Coronavirus

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Imposing quarantine visitors returning from the whole of Spain looks like a deliberate act to damage their economy.

Not my words. The words of arch-Brexiteer Michael Portillo on the radio today.

Or they are just reactive to what appears to be a clear spike?

[Filo]

Imposing quarantine visitors returning from the whole of Spain looks like a deliberate act to damage their economy.

Not my words. The words of arch-Brexiteer Michael Portillo on the radio today.

Or they are just reactive to what appears to be a clear spike?

The spike is in Northern Spain, not the Balearics or the Canaries, the Canaries are not even near Spain, it’s just a way of the elite showing they can control us when they feel like it

[BillyStubbsTears]

Exactly Filo.

BFYP. The apposite word was "whole". And once again, our Govt has responded to headlines by turning on a sixpence.

Govt by media agenda-setting.

For the record, they have done the right thing this evening, but f**k me what a shambles.

[wilts rover]

They knew two weeks ago that cases in Spain were rising. So why didn't they tell people then they were going to be watching the situation and if there was a noticable rise in cases quarantine could be re-imposed? Then at least they knew they were taking a risk when booking and/or flying.

Instead they let people fly out of the UK for a weeks' holiday on Saturday morning - to discover when they landed they could have an extra two weeks off without pay when they came back!

No plan to take us into lockdown - and no plan to take us out of it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apologies. I misread the BBC story in a rush. I thought it was saying the Govt had released the requirement for lockdown for returners from the Spanish Islands.

My mistake.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The question of a more local split is a fair one and they should explain why they haven't done that as you'd think some sense could be applied.

Spain as a whole has seen a 250% increaae over 2 weeks, that's a significant jump.  Perhaps they are nervous given what we saw at the start of this, holidaymakers quarantined in hotels in the canaries for example.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There are three localised outbreaks in Spain. Further from the Canaries (which have a lower infection rate than England) than London is.

It's like the outbreak in Leicester being used by a foreign Govt to control travel to the Shetlands.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

There are three localised outbreaks in Spain. Further from the Canaries (which have a lower infection rate than England) than London is.

It's like the outbreak in Leicester being used by a foreign Govt to control travel to the Shetlands.

Which is exactly what did happen previously.....

Again it is that question of where do you draw the line isn't it? This notion of borders and countries in administrative terms etc as opposed to geographical location is perhaps flawed but a line always has to be drawn somewhere.

I do though agree including the canaries is a bit odd.  I could understand all of mainland Spain but the canaries are so far away they should be seen as separate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Govt knows where people have flown from. That information is recorded when your passport is registered at the airport. So they know who has flown in from Andalusia (low infection rate) and Catalonia (high rate). And therefore they could require people who have travelled from dangerous regions to isolate, and allow those who have travelled from safer regions not to do. It is absolutely no more difficult to enforce than imposing quarantine on the whole of Spain. In fact less so, because there would be fewer people to check on.

Yes, there are clever bas**rds like Johnson Snr who would try to get round this by plane hopping, but they can do that anyway by flying from Barcelona to London via Paris. And the overwhelming number of holidaymakers would not do that.

It feels like an unnecessarily ham fisted approach. And the cynic in me says it might be more than that. A deliberate Brexit-land way of swinging punches at EU countries. The Govt has been briefing the Press that Germany is next in line, which is farcical on health grounds. But which plays mood music to certain members of the Brexit Death Cult.

[River Don]

The government will have Ryanair, Easyjet, Jet2 and all screaming at them right now. I'd say we're seeing another clumsy move from the government not a Brexit inspired swipe.

That said, I prefer to see them being overly cautious at last rather than letting things drift as they have throughout this crisis so far.

[River Don]

Just looking at the Kings College site, they are seeing the first signs of an uptick in Northern England and their opinion the level of infections across the UK is running at too high a rate.

Interestingly they also seem convinced the virus prefers colder, drier weather and warn we only have a couple of warm months left to get it under better control. Meanwhile the government continues to loosen restrictions.

Winter is on the tail of the last horse at the St Leger and with it the second wave.

[selby]

  Billy was it the EU that told us we would not be able to fly on holiday anyway after Brexit for the last four years?  I think you and a couple of others might have mentioned  it on here thinking it was good to have a stick to beat us with in the past.

[Filo]

Regarding the current Spanish restrictions, it baffles me why at the beginning of all this in Feb/March, the Government did n’t impose similar restrictions on Spain and Italy, and also China to inhibit the spread if the Virus

[SydneyRover]

Hi Filo, don't forget the government were going to use the pandemic to advantage in trade to get the drop on other countries that closed down. How's that going I wonder?

[BillyStubbsTears]

  Billy was it the EU that told us we would not be able to fly on holiday anyway after Brexit for the last four years?  I think you and a couple of others might have mentioned  it on here thinking it was good to have a stick to beat us with in the past.

Selby.

No. It wasn't.

That was an easy one. Ask me a hard one.

[SydneyRover]

You can still visit Gibralta and yet so can the Spanish?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-countries-and-territories-exempt-from-advice-against-all-but-essential-international-travel

[Ldr]

So catching up after a couple of weeks what I see is, Government acts too slowly = outrage, Government acts swiftly = outrage

[selby]

  LDR, and Billy and the disciples  have filled at least 100 pages of the 208 on this thread slagging the government off for being too slow to react to situations as you point out, and will no doubt now tell the world they are being too fast on the draw. Oh dear.

