HS2 - Could be scraped

[Draytonian III]

I’m pleased for you

[BillyStubbsTears]

Thank you. Was there a point you wanted to make?

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way Albie. You were asking how much we should be spending. Again I don't know if you mean on HS2 or on infrastructure in general, but my gut feeling is that a sane UK Govt would be spending at least £20bn/year more, ideally £40-50bn more than we actually are spending on capital investment. That'd be an extra 1-2% of GDP. Which would be investment for the future benefit of the country, as well as Keynesian stimulus to get us out of the worst decade of economic growth for 150 years.

That £50bn would, if I ruled the world, go probably something like £7bn/year on strategic rail, £2-3bn/year on local/light rail/metro systems £15bn/year on housing, £20bn/year on green energy and the rest on schools, cable network and roads.

[drfchound]

For someone who has no connection with the rail industry you seem to be very well read on the subject

I think that BST is in some way connected to a political party and his work involves that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Another one wrong.

Why not engage with the arguments rather than assume everyone has hidden motives?

I'm not sure how much plainer I can be. I don't have ANY links to the rail industry. I'm a member of the Labour party but I don't work for it.

I care about the infrastructure of the country because I want to live in a decent, modern, successful nation.

Do you folk regularly get deceived and assume everyone is trying to cheat you?

[drfchound]

Well I got the first part of my guess right.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've made that pretty clear over the years. Should also be pretty clear that I strongly disagree with a good few of their policies.

What with that and the fact that your second part was miles off, I've no idea where this is going.

[drfchound]

If you have mentioned it over the years I haven’t noticed it BST.
But then again I generally avoid the political threads on here so don’t read much of what you write on them.
I only got to posting on this one because I am vehemently opposed to the waste of money that is HS2.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

Then, like I say, engage with the arguments and don't go looking for false agendas.

Feel free to give your reasons for being vehemently opposed to HS2.

[Sprotyrover]

Billy stated early doors that he lives in Sheffield, that's where the self interest comes in. The Pinch points at Hitchin, Peterborough and Rossington can be ironed out on the ECML they are already up grading signalling, once the new trains can travel at 140 mph you will be looking at Kings Cross to Doncaster in less than 75 minutes.we don't need HS2. We do need better Coast to Coast east to west services and that where the money should be spent.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And, once again Sorry, I think we should be spending on HS2 AND HS3, AND improvements to existing lines.

It's truly astonishing how folk insist on seeing only what they want someone to be saying.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating responses here.

You disagree with me, therefore you are arguing in bad faith. It's not about facts and evidence and honest opinions. You've got some selfish interest in this and that's why you disagree with me.

Is this what we've come to?

[drfchound]

It could be argued that you have the selfish interest BST.
You have told us that you use the trains quite a lot so I can see why you would want HS2 to go ahead.
There are plenty of people who don’t want HS2 to go ahead but you are the one who keeps arguing against everyone.
There isn’t a bottomless pit of money to provide HS2, improve all the other services, improve schools, prop up the NHS etc etc etc.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound

Like someone else pointed out, by the time HS2 gets to Sheffield, I'll be knocking on for retirement.

As I've said multiple times, I was HS2 and 3, and lots of other infrastructure investment because it's what the future economy of the country needs. We've had decades of underinvestment in infrastructure and we needs decades of additional investment to correct that.

Very telling though that you assume people only act out of selfish interest.


Regarding cost, I assume you know that our  spends considerably less on capital investment that the OECD average and way, WAY less than countries like Denmark or Sweden. Are they debt-ridden, backward, benighted hell-holes?

The fact is that we can and should be spending on ALL the infrastructure that we need. And in the permanently depressed economy that we have (we've had ONE year in the past 12 where growth has hit the long term average) it is actually economic stupidity not to make that investment, because it pays for itself.

But you keep telling yourself I'm lying to you about my motives, eh?

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, I'll say again for the umpteenth time. Spending on capital investment (like railways) does not in any way compromise our ability to pay for current spending (like the education or NHS budget).

