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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 562553 times)

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Axholme Lion

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13560 on September 07, 2021, 10:01:32 am by Axholme Lion »
What's the point in vaccinating young people if the elderly who were previously vaccinated are needing a top up?



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13561 on September 07, 2021, 04:19:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Today's numbers are very sobering.

The 7 day average for new cases is up 14% in the past 5 days and the figure for daily deaths is up 22%. I suspect (certainly hope) that these numbers are slightly skewed by the bank holiday last week suppressing last week's numbers, but whichever way you look it ain't good.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13562 on September 07, 2021, 04:39:41 pm by bpoolrover »
I
Think they are as expected as with over 1 million more tests last week the numbers will of course go up, the numbers in hospital are going up slowly but not at a fast rate and nothing that the nhs can't cope with, the numbers will hopefully stabilise once kids have been back a couple of weeks, Spain have been down to under 10k cases daily for awhile now and 100 deaths still but again they are starting to fall now just as they should here
« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 04:43:07 pm by bpoolrover »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13563 on September 07, 2021, 04:46:37 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It's the daily deaths figure that concerns me Bpool. We've all taken our eye off that in the relief over the daily case numbers falling in late July. But the daily deaths have kept on rising remorselessly. 6 weeks ago, at the back end of July, the 7 day average of daily deaths was 68. Today it is 135. Hopefully today's figures are a bit of an exaggeration due to the way deaths were reported over the bank holiday weekend last week. But however you look at it, daily deaths have increased by well over 50% since the end of July and there's little sign that the rise is running our of steam.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13564 on September 07, 2021, 04:54:17 pm by bpoolrover »
It's the daily deaths figure that concerns me Bpool. We've all taken our eye off that in the relief over the daily case numbers falling in late July. But the daily deaths have kept on rising remorselessly. 6 weeks ago, at the back end of July, the 7 day average of daily deaths was 68. Today it is 135. Hopefully today's figures are a bit of an exaggeration due to the way deaths were reported over the bank holiday weekend last week. But however you look at it, daily deaths have increased by well over 50% since the end of July and there's little sign that the rise is running our of steam.
I agree mate they are high and while cases are high deaths will be, we need find out how many deaths are people unvaccinated by choice thou, but I don't think deaths will go up much more if the cases stay round about the same number, the problem is should we vaccinate the children or not, the only way really to get cases down is to vaccinate them, then there is the moral issue of vaccinated children to protect others a very hard choice
« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 04:56:20 pm by bpoolrover »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13565 on September 07, 2021, 05:19:55 pm by bpoolrover »
The numbers for having corona are actually better than I thought as over 1.8 million more tests over 7 days

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13566 on September 07, 2021, 05:53:27 pm by dickos1 »
Billy
I’ve never seen a post from you stating the figures look good or positive and when other people do this you always have an argument as to why the figures look positive.
But as soon as the figures look less positive your on here in a flash going on about it, and if someone offers an opinion why they may look negative you try and argue against this opinion.
I just honestly don’t understand the stance you’re taking throughout the whole thing, it’s just baffling.
Everything is Uber negative and you won’t let an ounce of positivity into the subject

sha66y

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13567 on September 07, 2021, 05:59:51 pm by sha66y »
Maybe the figures are not true?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13568 on September 07, 2021, 06:16:33 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Dickos.

It's called the Precautionary Principle.

When you are facing a major danger, it is utterly irresponsible to be optimistic that everything will turn out alright. If I'd done that in Feb and early March 2020, my business would have folded. As it was, by seeing a f**king great danger coming over the horizon, at a time when others were insisting that things weren't going to be too bad, I had my staff work overtime to finish three major contracts just before lockdown came in. That gave us the income to see us through the lockdown.

As regards interpretation of actual data and you saying I always put a negative spin on it, I assume you didn't bother to read what I have said just a couple of hours ago. I said that there were reasons why the current death rate might be an overestimate. Why would I have said that if I was the person you believe me to be, who never says anything positive on the subject.

