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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 394247 times)

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big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13650 on September 17, 2021, 01:02:40 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
They aren't perfect no, but they are pretty good.  I guess we should think morally if we want to take that risk of hurting somebody else.  But that's a question we should consider on other conditions.  I say that as I'm about to start a course of steroids to hopefully solve my breathing issues.  A small simple cold that others passed off in a day or two has led to a few weeks of struggling and getting worse, should we generally think of that in future for all autumn/winter periods?  I'd say not, but for others with much more serious conditions it is worth thinking about morally.

I'm with Axholme Lion, masks in shops etc but not in the workplace or at events.  I somehow managed the Great North run last week (which with this chest was a miracle, but I wasn't for giving in and finished albeit behind a fair bit behind my best and with an injury).  They did a pretty good job of increasing the space on the course to make it quite socially distanced.  With 50000 people involved I was really quite impressed. Even the trains weren't full which is rare for that event.  That should be what we maintain for some time.

It is though a huge positive that so far there hasn't been an explosion in cases now schools are back, gigs and football matches occurring.



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Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13651 on September 17, 2021, 02:02:33 pm by Ldr »
They aren't perfect no, but they are pretty good.  I guess we should think morally if we want to take that risk of hurting somebody else.  But that's a question we should consider on other conditions.  I say that as I'm about to start a course of steroids to hopefully solve my breathing issues.  A small simple cold that others passed off in a day or two has led to a few weeks of struggling and getting worse, should we generally think of that in future for all autumn/winter periods?  I'd say not, but for others with much more serious conditions it is worth thinking about morally.

I'm with Axholme Lion, masks in shops etc but not in the workplace or at events.  I somehow managed the Great North run last week (which with this chest was a miracle, but I wasn't for giving in and finished albeit behind a fair bit behind my best and with an injury).  They did a pretty good job of increasing the space on the course to make it quite socially distanced.  With 50000 people involved I was really quite impressed. Even the trains weren't full which is rare for that event.  That should be what we maintain for some time.

It is though a huge positive that so far there hasn't been an explosion in cases now schools are back, gigs and football matches occurring.

That’s some good going, had a friend staying with me up here that ran it. Had to pick him up from the town moor as he knacked his knee

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13652 on September 17, 2021, 02:45:33 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So the implication there is that the vaccines are not particularly effective in protecting others

The vaccines have some effect I'm reducing transmissibility.

The masks have some effect in reducing transmissibility.

Neither is a 100% slam dunk. Done together, they are more effective than each one on its own.

It's about marginal gains, not a binary safe/not safe thing.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13653 on September 17, 2021, 03:15:52 pm by Ldr »
I’d take issue with your first statement BST. When looked at holistically you could make the argument that they are increasing transmission. Based on ppl circulating more under impression they are protected. So potentially lower individual transmission against vastly increased personal contact

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13654 on September 17, 2021, 05:03:42 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
That's an entirely different issue Ldr. I'm talking about the basic mechanisms of vaccination and mask wearing in reducing basic transmissibility. You are talking about public behaviour. Which of course IS very important, and is the reason I've been genuinely shocked at the example set by the Tory party and Cabinet in Parliament.

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13655 on September 17, 2021, 07:44:20 pm by scawsby steve »
Scawsby Steve always wears a mask. I'm not sure though if he wears one for moral purposes or because he's got more chance of pulling a bird.

People have been asking me for ages why I always wear a gargoyle mask.

I daren't tell them I'm actually not wearing a mask.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13656 on September 18, 2021, 01:09:36 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1439186770139172865

I don't know which is more shocking. The condescending arrogance or the stupefying ignorance of the purpose of masks. Typical Tory backwoodsman though. Thick as mince and born to rule.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13657 on September 18, 2021, 01:29:26 pm by bpoolrover »
While to set a example they should wear masks you could argue if 200 of them went to a pub again a indoor setting no one would bat a eye lid as there would be no need to wear a mask, I think it's just getting to the point scoring mode now, would be interesting to see how many of the people saying they should wear masks will be in overcrowded trains and concourses today not wearing a mask

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13658 on September 18, 2021, 01:41:04 pm by drfchound »
Some good points there bpool.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13659 on September 18, 2021, 05:35:14 pm by bpoolrover »
Cases and hospitalisation down over a 7 day average which is also good news, and thank you hound hope your well mate

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13660 on September 18, 2021, 11:55:39 pm by Bentley Bullet »
bpoolrover, please stop being optimistic on the Covid front, you are just agitating the loony left natives on this forum.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13661 on September 20, 2021, 04:20:17 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Really difficult to know what is going on with the infection numbers at the moment.

