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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 584836 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13500 on August 30, 2021, 05:34:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Dickos.
I have no recollection of stating that as definitive outcomes.

I've just searched for that and found nothing. Can you point me to where I posted that?



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drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13501 on August 30, 2021, 05:53:36 pm by drfchound »
I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.


This is what BST wrote on 20th July.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13502 on August 30, 2021, 06:31:02 pm by dickos1 »
Dickos.
I have no recollection of stating that as definitive outcomes.

I've just searched for that and found nothing. Can you point me to where I posted that?

“I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.”

“My concern is that we are now heading into yet another wave where there will be several hundred people a day dying for an extended period, and hospitals again being unable to work as normal because there will be 20,000 people in hospital beds with COVID.”

“Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.”

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13503 on August 30, 2021, 07:03:23 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Thank you.

That first paragraph was a very stupid thing of me to say, because it didn't factor in the possibility of a sudden, and as yet still unexplained dip in cases after several weeks of consistent rises. I absolutely should not have said that.  I've (hopefully)  overestimated the peaks by a factor of 2.

Now Dickos. Back to March last year. You were comparing the (then) low COVID numbers with a bad flu outbreak which kills 30,000 in a year. In fact we had that many deaths in 5 weeks in the spring.

I had been warning that we were facing deaths in the hundreds of thousands or the biggest shock to society's behaviour since the War. You said that was "nonsense" and "OTT panicking".

So yes, I was unduly pessimistic about this outbreak. But that pales into insignificance against the dangerously complacent attitudes you were showing 18 months ago. I erred on the pessimistic side. If I'd been right, the worst that would have happened is that we'd have needed to be a bit more cautious on the unlocking. I am delighted that for once things have turned out better than the pessimistic outlook.

In March last year by contrast, those erring on the optimistic side woukd have led us into catastrophe if they had been listened to. I've yet to hear you hold up your hand and face up to how wrong you were then.

Last point. The third paragraph you posted. I assume you know we hit over 100 deaths in a day before the end of July? As a 7 day average, we hit 100 deaths a day on 18 Aug (so, yeah, "mid" August rather than "early"). The daily deaths are still rising and are likely to stay above 100 for a while. Hopefully we won't see the deaths go to 2-300.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13504 on August 30, 2021, 07:42:17 pm by dickos1 »
Thank you.

That first paragraph was a very stupid thing of me to say, because it didn't factor in the possibility of a sudden, and as yet still unexplained dip in cases after several weeks of consistent rises. I absolutely should not have said that.  I've (hopefully)  overestimated the peaks by a factor of 2.

Now Dickos. Back to March last year. You were comparing the (then) low COVID numbers with a bad flu outbreak which kills 30,000 in a year. In fact we had that many deaths in 5 weeks in the spring.

I had been warning that we were facing deaths in the hundreds of thousands or the biggest shock to society's behaviour since the War. You said that was "nonsense" and "OTT panicking".

So yes, I was unduly pessimistic about this outbreak. But that pales into insignificance against the dangerously complacent attitudes you were showing 18 months ago. I erred on the pessimistic side. If I'd been right, the worst that would have happened is that we'd have needed to be a bit more cautious on the unlocking. I am delighted that for once things have turned out better than the pessimistic outlook.

In March last year by contrast, those erring on the optimistic side woukd have led us into catastrophe if they had been listened to. I've yet to hear you hold up your hand and face up to how wrong you were then.

Last point. The third paragraph you posted. I assume you know we hit over 100 deaths in a day before the end of July? As a 7 day average, we hit 100 deaths a day on 18 Aug (so, yeah, "mid" August rather than "early"). The daily deaths are still rising and are likely to stay above 100 for a while. Hopefully we won't see the deaths go to 2-300.

Billy I’m just answering your plea to help
You out that’s all.

You posted earlier saying back in March 2020 I was insulting people, belittling people, being smug and condescending. In return for carrying out your plea, please could you show me where I was insulting, condescending, smug and belittling people?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13505 on August 30, 2021, 09:49:33 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Dickos.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953155#msg953155
People who were calling this bang on were talking "nonsense".

