IRAN!!

[wing commander]

   A month or so ago when this crisis started we had a debate on whether this was being orchestrated by Trump to give him ammunition to have justification for throwing a few air strikes his way..

   At the time I thought that this was the case and Iran were being set-up for this.However after another month of incidents I have to say I've changed my mind completely..Since then we've had the Iranian oil tanker incident were the Iranians gave written gurantee's that the ship wouldn't sell it's oil to Syria.They promptly sailed straight to Syria and flogged it to them..Of that there is no doubt after satellite pictures showed the vessel (riding high in the water, so empty) sailing out of the main oil port of Syria...

   In the meantime they succeeded after a few previous failed attempts to pirate a British registered tanker that was clearly sailing in International waters and hijack it's crew.They were disappointed to find no British personal on board (there rarely is) and since then have been harassing all tankers asking them if there is British onboard.That has now stopped since we have 2 frigates patrolling the area...

  I fully expected the USA to strike after that but for once restraint has taken hold and they didn't happen and he went even further by sacking John Bolton,a hawk who was pushing for action..With Trump even hinting that talks were possible between the two sides..

  That has been closely followed by the attack on the oil fields this weekend,a action that causes the USA to release some of it's reserves to stabilise the price of crude that flew up on the markets after the attack..Of course the Iran aligned Houthi rebels have claimed that one,but it's just not possible,firstly they don't have the kind of weaponary to be able to construct that kind of accurate well planned attack and secondly the missiles came from the opposite direction which of course is Iran...

  It's almost as if Iran is trying to somehow try and galvanise the middle east behind it by coaxing the Americans into retaliation strikes on them..They are playing a very dangerous game and it's worrying because surely American patience is wearing thin especially after an attack on the Kingdom,who are one of if not the most important ally's the Americans have and all this comes down to money and oil...

  How can tensions be defused if one country just want to keep pushing the others boundary's I feel it's getting toward last chance saloon before it seriously escalates....

[wing commander]

  One of my main hobby's is trading the markets,In another unproven twist at this stage there are a few rumours circulating around the financial houses that large sums of money were invested in long positions on crude oil at the back end of last week larger than the normal trading averages..

  So someone somewhere has made an awful lot of serious money with Crude trading higher by 20% at some points on last nights trading before settling back to 10%...

[Filo]

I’m sure the USA in secret are telling Russia to get their mates Iran to back off and some sort of strike agreed with themselves to show the rest of the world and Iran to stop playing about

[wing commander]

Thing is I'm not convinced the Russians will play much ball with that,anything that has the Americans on the back foot is good with them and Iran doesn't seem to keen to listen to anybody..We saw when the Syrians made chemical attacks on their own people how far the Russians would go in defending them..Half the Russian fleet sailed the week after and while in the end they sat 5 miles of the American fleet while they launched airstrikes and watched the intent was there..They would do the same here and that's not even considering the stance of the Chinese...This really has the possibility to escale out of hand very quickly I fear...

[wing commander]

And right on cue they have today detained a UAE tanker..

[Sprotyrover]

Trump is a businessman and war is bad for businessmen unless they are in the Arms trade.
The Iranians are clearly goading the West, I don't like where this is going
Iran will clearly continue pushing the boat out,I think they will be happy if the Israelis bo b their Nuclear facilities, it will get them their Jihad.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

Follow the money. Look who has funded Trump for the past few years.

[Dutch Uncle]

IMHO Trump is for once in a tight spot - he doesn't want a war right now as his electioneering gathers pace (firing Bolton is a sign of that), but his paymasters Saudi and Israel and UAE do, and could threaten to spill the beans of their pre 2016 election pacts.

As always Seth Abramson is very interesting to follow.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Spot on Dutch.

These comments about Trump being a businessman irk me.

He's not and he never has been, not in the conventional sense. He ran his property companies so badly that he couldn't get a loan in America and was bailed out by Russian gangster money filtered through Deutsche Bank.

What he's done since then is on a different scale. He's used his position as President to sell US foreign policy to the dictators in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As you say, he's in a hell of a bind now.

He goes to war: he loses in the 2020 Election and then he's lost the protection against prosecution that Office gives him.

He doesn't go to war: he can be played like a fiddle by the Middle Eastern dictators, who can finish him off with the right documents passed to the right journalists or Senators/Congressmen/women.

[bahrain rover]

Its very worrying for us here. The attack at Abquaq is only 40 minutes drive from my house and its where I go for training, as I work for the company effected. I was in the Philippines at the time, and seriously considered leaving my wife and son back there for awhile longer, but she was having non of it.

[Ldr]

Stay safe mate

[GazLaz]

This may be a silly question but why are the US leading the way with the Saudi attack investigation? Why are they so involved so quickly?

[Nudga]

This may be a silly question but why are the US leading the way with the Saudi attack investigation? Why are they so involved so quickly?

To make sure their shady covert ops don't become public knowledge.
To pull the strings of other countries to fight their proxy wars.
The world is a stage.

[Dutch Uncle]

This may be a silly question but why are the US leading the way with the Saudi attack investigation? Why are they so involved so quickly?

To make sure their shady covert ops don't become public knowledge.
To pull the strings of other countries to fight their proxy wars.
The world is a stage.

I think it is more basic than that Nudga

Saudi/UAE/Israel made pre election pacts with Trump - giving anything from $$$ to approval for building hotels and golf courses. In exchange, if elected, Trump was to side with those countries against Iran, starting by withdrawing  from the working JCPOA agreement. Then it was moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Then it was turning a blind eye to the Saudis murdering Kashoggi in one of their embassies. Now they want war with Iran and they want the US to fulfil their part of the bargain.

Trouble is Trump doesn't actually want a war right now - just as he is electioneering including bring soldiers back from unwinnabke wars in the middle east and Afghanistan, and trying to appease the Taliban.

Follow Seth Abramson to find out more. What he has put together from open sources is nothing short of incredible.