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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 584691 times)

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bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14070 on October 20, 2021, 06:40:11 pm by bpoolrover »
Blackpool,

In the UK, 75% of those vaxxed have not had their booster yet. We know that immunity weakens over time, so getting the extra jab is important before winter sets in.

Pud,

Scotland is colder than England, so activities move indoors earlier.
One factor to be considered.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, so the infections recorded now will translate into higher losses in November.
That is why we are getting the early warning siren now!
I get that mate I did edit my post but should have gone into more detail really



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Nudga

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14072 on October 20, 2021, 08:08:54 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Between January and July there were around 50k covid deaths 640 were fully vaccinated, if that trend has carried on which I can't find at the min should we really need extra measures?of course many were not fully vaccinated then and the numbers won't be the same

It's very unlikely to carry on until we get boosters into arms, because the vaccine effect is waning quickly.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14073 on October 20, 2021, 10:28:14 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
BFYP.

I don't know the ins and outs of every country's actions, but  England clearly has one of the most open, laissez-faire approaches. And the tone of the message from the leaders matters too. Our Govt has given a business as usual tone for months. In Scotland they have a mask mandate and vaccine passports. And their infection rate is a fraction of ours and falling. Draw your own conclusions.

You say we keep hearing it will be a disaster in the NHS. Winter is fast approaching and there are hospitals with virtually every ICU bed taken up by COVID patients. At the very, very least the NHS is streteched and has been stretched for months, well before the inevitable Winter problems.

Meanwhile, today's figures show that the rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths continues apace...


It's a poor conclusion though isn't it? They have those mandated in Wales they have a higher case rate.  So it's not quite that simple is it?

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14074 on October 20, 2021, 10:31:38 pm by SydneyRover »
The thing is, from a graph looking from the the date of ''freedom day'' it can be easily seen where the trend goes, it's not difficult to make the connection is it.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14075 on October 21, 2021, 12:01:04 am by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP.

I don't know the ins and outs of every country's actions, but  England clearly has one of the most open, laissez-faire approaches. And the tone of the message from the leaders matters too. Our Govt has given a business as usual tone for months. In Scotland they have a mask mandate and vaccine passports. And their infection rate is a fraction of ours and falling. Draw your own conclusions.

You say we keep hearing it will be a disaster in the NHS. Winter is fast approaching and there are hospitals with virtually every ICU bed taken up by COVID patients. At the very, very least the NHS is streteched and has been stretched for months, well before the inevitable Winter problems.

Meanwhile, today's figures show that the rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths continues apace...


It's a poor conclusion though isn't it? They have those mandated in Wales they have a higher case rate.  So it's not quite that simple is it?
No I agree there's no magic bullet. But it is about marginal gains and the whole message.

If you send a message, spoken or unspoken that you can be relaxed about the spread, then it's obvious that many people will follow that message.

At some point, you have to ask the question of why we have both very high cases and deaths AND very high economic losses, compared to many of  our European neighbours.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14076 on October 21, 2021, 07:44:11 am by Bentley Bullet »
Having the busiest airport in Europe didn't help.

no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14077 on October 21, 2021, 08:11:10 am by no eyed deer »
BFYP.

I don't know the ins and outs of every country's actions, but  England clearly has one of the most open, laissez-faire approaches. And the tone of the message from the leaders matters too. Our Govt has given a business as usual tone for months. In Scotland they have a mask mandate and vaccine passports. And their infection rate is a fraction of ours and falling. Draw your own conclusions.

You say we keep hearing it will be a disaster in the NHS. Winter is fast approaching and there are hospitals with virtually every ICU bed taken up by COVID patients. At the very, very least the NHS is streteched and has been stretched for months, well before the inevitable Winter problems.

Meanwhile, today's figures show that the rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths continues apace...


It's a poor conclusion though isn't it? They have those mandated in Wales they have a higher case rate.  So it's not quite that simple is it?
No I agree there's no magic bullet. But it is about marginal gains and the whole message.

If you send a message, spoken or unspoken that you can be relaxed about the spread, then it's obvious that many people will follow that message.

At some point, you have to ask the question of why we have both very high cases and deaths AND very high economic losses, compared to many of  our European neighbours.

I thought the vaccine was the andwer ?

Axholme Lion

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14078 on October 21, 2021, 08:31:43 am by Axholme Lion »
Heard on radio this morning the average age of a person contracting covid is 22. I'm due for my booster next month so i don't see why i should be concerned if the younger generation want to ignore all the advice because they think they are immune and will live for ever.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14079 on October 21, 2021, 09:44:30 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Average.  With the under 16s dwarfing the figures it will create a lower average. By definition that means plenty of older persons are obtaining the virus.

Ldr

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Axholme Lion

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14081 on October 21, 2021, 11:43:23 am by Axholme Lion »
Lock up the young. Winner all round.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14082 on October 21, 2021, 05:12:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

Figure 4 (around half way down the page)

That's all well and good, but come out of the weeds and look at the big picture.

New cases have been rising steadily for a month and recently have been doing so at a rate of a doubling every 30 days.

If that was driven primarily by schoolkids, we'd see little change in hospital cases or deaths.

But both of those figures are now climbing at the same rate.

At the moment, there is a clear and firm link between the rise in cases and the rise in bad outcomes. Problem comes if we don't take action to halt the rise in cases and that link stays. Then we are in big trouble by the middle of next month.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14083 on October 21, 2021, 05:35:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
50k cases a day
Pushing 1000 of those a day ending up in hospital
130 deaths a day and rising.