There was no way a virus that at that very moment was killing one person in every 150 in the only unconstrained outbreak in Europe, was going to kill hundreds of thousands.

Insulting to those who were actually thinking about what was going on. Smug complacency about the nightmare that was screaming towards us.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953357#msg953357

"End of the world panic figures". Comparison with flu
Complacent. Belittling.


https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953222#msg953222

"OTT panicking." Insulting. Complacent.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276372.msg953355#msg953355
Dismissing how dangerous this was. I'd said that, uncontrolled, at the peak, 25,000 people a day would die. Right at that very moment, scaled for population, they were having an outbreak that severe in Lombardy. You dismissed the possibility. Smug. Complacent.

Wrong at every step, when the consequences of people not taking the virus seriously were horrendous. Thousands of avoidable deaths. Tens of thousands of avoidable cases, leading to unnecessarily long lockdowns and economic damage. But not a flicker of self reflection.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13506 on August 30, 2021, 11:04:45 pm by SydneyRover »
In this current discussion, I've said, repeatedly, with evidence, that in MOST of America, the outbreak in terms of new cases is reasonably well under control. The overall USA numbers are not good and that is due to the fact that the Deep South is seeing an outbreak that is utterly out of control and has been allowed to get that way by insane libertarian policies from Trumpist state leaders.

Every word of that is fact and supported by the evidence.

But you are impossible to have an evidence-based discussion with. Because you decide your conclusion before you start. Then you look for any shred of evidence, however unrepresentative, to back that up, ignoring the mass of contradictory evidence. And when that fails you say "Well come back in 5 years and see. I'll be right then." Ignoring how utterly, totally, dangerously wrong you were when this all started.

As dangerously wrong as attempting to convince everyone we would be having hundreds of thousands of cases by now and hundred of deaths. It’s a good job we knew it was codswallop otherwise we’d all be barricaded in our homes right now

Sunak and the epidemiologist said the same dickos

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13507 on August 30, 2021, 11:07:53 pm by SydneyRover »
Actually this is right. The bigger threat to our safety long term is not 12 year olds but failing to vaccinate other countries.  The better thing to do is provide other countries with vaccines, that's what most scientists claim.

You can't say it's follow the science one way then not in another to suit your anti government agenda.

It's a bit debatable. I know the argument is 12 to 15 year old are less affected by the virus, so instead send vaccines to those who need protection abroad. Fine.

But if we want to significantly lower the circulation of the virus in this country, then we need a very high level of immunity to achieve herd immunity, then we need above 90% of the population vaccinated, in which case we need to vaccinated younger age groups.

Given the choice of protecting more vulnerable people internationally or surpressing the spread of the virus in the UK, many in the medical community plump for the international option.

Every wealthy country should be able to do both, pour money into vaccine manufacture, get their own population done afap and supply countries that struggle with cost.



I think it's more a question of logistics. They can't manufacture the stuff fast enough and it takes time to build enough new facilities to increase capacity.

It's been 18 months since the outbreak and longer since SARS etc that why I suggested throwing money at it. I wonder what the Cygnus findings suggested?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13508 on August 31, 2021, 07:45:06 am by River Don »
A big fall in the daily rate compared with the previous week yesterday.

I think we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel now. A very large proportion of the population is now double vaxxed or has antibodies.

I expect there will be a surge as schools and colleges return but I'm hopeful it won't last long.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13509 on August 31, 2021, 01:44:32 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
And THIS is how f**king unhinged the Trumpist Republicans are in the USA.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1432166542683279362

This is a genuine candidate for the Governor of Pennsylvania. Wanting to overturn the wearing of masks in schools. Presumably so Pennsylvania which is just about keeping a lid on the current outbreak with 250 new cases per day, per million inhabitants can be more like Florida where they have banned mask mandates and they have over four times as many cases per head.

