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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1421645 times)

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Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1890 on April 12, 2020, 02:18:00 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
Boris Johnson has now been discharged from hospital and will continue his recovery at Chequers

Wait till he grows up and finds himself behind at chess  :unsure:



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albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1891 on April 12, 2020, 02:32:51 pm by albie »
Boris Johnson has now been discharged from hospital and will continue his recovery at Chequers

Good, hopefully he has had a lesson in the importance of a well resourced NHS, with proper forward planning.

At the end of this, the actions of those in charge need to be considered.
Culpable negligence leading to manslaughter is one interpretation of the road not travelled.

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1892 on April 12, 2020, 02:41:25 pm by i_ateallthepies »
Unfortunately albie, there will be plenty of Patsys in the executive of the NHS (some of them deserving of blame, perhaps) to shield the government ministers from the law.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1893 on April 12, 2020, 02:46:14 pm by Filo »
Unfortunately albie, there will be plenty of Patsys in the executive of the NHS (some of them deserving of blame, perhaps) to shield the government ministers from the law.

I think we’ve seen an example of that a couple of days ago when the Chief Nursing Officer, towed the party line after her make over for the cameras

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1894 on April 12, 2020, 02:48:42 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BRR, there was a flu epidemic in the Netherlands in 2018. Shown in the blue line on that graph.

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/dutch-flu-epidemic-spreading

There's one every year but some are weak, as I believe ths ones were. And that's an interesting angle too - several weaker epidemics and more vulnerable are left as victims for the more potent one. This is a factor in this. I'm not downplaying Corona but it is important to try and get the real perspective. Things are being ignored, the stats we have and the use of them are effectively an artists impression.


BRR.

It's pointless comparing THIS epidemic when there have been uprecedented suppression measures, with a normal flu epidemic when life carries on as normal.

If you want to compare like with like, you'd need to assume that the pre-suppression doubling rate of deaths (doubling every 3-4 days) had carried on until 0.5% or so of the population were dead.

I did precisely that sort of model back in February and it was terrifying. At the peak there would have been something like 25,000 people a day dying in the UK.

As it is, by losing 30% of GDP over the spring, we MIGHT, if we are lucky, have only 2-3 times the  deaths from CV-19 than we would in a normal flu epidemic.

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1895 on April 12, 2020, 03:09:28 pm by BigH »
Boris Johnson has now been discharged from hospital and will continue his recovery at Chequers

Good, hopefully he has had a lesson in the importance of a well resourced NHS, with proper forward planning.

At the end of this, the actions of those in charge need to be considered.
Culpable negligence leading to manslaughter is one interpretation of the road not travelled.
I'd settle for culpable negligence being held to account at the ballot box.

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1896 on April 12, 2020, 03:33:19 pm by scawsby steve »
Boris Johnson has now been discharged from hospital and will continue his recovery at Chequers

Wait till he grows up and finds himself behind at chess  :unsure:

Yeah BRR, but Chequers is a big place. It's probably a bit draughty.

OK, I'll get mi coat.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1897 on April 12, 2020, 03:36:03 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
BRR, there was a flu epidemic in the Netherlands in 2018. Shown in the blue line on that graph.

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/dutch-flu-epidemic-spreading

There's one every year but some are weak, as I believe ths ones were. And that's an interesting angle too - several weaker epidemics and more vulnerable are left as victims for the more potent one. This is a factor in this. I'm not downplaying Corona but it is important to try and get the real perspective. Things are being ignored, the stats we have and the use of them are effectively an artists impression.


BRR.

It's pointless comparing THIS epidemic when there have been uprecedented suppression measures, with a normal flu epidemic when life carries on as normal.

If you want to compare like with like, you'd need to assume that the pre-suppression doubling rate of deaths (doubling every 3-4 days) had carried on until 0.5% or so of the population were dead.

I did precisely that sort of model back in February and it was terrifying. At the peak there would have been something like 25,000 people a day dying in the UK.

As it is, by losing 30% of GDP over the spring, we MIGHT, if we are lucky, have only 2-3 times the  deaths from CV-19 than we would in a normal flu epidemic.

The original graph posted wasn't comparing it to anything beyond death in certain years. Comparing it to a flu is valid, and will still show it's high. I'm not demeaning the severity of this, but using stats that exaggerate it isn't helpful either.

