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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 426027 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10950 on May 13, 2021, 08:31:28 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Hound.

I'm looking away from the specific and to the overall national picture. Look at that graph I posted. Yes, COVID has had an effect but it's barely a blip on the decade long trend that this shower has presided over.

Hancock wants you to think that the NHS's problems are primarily due to COVID and that he will battle on your behalf to overcome them. Whereas in reality they are due to the real terms spending cuts which are in turn due to the f**king Austerity that he championed.

You choose if you want to be misled by his current words. Me, I see the sort of politician that makes my blood boil.



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River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10951 on May 13, 2021, 08:41:17 pm by River Don »
Latest news, cases of the Indian varient have more than doubled in the last week.

I'm not convinced local lockdowns work. I think they are just going to have to bite the bullet and delay reopening. To do otherwise is really taking a huge gamble that risks jeopardising the vaccination program.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10952 on May 13, 2021, 09:06:30 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Hound.

I'm looking away from the specific and to the overall national picture. Look at that graph I posted. Yes, COVID has had an effect but it's barely a blip on the decade long trend that this shower has presided over.

Hancock wants you to think that the NHS's problems are primarily due to COVID and that he will battle on your behalf to overcome them. Whereas in reality they are due to the real terms spending cuts which are in turn due to the f**king Austerity that he championed.

You choose if you want to be misled by his current words. Me, I see the sort of politician that makes my blood boil.

 You said the NHS waiting list problems have absolutely NOT been caused by COVID. Of course they bloody have!

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10953 on May 13, 2021, 09:30:52 pm by drfchound »
Hound.

I'm looking away from the specific and to the overall national picture. Look at that graph I posted. Yes, COVID has had an effect but it's barely a blip on the decade long trend that this shower has presided over.

Hancock wants you to think that the NHS's problems are primarily due to COVID and that he will battle on your behalf to overcome them. Whereas in reality they are due to the real terms spending cuts which are in turn due to the f**king Austerity that he championed.

You choose if you want to be misled by his current words. Me, I see the sort of politician that makes my blood boil.






Me, I believe that the COVID situation has had an impact on hospital waiting lists but then I don’t have a built in hatred of politicians.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10954 on May 13, 2021, 09:43:45 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The pair of you. Have a look at that graph, then get back to me.

Or if you can't be arsed, I'll point out the salient fact. That graph says waiting lists are EXACTLY where you'd expect them to be given the decade long trend under the Tories. Twice as many people waiting for operations as there were when this shower took over.

They WANT you to think the NHS problems are due to COVID. Look at that graph. They are not.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10955 on May 13, 2021, 09:50:37 pm by Bentley Bullet »
I'm not saying that all the NHS problems were due to COVID. There were problems with the NHS before COVID, but to say NHS waiting list problems have absolutely NOT been caused by COVID is downright ludicrous.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10956 on May 13, 2021, 09:55:08 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The pair of you. Have a look at that graph, then get back to me.

Or if you can't be arsed, I'll point out the salient fact. That graph says waiting lists are EXACTLY where you'd expect them to be given the decade long trend under the Tories. Twice as many people waiting for operations as there were when this shower took over.

They WANT you to think the NHS problems are due to COVID. Look at that graph. They are not.

The question is why. More funding, more staff. Why then are waiting lists higher?

On a side note got an appointment through for my 3 year old. She has to wear a face mask. That feels a bit extreme.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10957 on May 13, 2021, 11:04:41 pm by SydneyRover »
Just back from the graph, waiting list almost doubled in 10 years

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10958 on May 13, 2021, 11:35:25 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP
Waiting lists have gone up under the Tories because the funding has not anywhere near gone up with demand. It's a worldwide feature that as population age increases and expectations increase, you have to increase health funding in real terms just to stand still. Our spending as a % of GDP has flatlined for the past decade while most comparable countries have increased theirs. That's the core reason why our waiting lists have doubled to 4million in a decade.

Of course COVID has exacerbated that, but as that graph shows COVID has had a minimal effect on the trend.

An honest politician would address the root cause. Hancock has been a central reason for the root causes. But a dishonest politician like him will of course try to fool people by deflecting the blame. Looks like he's succeeding in that given some of the responses in here.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10959 on May 14, 2021, 12:11:38 am by SydneyRover »
Approximation

Graph shows increase of 2m over 10 years =200K or 10%

Add 10 % or 200K to blown out wait list = 2.2m representing 1 year of covid

Wait list increase 10%

Added

If you take the increase as part of the whole waiting list then it represents an increase of around 5%.

