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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 377590 times)

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River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13020 on July 25, 2021, 11:13:20 am by River Don »
I don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.

Read the quote from billy

WHEN not if we reach 100,000 cases a day by the end of July

That's his conviction not a fact.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2021, 11:15:58 am by River Don »



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dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13021 on July 25, 2021, 11:15:29 am by dickos1 »
Dickos.

Regarding the effect of the re-opening, I'll repeat: it takes time for results to be reported. There are currently no data AT ALL in the COVID dashboard reported for tests conducted after Thursday this week. It takes up to 5-6 days AFTER a test is conducted for that test result to be officially recorded. THAT is why the effect of the Euros could be in the data, but the effect of the re-opening cannot yet be.

On the general trend, I'll say once again that the kind of sudden screeching turnround in the test numbers is the sort of thing you would only expect to see as a REAL change in the trajectory if there was a major intervention like a hard lockdown. So, with the information in front of us, I do believe we are seeing is m mainly due to an anomaly in the number of people actually going for tests.

There'll be a way to assess that next week. If there really was a huge increase in the number of people testing positive, followed by a juddering stop and reduction, that should be reflected in the new hospitalisation data about 10 days later. If there is a huge surge in hospitalisations from now to Tuesday, followed by a sudden drop, I'll accept (and be delighted to accept) that I've read this totally wrongly. I assume it works for other people too.

Finally, I DO get passionate about this because the costs of erring on the side of complacency are enormous. And I see people being complacent all over the place over the past week. You might remember Dickos in early March last year you were telling me I was over doing it with the negative predictions. I said then that we had the choice between half a million deaths in 3 months or the biggest change since WWII to the way we organise our lives. And you were telling me I was over doing it.

Here you are now. No reflection in the past 18 months. Telling me I'm over doing it.

Billy,
You said yourself if your prediction of 100,000 cases per day and 100 deaths per day turned out to be wrong you’d be the first person on here stating you were wrong.

You are right about last March,
But a lots happened since then and I just don’t think your predictions will be anywhere close this time

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13022 on July 25, 2021, 11:26:46 am by River Don »
Finally, I DO get passionate about this because the costs of erring on the side of complacency are enormous. And I see people being complacent all over the place over the past week. You might remember Dickos in early March last year you were telling me I was over doing it with the negative predictions. I said then that we had the choice between half a million deaths in 3 months or the biggest change since WWII to the way we organise our lives. And you were telling me I was over doing it.


I see the complacency but the government has given licence to it now. Sometimes you have to accept there just are things in life that our out of our control.

Thankfully I'm still seeing a lot of people who understand the risks and continue to distance and wear masks.

Unfortunately all we can do now is look after our own, keep fingers crossed and watch events unfold.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13023 on July 25, 2021, 11:29:35 am by BillyStubbsTears »
And if I am wrong, I will hold my hand up.

What's your reaction to your approach last March?

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13024 on July 25, 2021, 01:51:16 pm by ravenrover »
Passports for Premier league games come October, how long before they are needed everywhere?

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13025 on July 25, 2021, 01:55:15 pm by dickos1 »
And if I am wrong, I will hold my hand up.

What's your reaction to your approach last March?

I’ve no idea what conversations were last March on here billy, but I suspect the majority of people weren’t predicting what happened back in early March.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13026 on July 25, 2021, 03:38:05 pm by bpoolrover »
Passports for Premier league games come October, how long before they are needed everywhere?
at the minute it's hard to argue against it

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13027 on July 25, 2021, 04:01:01 pm by ravenrover »
To be truthfull I'm all in favour, unless of course you are exempt for medical reasons.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13028 on July 25, 2021, 04:13:37 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Assuming it allows kids in too. Would be outrageos not to. If so I'm all for it.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13029 on July 25, 2021, 06:16:07 pm by dickos1 »
Another fall in cases today, 29k.
5 days in a row now.
This decline started in Scotland 3 weeks ago and the fall has continued up there, let’s hope it continues here.
I think the link with the schools closing could be exactly how the government called it, if we continue in the same vein as Scotland over the next few weeks it looks like the perfect timing to release restrictions and marrrying it up with the school Closures.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13030 on July 25, 2021, 06:38:26 pm by drfchound »
Another fall in cases today, 29k.
5 days in a row now.
This decline started in Scotland 3 weeks ago and the fall has continued up there, let’s hope it continues here.
I think the link with the schools closing could be exactly how the government called it, if we continue in the same vein as Scotland over the next few weeks it looks like the perfect timing to release restrictions and marrrying it up with the school Closures.





The fall in cases is definitely a trend now.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13031 on July 25, 2021, 06:39:20 pm by Filo »
Another fall in cases today, 29k.
5 days in a row now.
This decline started in Scotland 3 weeks ago and the fall has continued up there, let’s hope it continues here.
I think the link with the schools closing could be exactly how the government called it, if we continue in the same vein as Scotland over the next few weeks it looks like the perfect timing to release restrictions and marrrying it up with the school Closures.





The fall in cases is definitely a trend now.