And here's Rees-Mogg smirking when asked why the Tories won't set an example about taking this seriously.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58993387

How the f**k does he sleep at night?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14084 on October 21, 2021, 05:36:27 pm by River Don »
An expert on R5 live the other morning claimed around 50 a week in the UK are dying despite being double jabbed.

He blamed it on the slow roll out of the booster, with some over 70s going well beyond six months and also complacency in that age group. Many feel being double jabbed is enough.


River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14085 on October 21, 2021, 05:39:30 pm by River Don »
There is also the problem that allowing the virus to circulate as widely as we are doing, it is creating more opportunities for variations to emerge.

Hello Delta Plus. 10% to 15% more infectious they think.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14086 on October 21, 2021, 05:39:57 pm by wilts rover »
Exclusive - Government's Covid Plans leaked:


River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14087 on October 21, 2021, 05:43:55 pm by River Don »
I accept it's not straightforward by any means.

An industry spokesman said another missed Christmas holiday season in hospitality will absolutely crush the sector.

To me though, in not acting quickly now and bringing in Plan B, mask wearing and social distancing, then the risk of lockdown during the festive period is so much greater.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14088 on October 21, 2021, 05:56:23 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I accept it's not straightforward by any means.

An industry spokesman said another missed Christmas holiday season in hospitality will absolutely crush the sector.

To me though, in not acting quickly now and bringing in Plan B, mask wearing and social distancing, then the risk of lockdown during the festive period is so much greater.

There is nothing more certain to f**k up the Xmas season than to let this wave keep on increasing. But that appears to be current policy. Javid said in yesterday's briefing that cases could go to 100,000 per day and he said in the same breath that there is no intention of changing policy.

If cases do hit 100,000 per day, we'll be looking at 20,000 in hospital and 250-300 a day dying. And I KNOW I made that point in July and I KNOW that cases fell then. But we haven't got all the advantages of summer right now. There might be some respite in the numbers in next week's half term, but then we've got weeks of most of us being indoors in perfect conditions for the spread to continue.

And Ree-Mogg is smirking when asked why his MPs won't set an example.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14089 on October 21, 2021, 05:58:58 pm by bpoolrover »
Kier starmer has sat in parliament without a mask to but I've not heard you slag him off

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14090 on October 21, 2021, 06:12:00 pm by Filo »
Kier starmer has sat in parliament without a mask to but I've not heard you slag him off

Starmer should wear a mask, as should all MP’s, but like it or not the Conservatives are the Government and decision makers, regardless of what other parties do the Government should be setting an example, not openly and collectively ignoring the advice they give to the general public

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14091 on October 21, 2021, 06:17:26 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Kier starmer has sat in parliament without a mask to but I've not heard you slag him off

He takes his mask off to speak at PMQs. He wears it at other times.

If he regularly sat in Parliament without a mask, I WOULD slag him off.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14092 on October 21, 2021, 06:19:33 pm by bpoolrover »
Kier starmer has sat in parliament without a mask to but I've not heard you slag him off

Starmer should wear a mask, as should all MP’s, but like it or not the Conservatives are the Government and decision makers, regardless of what other parties do the Government should be setting an example, not openly and collectively ignoring the advice they give to the general public
if I was them I would wear a mask but it is not required to do so, Wales have mandatory mask wearing and some of the worst covid rates in the U.K., wearing a mask and having no other restrictions in just won't make a difference

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14093 on October 21, 2021, 06:20:40 pm by bpoolrover »

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14094 on October 21, 2021, 06:28:58 pm by Bentley Bullet »
I accept it's not straightforward by any means.

An industry spokesman said another missed Christmas holiday season in hospitality will absolutely crush the sector.

To me though, in not acting quickly now and bringing in Plan B, mask wearing and social distancing, then the risk of lockdown during the festive period is so much greater.

Mask wearing and social distancing has never been taken out.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14095 on October 21, 2021, 06:39:33 pm by River Don »
I accept it's not straightforward by any means.

An industry spokesman said another missed Christmas holiday season in hospitality will absolutely crush the sector.

To me though, in not acting quickly now and bringing in Plan B, mask wearing and social distancing, then the risk of lockdown during the festive period is so much greater.

Mask wearing and social distancing has never been taken out.

No but in most settings it is discretionary. Which in practice means it is as good as taken out.

Through this crisis the simple lesson has been act fast and hard. And throughout the government have always delayed and taken a wait and see approach. It's happening all over again.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14096 on October 21, 2021, 06:49:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
On 14 September, Patrick Vallance said that his advice was that we should act fast and act hard if cases started rising seriously.

Clearly we are no longer following the scientific advice.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14097 on October 21, 2021, 06:52:24 pm by bpoolrover »
They also had predicted 100k cases and were only half that

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14098 on October 21, 2021, 06:53:49 pm by bpoolrover »
No opinion on starmer not wearing a mask as the independent article does not mention him wearing it when he was not talking?

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14099 on October 21, 2021, 07:03:30 pm by Bentley Bullet »
If the government had locked down in July when it was last demanded by many to do so, that lockdown would have been considered a success and people would have said that the figures were reduced because of it, and it proved to be the necessary thing to do.

It is only in hindsight that we can now say that not going into lockdown then was the right thing to do.

 

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