*If* we had the ventilators and staff and PPE, and hadn't had critical care beds reduced, and the epidemic was left to itself, there would of course be a great number of deaths, but less than those predicted which were based on the fact that we hadn't got critical care provisions. Anyway, we will see much later exactly how bad this is, current stats are almost useless without the guessing of doubling the deaths and multiplying the infected cases by xx - by 20?

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1898 on April 12, 2020, 04:16:00 pm by Copps is Magic »
I fail to see how using those stats exaggerates anything.

In fact, I could have pointed out that during 2018 flu epidemic (the blue line on the graph) was when the highest number of any deaths (of any cause) was recorded in the country since WW2.

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/deadliest-week-netherlands-wwii

That is;

In the last week of February of 2018, 3887 died in that week.

In the week from 26 March to 1 April 2020, 4718 people died.

The figures are there for anyone to consider, I won't underplay or exaggerate them any more than simply presenting them.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1899 on April 12, 2020, 04:25:07 pm by selby »
  Lot's being said about how poor the government has been, discounting Germany who seem to be fantastic, of the other countries in Europe comparing the total population and the number of deaths Sweden who have been criticised for their approach have the fewest deaths per million with 0.0086 per million. Spain with 0.0361 the most per million Italy 0.0325 Belgium with 0.0314 France with 0.0206 UK with 0.0148 Luxembourg with 0.0101

  Germany is 0.0035 deaths per million by far the least
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 05:00:46 pm by selby »

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1900 on April 12, 2020, 05:15:14 pm by i_ateallthepies »
Not sure any death stats can be taken at face value, so much variance in what and whether they're included in the count.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1901 on April 12, 2020, 05:18:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Sweden absolutely do not have the fewest deaths per capita in Europe outside Germany.

Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland, Norway, Czechia, Finland, Estonia, Romania and Greece all have lower death rates. That's not an exhaustive list, just a few.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1902 on April 12, 2020, 05:19:01 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Sweden absolutely do not have the fewest reported deaths per capita in Europe outside Germany.

Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland, Norway, Czechia, Finland, Estonia, Romania and Greece all have lower death rates. That's not an exhaustive list, just a few.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1903 on April 12, 2020, 05:37:26 pm by selby »
Billy, I never claimed that Just the numbers of the main countries with the most deaths reported, not the whole of Europe.

   

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1904 on April 12, 2020, 05:38:58 pm by wilts rover »
  Lot's being said about how poor the government has been, discounting Germany who seem to be fantastic, of the other countries in Europe comparing the total population and the number of deaths Sweden who have been criticised for their approach have the fewest deaths per million with 0.0086 per million. Spain with 0.0361 the most per million Italy 0.0325 Belgium with 0.0314 France with 0.0206 UK with 0.0148 Luxembourg with 0.0101

  Germany is 0.0035 deaths per million by far the least

What about recovery rate selby?

The UK has had 85000 confirmed cases & 10000 deaths. How many of those 85000 have recovered in that time - 344. 344!! (and congratulations to Johnson for being one of those btw)

Italy have had just less than twice our number of cases 156000 - with 34000 recovered
Iran (Iran!) have had 75000 cases - 44000 recovered
The Netherlands have had less than us 250, but with a third less cases 25000.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

39th health care worker died today apparently...

but the government are doing a great job... of making their herd immunity plan work.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1905 on April 12, 2020, 05:45:25 pm by wilts rover »
and amazingly just as I posted that this popped up:

Despite denials to the contrary 'Herd Immunity' was still being modeled as a policy by the government as late as 23rd March

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/documents-contradict-uk-government-stance-on-covid-19-herd-immunity

silent majority

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1906 on April 12, 2020, 06:00:50 pm by silent majority »
and amazingly just as I posted that this popped up:

Despite denials to the contrary 'Herd Immunity' was still being modeled as a policy by the government as late as 23rd March

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/documents-contradict-uk-government-stance-on-covid-19-herd-immunity

That article does not state that it was part of any government policy as late as the 23rd March. In fact the article, right at the start, states that it was on a list considered for analysis by a contractor. But there's no confirmation why it was there.

