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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 429076 times)

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bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14160 on October 25, 2021, 06:37:05 pm by bpoolrover »
36k new cases today so again a decent fall in them

Definitely looks like a real drop in cases. In fact it looks remarkably like what happened in late July - a fast increase in cases suddenly (in fact pretty much overnight) flipping to an equally fast fall.

Common denominator must be schools breaking up. Both times the peak in the seven day average of new cases has come 2-3 days before the first day of the school holidays. Maybe they aren't testing as frequently bin the last few days before the holidays?
possibly yes the only way to tell will be hospitalisations and deaths in a couple of weeks



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River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14161 on October 25, 2021, 07:27:20 pm by River Don »
SW is where the Immensa f**k up happened. I wonder if they are catching up old positive results that were originally reported wrongly as negative.

Yep appears to be the case, so makes the daily case reporting largely meaningless.  It also likely means the spread much wider because of the positive going out and about.

Interesting that some models believe cases will shortly drop massively.

Doesn't really make the daily figures meaningless. There were 43000 affected results. Even if all those were now returned as +ves in one day, it would only increase the 7 day average by 14% for one week, then it would drop out of the numbers. The recent rise had been higher and more sustained than that.

As for cases falling soon, let's very much hope so. I haven't seen those figures and I must admit I've lost touch with where we are supposed to be on HI.

The huge worry is still the rapid drop in efficacy of the AZ vaccine after 5 months and the sluggish booster program. I've a very personal interest in this. I'm in one of the top 9 vulnerable groups and I had my 2nd AZ dose in mid-May. I've heard nothing yet about eligibility for a booster.

I shouldn't be too concerned. Our local community hall have Covid inoculation most weekends. I expect it's the same close to you.

I was walking by with my Mum and we knew she was about 6 months in, so we asked they got it done there and then.

We hadn't recieved a letter or anything.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14162 on October 25, 2021, 07:41:43 pm by drfchound »
Most reminders are going out to people around six months after their second jab.
Anyone who had their second jab in mid May should get a booster invitation around mid November.
Our surgery provides a link from which it is easy to book a suitable slot.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14163 on October 25, 2021, 10:39:43 pm by SydneyRover »
The government doesn't appear to be following the experts on this .............

''False Covid test results not cause of surge in south-west England, says No 10
Government suggests current sharp rise is linked to previous lower rates in region rather than Wolverhampton lab errors''

''Asked later what the government was doing to hold Immensa to account, Johnson’s spokesperson said they were not aware of any specific plans to do so beyond the details of the contract. He added: “I’m not aware that specific issue is solely responsible for the uptick in case rates we’ve seen in the south-west region.”''

''Dr Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Bath, said it was “inconceivable that telling 43,000 people they were negative when in fact they were positive, making them believe they could safely go in to schools and workplaces where they may have infected others, did not have an impact the prevalence of Covid in the south-west … In part we may be seeing the impact of people who were given the false negatives being asked to retest and finally appearing in the figures''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/25/false-covid-test-results-not-cause-of-surge-south-west-england-says-no-10

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14164 on October 25, 2021, 11:44:47 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Today's promising drop in cases wasn't quite as hopeful as it first seemed. Figures was Wales weren't included, which would add another 4000-ish to the total. Fingers crossed the drop continues this week.

roversontheup

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14165 on October 26, 2021, 08:40:02 am by roversontheup »
BST...
The huge worry is still the rapid drop in efficacy of the AZ vaccine after 5 months and the sluggish booster program. I've a very personal interest in this. I'm in one of the top 9 vulnerable groups and I had my 2nd AZ dose in mid-May. I've heard nothing yet about eligibility for a booster.

If it offers any comfort I’m 65 and had my second AZ jab in early May. When I had my latest monthly ONS antibody blood test a couple of weeks ago (5 months after jab) it still came back Positive for antibodies. The ONS literature says to get a positive reading you have to have same antibody level as someone ill in hospital with Covid. So although I expect it to start dropping now I still have good levels of antibodies.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14166 on October 26, 2021, 09:10:46 am by bpoolrover »

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14167 on October 26, 2021, 04:05:36 pm by Filo »
Todays figure will be false if they add yesterdays Wales figure on


drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14169 on October 26, 2021, 04:39:02 pm by drfchound »
https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/10/26/dont-bash-britain-over-high-covid-cases-says-oxford-vaccine-creator/?outputType=amp Interesting read





It is an interesting read bpool and some of those points have been put forward on this forum but have been cast aside as ridiculous by other posters.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14170 on October 26, 2021, 05:29:50 pm by Bentley Bullet »
....and it will STILL be cast aside as ridiculous by other posters.

