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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 586920 times)

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selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13860 on October 11, 2021, 05:40:33 pm by selby »
good news from AstraZenica about a new treatment AZD7442 showing the ability to prevent and treat Covid19 and reversing trends in patients who have Covid if treated after up to seven days.https://www.livemint.com/science/health/astrazeneca-drug-cocktail-azd7442-succeeds-in-late-stage-study-to-treat-covid19-11633935906732.html
« Last Edit: October 11, 2021, 05:50:04 pm by selby »



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13861 on October 11, 2021, 05:50:45 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
What I'm doing is exercising a duty of care while there is an enhanced risk that other employees might be infectious. Because, at this age, the employee I'm protecting has a 1 in 50 chance of dying if he contracts COVID. I'm doing it, you unpleasant piece of work, because I feel a sense of responsibility. Whereas you would let this loose and kill whoever it will.

Comparisons with 1918 are about as stupid as it gets. Back then, they reckoned a suitable way to sort out international disputes was to massacre 10 million young men in mudbaths. Do you want us to go back to that as well?

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13862 on October 11, 2021, 07:46:58 pm by drfchound »
What I'm doing is exercising a duty of care while there is an enhanced risk that other employees might be infectious. Because, at this age, the employee I'm protecting has a 1 in 50 chance of dying if he contracts COVID.


Posted by BST in September:

Off Topic / Re: Coronavirus
« on: September 13, 2021, 09:35:22 pm »


“I've got to the point now where I genuinely think any idiot who won't take the vaccine deserves what is coming to them.  So yes I would bring in vaccine passports and give them a f**king big kick up the arse to grow up and act sensibly.”

Maybe a change of direction then.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2021, 08:30:49 pm by drfchound »

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13863 on October 11, 2021, 08:38:45 pm by Nudga »

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13864 on October 11, 2021, 09:12:54 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Just came back on to say sorry to BST for my aggression, anger and vitriol in recent days. Covid has been tough for all of us for varying reasons and i have had a tough time due to the restrictions and endless micro managing of my life and never-ending bullying from the Tories. Been a really tough year mentally. No excuse for me to get abusive though. Was out of order. That's it really and won't be commenting on Covid again. Enjoy your evening all.

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13865 on October 11, 2021, 09:27:28 pm by scawsby steve »
Just came back on to say sorry to BST for my aggression, anger and vitriol in recent days. Covid has been tough for all of us for varying reasons and i have had a tough time due to the restrictions and endless micro managing of my life and never-ending bullying from the Tories. Been a really tough year mentally. No excuse for me to get abusive though. Was out of order. That's it really and won't be commenting on Covid again. Enjoy your evening all.

That's magnanimous, mate, and very dignified.

Well done.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13866 on October 11, 2021, 10:38:27 pm by selby »
Billy, read the article about the new vaccine it should give everybody hope, especially those who are share holders in AstraZeneca.

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13867 on October 11, 2021, 10:39:41 pm by Nudga »
Chris Whitty will be absolutely buzzing then.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13868 on October 11, 2021, 11:53:25 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Just came back on to say sorry to BST for my aggression, anger and vitriol in recent days. Covid has been tough for all of us for varying reasons and i have had a tough time due to the restrictions and endless micro managing of my life and never-ending bullying from the Tories. Been a really tough year mentally. No excuse for me to get abusive though. Was out of order. That's it really and won't be commenting on Covid again. Enjoy your evening all.
That's as fine a post as there's been on this thread. This has been a very tough time for everybody and it's easy to forget that. Hats off to to you.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13869 on October 12, 2021, 12:48:46 am by SydneyRover »
Just came back on to say sorry to BST for my aggression, anger and vitriol in recent days. Covid has been tough for all of us for varying reasons and i have had a tough time due to the restrictions and endless micro managing of my life and never-ending bullying from the Tories. Been a really tough year mentally. No excuse for me to get abusive though. Was out of order. That's it really and won't be commenting on Covid again. Enjoy your evening all.
That's as fine a post as there's been on this thread. This has been a very tough time for everybody and it's easy to forget that. Hats off to to you.