So your opposition to HS2 is based on a simple misunderstanding of Govt economics.

[drfchound]

....and once again the news tells us that the costings for HS2 have been massively understated, surprise surprise.
But hey, let’s just crack on with it, it doesn’t matter how much it is going to cost.

[Axholme Lion]

What about all the damage to the countryside? I don't want to live in a concrete jungle full of roads, railways, dreary concrete blocks of flats etc.

[albie]

Billy Goat Gruff,

What you are really saying is that you disagree with the method used by the DfT to evaluate projects for value, the cost benefit analysis.

Fair enough, a new government could change the methodology.

But HS2 was approved under the present rules. This is a problem if it then proves that the business case was dependent upon costs that were massaged down, in order to get approval.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49482701

I agree that Borump needs to park this pending an election, as it is a vote loser for him. I expect him to push it through if he is still in power afterwards. He likes the big statement project.

Here is the Labour response;
https://labour.org.uk/press/government-knew-hs2-overspend-mcdonald-responds/

I am open to the case for high speed rail. I just don't think it should by-pass the rules.

[Pancho Regan]

BST

To say that we should be investing in HS2.... AND cross-country east coast to west cost rail improvements .... AND improving the NHS .... AND investing more in schools..... AND etc etc.

What planet are you living on?

Where I’m living:

We’ve had to help our village school financially because it couldn’t pay for swimming lessons for its pupils;

Our two local libraries have closed due to lack of funding and insufficient volunteers to run them;

The local council can’t afford to clear litter from the roadsides so we have a group of volunteers who do a monthly ‘litter-pick’;

A rural bus service has been withdrawn in our area because the number of passengers didn’t make the service profitable;

Three post offices in ours and our neighbouring villages have closed in the last four years because the people running them could no longer make a living. Old folk in our village now rely on friendly neighbours to collect their pensions;

Our local hospital has just issued a status report which declares it is ‘over-burdened’ and ‘beyond capacity’.
This is the primary maternity and A & E hospital in our district.

And we are talking about spending billions to reduce the travel time by rail from Yorkshire to London.

If we can do HS2 AND all these other things, how do we afford them?
And why aren’t we doing them already?

This is the reality in my world. I look forward to moving to Cloud Cuckoo Land at some future point.

[drfchound]

Has that magic money tree suddenly sprouted.
Hallelujah.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pancho

2 things.

1) There is no connection between the capital budget (for infrastructure) and the current budget (for paying for recurring things that leave nothing tangible). So, massive capital investment in infrastructure is perfectly possible without affecting current spending. In fact, massive infrastructure investment helps increase the money available for the current budget today (through the multiplier effect) and in the future (because it increases our ability to work efficiently and make money).

2) Schools and council budgets have been slashed viciously over the past decade by this Tory Govt. It wasn't necessary. It was a political choice by them, based on idiotic economics. It didn't have to happen, it shouldn't have happened and it can be reversed tomorrow if the political will is there. But, if you want to be able to pay for schools in 50 years time, you damn well better invest in infrastructure today. Otherwise, in 50 years time, your economy is a basket case and you can't afford anything.

The basic problem is viewing national Govt spending like a household budget. It's not. It has far greater effects. When Govt spends on infrastructure, it massively boosts the economy, increases growth, puts more money into circulation and creates a positive cycle. When interest rates are zero, like now, it is insane for Govts not to borrow to invest in infrastructure.

[tommy toes]

BST

To say that we should be investing in HS2.... AND cross-country east coast to west cost rail improvements .... AND improving the NHS .... AND investing more in schools..... AND etc etc.

What planet are you living on?

Where I’m living:

We’ve had to help our village school financially because it couldn’t pay for swimming lessons for its pupils;

Our two local libraries have closed due to lack of funding and insufficient volunteers to run them;

The local council can’t afford to clear litter from the roadsides so we have a group of volunteers who do a monthly ‘litter-pick’;

A rural bus service has been withdrawn in our area because the number of passengers didn’t make the service profitable;

Three post offices in ours and our neighbouring villages have closed in the last four years because the people running them could no longer make a living. Old folk in our village now rely on friendly neighbours to collect their pensions;

Our local hospital has just issued a status report which declares it is ‘over-burdoned’ and ‘beyond capacity’.
This is the primary maternity and A & E hospital in our district.