So taking into account errors and that I am not an actuary, around 95% of the current waiting list is not due to covid

Or doubling any errors it's still 90% of the current waiting list is not due to covid.

« Last Edit: May 14, 2021, 03:18:04 am by SydneyRover »

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10960 on May 14, 2021, 07:31:54 am by drfchound »
BFYP
Waiting lists have gone up under the Tories because the funding has not anywhere near gone up with demand. It's a worldwide feature that as population age increases and expectations increase, you have to increase health funding in real terms just to stand still. Our spending as a % of GDP has flatlined for the past decade while most comparable countries have increased theirs. That's the core reason why our waiting lists have doubled to 4million in a decade.

Of course COVID has exacerbated that, but as that graph shows COVID has had a minimal effect on the trend.

An honest politician would address the root cause. Hancock has been a central reason for the root causes. But a dishonest politician like him will of course try to fool people by deflecting the blame. Looks like he's succeeding in that given some of the responses in here.






Based on that, Hancock must have indoctrinated people within the NHS because they, from the front line, are telling patients that they are behind with appointments because of COVID.
I sometimes think that if Hancock pointed to a red car and told you it was red, you would call him a liar.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10961 on May 14, 2021, 08:00:07 am by Filo »
BFYP
Waiting lists have gone up under the Tories because the funding has not anywhere near gone up with demand. It's a worldwide feature that as population age increases and expectations increase, you have to increase health funding in real terms just to stand still. Our spending as a % of GDP has flatlined for the past decade while most comparable countries have increased theirs. That's the core reason why our waiting lists have doubled to 4million in a decade.

Of course COVID has exacerbated that, but as that graph shows COVID has had a minimal effect on the trend.

An honest politician would address the root cause. Hancock has been a central reason for the root causes. But a dishonest politician like him will of course try to fool people by deflecting the blame. Looks like he's succeeding in that given some of the responses in here.






Based on that, Hancock must have indoctrinated people within the NHS because they, from the front line, are telling patients that they are behind with appointments because of COVID.
I sometimes think that if Hancock pointed to a red car and told you it was red, you would call him a liar.

I’d certainly compare it with a colour chart just to check

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10962 on May 14, 2021, 08:01:48 am by drfchound »
BFYP
Waiting lists have gone up under the Tories because the funding has not anywhere near gone up with demand. It's a worldwide feature that as population age increases and expectations increase, you have to increase health funding in real terms just to stand still. Our spending as a % of GDP has flatlined for the past decade while most comparable countries have increased theirs. That's the core reason why our waiting lists have doubled to 4million in a decade.

Of course COVID has exacerbated that, but as that graph shows COVID has had a minimal effect on the trend.

An honest politician would address the root cause. Hancock has been a central reason for the root causes. But a dishonest politician like him will of course try to fool people by deflecting the blame. Looks like he's succeeding in that given some of the responses in here.






Based on that, Hancock must have indoctrinated people within the NHS because they, from the front line, are telling patients that they are behind with appointments because of COVID.
I sometimes think that if Hancock pointed to a red car and told you it was red, you would call him a liar.

I’d certainly compare it with a colour chart just to check





Yes, you might, BST probably wouldn’t.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10963 on May 14, 2021, 08:04:31 am by wilts rover »
Only just catching up so are you saying what Hancock said is true hound? NHS waiting times are due to covid and only covid?

And there isn't for instance a 'policy' to deny certain treatments to certain patients so they either do without or go private?

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/terrifying-truth-about-those-deciding-future-nhs/

I often think that if Hancock (who told the media a member of his team had been punched by a Labour activist when there was an actual video showing him walking into a bloke waving his arms about) or any other Tory politician told you a red car was blue you would swear it was blue.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10964 on May 14, 2021, 08:06:22 am by SydneyRover »
NHS performance and waiting times

Priorities for the new government

22 November 2019
About 8 mins to read .............. to long for those that can't handle the truth?

NHS cancer waiting times in 2018/19 the worst since targets were setHealth Foundation response to NHS monthly performance statistics

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/nhs-performance-and-waiting-times

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10965 on May 14, 2021, 08:12:54 am by drfchound »
Only just catching up so are you saying what Hancock said is true hound? NHS waiting times are due to covid and only covid?

