Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bit more than a week. More like 12 days from memory.

But Spain has been bending the curve for a good while now. So have Italy, France and Germany. We really need to start seeing a sustained decrease in the rate of increase of new deaths if we are to get anywhere close to the outcomes that those countries are heading towards. Anything below 750 deaths today would be cautiously promising. Anything much over 800 would be very worrying.

[BillyStubbsTears]

621 today if my maths is right. That's very good news.

[Copps is Magic]

Billy, here's what you are refering to for arguments sake.  I don't see anything that supports your initial arguments, sorry, do you?

https://imgur.com/a/idrQFin

[ian1980]

621 UK deaths in last 24hrs (dropped from 708 the day before)

Figures are for hospital deaths only.

[selby]

  Not so good news is that Singapore  who were thought of as the country to follow track of after containing the virus in early March by a massive testing regime, have had their largest daily surge of 120 as a second wave of cases hits them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps.

That is a log-log graph. That's designed for showing big trends but it is very difficult to pick out movements in the trends

That graph screams out to me that, pre-lockdown suppression policies, the broad trends in all the countries' rate of deaths Vs total deaths is effectively the same. That's the point I've been making. There is nothing whatsoever to support the argument that data collection, or underlying health differences from country to country have affected the initial rates of deaths. That's the first of the points I've been making.

The second point is that what is absolutely crucial is the speed at which countries break off that initial trend as they implement suppression strategies. A few days either side can lead to enormous differences in the total number of deaths. And it is very difficult to see that on a log-log graph of absolute numbers. Which is why I've been analysing that data to draw out some of that understanding. That is exactly what I've been doing in the recent graphs I've been producing. Like the one below. I'll update it later with today's data and I expect that to show a slightly better position for us.

[ian1980]

Well the Scottish Cheif Medical Officer has created a bit of a shit storm up there by going to her holiday home the last two weekends whilst telling people to stay at home.

She’s on the press briefing today and has apologised but now Nicola Sturgeon is answering every question even when directed at the CMO, basically not allowing her to speak and keeping her quiet.

[Dutch Uncle]

621 UK deaths in last 24hrs (dropped from 708 the day before)

Figures are for hospital deaths only.

May I ask where that figure is from Ian?

BBC is reporting 555 for England, 12 for Wales and 7 for Northern Ireland. Scotland has announced an incomplete figure of 2 deaths as below: 

In announcing the latest coronavirus figures, with two more deaths taking the tally of hospital deaths in Scotland to 220, Nicola Sturgeon said they should "not be taken as representative of events over this weekend".

The first minister noted that the reporting system for deaths is not fully up and running seven days a week and that she expects the figures reported today, and on Monday, to be "artificially low".

"These figures will be reconciled on Tuesday and Wednesday and I expect them to increase from the 46 deaths reported yesterday," she added.


So that gives a total for today of 576 for the UK, with the Scottish figure expected to rise next week. Were  there any caveats in your source? I agree 621 (i.e. assumption of 47 for Scotland) would be more realistic.

Edit: I also agree that the drop from 641 for England yesterday to 555 is encouraging.

[adamtherover]

621 UK deaths in last 24hrs (dropped from 708 the day before)

Figures are for hospital deaths only.

May I ask where that figure is from Ian?

BBC is reporting 555 for England, 12 for Wales and 7 for Northern Ireland. Scotland has announced an incomplete figure of 2 deaths as below: 

In announcing the latest coronavirus figures, with two more deaths taking the tally of hospital deaths in Scotland to 220, Nicola Sturgeon said they should "not be taken as representative of events over this weekend".

The first minister noted that the reporting system for deaths is not fully up and running seven days a week and that she expects the figures reported today, and on Monday, to be "artificially low".

"These figures will be reconciled on Tuesday and Wednesday and I expect them to increase from the 46 deaths reported yesterday," she added.


So that gives a total for today of 576 for the UK, with the Scottish figure expected to rise next week. Were  there any caveats in your source? I agree 621 (i.e. assumption of 47 for Scotland) would be more realistic.

Edit: I also agree that the drop from 641 for England yesterday to 555 is encouraging.

DU, the figure of 621 is the uk number of deaths on the worldometer website...

[Dutch Uncle]

Thanks Adam

I guess they must have made a reasonable estimate for Scotland (maybe based on 46 yesterday).

[Copps is Magic]

The UK numbers are erratic because there appears to be backlog of deaths announced on certain days (tuesday, it seems).

[BillyStubbsTears]

The UK numbers are erratic because there appears to be backlog of deaths announced on certain days (tuesday, it seems).

That's fair enough, but that affects BOTH the daily rate AND the total. Which is why that is a particularly good metric to use, because it tends to deal with those irregularities. In my graph on doubling rate Vs total deaths, I then take a running average to smooth out the peaks and troughs of daily variations, and get more of a feel for how the trend in doubling time is going.