And we are talking about spending billions to reduce the travel time by rail from Yorkshire to London.

If we can do HS2 AND all these other things, how do we afford them?
And why aren’t we doing them already?

This is the reality in my world. I look forward to moving to Cloud Cuckoo Land at some future point.

It's simple.
We use MONEY.
And if you think that's a flippant answer, it's not.
We have access to the money that would easily pay for all of these things.

We aren't providing for the things you mention because the Tory government have chosen not to.

Edit: BST beat me to it with his more thorough reply.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No TT. Yours is much more to the point.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the political context.

When a country borrows a lot, the way it deals with it over the next couple of generations is by high inflation. You basically deal with debt by making it smaller compared to the cost of everything else. But that eats into the value of the savings of the rich. So the Tories don't want borrowing.

Pancho - THAT is why your school and buses and council facilities are f**ked.

[Pancho Regan]

BST

To say that we should be investing in HS2.... AND cross-country east coast to west cost rail improvements .... AND improving the NHS .... AND investing more in schools..... AND etc etc.

What planet are you living on?

Where I’m living:

We’ve had to help our village school financially because it couldn’t pay for swimming lessons for its pupils;

Our two local libraries have closed due to lack of funding and insufficient volunteers to run them;

The local council can’t afford to clear litter from the roadsides so we have a group of volunteers who do a monthly ‘litter-pick’;

A rural bus service has been withdrawn in our area because the number of passengers didn’t make the service profitable;

Three post offices in ours and our neighbouring villages have closed in the last four years because the people running them could no longer make a living. Old folk in our village now rely on friendly neighbours to collect their pensions;

Our local hospital has just issued a status report which declares it is ‘over-burdoned’ and ‘beyond capacity’.
This is the primary maternity and A & E hospital in our district.

And we are talking about spending billions to reduce the travel time by rail from Yorkshire to London.

If we can do HS2 AND all these other things, how do we afford them?
And why aren’t we doing them already?

This is the reality in my world. I look forward to moving to Cloud Cuckoo Land at some future point.

It's simple.
We use MONEY.
And if you think that's a flippant answer, it's not.
We have access to the money that would easily pay for all of these things.

We aren't providing for the things you mention because the Tory government have chosen not to.

Edit: BST beat me to it with his more thorough reply.

Ah yes, of course, silly me.
We use money.

All this money that the Government have been secretly hiding away for a rainy day.
Are you saying we should borrow all the billions required for HS2 plus the other billions to sort out the issues I mentioned in my post above?

And if we ‘invest’ these billions in HS2 will we reap the benefits in the future thanks to the huge boost to our economy because we can get to London more quickly?

Do we have to get to London to reach this pot of gold at the end of the HS2 rainbow?
Or could we generate more business up here in the north without the need to travel down south?

[Pancho Regan]

The reality is that we don’t have the money to resolve all of the issues facing us, thanks to huge mis-management of the country’s finances over the last 10 years or more.

We should cut our losses on HS2 and channel that money into much more important priorities.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pancho.

If we build HS2 and HS3 over 20 years, it will amount to 0.4% of GDP per year.

AND, nearly all of that will go straight into the UK economy. Into the pockets of steel bashers and concreters and engineers and designers. Who will spend in and thereby support and create more jobs.

It's Economics 101. But we've been bullshitted for a decade by this rabble that it is not possible. They are wrong. It's entirely possible if you have the political will.

[drfchound]

I am more and more convinced that BST is a very active member of the Labour Party.

[Bentley Bullet]

That makes sense Hound. A bloke who thinks spending billions on a new railway is a priority to a country that won't have any food on its shelves sounds about right.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And you're wrong again Hound.

Like I say. Engage with the arguments instead of (badly) trying to guess a hidden agenda.