Lets hope so, fingers crossed

GazLaz

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13032 on July 25, 2021, 07:08:11 pm by GazLaz »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13033 on July 25, 2021, 07:18:29 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

To a point, lots of kids actually still are at school.  My kids finished a week ago whereas I have colleagues who's kids don't finish until the middle of the coming week.

Eventually covid should run out of places to go but with greater adult mixing the drop will be temporary.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13034 on July 25, 2021, 08:05:21 pm by dickos1 »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13035 on July 25, 2021, 11:02:48 pm by SydneyRover »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.
[/b]

''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''

"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."

hmmm

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995


dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13036 on July 26, 2021, 12:03:06 am by dickos1 »
Lots of quotes you missed out there Sydney! Wonder why you just picked that one out.
“ In Scotland, case numbers started falling earlier than in England, with some evidence the decline may have been triggered by the football team's exit from the Euro 2020 tournament, although the downward trend has continued since then.”

In Scotland though it's now starting to look like it's a longer-term trend. We haven't seen any sign of cases picking up [since the football finished]".
The figures show the number of people taking Covid tests has fallen over the past fortnight, which scientists say could explain some of the drop in reported case numbers but is very unlikely to be the only factor.“

“ It is also the first time since the start of the pandemic that a sustained drop in cases has not coincided with a national lockdown.”

“If I was a betting man, I would now say that the impact of 19 July will not be sufficient to start case numbers increasing again, but I cannot be certain," said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.“






SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13037 on July 26, 2021, 12:20:55 am by SydneyRover »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.
[/b]

''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''

"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."

hmmm

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995

dickos:

''Lots of quotes you missed out there Sydney! Wonder why you just picked that one out''

probably because it was the ''dogs balls'' comment dickos, you could continue the conversation by discussing what you said and how my comment/quote has a bearing on it ..... and how your comment stands up in the light of this information .. or not of course.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13038 on July 26, 2021, 09:06:24 am by bpoolrover »
I do think it's important that numbers are falling for the first time without a lockdown since the pandemic started,of course the euros played a big part in the numbers going up but while numbers will rise again maybe the predictions of the nhs not being overrun might well come true

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13039 on July 26, 2021, 10:35:48 am by River Don »
BP

The big fall in numbers is very welcome but we aren't likely to see the effects of unlocking for a day or two yet at least.

I'll only feel sure we are seeing a real fall in infections if the downward trend continues well into next week.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13040 on July 26, 2021, 12:57:58 pm by bpoolrover »
BP

The big fall in numbers is very welcome but we aren't likely to see the effects of unlocking for a day or two yet at least.

I'll only feel sure we are seeing a real fall in infections if the downward trend continues well into next week.
I agree mate will probably take a few weeks then there will be a big inrease in numbers, what it is showing is you can get the numbers to go down without a lockdown due to the amount of people vaccinated that has to be positive news

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13041 on July 26, 2021, 04:34:12 pm by Filo »
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13042 on July 26, 2021, 05:14:08 pm by dickos1 »
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.

Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.
[/b]

''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''

"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."

hmmm

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995

dickos:

''Lots of quotes you missed out there Sydney! Wonder why you just picked that one out''

probably because it was the ''dogs balls'' comment dickos, you could continue the conversation by discussing what you said and how my comment/quote has a bearing on it ..... and how your comment stands up in the light of this information .. or not of course.


The quote from the article has nothing to do with schools closing.
And there were many quotes within the article that expressed an opinion that we won’t see any further increases etc etc etc
But you ignored those ones

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13043 on July 26, 2021, 05:16:30 pm by dickos1 »
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today

Got to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13044 on July 26, 2021, 05:41:21 pm by Filo »
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today

Got to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend

I’m sure everyone is delighted at that, not sure why you made a sly dig though

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13045 on July 26, 2021, 06:21:08 pm by dickos1 »
Never suggested anybody would be upset at that did I?
If rovers played Man U and won, many people would be wrong about predicting we would get hammered but doesn’t mean they’d be unhappy about being wrong.

Folk have took great delight in telling people they’re in cuckoo land if it was suggested their predictions wouldn’t come to fruition.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2021, 06:24:56 pm by dickos1 »

no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13046 on July 26, 2021, 06:46:00 pm by no eyed deer »
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today

Got to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend

I’m sure everyone is delighted at that, not sure why you made a sly dig though

That's a bit rich coming from you

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13047 on July 26, 2021, 06:59:13 pm by Filo »
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today

Got to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend

I’m sure everyone is delighted at that, not sure why you made a sly dig though

That's a bit rich coming from you

Go on then, show me an example

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13048 on July 26, 2021, 07:27:31 pm by bpoolrover »
I think the issue is when things look a little better hardly anyone posts, when you would think people would like some positive news, the minute anything bad happens or a scientist that suits the persons views there are quickly 100 posts

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13049 on July 26, 2021, 07:28:41 pm by dickos1 »
Exactly BR,
But it’s the same with rovers too, a good result sees many fewer posts than a defeat or a poor performance.

 

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