Coronavirus

[bpoolrover]

But as a opposition if they thought it was a good idea you would think they would have said as they have not they probably don’t would you not agree?

[River Don]

Alright BP forget the travel restrictions, that horse has already gone.

If we open up on Monday, and for arguments sake let's say the Indian varient is as actually 50% more transmissible.

What do you think is going to happen?

[bpoolrover]

More people will get it if the vaccine works like the guy who you quoted predicted the deaths should not go up that much

[River Don]

More people will get it if the vaccine works like the guy who you quoted predicted the deaths should not go up that much

There we have it.

That is a complete misunderstanding of the likely effect and what the modeling suggests.

[bpoolrover]

What does it suggest?

[bpoolrover]

There will be more deaths of course but at some point we will have to accept that, what the level is I don’t no

[SydneyRover]

More people will get it if the vaccine works like the guy who you quoted predicted the deaths should not go up that much

This sounds very 'cummings' to me bp

[bpoolrover]

More people will get it if the vaccine works like the guy who you quoted predicted the deaths should not go up that much

This sounds very 'cummings' to me bp

in what way? Unless you get rid of this virus completely people will die it’s a sad fact

[River Don]

If its 50% more transmissible it's going to rip through the unvaccinated population.

It will start out slow and then go very fast. We won't notice at first because of the delay between infection and falling ill and hospitalisation.

Because it's mainly the young many will just be sick for a while. But because the numbers would be so great, all those who are more vulnerable will be at far greater risk and many will start rolling up at hospital.

And when the hospitals reach capacity care levels will fall. And then the deaths will rise.

All this for the sake of waiting a couple of weeks to find out what's going on. Can you explain why you would risk this?

[bpoolrover]

I might agree with your point more if you said wait till everyone has been vaccinated till we open up but to wait 2 weeks will make no difference as this variant and possibly others will still be around so in 2 weeks you will say we have to wait another 2 weeks and so on, do you think the public would accept that?

[River Don]

I might agree with your point more if you said wait till everyone has been vaccinated till we open up but to wait 2 weeks will make no difference as this variant and possibly others will still be around so in 2 weeks you will say we have to wait another 2 weeks and so on, do you think the public would accept that?

If we wait just two weeks, those who were getting vaccinated in the last couple of weeks will be developing immunity. Those who are getting vaccinated now will be much closer to some immunity.

And we might know if the Indian varient really is that bad. It might not be. We might find it is much less virulent, in which case panic off and we can go down the pub. Staying at a safe distance and all the rest of it.

[SydneyRover]

More people will get it if the vaccine works like the guy who you quoted predicted the deaths should not go up that much

This sounds very 'cummings' to me bp
[/quote]in what way? Unless you get rid of this virus completely people will die it’s a sad fact

I guess you answered you're own question right there bp

[bpoolrover]

Do you not agree Sydney?

[River Don]

I should add, if in two weeks we found it was that bad.

Then we would have to lockdown and get everyone vaccinated as fast as possible.

[bpoolrover]

What if in 2 weeks it is the same as now would you open up or would you say we needed more time to see what happens? If it spreads like your predicting it might we probably won’t no the results regarding deaths for many weeks yet

[River Don]

In two weeks it will not be the same as now.

Even if science hasn't got a definitive figure for transmission, it will be a lot closer and be able to make a better guess. There will be more real data. We will have had two weeks experience to see how fast infections are growing in the UK.

The way forward will be much more clear, if new infections stay low and science says transmission is probably low, then risk opening up some more and keep an eye on it.

If it keeps doubling and trebling every week and there are new hotspots and science says we don't know yet but it looks bad. Lockdown down again and keep vaccinating.

[SydneyRover]

Do you not agree Sydney?

Oh sorry my shoelace has become loose, have to go

[SydneyRover]

More lefty nonsense from those ............. recording history as it happened.

''The UK’s high death toll is the result of a dangerously late lockdown, and an administration that was slow to grasp the seriousness of the pandemic.

In the early days of the pandemic, most countries had begun their lockdown process – the UK Prime Minister, however, reportedly missed five Cobra meetings. Almost five weeks after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the UK, Boris Johnson announced: “It’s very important that people consider that they should, as far as possible, go about business as usual.”

It wasn’t until 285 people had passed away that Johnson decided to lock down the country. And, not only was the lockdown late, but it was considerably lax – travel restrictions in and out of the country weren’t even imposed until June!''

''And who could forget about the trainwreck of clumsy mistakes from the UK government? Ministers allowed 25,060 patients to be discharged from NHS hospitals to care homes without being tested for COVID-19, chose to abandon contact tracing at the height of the pandemic in March, and failed to provide adequate protective equipment for front-line workers.

Fast forward to September, and the UK’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme backfired massively, with some experts believing that it triggered the country’s second wave. Boris Johnson was also widely criticised for telling parents that it was safe to send children to school on 4 January 2021, despite announcing the closure of these schools only hours later.

Although the UK now has a strong vaccine programme, the main concerns for Brits are the new variants floating about, which are said to have come from South Africa and Brazil.