And there isn't for instance a 'policy' to deny certain treatments to certain patients so they either do without or go private?

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/terrifying-truth-about-those-deciding-future-nhs/

I often think that if Hancock (who told the media a member of his team had been punched by a Labour activist when there was an actual video showing him walking into a bloke waving his arms about) or any other Tory politician told you a red car was blue you would swear it was blue.





Quick reply wilts as I am going out to play golf.
I haven’t said that waiting times are due to COVID only, you have suggested that I have.
Regards to second paragraph, I’m not sure what you are getting at there.
Regarding the colour thing, i was referring to BSTs hatred of Hancock which doesn’t apply to me because I don’t have a built in hatred of him or any other politician irrespective of Party.

I am out now for quite a while so don’t you or anyone else posting cryptic messages think I am dodging when I don’t respond immediately.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2021, 02:33:36 pm by drfchound »

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10966 on May 14, 2021, 08:15:09 am by SydneyRover »
Regards to Gary

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10967 on May 14, 2021, 08:18:54 am by wilts rover »
Only just catching up so are you saying what Hancock said is true hound? NHS waiting times are due to covid and only covid?

And there isn't for instance a 'policy' to deny certain treatments to certain patients so they either do without or go private?

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/terrifying-truth-about-those-deciding-future-nhs/

I often think that if Hancock (who told the media a member of his team had been punched by a Labour activist when there was an actual video showing him walking into a bloke waving his arms about) or any other Tory politician told you a red car was blue you would swear it was blue.





Quick reply wilts as I am going out to play golf.
I haven’t said that waiting times are due to COVID only, you have suggested that hat I have.
Regards to second paragraph, I’m not sure what you are getting at there.
Regarding the colour thing, i was referring to BSTs hatred of Hancock which doesn’t apply to me because I don’t have a built in hatred of him or any other politician irrespective of Party.

I am out now for quite a while so don’t you or anyone else posting cryptic messages think I am dodging when I don’t respond immediately.

No problem hound, have a good day, take your brolly its slinging it down here.

If you have time read the article in the link and you will see exactly what I am getting at in that second para.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10968 on May 14, 2021, 10:33:35 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I've realised what the misunderstanding is here.

Of course COVID is affecting waiting times. But it's had no noticeable effect as yet on the numbers on waiting lists. It was precisely Hancock talking about LISTS and conveniently ignoring the effect that the Austerity (that he championed) has had on that which got my blood boiling.
 

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10969 on May 14, 2021, 11:05:18 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
BST I'm struggling with your points here.  There must be more to it than just funding.

You said funding has to increase above inflation (real term NHS budget has continued to increase every year hasn't it?)

So given it has increased why has the value gone up so much? It's either...

The funding despite going up hasn't gone up enough.

Covid

Other inefficiencies or serious health problems in the population.

A combination of them all.

It's an interesting point. It's stated we don't fund services enough, we don't pay staff enough and don't spend on new facilities.  Just how much should the country spend and how much should the budget increase?

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10970 on May 14, 2021, 11:17:54 am by SydneyRover »
The information is all out there pud by the shed load

''The NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. Since 2010, its budget has increased only marginally in real terms. While this is generous compared to other areas of public spending, many NHS organisations are already overspending. Increasing demand for care means that, without a significant increase in the NHS budget, a funding gap will open''

''Why is this happening? Since 2010, the NHS has had an unprecedented funding squeeze. Over the period between 2010/11 and 2015/16, the NHS budget will have increased by £6 billion in real terms – an average of 0.9 per cent a year. This is significantly lower than the long-term average increase in NHS spending which is 4 per cent''

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/verdict/how-much-money-does-nhs-need

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10971 on May 14, 2021, 01:33:39 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP

Lay out the facts and draw your conclusions.

From 2001-2010, average spending on the NHS grew by about about 7% per year in real terms. Form 2010-2020, it grew by about 1.5% per year in real terms.

The number of people waiting for an operation was cut by much more than 50% between 2001-10 (I only have figures from 2007, but the number waiting fell by 50% between 2007 and 2010 and it was already falling steeply at 2007).