What I do, at every stage, is to make an assessment of where I think we are. Sometimes I get that wrong, but overwhelmingly I have got it right over the past 18 months. What fascinates me is the attitude of some folk in here. On the rare occasions that I have been wrong on the negative side, there's been a few who have gleefully rushed in to point it out. When I've been broadly right, the same folk complain that I'm not optimistic enough, as though being optimistic is the way to defeat an epidemic.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 06:24:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13569 on September 07, 2021, 06:17:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yep shaggy. Maybe every medical records officer everywhere in the world is in on a Great Reset conspiracy.

sha66y

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13570 on September 07, 2021, 06:29:53 pm by sha66y »
Yep shaggy. Maybe every medical records officer everywhere in the world is in on a Great Reset conspiracy.

Never said that or even implied it BST!
Statistics are used to govern and shape opinions…..

hstripes

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13571 on September 07, 2021, 09:10:06 pm by hstripes »
With hospitalisations and deaths rising and evidence of the need for booster jabs in the older/more vulnerable (given they were jabbed first) increasingly strong what are the government doing?

Where is the decision to offer vaccines to 12-15 year olds before they increasingly spread Covid between themselves and then onto the elderly as they do every year with flu?

Where is the rollout of the booster vaccines which is needed before time runs out to get this done to sufficient levels before winter sets in?

Where are the vaccine passports and additional 'stick' measures to encourage the selfish bas**rd unvaccinated who are driving this rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths?

Slow and reactive rather than proactive sums the Government up on this pandemic. Need a primary reason why we have one of the worst death rates in the world - look no further.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13572 on September 07, 2021, 10:42:44 pm by SydneyRover »
With hospitalisations and deaths rising and evidence of the need for booster jabs in the older/more vulnerable (given they were jabbed first) increasingly strong what are the government doing?

Where is the decision to offer vaccines to 12-15 year olds before they increasingly spread Covid between themselves and then onto the elderly as they do every year with flu?

Where is the rollout of the booster vaccines which is needed before time runs out to get this done to sufficient levels before winter sets in?

Where are the vaccine passports and additional 'stick' measures to encourage the selfish bas**rd unvaccinated who are driving this rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths?

Slow and reactive rather than proactive sums the Government up on this pandemic. Need a primary reason why we have one of the worst death rates in the world - look no further.

Over to you dickos

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13573 on September 07, 2021, 10:55:40 pm by dickos1 »
With hospitalisations and deaths rising and evidence of the need for booster jabs in the older/more vulnerable (given they were jabbed first) increasingly strong what are the government doing?

Where is the decision to offer vaccines to 12-15 year olds before they increasingly spread Covid between themselves and then onto the elderly as they do every year with flu?

Where is the rollout of the booster vaccines which is needed before time runs out to get this done to sufficient levels before winter sets in?

Where are the vaccine passports and additional 'stick' measures to encourage the selfish bas**rd unvaccinated who are driving this rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths?

Slow and reactive rather than proactive sums the Government up on this pandemic. Need a primary reason why we have one of the worst death rates in the world - look no further.

Over to you dickos

What’s it got to do with me?

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13574 on September 07, 2021, 10:59:04 pm by SydneyRover »
because you are the defender of the government's position on this, the massively high death rate are you not?

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13575 on September 07, 2021, 11:03:50 pm by dickos1 »
Dickos.

It's called the Precautionary Principle.

When you are facing a major danger, it is utterly irresponsible to be optimistic that everything will turn out alright. If I'd done that in Feb and early March 2020, my business would have folded. As it was, by seeing a f**king great danger coming over the horizon, at a time when others were insisting that things weren't going to be too bad, I had my staff work overtime to finish three major contracts just before lockdown came in. That gave us the income to see us through the lockdown.

As regards interpretation of actual data and you saying I always put a negative spin on it, I assume you didn't bother to read what I have said just a couple of hours ago. I said that there were reasons why the current death rate might be an overestimate. Why would I have said that if I was the person you believe me to be, who never says anything positive on the subject.

What I do, at every stage, is to make an assessment of where I think we are. Sometimes I get that wrong, but overwhelmingly I have got it right over the past 18 months. What fascinates me is the attitude of some folk in here. On the rare occasions that I have been wrong on the negative side, there's been a few who have gleefully rushed in to point it out. When I've been broadly right, the same folk complain that I'm not optimistic enough, as though being optimistic is the way to defeat an epidemic.


I’m not questioning whether you’ve been right or wrong,
I’ve just never seen you make a post stating the figures are low today and it looks encouraging, but you’re always the first on here when the figures don’t look as good.