They are utterly insane.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13510 on August 31, 2021, 06:24:55 pm by bpoolrover »
Bit better news this week deaths are down over 7days numbers up but not a lot and same with hospital admissions

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13511 on August 31, 2021, 06:31:32 pm by drfchound »
So not all doom and gloom then.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13512 on August 31, 2021, 06:44:52 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Bit better news this week deaths are down over 7days numbers up but not a lot and same with hospital admissions

Today's deaths number is from deaths that were reported yesterday - which was  a Bank Holiday.

I'd like to think that the number of deaths has really dropped from 174 last Tuesday to 50 today, but the chances of that being a real drop are very slim. I'd be expecting numbers to be a lot higher for the rest of the week.

hstripes

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13513 on August 31, 2021, 07:05:57 pm by hstripes »
Lots of (mainly perfectly legitimate) criticisms of the government re their actions in tackling the pandemic on this thread.

But I think it's important to recognize who is mainly to blame for the current increases in cases and deaths and what may come over the winter both in terms of health outcomes plus any returns to restrictions on us all.

And it's not the government.

Statistic from Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Trust taken from this week's Free Press: 35 people are currently in intensive care with Covid - all 35 unvaccinated.

Latest from the Zoe study: 70% of current symptomatic cases are in the unvaccinated.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2021, 10:29:14 pm by hstripes »

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13514 on August 31, 2021, 07:23:10 pm by dickos1 »
Lots of (mainly perfectly legitimate) criticisms of the government re their actions in tackling this pandemic on this thread.

But I think it's important to recognize who is mainly to blame for the current level of increasing cases and deaths and what may come over the winter both in terms of health outcomes plus any returns to restrictions on us all.

And it's not the government.

Statistic from Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Trust taken from this week's Free Press: 35 people are currently in intensive care with Covid - all 35 unvaccinated.

Latest from the Zoe study: 70% of current symptomatic cases are in the unvaccinated.

Exactly

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13515 on August 31, 2021, 07:37:36 pm by dickos1 »
Dickos.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953155#msg953155
People who were calling this bang on were talking "nonsense".

There was no way a virus that at that very moment was killing one person in every 150 in the only unconstrained outbreak in Europe, was going to kill hundreds of thousands.

Insulting to those who were actually thinking about what was going on. Smug complacency about the nightmare that was screaming towards us.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953357#msg953357

"End of the world panic figures". Comparison with flu
Complacent. Belittling.


https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953222#msg953222

"OTT panicking." Insulting. Complacent.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276372.msg953355#msg953355
Dismissing how dangerous this was. I'd said that, uncontrolled, at the peak, 25,000 people a day would die. Right at that very moment, scaled for population, they were having an outbreak that severe in Lombardy. You dismissed the possibility. Smug. Complacent.

Wrong at every step, when the consequences of people not taking the virus seriously were horrendous. Thousands of avoidable deaths. Tens of thousands of avoidable cases, leading to unnecessarily long lockdowns and economic damage. But not a flicker of self reflection.


None of my replies we’re insulting people, none of them were belittling people, none were smug or condescending.
A lot of what I wrote was incorrect, there were many people more intelligent than me saying similar though.
And one of the posts you’ve trolled back to find just states that many people will have the virus and not even know they have it, which turned out to be true.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13516 on September 01, 2021, 03:32:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Looks like the lesson is right under our noses.

https://mobile.twitter.com/alan_firth_/status/1432723155806720011

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13517 on September 01, 2021, 03:48:08 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Maybe our adults should step up first?  20% of adults in Doncaster have not had a jab, that's below the average.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13518 on September 01, 2021, 04:41:29 pm by bpoolrover »
Maybe our adults should step up first?  20% of adults in Doncaster have not had a jab, that's below the average.
100 percent agree, how can you expect figures like that here when the adults are
Not doing it

