ended up branded a racist with no good cause.

Good luck to you all. I'm best off sticking to the rovers chat section as I've clearly met my intellectual betters in here.

If you or any admin/mod believe I'm racist please just drop a ban and I'll be on my way.

[BigH]

Surely Corbyn has to go...

Absolutely, 100% yes.

BST's quantitative analysis is impressive enough but there are a number of qualitative factors that also support the argument. 

Does anyone genuinely think that this career, protest politician who is over 70 years of age, has never run a government department or held a ministerial position in his life and is noted for being congenitally indecisive is the future of this country? I mean he's hardly Nelson Mandela is he.

He's lived off what happened in 2017 for far too long. Remember that, until that point, Labour was on course for its biggest electoral annihilation since 1983. Putting to one side May's inept electioneering, the trick that team Corbyn pulled off was to move the debate away from Brexit to other relevant issues (e.g. tuition fees). This saw a surge in the youth vote and a respectable outcome. But it won't happen again. Those youngsters have grown up a bit and they no longer believe in Corbyn. And nor will the new cohort of voters once their older brothers and sisters tell them that Corbyn promises far more than he delivers.

The funny thing is, I suspect that Corbyn himself knows this. McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry and others probably do too. But he's a hostage to Milne, McCluskey and Lavery; a bunch of zealots who would rather remain ideologically pure - although I'm not quite sure what that ideology is - than to seriously undertake to become electable.

[Ldr]

Realistically though, like it or not elections are ultimately determined by a combination of personality and who looks more like a leader rather than policies.

May was (barely) more statesman like than Corbyn
Cameron > Milliband
Cameron > Brown (though a lot of residual Blair affection)
Blair > Major, Duncan-Smith, Howard
Major > Kinnock
Thatcher > Callaghan, Foot and Kinnock

The public gets what the public (thinks) it wants...................

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's a very good point Ldr, and one I hadn't clocked.

I wonder what was the last time that a party won a GE with a leader that was less popular than the main opposing party's leader?

I've got a bell tinkling in the back of my head saying that Callaghan was more popular than Thatcher in 79 and losing to her. Possibly Heath beating Wilson in 70 despite being less popular.

Whichever it was, it doesn't bode well for Labour this Autumn.

[SydneyRover]

''And the sermon for today is 'do as I say not as I do' as the Cummings of the truth will be upon us, for ours is the power of the euro which is not for the likes of the riff raff''

''Brexit enforcer Cummings’ farm took €235,000 in EU handouts

Boris Johnson aide, a strident critic of Brussels, is accused of hypocrisy over payments''

''Boris Johnson’s controversial enforcer, Dominic Cummings, an architect of Brexit and a fierce critic of Brussels, is co-owner of a farm that has received €250,000 (£235,000) in EU farming subsidies, the Observer can reveal.

The revelation is a potential embarrassment for the mastermind behind Johnson’s push to leave the EU by 31 October. Since being appointed as Johnson’s chief adviser, Cummings has presented the battle to leave the EU as one between the people and the politicians. He positions himself as an outsider who wants to demolish elites, end the “absurd subsidies” paid out by the EU and liberate the UK from its arcane rules and regulations''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy

€20,000 a year for most of the last two decades. Not a bad little earner aye?