It's a bit of a wild leap to then say it was part of government policy. The article states that 'it raises questions'.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1907 on April 12, 2020, 06:03:19 pm by drfchound »
If the uk has had 85,000 cases, of which 10,0000 have died, how come only 344 people have been deemed to have recovered?
What happened with the other 74,656?


The true recovery rate is likely to be much higher as many cases will have only suffered minor discomfort and will not have been tested.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1908 on April 12, 2020, 06:04:54 pm by selby »
Wilts you go on and on between you having a pop at the government at every opportunity.
   Is it the fault of the government that the procurement management in the NHS have not bought or stocked PPE, or the government itself.I don't know and neither do you, but you will have a pop anyway because it suits your rhetoric.
  And Oh the disgust when challenged.
   I would have thought that after three and a half years of pages of posting diatribe why we should stay in the EU and  don't vote for a  conservative government, the results would have given you an indication that you were pissing into the wind, turning every conversation on here into a political thread you think everyone should agree with your stance, and not have an opinion of their own whether you and others think it is right or wrong, and being downright rude, trying to belittle posts and going ballistic when they give you some back.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1909 on April 12, 2020, 06:08:00 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
If the uk has had 85,000 cases, of which 10,0000 have died, how come only 344 people have been deemed to have recovered?
What happened with the other 74,656?


The true recovery rate is likely to be much higher as many cases will have only suffered minor discomfort and will not have been tested.

Emergency! Hound's body has been taken over by tenty thousand micro Priti Patels.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1910 on April 12, 2020, 06:08:41 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1911 on April 12, 2020, 06:10:09 pm by drfchound »
If the uk has had 85,000 cases, of which 10,0000 have died, how come only 344 people have been deemed to have recovered?
What happened with the other 74,656?


The true recovery rate is likely to be much higher as many cases will have only suffered minor discomfort and will not have been tested.

Emergency! Hound's body has been taken over by tenty thousand micro Priti Patels.






Is my comment a true fact though BST.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1912 on April 12, 2020, 06:23:58 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yes, it is certainly true.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1913 on April 12, 2020, 06:30:05 pm by River Don »
I don't think Johnson will be counted as recovered yet Wilts.

Part of the difficulty with this virus is ts a persistent bugger. It can be a long time to show symptoms from infection, then it can take a longtime to recover.

Even when a patient feels recovered, they can still be infectious for quite sometime.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1914 on April 12, 2020, 06:37:32 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Billy, I never claimed that Just the numbers of the main countries with the most deaths reported, not the whole of Europe.

   

Apologies if I misread your meaning. Clearly though, Sweden will look good if you exclude all the countries who locked down early and have low death rates as a result.

By the way, the way I see it, rates per capita are not a good way to assess this  virus.

It's like Petri dishes of different sizes. If you drop a bacterium into each one, it will spread at the same rate initially. The only reason that the bigger fish will end up with more bacteria than the smaller dish is when the spread in the smaller dish gets to the boundary of the dish (analogy: when everyone in the smaller country is infected).

We are still talking about small percentages of people being infected. So there is no sense to quoting the figures per capita. It's far simpler than that.

Countries that have large numbers have done badly at managing this, regardless of how big they are.

Apart from the very tiniest countries, those with small numbers have done well, regardless of how small they are.

America is a catastrophe. Germany is a big success.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1915 on April 12, 2020, 06:43:05 pm by River Don »
There are particular factors at work in the UK too, there are a lot of crowded areas in the UK, notably London, where there are many multi occupancy buildings. Shared houses are very common.

It is a gift to this virus.

This may not be the same in say Berlin for instance, I don't know.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1916 on April 12, 2020, 06:56:15 pm by drfchound »
Yes, it is certainly true.







No need to be a dick then was there.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1917 on April 12, 2020, 06:59:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wind your neck in and have a look at the typo in the first line of your post that I responded to.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1918 on April 12, 2020, 07:02:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
In every crisis, we look to people with wit to make us laugh through the bad times.

Here's the editor of The Sun showing us the best in surreal humour.

https://mobile.twitter.com/danwootton/status/1247228858941800449

"A lifeline of trusted information." Comic genius.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1919 on April 12, 2020, 07:02:45 pm by drfchound »
Wind your neck in and have a look at the typo in the first line of your post that I responded to.







Ah yes, a minor typo.
Good job I put the comma in so you could clearly see what I meant.

 

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