I can buy into that, it takes some doing to stop, think and apologise, good move CDH

Colemans Left Hook

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13870 on October 12, 2021, 01:49:43 am by Colemans Left Hook »
RD.

You might be right. But there's no sign of the Chinese national Govt covering things up. They have just sacked the head of the Communist party in Hubei province and released updated figures which (and this is the crucial thing) include a much wider definition of who is infected). Doing that first in the province most affected is logical.

It looks to me more like they are working out policy as they go, and finding some incompetent handling, than covering this up.


I always found it hard to believe the view expressed here in feb 2020 ( bottom post first page)

These comments appeared on bloomberg October 4th 2021....... Draw your own conclusions (if any)

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13871 on October 12, 2021, 03:24:48 am by SydneyRover »
You would have thought that definitive information such as that would have rocketed around the globe CLH? it's been a week.

''The Chinese province that was the initial epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak made significant purchases of equipment used to test for infectious diseases months before Beijing notified international authorities of the emergence of a new coronavirus, according to research by a cybersecurity company''

''But several medical experts said the Internet 2.0 report wasn’t enough information to draw such conclusions. For one thing, PCR testing, which has been in broad use for several decades, has been been growing in popularity as it has become a standard method to test for pathogens, according to one of the experts. In addition, PCR equipment is widely used in laboratories to test for many other pathogens beside Covid-19, including in animals, and is commonly found in modern hospitals and labs''

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/china-pcr-purchases-spiked-in-months-before-first-known-covid-cases-firm-says

PS: I could have understood it if the UK government were buying up stocks of PCR tests and PPE because they had every warning aye?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2021, 03:26:56 am by SydneyRover »

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13872 on October 12, 2021, 05:13:41 am by SydneyRover »
The papers make it pretty obvious where they want the public to look.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-58879001

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13873 on October 12, 2021, 07:45:13 am by bpoolrover »
The papers make it pretty obvious where they want the public to look.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-58879001
the report seems pretty fair at the start sage and the government were poor and it's a shame so many had to lose there lives, would anyone else have done any better I'm
Not so sure but we will never know, hopefully lessons will be learned by all

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13874 on October 12, 2021, 08:56:09 am by SydneyRover »
The papers make it pretty obvious where they want the public to look.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-58879001
the report seems pretty fair at the start sage and the government were poor and it's a shame so many had to lose there lives, would anyone else have done any better I'm
Not so sure but we will never know, hopefully lessons will be learned by all

The papers also said it was Tuesday bp

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13875 on October 12, 2021, 10:08:15 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I'm genuinely shocked at this "would anyone else have done better" idea. It shows how quickly people forget.

This isn't a hindsight thing. People all around the world were screaming at us in March 2020 that we were insane not to lockdown. We had the advantage of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the development of our outbreak. Germany, Denmark and Norway were in similar positions. All three of them locked down hard before we did in the timeline of our outbreak. All of them had far lower death rates and far less economic damage because the lockdowns were shorter.

They prove that it was relatively easy to do better than we did. The question isn't "could anyone have done better". We KNOW the answer to that is yes. The question is, why did we fail so badly to do better.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13876 on October 12, 2021, 10:50:27 am by wilts rover »
Curious coincidence that Johnson, a bloke who has never taken responsibilty for anything in his life - including the number of children he has - happens to be out of the country the day this report is released.

Ain't nobody here but us chickens.