10 days ago, the 7 day average stood at 38,000 per day. Then it fell like a stone, dropping to 29,000 within a week. Then just as quickly, the fall stopped and it's moved back up to over 30,000 over the past three days.

I'm guessing most of the rise in late August/early Sept was kids getting tested as they returned to school. Then that blip drooped out of the numbers, hence the sudden fall 10 days ago. Now perhaps we are back to the underlying trend which is what we were seeing in early August. A steady, slow rise.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13662 on September 20, 2021, 04:40:39 pm by bpoolrover »
Really difficult to know what is going on with the infection numbers at the moment.

10 days ago, the 7 day average stood at 38,000 per day. Then it fell like a stone, dropping to 29,000 within a week. Then just as quickly, the fall stopped and it's moved back up to over 30,000 over the past three days.

I'm guessing most of the rise in late August/early Sept was kids getting tested as they returned to school. Then that blip drooped out of the numbers, hence the sudden fall 10 days ago. Now perhaps we are back to the underlying trend which is what we were seeing in early August. A steady, slow rise.
the deaths have only gone up slightly and hospitalisations are down, most experts again said there would be a big/v big surge in cases when schools went back, again this has not happened, as more people get double jabbed and 12-15 year olds get jabbed there is no reason to think things will get much worse, there will be winter and the flu and hard times but hospital beds are at 7 percent with corona so for me anyway with a new variant things will only get better after winter

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13663 on September 20, 2021, 04:59:26 pm by albie »
Blackpool,

We won't see the impact of the schools re-opening for about 3 weeks, because there is a lag before infections show up.

This is why it would have been better to jab the kids in the summer holiday, not wait until they were back in class.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13664 on September 20, 2021, 05:17:20 pm by ravenrover »
The 1st cases are appearing at my Grandaighters Junior School

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13665 on September 20, 2021, 05:32:08 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There WAS a big surge in positive test results. The seven day average had been steady for a couple of weeks at the back end of August, then it went up 15% in 3-4 days as the schools testing data came through. But that was very likley just picking up infections that weren't being noticed before because kids were not getting tested in the holidays. What really matters is if the cases start to increase again due to kids being in school, and more people starting to spend more time indoors as the weather (eventually) deteriorates. As Albie says, it'll take time before we see whether cases rise as the epidemiology modellers expect them to.

As for deaths, they are currently rising slowly (up from mid 130s to mid 140s in the past ten days) which is what you'd expect if the underlying trend of cases (ignoring the ups and downs of school testing) was a slow increase throughout mid-late August. Any changes to the spread of the epidemic happening now won't show through in death numbers until the middle of next month.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13666 on September 20, 2021, 06:52:51 pm by bpoolrover »
I agree with the death numbers, at the end of august start of September when there was around 1.5 million tests more a week they did go up but nothing like was predicted

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13667 on September 20, 2021, 07:07:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Testing went up by about 45% from mid Aug to early Sept (roughly 750k per day to 1M) . Positive cases went up about 35% (roughly 28k to 38k).

That's about right. There are obvious reasons why, when you blitz-test schoolkids, you wouldn't expect positive results to increase as fast as the number of tests.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13668 on September 20, 2021, 07:50:29 pm by bpoolrover »
Testing went up by about 45% from mid Aug to early Sept (roughly 750k per day to 1M) . Positive cases went up about 35% (roughly 28k to 38k).

That's about right. There are obvious reasons why, when you blitz-test schoolkids, you wouldn't expect positive results to increase as fast as the number of tests.
yes but the school kids didn't tested till early September and the cases didn't seem to surge then unless I'm mistaken

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13669 on September 20, 2021, 09:13:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
My kids didn't go back till early Sept, but maybe they weren't typical. Test numbers shot up from about 16 Aug, peaking at 6 Sept. There's no other obvious reason why test numbers should have risen so dramatically other than kids being tested. The 16 Aug date ties in with Scottish schools reopening.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13670 on September 20, 2021, 09:22:06 pm by ravenrover »
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears
link=topic=275849.msg1089689#msg1089689 date=1632155528
There WAS a big surge in positive test results. The seven day average had been steady for a couple of weeks at the back end of August, then it went up 15% in 3-4 days as the schools testing data came through. But that was very likley just picking up infections that weren't being noticed before because kids were not getting tested in the holidays. What really matters is if the cases start to increase again due to kids being in school, and more people starting to spend more time indoors as the weather (eventually) deteriorates. As Albie says, it'll take time before we see whether cases rise as the epidemiology modellers expect them to.

