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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 377549 times)

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big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12960 on July 23, 2021, 10:13:15 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

School, universities, more people in workplaces seems an obvious thing in September plus poorer weather.  Essentially the uni term "Freshers flu" effect that happens every year.  Right now universities, schools all closed and many not in offices etc.



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Axholme Lion

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  • Posts: 1867
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12961 on July 23, 2021, 10:23:09 am by Axholme Lion »
When you say certificate do you mean the card they gave you when you had your jabs?

If you call 119 with your NHS number they send you a proof of vaccination certificate.

Axholme Lion

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  • Posts: 1867
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12962 on July 23, 2021, 10:24:37 am by Axholme Lion »
When you say certificate do you mean the card they gave you when you had your jabs?

I think he means he's been certified..... :lol:

 :lol: :lol: :lol:

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12963 on July 23, 2021, 10:27:59 am by BillyStubbsTears »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

School, universities, more people in workplaces seems an obvious thing in September plus poorer weather.  Essentially the uni term "Freshers flu" effect that happens every year.  Right now universities, schools all closed and many not in offices etc.

Against which, 2 months to get more jabs in arms.

It just seems very odd that the only scenarios the modellers' were asked to consider were opening now or opening at Xmas. With the consequence being that we have little idea what the effect of an intermediate action would have been.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12964 on July 23, 2021, 12:42:10 pm by dickos1 »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

I didn’t say it would be riskier!
But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions.
Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early.
It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12965 on July 23, 2021, 12:59:20 pm by SydneyRover »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

I didn’t say it would be riskier!
But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions.
Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early.
It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 27809
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12966 on July 23, 2021, 01:08:55 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

I didn’t say it would be riskier!
But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions.
Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early.
It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do

Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."

I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.

no eyed deer

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  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12967 on July 23, 2021, 01:58:41 pm by no eyed deer »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?





Hindsight will tell us.

And some people will excuse the government's actions whatever they turn out to be. A government that has droppd all restrictions whilst a pandemic is raging through its population - unlike every other country in the world and against WHO and apparently its own scientific advise.

The more people who have the disease the more disruption it will cause the health service and the economy.
Only 55% of the population (70% of all adults) have had two jabs.
Vaccines are not 100% effective and recent data shows there is a link between the more vulnerable you are - the less chance of the vaccine working.
2 million people received a shielding letter.
The more covid there is around, the more chance of a new, vaccine resistant varient emerging.

None of that is hindsight. It's all plain sight.

And let's hope they dont implement another lockdown

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12968 on July 23, 2021, 04:31:14 pm by bpoolrover »
36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths

dickos1

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  • Posts: 14261
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12969 on July 23, 2021, 04:35:07 pm by dickos1 »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

I didn’t say it would be riskier!
But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions.
Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early.
It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do

Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."

I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.

I never mentioned last summer,
Last sept/October, the government were getting slated for not waiting until October half term to relax restrictions, Northern Ireland waited but we relaxed earlier.
Turned out Northern Ireland re-opened after half term for a week before being forced to lock down again.

As for waiting now and relaxing in the autumn/winter, then this is one of the things scientists seem to agree on,
Virus’s become much more dominant in the colder weather, we saw that last year, from Having very few cases in the summer they went crazy once the weather turned throw into the mix that flu is expected to go through the roof this winter and also the fact schools will be starting back up it’s a certain recipe for disaster.
And a sensible man such as yourself would realise this if you weren’t just obsessed with criticising anything the tories say or do.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12970 on July 23, 2021, 04:36:25 pm by dickos1 »
36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths

Could we have reached the peak already?
Deaths will always go up for a bit now as there’s a lag, but if cases are going down then the scenario is much better than even the government suggested

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 27809
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12971 on July 23, 2021, 05:05:09 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

I didn’t say it would be riskier!
But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions.
Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early.
It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do

Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."

I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.

I never mentioned last summer,
Last sept/October, the government were getting slated for not waiting until October half term to relax restrictions, Northern Ireland waited but we relaxed earlier.
Turned out Northern Ireland re-opened after half term for a week before being forced to lock down again.

As for waiting now and relaxing in the autumn/winter, then this is one of the things scientists seem to agree on,
Virus’s become much more dominant in the colder weather, we saw that last year, from Having very few cases in the summer they went crazy once the weather turned throw into the mix that flu is expected to go through the roof this winter and also the fact schools will be starting back up it’s a certain recipe for disaster.
And a sensible man such as yourself would realise this if you weren’t just obsessed with criticising anything the tories say or do.

Dickos. That was not at all what happened last Autumn.

The criticism was that the Govt didn't take advantage of the October half term to IMPOSE new restrictions, not release them.

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 27809
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12972 on July 23, 2021, 05:13:12 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths

Could we have reached the peak already?
Deaths will always go up for a bit now as there’s a lag, but if cases are going down then the scenario is much better than even the government suggested

There is certainly a down turn but that is absolutely NOT the sort of effect you expect to see in the trends when you reach Herd Immunity. That is a long, slow turn, not a sudden, abrupt one.

It looks nailed on that the reduction in cases is due to the school holiday. There's also been big drop in PCR tests conducted in the past few days. Tues-Thurs this week the number of tests conducted is down about 15% on last week. I'm guessing the drop in new cases is partly down to fewer kids catching the virus and partly just down to fewer of them being tested.

Two big questions are:

1) What is the spread like in adults who are the ones who make up the vulnerable population? If fewer kids are getting the virus, will that slow down the spread among adults.
2) What will the unlocking effect be. We won't really see that until this time next week when new cases (if any) will be coming through into the numbers.

