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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 429205 times)

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drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14130 on October 22, 2021, 10:10:28 am by drfchound »
Me thinks he was being sarcastic.




So do I.
I will be surprised if he gets an apology.



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Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14131 on October 22, 2021, 10:18:37 am by Ldr »
Private healthcare doesn't work very well when it comes to A&E.

It's not a service they can easily provide.

Yep that's the thing about private healthcare, they want young people to sign up that don't really need it and do the easy stuff. If the NHS had been properly funded for the past 11 years ...................

Money not the major problem, there is too many layers of middlemen and unneeded admin. Just this month there Have been 3 new national mandated datasets need creating despite data already flowing centrally.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14132 on October 22, 2021, 10:46:45 am by Filo »
That sounds terrible Nudga, that must be the case for everyone who arrives at A&E. The sooner we privatise the whole NHS the better, let’s make it so those chavs can’t afford to visit a hospital via. Extortionate Health insurance. That way those of us who can afford it can happily be seen 20 mins earlier.

When I lived in Donny, every time I went to A&E I had to wait 3/4 hours to be seen. I assumed that was the norm, limited doctors and nurses out of hours who probably have very sick patients in the hospital to look after as well. My sister worked for a year in A&E said it was the horrific, nobody wants that gig, and the problem won’t have got any better during a pandemic. Which we are still in, even if certain elected officials prefer to think it’s not.

So what about those that are n’t chavs, but are on low income and can’t afford private health insurance, where do they fit in, in your grand master plan? Are they expendable because they are poor? Your comments are an insult to everyone on minimum wage and zero hour contracts, typical selfish attitude

Apologies, my sarcasm was slightly veiled. I’m not a proponent of privatising health care. Anything but, we still have one of the best health care systems in the world, but granted there is always room for improvement, providing adequate funding would be a start I’d guess.

Accepted, perhaps my ability to spot sarcasm is waining as I get older

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14133 on October 22, 2021, 11:00:44 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Very sorry to hear about your missus's accident Nudga I hope she's OK.

regarding your Twitter post, the man's affiliations mean nothing if he writes bad science. That's how science works - not  authority because of job title - on whether what you claim actually stacks up.

Carl Heneghan is  a Professor at Oxford, but it didn't stop him writing THE most disgraceful media article of the entire epidemic last year. He wrote for the Spectator that a huge Danish trial had categorically proved that masks didn't have any effect on spreading the virus, when in the very technical paper that he quoted, the authors clearly and unambiguosuly said that was NOT what they were saying.

In my own professional life, I've had an example of a very eminent Cambridge Professor giving a presentation at a conference where he referenced some of my own work and said my work showed the absolute opposite of what it actually did.

So your man's position means f**k all. Wat matters is whether his arguments stack up.

On that issue, his very first "myth" is a warning sign. Absolutely no-one is claiming that the UK has the worst COVID numbers in Europe. That's a classic disinformation tactic. You set up a strawman argument first, which you can, correctly, knock down with facts. That's designed to give credence once you start with the false narrative.

That starts with his Myth 2. He says that the idea that locking down late in the first wave cost thousands of lives is wrong because most of the countries that locked down early in the first wave had bad second waves. But there is absolutely no cause and effect there. They didn't have bad second waves BECAUSE they locked down early in the first wave. They had bad second waves because they f**ked up management of the second wave. His claim there is simply shockingly bad science.

Myth 4 is even worse. He says that you can only compare positivity rates of tests to see how bad the epidemic is in different countries. This is such bad science it is beyond words. You can only do that if you are testing a representative sample of the population. But many of the people who have COVID tests are having them because they have COVID symptoms. So the sample is self-selecting. The claim he is making here would fail him in any undergraduate course on statistics. At this point, he has lost any credibility as an impartial scientific observer.

Keep on believing this bullshit if you want Nudga, but you are being played by people who claim scientific authority but are writing stuff that any scientist would not even wipe their arse on. The fascinating question is why people like him, and Heneghan and Sikora are doing it. What is their motive?

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14134 on October 22, 2021, 12:25:16 pm by bpoolrover »
At this point NED nobody is wanting another lockdown.

The hope is that reintroducing simple restrictions like mask wearing will make any lockdown unnecessary. That the numbers getting sick might fall.

Javid, I suspect is already calculating that hospital admissions will not grow sufficiently to force a lockdown.

In the meantime he doesn't care if thousands become sick, always risking the emergence of new varients. Or God knows how many suffer the debilitating effects of long Covid. Or if a thousand odd die each week. He's just about ensuring business as usual prevails, even if the restrictions proposed will not have any economic impacts.