It’s maybe just what society does, on the main forum for example the board is dead after a good performance but give them a bad performance and the board is chaos

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13576 on September 07, 2021, 11:06:01 pm by dickos1 »
because you are the defender of the government's position on this, the massively high death rate are you not?

Nope!

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13577 on September 07, 2021, 11:08:26 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Then you've been reading selectively. I regularly commented on how effective lockdowns were at reducing infection rates, and how effective the vaccines have been in reducing fatalities, and how well we rolled out the vaccines.

If you only read posts where I'm saying things are not going well, that's all you'll see.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13578 on September 07, 2021, 11:14:01 pm by SydneyRover »
because you are the defender of the government's position on this, the massively high death rate are you not?

Nope!

You're a funny guy dickos

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13579 on September 08, 2021, 05:20:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The daily death figures look really bad on the surface once again. Yesterday and today combined is the worst two day figure since early March. And we are currently at a 7 day average of 134 deaths, which is getting close to the 150 that it was reported last week is the level at which the Govt has been advised to restore social distancing mandates.

It's possible that things aren't quite this bad. There are hints in the data that the massive numbers reported in the past two days are to some extent due to reporting of deaths over the past fortnight which had been late getting onto the books. So maybe things weren't quite as rosy as they looked 10 days ago, and are not quite as bad as they look now. Fingers crossed.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13580 on September 09, 2021, 06:03:04 pm by Metalmicky »
Scotland leading the way on passport vaccines...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13581 on September 12, 2021, 11:39:16 am by BillyStubbsTears »
So no vaccine passports then. Strange, because on Friday a Cabinet Minister said it was almost certain they'd bring them in for nightclubs. Then suddenly this morning we don't need them.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13582 on September 12, 2021, 12:04:13 pm by SydneyRover »
We have just printed ours out, the gov wants to use it as an incentive to get the jab.

hstripes

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  • Posts: 171
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13583 on September 12, 2021, 03:17:00 pm by hstripes »
So no vaccine passports then. Strange, because on Friday a Cabinet Minister said it was almost certain they'd bring them in for nightclubs. Then suddenly this morning we don't need them.

Suddenly this morning they've seen the latest opinion polls in the Sunday papers after their tax increase.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13584 on September 12, 2021, 04:32:33 pm by bpoolrover »
Good news on the case numbers this weekend down by 10k on last week

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13585 on September 12, 2021, 04:56:52 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yep, looks like there's been no lasting surge from school testing. Question now is if this becomes a sustained drop, or if we are just coming off a hump from school testing, back onto the steady rising trend that we saw through most of August.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13586 on September 12, 2021, 05:40:18 pm by bpoolrover »
It was always going to go up in august with things just opening, hopefully we can get the numbers down a little now

KeithMyath

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13587 on September 13, 2021, 12:42:17 pm by KeithMyath »
It was always going to go up in august with things just opening, hopefully we can get the numbers down a little now

As per last weeks ONS release, Covid is still increasing over the UK as a whole, England has stayed the same at 1 in 70, but wales and scotland have increased again, scotland now has 1 in 45 having Covid, which is grim. So deaths unfortunately look to continue going up for a further 3 weeks.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/10september2021

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13588 on September 13, 2021, 12:53:45 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It was always going to go up in august with things just opening, hopefully we can get the numbers down a little now

But that misses the fact that many more people are outside and/or inside with windows and doors open and getting good ventilation over the summer.

All things being equal, you'd expect the rate of infection to increase more strongly in Autumn than in Summer, as more people spend time indoors in close proximity. That's just standard epidemiology. The question is: how close are we to Herd Immunity and will that outweigh the natural propensity for viral epidemics to get worse in Autumn? Listening to the experts over the past few days, there are very few saying they expect things to get better over the next few weeks. More a hope that they won't get too much worse.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13589 on September 13, 2021, 02:00:28 pm by bpoolrover »
But as you know bst it does not always follow the rules, while families may stay in more the pubs cafes ball pools and other indoor activities where your mixing with strangers will not be as busy, as you say more people will be fully jabbed and more people will have immunity from getting covid, when the schools went back if someone had said to you there would be no real increase you would have doubted that so let's see where we're at in a month or so

 

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