And anyone saying what would you have done or the government couldn't have done anything different - start reading this thread from page No.1.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13877 on October 12, 2021, 10:55:25 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Not just out of the country. Staying at the luxury holiday flat of a man he put into the House of Lords after running the most disgusting racist election campaign in half a century.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13878 on October 12, 2021, 01:15:22 pm by wilts rover »
How Boris Johnson led the UK to one of its worst ever public health disasters. (Warning - statistics and actual historical evidence alert):

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1447885081339703297

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13879 on October 12, 2021, 01:24:29 pm by bpoolrover »
There were many differing views on this forum and in the media at the start, there were very few calls to lockdown before March 16th in fact I think only river don was the only one, a lot of the others thought the economic cost of it would result in as bad a loss as the virus might, most followed just like the government did at the start what vallance and witty were saying and let's be fair they couldn't do much else

Hounslowrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13880 on October 12, 2021, 02:34:23 pm by Hounslowrover »
Jonathon Ashworth, shadow health minister asked in the Commons on 11 March 2020, said that some scientists suggested we are not following the epidemiology and placing too much emphasis on behavioural science, therefore when should we move into the so-called delay stage and adopt more stringent social distancing rules. He asked the Health Secretary why UK thinking appears to differ from other European nations. So questions about lockdown were being asked.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13881 on October 12, 2021, 02:49:28 pm by bpoolrover »
Jonathon Ashworth, shadow health minister asked in the Commons on 11 March 2020, said that some scientists suggested we are not following the epidemiology and placing too much emphasis on behavioural science, therefore when should we move into the so-called delay stage and adopt more stringent social distancing rules. He asked the Health Secretary why UK thinking appears to differ from other European nations. So questions about lockdown were being asked.
I agree questions were being asked, I should have quoted wilts post when he said go back to page one on this forum sorry

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13882 on October 12, 2021, 03:06:52 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There were many differing views on this forum and in the media at the start, there were very few calls to lockdown before March 16th in fact I think only river don was the only one, a lot of the others thought the economic cost of it would result in as bad a loss as the virus might, most followed just like the government did at the start what vallance and witty were saying and let's be fair they couldn't do much else

Yes, I'll put my hand up. In late Feb, I was saying that I thought the economic cost of a lockdown would outweigh the health benefit. That's because I didn't understand the economic case of borrowing massively to pay people who were not able to work through a lockdown.

Once that idea was established, lockdown was a no brainer. And here is the real point about how badly the Govt managed that. They were told how horrific the situation was looking by 14 or 15 March. They were told that the previous estimates had underestimated the rate at which the virus was spreading, and in fact cases were doubling every 3-4 days or so. But the Govt still didn't instigate a lockdown for almost another week and a half.

Now look at the numbers. It's really simple. If a virus is doubling every 4 days and you delay action against it for 8 days, by the time you act, the problem is four times as big. Four times as many people infected. Four times as many people going to end up in hospital. Four times as many people going to die. Four times the length of time it will take you to get infections back down to manageable proportions.

THAT is the unarguable disaster. The Govt knew how bad things were going to get and they sat on their hands while the virsu ripped through the first wave. It is no exaggeration to say that inaction for a week and a bit cost us at least 20,000 avoidable deaths, and prolonged the first lockdown by months, costing us well over £100bn. That is what this MPs' report means when it says it was the biggest public health policy disaster for 100 years.

There was absolutely zero excuse for that delay. And that is not hindsight. People in here were saying it at the very time. And Government knew it, at the time.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13883 on October 12, 2021, 03:14:17 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This was 13 March 2020 by the way.
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1238573667002523648

And yes, the report does say that there were mistakes by the scientific advisers in not considering that a lockdown was possible, so not considering that. John Edmunds in that video is a perfect example.

But that doesn't absolve the Government. It was not the job of the epidemiologists to decide policy on lockdown. it was their job to predict what would happen in different scenarios, including lockdowns of various severity, or doing nothing at all. it was the job of Govt then to decide policy.

Advisers advise, Ministers decide, as Thatcher once said.

As the report says today and as I've said on many occasions in here, it is beyond belief that, if in early March, the epidemiologists were warning that 500,000 might die before the Summer (and they were warning that) that no-one in Government ever said "Hang on. Is there absolutely nothing we can do about that? Do we just accept that scale of carnage?"