It's just blinkered libertarian ideology. "We've got to live with it." He's out to make sure we do and he doesn't care about the human cost.
could you explain why simple mask wearing is not working in Wales? Yet you think it will stop lockdown in England?

I don't know what's going on in Wales, they seem to have had a more difficult time of it despite taking a more cautious approach.

In France, continued strictly enforced measures are pushing their Covid rates a lot lower than the UK.

Getting away from the whatabouttery, I don't think there is any serious dispute that widespread mask wearing will slow down the spread of respiratory diseases.
that's because francs had other measures in with mask wearing, they had the vaccine passports,and there cases are 10 percent up on last week so will need to follow that

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14135 on October 22, 2021, 01:34:33 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The problem is though there are contrasting results with similar strategies. Our cases dwarf Denmark, similar restrictions.  Wales has tighter rules than Denmark and England, more cases.  It's inconsistent and you can see the points are able to be made.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14136 on October 22, 2021, 02:18:45 pm by bpoolrover »
I think a lot is also about how people act, I was in Spain and they were more than happy to sit outside a cafe bar till past midnight where the brits wanted to party and dance

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14137 on October 22, 2021, 05:06:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP
You make an excellent point comparing us to Denmark.

They are a textbook case for how we COULD have controlled this virus. They locked down hard and early in March 2020 and December 2021. They never let the virus get as widespread as we did. So when they relaxed controls this summer, they were doing so from a position in which they had most people vaccinated AND the virus cases were at  very low levels.

They have actually seen virus cases double over the past month - that's a faster increase than here. But they started from a level of  new daily infections of about 5 per 100,000, whereas our latest surge started from a base of about 45 per 100,00. Because we hadn't taken steps to control the virus back in April and May. So, Denmark has a lot of headroom to assess how this current outbreak is going, and decide whether to bring back new restrictions gently. Whereas we are once again sprinting into an impending crisis doing the 3 monkeys trick.

This was my point back in July by the way. That we were taking a huge gamble in effectively giving up on truing to control the virus and going for a policy of Herd Immunity Before Winter. That was always a gamble, as opposed to keeping moderate restrictions and trying to get cases slowly down before Winter. The question I posed at the time was: what happens if we DON'T get HI by the Winter. Unfortunately, it now looks like we are about to find out...

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14138 on October 22, 2021, 07:56:58 pm by Nudga »
Thank you for all your concern with regards my wife.

She basically fell over with a great big log in her hands and hit the deck with the log smashing her thumb.
I make no exaggeration when i say that the top of her thumb exploded with the impact.
Nail clean off, bones fragments and a chod of skin missing.
Surgeon has cleaned it up best they can for now and review in 10 days with possibility of amputation.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14139 on October 22, 2021, 08:05:00 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
f**k that sounds awful. Best of luck to her.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14140 on October 22, 2021, 09:13:32 pm by bpoolrover »
Germany cases are surging, 19k and they still have masks and vaccine passports, strange how it affects countries differently

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14141 on October 23, 2021, 09:33:15 am by wilts rover »
The Immensa scandal - why unregulated private health companies should not be allowed to run public health services:

https://twitter.com/alanmcn1/status/1451804781492768771

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14142 on October 23, 2021, 09:41:32 am by wilts rover »
Just catching up with the thread and sorry to hear about Mrs Nudga - all the best for a full recovery.

Unfortunately this is the result of what happens when you close A&E units, reduce hospital bed numbers, reduce the number of doctors and nurses - and allow a deadly virus to infect people unchecked. What services there are become overwhelmed.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14143 on October 23, 2021, 09:51:06 am by ravenrover »
Things like this rise over petty squabbles on a forum. Best wishes to you missus Nudga

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14144 on October 23, 2021, 11:13:37 am by Nudga »
Thank you fellas

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14145 on October 23, 2021, 11:50:43 am by Ldr »
Echo the best wishes to your missus Nudga

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14146 on October 24, 2021, 04:42:05 pm by bpoolrover »
39k cases today will be interesting next few days numbers as that is down 6k on last Sunday

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14147 on October 24, 2021, 06:10:47 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The interesting thing is there is a clear regional variation around the SW of England and Wales.  Something different is happening there.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14148 on October 24, 2021, 06:28:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14149 on October 24, 2021, 06:31:19 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
39k cases today will be interesting next few days numbers as that is down 6k on last Sunday
We'd expect a slowdown due to half term. Hopefully the numbers come down sharply this week. We need them to because hospitalisations are rising very quickly at the moment.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14150 on October 24, 2021, 06:36:26 pm by bpoolrover »
Yes but we're not even into half term yet, but agree we need the numbers down

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14151 on October 25, 2021, 11:59:41 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

Yep appears to be the case, so makes the daily case reporting largely meaningless.  It also likely means the spread much wider because of the positive going out and about.