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13519 on September 01, 2021, 05:23:28 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP.
I couldn't agree more. But how are you going to get them to do that? As I've been saying for a good while now, in the absence of some adults being grown up, the best way to hit HI as quickly as possible and get R below 1 is to vaccinate teenagers. The evidence from Denmark strongly backs that up. And the fact that they have entirely controlled the spread of the virus throughout this year means that the outbreak is now declining from a very low peak (<1000 cases per day) and deaths are at 0-2 per day. In simple terms, they have a population about 1/6th of ours, but an outbreak about 1/50th - 1/100th as bad as ours. We COULD have been in a similar per capita situation had we controlled this outbreak instead of letting it run loose in the Spring. But we are where we are now and even if (as may just be happening - fingers crossed) we are starting to see the outbreak finally top out, there is a long way to go before deaths and hospitalisations become insignificant.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13520 on September 01, 2021, 05:44:38 pm by bpoolrover »
Other good news it seems long covid in children won't be anywhere near as bad as in adults

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13521 on September 03, 2021, 08:48:58 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Good to see Sydney's friends in the UK helping his country out. Exactly the type of thing that we should be doing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58431190

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13522 on September 03, 2021, 09:19:55 am by SydneyRover »
Good to see Sydney's friends in the UK helping his country out. Exactly the type of thing that we should be doing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58431190

Second time if I remember correctly pud, the PM here is in all sorts of shit as he has been telling everyone that would listen that getting people to have a jab wasn't a race ................ because he f**ked up by not ordering enough.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13523 on September 03, 2021, 09:35:59 am by wilts rover »
Lots of (mainly perfectly legitimate) criticisms of the government re their actions in tackling the pandemic on this thread.

But I think it's important to recognize who is mainly to blame for the current increases in cases and deaths and what may come over the winter both in terms of health outcomes plus any returns to restrictions on us all.

And it's not the government.

Statistic from Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Trust taken from this week's Free Press: 35 people are currently in intensive care with Covid - all 35 unvaccinated.

Latest from the Zoe study: 70% of current symptomatic cases are in the unvaccinated.

Which is the risk those particular individuals take.

However what the government are doing is allowing a highly infectious disease to roam about unchecked - in the full knowledge of what disruption this causes to business, schools, hospitals, care homes, etc - and in the knowledge that vaccinines effectiveness wanes over time and the disease mutates.

They appear to be the only country in the world doing this.

If the Mu variation takes off - it wont be the fault of people in Doncaster hospital. Once again they have been warned something dangerous may happen and rather than taking measures to ensure it doesn't happen are just hoping that it wont.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13524 on September 03, 2021, 12:06:46 pm by bpoolrover »
They couldn't prior to now. Because we hadn't ordered the vaccines suitable for 12-15 year olds. Most countries in the EU had the vaccine a while ago and have been vaccinating 12-15 year olds well before us. 

And these things happen. But it's a mistake that needs to be weighed in the balance when considering our overall vaccination programme performance.
what vaccines haven't we got for the 12-15 year olds?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13525 on September 03, 2021, 12:48:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Pfizer.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13526 on September 03, 2021, 12:57:19 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Pfizer.

But we have got them and have even given them away, so not convinced that's the reason.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13527 on September 03, 2021, 01:01:57 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This was widely aired earlier in the summer. We had an order of 40 million delivered in the Spring. The next batch of 60 million are due to start rolling in any time now.

The 40 million were effectively all allocated for  18-40 year olds and others who could not take AZ. It was considered there weren't enough to give all them 2 doses AND do 12-18 year olds.

I'm guessing the ones we've just announced are going to Australia are from the new delivery?

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13528 on September 03, 2021, 01:30:10 pm by bpoolrover »
Again it's guesswork if we're giving away 4 million now and the government say they are ready to give kids the vaccine soon as jcvi give the go ahead why not just take it as that's right? Conspiris should not be used where the vaccine is concerned

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13529 on September 03, 2021, 01:37:16 pm by SydneyRover »
Pfizer.

But we have got them and have even given them away, so not convinced that's the reason.

As far as I'm aware Australia has borrowed 4 million that are probably close to the expiry date and we will pay them back when we get our batch later, we have just done the same for a 0.5m with Singapore.

 

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