Watch this space!

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14171 on October 26, 2021, 05:40:19 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/10/26/dont-bash-britain-over-high-covid-cases-says-oxford-vaccine-creator/?outputType=amp Interesting read
I entirely agree with him that you can't just compare top line positive test numbers between countries. And it some ways, it doesn't even matter how many cases you have - what matters is how many people take up hospital beds and how many people die.

So it's odd that he doesn't go onto the next level and talk about deaths associated with COVID cases. Because there, we are running something like 3-5x higher than comparable Western European countries. Which clearly shows that we have a significantly worse current situation than Germany, France, Italy or Spain.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14172 on October 26, 2021, 05:57:36 pm by wilts rover »
https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/10/26/dont-bash-britain-over-high-covid-cases-says-oxford-vaccine-creator/?outputType=amp Interesting read





It is an interesting read bpool and some of those points have been put forward on this forum but have been cast aside as ridiculous by other posters.

Yes, agreed, quite an interesting read. He does however forget to mention that most other European countries still have restrictions in place, compulsory mask wearing, covid passports, etc - so perhaphs that is why they are seeing lower numbers?

In other unrelated news:

The House of Commons has just updated its guidance on masks. Now mandatory for all staff, contractors, press and all other third parties while on the estate... but still not MPs. Begs the question, why not?

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1453024833047089160

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14173 on October 26, 2021, 06:35:01 pm by bpoolrover »
https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/10/26/dont-bash-britain-over-high-covid-cases-says-oxford-vaccine-creator/?outputType=amp Interesting read





It is an interesting read bpool and some of those points have been put forward on this forum but have been cast aside as ridiculous by other posters.

Yes, agreed, quite an interesting read. He does however forget to mention that most other European countries still have restrictions in place, compulsory mask wearing, covid passports, etc - so perhaphs that is why they are seeing lower numbers?

In other unrelated news:

The House of Commons has just updated its guidance on masks. Now mandatory for all staff, contractors, press and all other third parties while on the estate... but still not MPs. Begs the question, why not?

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1453024833047089160

If you bring back mask wearing what restrictions do you think they should bring back in? Masks alone won't work as Wales has shown and Germany, you will need limit numbers in pubs and football stadiums to start with

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14174 on October 28, 2021, 02:11:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Well here's a thing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1453471813871325184

Statistical evidence that the rate of death FROM NON-COVID CAUSES in people who have been vaccinated is only 1/3rd as high as those who haven't been vaccinated.

I'm guessing it's because anybody stupid enough to refuse a vaccine has trouble surviving in a world where there are sharp things and electricity.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2021, 03:48:27 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14175 on October 28, 2021, 03:22:55 pm by bpoolrover »
Well here's a thing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1453471813871325184

Statistical evidence that the rate of death FROM NON-COVID CAUSES in people who have been vaccinated is only 1/3rd as high as those you haven't been vaccinated.

I'm guessing it's because anybody stupid enough to refuse a vaccine has trouble surviving in a world where there are sharp things and electricity.
quite agree can't understand it, you would think it much easier to track your mobile ect than put a microchip in everyone lol

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14176 on October 29, 2021, 03:31:53 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
We've really needed good journalism in this crisis, to properly inform people.

The BBC had for the most part been a f**king disaster. I put in a complaint about Nick Triggle's shockingly inaccurate reporting on the effectiveness of vaccines and in fairness they did correct some of his errors.

But here we are again.

"Six million people in England have received a Covid-19 booster vaccine, six weeks after the programme launched, NHS England says.

More than half of over-50s, who are eligible to receive the jab, have had their booster."

So everything's going fine with the boosters then, eh?


But think what that means. Some unspecified number, presumably close to half, of all eligible over 50 year olds haven't had a booster. That's something like 5million of the most vulnerable people now having reduced protection, while the virus rages and one person in 50 now has it.

The BBC should be screaming out this analysis, to encourage people to get boosters, to kick the arses of those in charge to improve the booster programme and to impress on people the dangervof this situation.