My hunch would be that new infection numbers stay around this level for a few days then start to rise sharply again.

scawsby steve

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  • Posts: 4532
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12973 on July 23, 2021, 05:57:51 pm by scawsby steve »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?





Hindsight will tell us.

And some people will excuse the government's actions whatever they turn out to be. A government that has droppd all restrictions whilst a pandemic is raging through its population - unlike every other country in the world and against WHO and apparently its own scientific advise.

The more people who have the disease the more disruption it will cause the health service and the economy.
Only 55% of the population (70% of all adults) have had two jabs.
Vaccines are not 100% effective and recent data shows there is a link between the more vulnerable you are - the less chance of the vaccine working.
2 million people received a shielding letter.
The more covid there is around, the more chance of a new, vaccine resistant varient emerging.

None of that is hindsight. It's all plain sight.

Wilts, I'll ask you again, because you didn't answer the first time. What do you want us to do? This virus is never going to go away, because the vaccines aren't good enough. So do you want us to live with restrictions forever?

Should we all stay away from the Keepmoat in 2 weeks time?

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 27809
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12974 on July 23, 2021, 06:01:51 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
SS

The vaccines are superb. I posted a couple of days ago an analysis that indicates that the vaccines reduce your chance of serious symptoms by over 90%.

The problem is not the vaccines. It's the fact that we haven't got enough of them in enough arms to be able to reach Herd Immunity without a big wave infecting some of the vaccinated people and pretty much all of the unvaccinated ones.

River Don

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  • Posts: 5953
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12975 on July 23, 2021, 06:07:31 pm by River Don »
36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths

Could we have reached the peak already?
Deaths will always go up for a bit now as there’s a lag, but if cases are going down then the scenario is much better than even the government suggested

Down 16,000 on a week ago. A big fall, it's looking positive.

I think we'll know next week if we're on the downslope. This is the first full open weekend after freedom day. I expect their might be a lot of mixing indoors, pubs and clubs fully open.

That will probably show up in the figures next Wed /Thu/Fri. If the figures aren't going up much then, we can start feeling optimistic.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12976 on July 23, 2021, 06:18:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
RD.

The only way this wave is going to stop is when we have HI.

As I say, this really isn't the sort of turn round you'd expect with HI. That would be a long, slow flattening of the infection curve over several weeks. The sudden sharp flip we've just had is what you get when something in the way society interacts changes drastically. The only thing that makes sense is schools closing. I'll be amazed if cases aren't climbing steeply again next week.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12977 on July 23, 2021, 06:24:23 pm by River Don »
Yep I get that BST.

I heard a virologist on Radio 5 Live saying she thought the large numbers last weekend were a result of the football. Now the football is over, the numbers are slipping back.

So I'm thinking watch the numbers over the coming couple of weeks, to get a better impression of how its progressing and what difference opening up has made.

Schools in York only finished today, is that later than most?

Also. The Mirror was reporting this morning a new UK varient of concern has been identified. Not much known about it yet, still very, very low numbers.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2021, 06:29:58 pm by River Don »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12978 on July 23, 2021, 06:56:26 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Schools in Sheffield finished last Friday.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12979 on July 23, 2021, 06:58:56 pm by drfchound »
My eldest grandson is at school in North Notts and they finish next Wednesday.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12980 on July 23, 2021, 07:01:51 pm by River Don »
Schools in Sheffield finished last Friday.

A quick Google suggests most schools in the UK finish today but it is staggered. Scotland finished a month earlier.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12981 on July 23, 2021, 07:18:53 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I've heard anecdotally of several families keeping kids off school for the last few days before the official closure to make sure the kids didn't cop a dose and bugger up holidays.

turnbull for england

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12982 on July 23, 2021, 08:20:54 pm by turnbull for england »
Our school gave up  for the last week and half and did home lessons

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12983 on July 23, 2021, 11:03:53 pm by dickos1 »
After all restrictions were relaxed on Monday,  people on here were adamant we would see cases rocket this week.
The opposite seems to be happening, be interesting to see if it continues over the next couple of weeks

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12984 on July 23, 2021, 11:05:23 pm by bpoolrover »
They will defo go up as more people are mixing, at the same time more are getting jabbed and I don't think some of the predictions will be as bad as people think but that's just a guess

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12985 on July 23, 2021, 11:16:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
After all restrictions were relaxed on Monday,  people on here were adamant we would see cases rocket this week.
The opposite seems to be happening, be interesting to see if it continues over the next couple of weeks


Dickos.
Nobody was saying the relaxing would cause cases to rocket this soon.

The results posted today were registered over Weds pm and Thurs am. Some of the tests would have been taken on Monday and Tuesday. It is simply too early to see any effect of the relaxing of the rules.

Like you say, look at it in 10-14 days time and see where we are.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12986 on July 24, 2021, 05:30:37 am by SydneyRover »
Luke, interviewed from his hospital bed in England had decided against having a jab but caught the virus celebrating the Euros in the pub with his mates .................... he said when he gets out of hospital he will get a jab.

no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12987 on July 24, 2021, 09:19:00 am by no eyed deer »
I've heard anecdotally of several families keeping kids off school for the last few days before the official closure to make sure the kids didn't cop a dose and bugger up holidays.


And me being one of those. Didnt even go out to watch the final.

First holiday since last January and unlike some not a day off on furlough.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12988 on July 24, 2021, 01:48:57 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304

It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12989 on July 24, 2021, 04:53:08 pm by bpoolrover »
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304

It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.
just do what that Keith baggs suggests people do on that Twitter link and delete the app lol

 

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