[ian1980]

621 UK deaths in last 24hrs (dropped from 708 the day before)

Figures are for hospital deaths only.

May I ask where that figure is from Ian?

BBC is reporting 555 for England, 12 for Wales and 7 for Northern Ireland. Scotland has announced an incomplete figure of 2 deaths as below: 

In announcing the latest coronavirus figures, with two more deaths taking the tally of hospital deaths in Scotland to 220, Nicola Sturgeon said they should "not be taken as representative of events over this weekend".

The first minister noted that the reporting system for deaths is not fully up and running seven days a week and that she expects the figures reported today, and on Monday, to be "artificially low".

"These figures will be reconciled on Tuesday and Wednesday and I expect them to increase from the 46 deaths reported yesterday," she added.


So that gives a total for today of 576 for the UK, with the Scottish figure expected to rise next week. Were  there any caveats in your source? I agree 621 (i.e. assumption of 47 for Scotland) would be more realistic.

Edit: I also agree that the drop from 641 for England yesterday to 555 is encouraging.

I think it’s already been answered but that’s the UK wide figure that was reported on Sky News

[Dutch Uncle]

Thanks Ian

Because I am now living in Northern Ireland I am always interested in the breakdown within the UK, so I have always gone first to the BBC.

[drfchound]

The 621 figure was announced on the BBC Dutch.

[Dutch Uncle]

The 621 figure was announced on the BBC Dutch.

Thanks Hound.

It is now, but wasn’t when I first posted. Originally there was just the England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the incomplete Scotland figure which came to the 576 I mentioned earlier. I guess Worldometer and SKY and BBC get figures from the UK government (not the devolved ones) and an assumption for Scotland was probably already made by the Government.

[IDM]

Are the numbers of deaths quoted each day, figures for actual deaths which happened in that 24 hour period, or the total of those recorded during that day where the recording may have been delayed a few days.?

Apologies if the has been answered, but if the “recorded” number each day isn’t necessarily the actual figure of deaths occurring on the same day, then it makes little sense to compare today’s deaths to yesterday’s - isn’t it better to look at the numbers over a longer period of time.?

[wilts rover]

IDM

No the deaths quoted on any one day are the deaths recorded on that day not the actual date of death - which could be (is most likely to be) several days earlier. There is more detail here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

[selby]

  A worrying jump in cases in South Yorkshire today, but might explain the low numbers yesterday.  The total cases went up to 1372 a rise of 14.94% or 205 new cases Doncaster rose 20 cases to 137 Sheffield 103 to 833 Rotherham 44 to 202 and Barnsley 42 to 200.

 In the boroughs of Greater London the total reached 11994 cases a rise on the day of 1227 or 10.23%
 
 There are a total of 47,806 cases in the UK Greater London boroughs  have 25.08% of all cases in the UK at the moment.

[wilts rover]

Worrying. Stay safe people.

[scawsby steve]

Still low for Donny though. Let's keep this lockdown solid.

[selby]

  The rise of twenty today followed a rise of only one yesterday Steve, I can only imagine as Billy has said previously the available number information per day varies as to its accuracy.

[Copps is Magic]

Bojo admitted to hospital. He didn't look well tbh and still having a high temperature was a bad sign.

[Metalmicky]

Bojo admitted to hospital. He didn't look well tbh and still having a high temperature was a bad sign.

I'm sure some will be happy at this news....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bojo admitted to hospital. He didn't look well tbh and still having a high temperature was a bad sign.

I'm sure some will be happy at this news....

And that's the first thing you can think to say?

What a society we have become.

Good luck to him. I wouldn't wish this on anyone. As ought to be bleeding obvious.

[IDM]

Bojo admitted to hospital. He didn't look well tbh and still having a high temperature was a bad sign.

I'm sure some will be happy at this news....

When he was tested the other week I am fairly sure I said on here I wish him no ill..

I don’t like his politics but now as a few days ago, I wish him no ill..

[Metalmicky]

Bojo admitted to hospital. He didn't look well tbh and still having a high temperature was a bad sign.

I'm sure some will be happy at this news....

And that's the first thing you can think to say?

What a society we have become.

Good luck to him. I wouldn't wish this on anyone. As ought to be bleeding obvious.

No - not the first thing... my first thought was God bless him and I wish him well...

My second thought was, I wonder who will respond first to my post........... congratulations to me - I was right..

[BillyStubbsTears]

Odd that you choose to go fishing on a subject like this then.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Regardless of whether you like him or not the potential loss of the pm for a period of time is another huge loss to the stability we all desperately need.  The short term reactions now arent really about politics but keeping people alive.

[Metalmicky]

Odd that you choose to go fishing on a subject like this then.

Not fishing....... just stating the obvious...