But no. Just shit vanilla reporting.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14177 on October 29, 2021, 04:08:40 pm by bpoolrover »
I agree there is not the same urgency to get the booster as with the original vaccines, when by the numbers in hospital it is so important as the age range is creeping up

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14178 on October 29, 2021, 07:43:26 pm by BigH »
It doesn't help that many of the industrial-scale vaccination centres have been disbanded.


wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14179 on October 30, 2021, 10:19:22 am by wilts rover »
Wonder how long it will be before drinking camel's milk replaces de-worming remedy as the new miracle cure? Get in there first - no need to thank me...

Camel nanobodies broadly neutralize SARS-CoV-2 variants

https://twitter.com/mi6rogue/status/1454270089570631686

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14180 on October 30, 2021, 11:31:58 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »
As soon as people realize and accept that it is ok to unwittingly spread Covid to others, then the sooner this insanity will end.

That is what the vaccine is for. So that we can have no restrictions and to protect the person exposed to the virus.

Now it seems that the norm is to get everyone vaccinated and STILL live like we want to avoid catching it by still having restrictions.  :suicide:
« Last Edit: October 30, 2021, 11:37:43 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14181 on November 01, 2021, 07:18:51 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Meanwhile, the brief drop in new cases from half term is over and cases are rising again. And daily deaths are rising remorselessly. The equivalent of half a dozen 737s falling out of the sky every week. Imagine what the uproar would be if that happened. But we can have that many people a week die from COVID and still there's a strain of indignant selfishness in the country that means millions of people won't even put a f**king mask on.

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14182 on November 01, 2021, 08:02:33 pm by normal rules »
* deaths for any reason within 28 days of a positive test.


Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14183 on November 01, 2021, 08:06:50 pm by Nudga »
Those vaccines working a treat then eh. I have some magic beans for sale.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14184 on November 01, 2021, 08:46:33 pm by SydneyRover »
I'll post it again, for any with comprehension exemptions

From the BMJ:

''“People are not dying from, but with, covid-19.” “Deaths classified as from covid-19 result from largely false positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results,” “deaths are mostly from other causes and underlying conditions,” “death numbers are grossly inflated,” “there is no excess mortality compared with other years or months,” and this is “no different from a normal flu season.”

Let’s see, shall we?

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the total number of deaths with covid-19 recorded on the death certificate in England and Wales has now passed 100 000.1 The government’s daily press releases, however, report “deaths within 28 days of a positive test result”—a definition repeated faithfully by broadcast and print journalists and on social media.2 This approach probably under-recognises the real number of deaths from covid-19 by around 20%.3

''Having two parallel reporting methods is unfortunate as it plays into the “What are they not telling us?” narrative of covid denialists, conspiracy theorists, and lockdown sceptics.4''


https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n352

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14185 on November 01, 2021, 09:42:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This has been a fascinating experiment in smoking out people who are utterly determined to ignore the simplest, most obvious causal connections and insist that they are being misled. Throughout the entire epidemic, there's been a clear and unarguable connection between positive cases and deaths three weeks later.

But there are millions of people who are utterly certain there's no link. It's all a conspiracy to lie to us and enslave us.

If it wasn't so f**king serious it wod be hilarious.

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14186 on November 02, 2021, 08:00:01 am by normal rules »
Is it right that a bloke who tests positive for covid and is then recovering, three weeks later dies in a car crash and he is put down as a covid death? (Fact)

And for the record I am double jabbed, and have done my bit during lockdown. I’m not into conspiracy theories. Covid exists. People are dying from it and with it .
However,
I have a family member who works at the large nhs hospital in Birmingham, and has worked through the whole pandemic. She has first hand accounts of people dying of anything but covid, yet they go down as covid deaths .

I just don’t like the way deaths are recorded.  And that phrase I posted earlier that rolls out on the news every night really pisses me off.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14187 on November 02, 2021, 08:21:37 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Are we having 160 discharged COVID patients a day walking in front of cars then?

Or in fact are we having any?

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14188 on November 02, 2021, 08:25:17 am by drfchound »
Are we having 160 discharged COVID patients a day walking in front of cars then?

Or in fact are we having any?




He didn’t say all of the deaths are recorded incorrectly, just some of them.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14189 on November 02, 2021, 08:27:30 am by Filo »
While mask wearing was mandatory, DMBC our licensing authority for private hire sent out a directive to all private hire and taxi operators stating that no one was exempt from wearing a mask in a licensed vehicle due to the confined space of the vehicle and a driver is entitled to work in a safe as environment as possible. It seemed like half the Town had suddenly become exempt, some having a last gasp of their fag before claiming exemption

 

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