As for deaths, they are currently rising slowly (up from mid 130s to mid 140s in the past ten days) which is what you'd expect if the underlying trend of cases (ignoring the ups and downs of school testing) was a slow increase throughout mid-late August. Any changes to the spread of the epidemic happening now won't show through in death numbers until the middle of next month.
Deaths within 28 days of Covid, but deaths from what?
How many are actually dying from Covid or a Covid related illness.
If I had a positive test for Covid 28 days ago and got knocked over by a bus  I would still figure in the total number of deaths, yes? Crazy

hstripes

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13671 on September 20, 2021, 09:46:25 pm by hstripes »
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears
link=topic=275849.msg1089689#msg1089689 date=1632155528

Deaths within 28 days of Covid, but deaths from what?
How many are actually dying from Covid or a Covid related illness.
If I had a positive test for Covid 28 days ago and got knocked over by a bus  I would still figure in the total number of deaths, yes? Crazy

Yes you're correct but.... In 2019 (i.e. pre Covid) c. 600,000 deaths were recorded in the UK, just under 1% of the population. So chance of dying from something other than Covid 1%/365 on any given day. Apply that to the c 1,000,000 people who have tested positive in the last 28 days gives from a rough and ready calculation 25 deaths. We are currently recording c 140 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test per day so the majority are from Covid or include Covid as a co-morbidity.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2021, 10:01:35 pm by hstripes »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13672 on September 20, 2021, 09:54:25 pm by bpoolrover »
My kids didn't go back till early Sept, but maybe they weren't typical. Test numbers shot up from about 16 Aug, peaking at 6 Sept. There's no other obvious reason why test numbers should have risen so dramatically other than kids being tested. The 16 Aug date ties in with Scottish schools reopening.
if Scotland is included it ties in with them dropping restrictions on the 9th of august, my kids went back on September 7th but were tested the week before

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13673 on September 22, 2021, 01:27:16 am by bpoolrover »
Blackpool,

We won't see the impact of the schools re-opening for about 3 weeks, because there is a lag before infections show up.

This is why it would have been better to jab the kids in the summer holiday, not wait until they were back in class.
most schools have been back 3 weeks near enough, why don't you think we will see the effect for 3 weeks? Scotland's cases went up for around 26/27 days since schools opened then started to drop, so if England follows suit in another few days the numbers will fall, but let's wait and see
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 01:35:57 am by bpoolrover »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13674 on September 23, 2021, 11:45:39 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Good news and bad news in this assessment of the current cases by age group.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_7JAa-VQAQZmpU?format=jpg&name=medium

Clearly there has been a sharp drop in cases in most age groups since the start of September. As such we should probably expect an equally sharp fall in daily deaths over the next fortnight, hopefully down to below 100 per day which is where they have been now for a month. That all ties in with the sharp drop in daily hospitalisations over the last week or two. That is all very welcome news.

Concerning thing is that it looks like cases in schoolkids have rocketed again after the start of term. I heard the other day that 1 in  8 kids are currently off school with COVID. And that graph suggests that, as previously, those cases are now spreading out into a rise in cases among other age groups. So that would imply that hospital cases would likely start rising again around the end of the month, and deaths around mid-October. Question now is how long this increase in cases goes on for. If it carries on through October, and increases with University students going back to college, the hospital cases and deaths are likely to be rising sharply through November, just as we go into the flu season.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13675 on September 24, 2021, 10:08:16 am by Bentley Bullet »
Have those 1 in 8 kids with Covid been PCR tested?

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13676 on September 24, 2021, 10:19:31 am by bpoolrover »
I think that they will rise in mid October and November for sure as will have been expected, that's why it was important to open up when we did and not leave it a few more weeks as it would be rising sharply in the middle of winter otherwise, the October holidays will hopefully reduce numbers aswel, unfortunately we can't do much about the flu if we had kept distancing and wearing masks all the time no doubt next years flu season would be even worse than this years

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13677 on September 24, 2021, 10:32:32 am by SydneyRover »
wrong thread Billy

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13678 on September 24, 2021, 11:20:24 am by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13679 on September 28, 2021, 04:13:11 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Still it goes on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1442454472144293898

Further down that thread there is an astonishing figure. In this latest wave, the death rate in areas that voted 70+% for Trump last year is almost five times the rate in areas equally strongly supporting Biden. And of course, Biden's support is highest in densely populated cities, where the virus spreads more easily.

Just astonishing how stupid some people can be.  The Trumpists literally dying for their "principles".
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 04:16:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

 

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