Interesting that some models believe cases will shortly drop massively.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14152 on October 25, 2021, 12:27:06 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

Yep appears to be the case, so makes the daily case reporting largely meaningless.  It also likely means the spread much wider because of the positive going out and about.

Interesting that some models believe cases will shortly drop massively.

Doesn't really make the daily figures meaningless. There were 43000 affected results. Even if all those were now returned as +ves in one day, it would only increase the 7 day average by 14% for one week, then it would drop out of the numbers. The recent rise had been higher and more sustained than that.

As for cases falling soon, let's very much hope so. I haven't seen those figures and I must admit I've lost touch with where we are supposed to be on HI.

The huge worry is still the rapid drop in efficacy of the AZ vaccine after 5 months and the sluggish booster program. I've a very personal interest in this. I'm in one of the top 9 vulnerable groups and I had my 2nd AZ dose in mid-May. I've heard nothing yet about eligibility for a booster.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14153 on October 25, 2021, 12:43:22 pm by bpoolrover »
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

Yep appears to be the case, so makes the daily case reporting largely meaningless.  It also likely means the spread much wider because of the positive going out and about.

Interesting that some models believe cases will shortly drop massively.

Doesn't really make the daily figures meaningless. There were 43000 affected results. Even if all those were now returned as +ves in one day, it would only increase the 7 day average by 14% for one week, then it would drop out of the numbers. The recent rise had been higher and more sustained than that.

As for cases falling soon, let's very much hope so. I haven't seen those figures and I must admit I've lost touch with where we are supposed to be on HI.

The huge worry is still the rapid drop in efficacy of the AZ vaccine after 5 months and the sluggish booster program. I've a very personal interest in this. I'm in one of the top 9 vulnerable groups and I had my 2nd AZ dose in mid-May. I've heard nothing yet about eligibility for a booster.
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

Yep appears to be the case, so makes the daily case reporting largely meaningless.  It also likely means the spread much wider because of the positive going out and about.

Interesting that some models believe cases will shortly drop massively.

Doesn't really make the daily figures meaningless. There were 43000 affected results. Even if all those were now returned as +ves in one day, it would only increase the 7 day average by 14% for one week, then it would drop out of the numbers. The recent rise had been higher and more sustained than that.

As for cases falling soon, let's very much hope so. I haven't seen those figures and I must admit I've lost touch with where we are supposed to be on HI.

The huge worry is still the rapid drop in efficacy of the AZ vaccine after 5 months and the sluggish booster program. I've a very personal interest in this. I'm in one of the top 9 vulnerable groups and I had my 2nd AZ dose in mid-May. I've heard nothing yet about eligibility for a booster.
soon as you are eligible just go online and book one in

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14154 on October 25, 2021, 02:56:32 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Bpool

Thanks I didn't know that.

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14155 on October 25, 2021, 03:20:29 pm by normal rules »
I took my 75 yr old mother in law for hers last sat morning. There were some there that just turned up with no booking. They were not turning anyone away.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14156 on October 25, 2021, 03:22:23 pm by bpoolrover »
Bpool

Thanks I didn't know that.
Bpool

Thanks I didn't know that.
think it's new up from Monday mate

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14157 on October 25, 2021, 03:52:54 pm by wilts rover »
For those people asking - this is the info from Wiltshire Council's weekly newsletter (22nd Otober):

Latest Wiltshire COVID-19 cases

The number of cases in Wiltshire has increased steeply this week, with 4,529 confirmed positive cases in the last seven days. The rate of cases per 100,000 in Wiltshire has increased from 379.5 to 789.6, which is much higher than the current case rate in England of 455.7 (gov.uk data as of 22/10/2021 at 1.10pm).

So no - the false negatives from previous weeks have not been added to our figures. What is being reported now is the true case numbers in the south-west and in the country from 15th October onwards - what we had from mid-September onwards was an artifically low figure and we will never know the true number.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14158 on October 25, 2021, 05:03:45 pm by bpoolrover »
36k new cases today so again a decent fall in them

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14159 on October 25, 2021, 06:21:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
36k new cases today so again a decent fall in them

Definitely looks like a real drop in cases. In fact it looks remarkably like what happened in late July - a fast increase in cases suddenly (in fact pretty much overnight) flipping to an equally fast fall.

Common denominator must be schools breaking up. Both times the peak in the seven day average of new cases has come 2-3 days before the first day of the school holidays. Maybe they aren't testing as frequently bin the last few days before the holidays?

 

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