[Filo]

  LDR, and Billy and the disciples  have filled at least 100 pages of the 208 on this thread slagging the government off for being too slow to react to situations as you point out, and will no doubt now tell the world they are being too fast on the draw. Oh dear.

You don’t read stuff do you, you just shoot from the hip, why quarantine from the whole of Spain when the spike is in Northern areas of Spain? Why should holiday makers in Malaga, Tenerife, Lanzarote etc. Be penalised for a spike that is hundreds of miles away? The other point is people were allowed to travel to Spain when this decision was under consideration, surely a indication that this may happen Should have been given, giving people time to consider if they should travel or not

[BillyStubbsTears]

So catching up after a couple of weeks what I see is, Government acts too slowly = outrage, Government acts swiftly = outrage

You clearly haven't been brushing up on your critical reading while you've been away.

It has nothing to do with the speed of the decision, which is sensible. It has everything to do with the proportionality of it.

It's not hard if you spend a bit of time reading what we write. Apologies of that comes across as condescending, but well...

[wilts rover]

So catching up after a couple of weeks what I see is, Government acts too slowly = outrage, Government acts swiftly = outrage

Read what I wrote above.

They didn't act quickly. They knew 2 weeks ago that cases in Spain were rising - they just didn't tell anyone. And let them book holidays from which when they return they need to take 2 weeks unpaid leave.

Or for those about to go - cancel and loose their money.

But this appears to be fine with the Johnsoniski sycophants. Keep the roubles rolling in comrades.

[Not Now Kato]

  LDR, and Billy and the disciples  have filled at least 100 pages of the 208 on this thread slagging the government off for being too slow to react to situations as you point out, and will no doubt now tell the world they are being too fast on the draw. Oh dear.

[Ldr]

So catching up after a couple of weeks what I see is, Government acts too slowly = outrage, Government acts swiftly = outrage

You clearly haven't been brushing up on your critical reading while you've been away.

It has nothing to do with the speed of the decision, which is sensible. It has everything to do with the proportionality of it.

It's not hard if you spend a bit of time reading what we write. Apologies of that comes across as condescending, but well...

Condescending? Never 😉

[ravenrover]

Daughter has just had an e mail saying her employers will give paid leave to anyone coming back from hols and having to quarantine if they can't work from home, until end of August. Even though they are in the process of making a few hundred redundant, how does that work?!!!!!!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Daughter has just had an e mail saying her employers will give paid leave to anyone coming back from hols and having to quarantine if they can't work from home, until end of August. Even though they are in the process of making a few hundred redundant, how does that work?!!!!!!

Questionable isn't it. We were told via email today under no circumstances would we be paid if having to quarantine.

[Metalmicky]

Have Spain been truthful about their death toll....?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-spain-toll/spains-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-60-higher-than-official-count-says-el-pais-idUKKCN24R0G6

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

We have potentially over reported ours others perhaps overstated.  I thought the comments from the ONS interesting this week that deaths are now lower as a number of vulnerable people who would have died perhaps died earlier due to Covid 19.  IE a valid point has it simply sped up deaths that would have perhaps happened anyway?

We won't know that for years but obviously someone can only die once.  It may be that we see less flu deaths in winter as the more vulnerable are already dead.

Not a nice thing to say but may be true, on the other hand it might not turn out to be the case. These things though can't be judged in 2 weeks and we'd all do well to remember that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There are inevitably variations in how the deaths are recorded and counted from country to country. Here in the UK, our official figure is for people who have died after a positive CV-19 test. That's about 45,000. But the ONS, when collating all cases in which the death certificate mentions CV-19 symptoms, estimates about 55,000 deaths.

The simplest thing to look at is total excess deaths over the long term average. Deaths from whatever cause. Here's a figure from the FT collating that data

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5ad96060-c51d-11ea-9d81-eb7f2a294e50?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490

Regarding the 2 week comment BFYP, I agree that it will take a long time to fully analyse the data and draw the precise lessons. But there is one huge big picture lesson that is already clear. Countries that got their shit together quickly in March and locked down at an early stage in their epidemic have come out of this first wave relatively well. Germany, Norway, Denmark, Greece etc.

Countries that locked down late have been hammered. USA, Brazil, UK, Spain, Italy, France.

There is a single question that must not be forgotten in all the noise. Why did we lock down so late? Why did we CHOOSE not to lock down for a fortnight after we'd seen what was happening in other countries, and a week after SAGE had spelled out unambiguously where we were heading. That delay has cost a minimum of 30-40,000 lives. More than all the UK civilians killed in the Blitz. And it was entirely avoidable - and that's not hindsight, because we were saying it here at the time.

[Metalmicky]

Saw this earlier and it made me chuckle...

[River Don]

An interesting article, advocating a complete clampdown on tourism and international arrivals to eliminate the virus from the island.

Something New Zealand has done. It could have been done here back in March and saved thousands of lives. It's still a valid course of action.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/29/britain-ditches-overseas-travel-coronavirus-spanish-covid-19