Since 2010, when Austeruty led to massive cuts in the rate of increase of NHS budget, waiting lists have doubled, back to their mid-2005 level. And COVID has had very little effect on that.

It's about a clear a case of cause and effect as you can get. And it is why I expressed my contempt for Hancock. He is one of the primary reasons why we had Austerity stupidly foisted on the economy. Because he was Osborne's economics special adviser at the time that Austerity was being drawn up. And it was never ever about the economics. It was a cynical strategy to win an election. HE is responsible for the NHS waiting lists. And now he is trying to blame it on COVID.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10972 on May 14, 2021, 01:40:57 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
PS. Thise waiting list numbers come from the Kings Fund which.

PPS. The consequence of the reduction in funding increases for the NHS is stark. We are now spending about 3% of GDP less on health that Germany and France. That's about £60bn per year. I'll give you a little anecdote of what that means in practice. I have a business contact who is French but based in the UK. His wife was diagnosed with cancer. The NHS oncologist said they couldn't treat it and recommended palliative care. They didn't accept that. They went to a French specialist who told them it was a pretty routine job to operate on the cancer and the survival chances were >75%. They have left Britain and moved back to France. Not only is that an utter outrage on a human level, it has also cost the UK a brilliant technical businessman. THAT is what Austerity has done and it is why I truly f**king despise Hancock.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10973 on May 14, 2021, 02:29:05 pm by River Don »
4 dead from the Indian varient.

Experts urging Johnson not to reopen on Monday.

Johnson speaks to the nation at 5. I wonder if he will take their advice?

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10974 on May 14, 2021, 05:15:14 pm by Ldr »
4 dead from the Indian varient.

Experts urging Johnson not to reopen on Monday.

Johnson speaks to the nation at 5. I wonder if he will take their advice?

I certainly hope he doesnt

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10975 on May 14, 2021, 05:55:28 pm by drfchound »
From my weekly email from DMBC.
Posted for the benefit of people outside of our area.

Latest local infection rates continue to fall slowly.
Currently 47.5 for the first week in May.
Our positivity rate is 2% which is the lowest for sometime.
Hospital admissions rates remain low.

However there are worrying infection rates in some young age groups, notably 10-14 and 20-24.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10976 on May 14, 2021, 06:35:29 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
BST but it went up to 2007 right? Where it was a higher proportion of the population than it is now waiting a long time?

My points still stand, how much do we increase funding and what is it being spent on?   What exactly needs to be done to reduce these things? More staff, more hospitals? More pay?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10977 on May 14, 2021, 07:21:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP.
I didn't say it went up, up to 2007. I said 2007 was the earliest data in the King's Fund report I saw.

I've since found a report with earlier data. See Fig 1 on page 14 here.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/sites/files/kf/High-Performing-NHS-progress-review-1997-2010-Ruth-Thorlby-Jo-Maybin-Kings-Fund-April-2010.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjU8f-A5MnwAhWF0eAKHcdDAWAQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw0xkbZb6Xlh_FVZ3r0B0fZA

In case you can't open it, it says waiting list numbers fell consistently from 1998.

That's only looking at waiting lists for in patients (previous data I've posted was for in and out patients) but the story screams out.

Labour came to power in 1997 and significantly increased NHS spending. Waiting lists vastly reduced.

Tories came to power in 2010 and throttled back NHS spending increases. Waiting list numbers doubled.

It is such a blindingly obvious cause and effect I don't understand anyone arguing the toss.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2021, 08:12:55 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10978 on May 14, 2021, 07:53:24 pm by bpoolrover »
So from today’s briefing I think June the 21st not much will change from now,probably the right thing to do, open things and follow the data if hospitalisations and deaths stay low go from there

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10979 on May 14, 2021, 08:23:30 pm by albie »
Bozo was giving notice of a big change coming, Blackpool.

With Sage saying the Indian variant is up to 50% more infectious, it will become the main strain by June.

Bozo is repeating the same error he always makes, delay action until it is too late. It seems to be hard wired into his make up, it is like his is immune to numbers.

Here is a proper explanation from Ch 4 news tonight;
https://www.channel4.com/news/why-are-we-taking-a-gamble-with-peoples-lives-epidemiologist-dr-deepti-gurdasani

We have no competence among the political decision makers.

 

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