Looks like Boris’s tactic to “take it on the chin” and “let the virus move through the public” didn’t work so well after all''

https://www.movehub.com/blog/best-and-worst-covid-responses/

[River Don]

Hancock on Marr filled me with confidence. Not.

What came from that was, they don't know how transmissible the Indian Varient is yet.

The vacinne works against the varient but not as effectively. They have five people in hospital in Bolton with it, who have had a jab.
They have one frail person in hospital who was fully immunised.

Their big strategy is rolling out vacinne but he wasn't asked about the delay in becoming immune.

They are chucking lots of testing at it in Bolton. (We know it's already gone far beyond Bolton) and he admits it's on it's way to becoming dominant in the country.

And he wants us all to use common sense and take care... Which essentially seems to mean, don't use the new freedoms yet anyway. So why not just say, we can't open up yet until we know more?

And it seems Labour are backing this and were much more keen to talk about not locking the border down sooner.

Fingers crossed, it's not as bad as feared then.

[SydneyRover]

''Fingers crossed'' stealing the governments modus operandi RD?

[drfchound]

Hancock on Marr filled me with confidence. Not.

What came from that was, they don't know how transmissible the Indian Varient is yet.

The vacinne works against the varient but not as effectively. They have five people in hospital in Bolton with it, who have had a jab.
They have one frail person in hospital who was fully immunised.

Their big strategy is rolling out vacinne but he wasn't asked about the delay in becoming immune.

They are chucking lots of testing at it in Bolton. (We know it's already gone far beyond Bolton) and he admits it's on it's way to becoming dominant in the country.

And he wants us all to use common sense and take care... Which essentially seems to mean, don't use the new freedoms yet anyway. So why not just say, we can't open up yet until we know more?

And it seems Labour are backing this and were much more keen to talk about not locking the border down sooner.

Fingers crossed, it's not as bad as feared then.

Genuine question RD.
Would you have been as easy on the government about this if Labour hadn’t have backed the decision not to close down.

[SydneyRover]

Does this means all the quillions of question you asked were not genuine hound?

[belton rover]

Does this means all the quillions of question you asked were not genuine hound?

I suspect it was in the hope that you wouldn’t ambush the question in your usual immature manner.
Ah well, he tried.

[SydneyRover]

Don't beat yourself up about it belton

[River Don]

Hancock on Marr filled me with confidence. Not.

What came from that was, they don't know how transmissible the Indian Varient is yet.

The vacinne works against the varient but not as effectively. They have five people in hospital in Bolton with it, who have had a jab.
They have one frail person in hospital who was fully immunised.

Their big strategy is rolling out vacinne but he wasn't asked about the delay in becoming immune.

They are chucking lots of testing at it in Bolton. (We know it's already gone far beyond Bolton) and he admits it's on it's way to becoming dominant in the country.

And he wants us all to use common sense and take care... Which essentially seems to mean, don't use the new freedoms yet anyway. So why not just say, we can't open up yet until we know more?

And it seems Labour are backing this and were much more keen to talk about not locking the border down sooner.

Fingers crossed, it's not as bad as feared then.

Genuine question RD.
Would you have been as easy on the government about this if Labour hadn’t have backed the decision not to close down.

I don't think this thing is particularly political because there is no trade off between health needs and the economy. We need to be healthy for the economy to work.

With this virus action always has to be swift. So if anything new crops up act first ask quaestions later.

That's the same with the border or new varient sor anything. For the record when this thing first emerged in China, I was saying close down travel from China straight away.

[Nudga]

So the new varient has only been found in those who've been vaccinated?

[SydneyRover]

36 million or so have had at least one jab, the vaccines don't stop everyone getting the virus Nudga but it helps reduce the damage it does and reduces the viral load so it's not so easy to pass on.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Sydney your article does miss some thinfs out doesn't it.

The UK government was criticised for opting out of the EU procurement scheme - correct decision.

The scientists were criticised for a 12 week vaccine gap - right decision.

We can't just pick out the bits that go right or wrong.

On the current position, given the Variant is no more dangerous in its effect and the vulnerable are vaccinated at least once, opening up further is the right thing to do.  If the effect of contracting the virus is muxh less then we have to live with cases. Otherwise we will never again hug our family, watch a football game or visit a restaurant.  It's always been about balance and we need that balance.

Even the countries who took a tough approach eg new Zealand have to decide if they are closing their borders forever or not.

Good article on that below.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/new-zealand-reopening-options-covid-closed-borders

[SydneyRover]

The article was specifically looking at the best and the worst performing countries and gave reasons, are the reason they gave to mark the uk down incorrect?

Added, I was just using the article as a convenient list that someone had already typed out to to counter the stream of revisionism trying to claim black is white by trying to claim the government has handled the crisis well and that no one else could do better.

I don't really care about the rankings they gave as it's a bit subjective, but anyone can look at the world coronavirus list to see that it's pretty accurate on a per capita basis

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think we've done it to death tbh, time to look forward.