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13884 on October 12, 2021, 03:18:27 pm by bpoolrover »
Bst you changed your mind on just about everything at the start from locking down to herd immunity to closing borders all them 3 things you got wrong and at a guess you got that from the people that were advising the government, saying that yes they have made big mistakes

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13885 on October 12, 2021, 03:54:54 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Bpool.
Yep. I did change my mind. Because I've never lived through a pandemic before and I was on a crash course of learning about it as much as anyone else. Ideas get tested out, checked against the facts and accepted or changed very rapidly in that situation.

I was trying to get some understanding of what was going on, while working 70 hours a week to secure my business before what I saw was a coming catastrophe. And yeah, I got a lot of things wrong. This is the biggest one.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=275849.360
That was because at that time, I didn't understand the concept of furlough. I assumed that if we had a six month lockdown, it would mean 10-15million people chucked on the dole for 6 months.

The epiphany for me was a) seeing that lockdown in Italy was working, b) hearing about the concept of furlough, then c) reading this around 20 March https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

From that moment it was blindingly obvious that lockdown was a) possible and b) necessary. But I'm an amateur. And I could see by about 20 March that lockdown was the obvious policy. What the f**k was the Govt doing, not seeing this earlier and in fact, not implementing it until 4 days later?

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13886 on October 12, 2021, 04:26:39 pm by bpoolrover »
Agree with that bst they for sure should have locked down 4 days before, for me they have a lot to answer for over the first year, holding Cheltenham festival was a joke as well, but after that I do think they have got things pretty much right but unfortunately that won't be any conciliation to the families that lost people

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13887 on October 12, 2021, 04:50:34 pm by wilts rover »
There were many differing views on this forum and in the media at the start, there were very few calls to lockdown before March 16th in fact I think only river don was the only one, a lot of the others thought the economic cost of it would result in as bad a loss as the virus might, most followed just like the government did at the start what vallance and witty were saying and let's be fair they couldn't do much else

You are correct bpool - there were many different views and some of us certainly said they could do things very differently. Like tell the truth.

And you think they got the second and third lockdowns right - when they knew exactly how deadly it was? Really?

They were prepared to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people to their mad herd immunity.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13888 on October 12, 2021, 04:57:26 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Good news and bad news in this assessment of the current cases by age group.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_7JAa-VQAQZmpU?format=jpg&name=medium

Clearly there has been a sharp drop in cases in most age groups since the start of September. As such we should probably expect an equally sharp fall in daily deaths over the next fortnight, hopefully down to below 100 per day which is where they have been now for a month. That all ties in with the sharp drop in daily hospitalisations over the last week or two. That is all very welcome news.

Concerning thing is that it looks like cases in schoolkids have rocketed again after the start of term. I heard the other day that 1 in  8 kids are currently off school with COVID. And that graph suggests that, as previously, those cases are now spreading out into a rise in cases among other age groups. So that would imply that hospital cases would likely start rising again around the end of the month, and deaths around mid-October. Question now is how long this increase in cases goes on for. If it carries on through October, and increases with University students going back to college, the hospital cases and deaths are likely to be rising sharply through November, just as we go into the flu season.

Pretty much exactly what has happened.

Daily deaths did drop sharply, from about 140 per day to under 110. But that fall ran out of steam last week and it looks like daily death numbers are rising again.

Which is a concern, because over the past three weeks, case numbers have been consistently rising and are now back around 40,000 new positives per day. And hospital admissions which fell quickly at the end of last month are also starting to rise again. All of which means it looks baked in that the daily deaths are going to be back up around 140-150 per day, and new hospitalisations back up pushing 1000 per day by early November. Just as the flu season gets going.

I get a feeling this is going to be another bloody rough winter for the NHS.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13889 on October 12, 2021, 04:59:06 pm by Bentley Bullet »
On the 16th of March, the PM said “now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact and travel.” So, although it wasn't an official start to lockdown on that date it was a message that strongly advised caution.

 

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