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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 144973 times)

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i_ateallthepies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6270 on July 31, 2020, 03:30:59 PM by i_ateallthepies »
Lockdown tightened in parts of northern England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362

And putting the blame on the people instead of acknowledging they lifted lockdown too early

Nothing will ever work if people are not responsible it is that simple.

In any population of people there will always be different attitudes, especially when the word of the authorities is unclear or muddled so to group everyone together for criticism is crass and stupid but entirely predictable for anyone part of this government.

Axholme Lion

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6271 on July 31, 2020, 03:41:58 PM by Axholme Lion »
Lockdown tightened in parts of northern England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362

You only have to look at the list of towns to see who is responsible. Serves them right.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6272 on July 31, 2020, 03:45:19 PM by River Don »
Serves 'them' right for what?

Living in multigenerational households and working more often in customer facing roles?

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6273 on July 31, 2020, 05:09:02 PM by wilts rover »

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6274 on July 31, 2020, 09:10:43 PM by ravenrover »
Lockdown tightened in parts of northern England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362

You only have to look at the list of towns to see who is responsible. Serves them right.
But I bet you say you are not racist?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6275 on August 01, 2020, 11:21:40 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1288931464168591371

Someone want to explain what he's trying to say in 4/4?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6276 on August 01, 2020, 11:45:15 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
I'd like to think that Ann Widdecombe isn't as entirely f**king batshit as the persona she pushes but, well...

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/steve-anglesey-on-tim-martin-nigel-farage-and-ann-widdecombe-1-6764346

Not Now Kato

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6277 on August 02, 2020, 12:19:47 PM by Not Now Kato »
I'd like to think that Ann Widdecombe isn't as entirely f**king batshit as the persona she pushes but, well...

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/steve-anglesey-on-tim-martin-nigel-farage-and-ann-widdecombe-1-6764346

Ironically, not only was she being serious but quite a few people are taking it seriously and thinking it's a good idea.  What's happening to this country?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6278 on August 02, 2020, 12:25:44 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
It is like living in a nightmare NNK, where people as spectacularly insane as Widdecombe have actually been convincing millions and millions of people to embrace their inner stupidity and not listen to experts.

I would love to be able to jump to about 2200 and see what the historians make of this madness.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6279 on August 02, 2020, 01:01:54 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
And the utter, boneheaded stupidity on the Right isn't limited to the UK. This is an indication of the ignorance that is rife in the Republican party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1289167855842254850

By the way, they've just slashed unemployment benefit over there because the Republicans say it is deterring people from looking for work.

There are over 30million people out of work.

Cruel, callous, and thick as pigshit. That's what they are.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6280 on August 02, 2020, 01:12:48 PM by SydneyRover »
There could be a couple of scenarios trump has in mind with this BST firstly he could be hoping that people desperate for money for food will start rioting giving him an excuse for a bigger lpre-electiion law and order crackdown although the first one didn't go well or he accepts that he going to lose and is trying to wreck the economy for the next government.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6281 on August 02, 2020, 05:46:21 PM by Filo »
This is that ring of protection around care homes that the Government pledged, lie after lie after lie

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-testing-for-covid-19-in-care-homes-delayed-until-september-12041099

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6282 on August 04, 2020, 10:30:42 AM by BillyStubbsTears »

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6283 on August 04, 2020, 12:33:30 PM by River Don »
It's looking grim, isn't it?

I think we ought to take the hit now and try to get to a position like New Zealand. That would mean locking down again hard for 6 weeks, stopping all international travel to the UK and get the infections down to a really low level.

Then we could open up as New Zealand has but maintain very strict rules on international travel.

Yes, we would take a big economic hit but... That's already happening and it's on going. That way we would have a chance to get back to something close to normality in the country over winter, with the hope that a vaccine might be available next summer.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6284 on August 04, 2020, 12:58:11 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
RD.

This is precisely what I was saying 2 months ago. We lifted the lockdown way too early in England, when we could have ground the number of cases right down. Now we have a clear and consistent rise in new infections, from an already high base level. Just as we are about to throw petrol on the embers by fully re-opening schools.

Utterly shocking management. And all predictable and predicted at the time. And all due to a shambolic lack of understanding of the economic cause and effect. There is NO trade off between the virus and the economy. You get the economy firing again by screwing down the virus. Not by arbitrarily choosing to reopen when numbers were still high and we had nothing like a functioning track and trace system.

We are going to pay big style for this. The next 5 months is going to see one of the following

1) Schools not reopening in September.
2) A second nationwide lockdown.
3) A huge second wave of deaths.

All avoidable with competent management. But we've thrown that away now.

I am beyond livid about this. We deserve better than this as a nation. 

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6285 on August 04, 2020, 01:18:39 PM by River Don »
Yes BST but I don't think we ever took the very difficult decision to really lockdown on international travel.

Really we need to be at a point when anybody coming into the country has to go into a supervised quarentine hotel for a fortnight before entering.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6286 on August 04, 2020, 01:25:42 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
There's no sign that International travel is driving the current increase. It's community infection due to relaxation of the lockdown.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6287 on August 04, 2020, 01:29:07 PM by River Don »
With asymptomatic travellers how can it not leave an open door to the virus? Clamping down on the borders seemed to work for New Zealand.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6288 on August 04, 2020, 01:49:14 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
That's because they had a policy of total elimination of the virus. We didn't, and realistically couldn't, once we had such widespread embedment of the virus in the community by February. The best we could realistically hope to do was to grind down the cases to the low hundreds or even better, high tens of new cases per day, and have a truly effective track and trace system to clamp down quickly and brutally on new local outbreaks.

We did neither. We had the f**king idiot in No10 telling us all how 4 July was Independence Day, when we were still having 500 new positive tests a day and whaddya know? The new cases per day which had been steadily falling up to then have consistently risen throughout July, so that we are now at 800 per day and rising, just as we are about to send millions of kids back to school.

And the same f**king idiot blustered in Parliament back in May that we would have a world leading TTI system in place by 1 June. Instead,, two months on, we have a barely functioning one, which epidemiologists are saying is not remotely sufficient to protect us from a second wave.

You can win elections and beat political opponents by bluster and lies. What you can't do is beat Mother Nature that way. We elected a man who has built his entire career on lying, blustering and playing the clown. How did we expect him to handle this crisis other than by lying, blustering and playing the clown? And we are certainly going to pay for it over the next few months.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6289 on August 04, 2020, 02:08:31 PM by River Don »
I'm suggesting a policy of total elimination BST, I don't think it is too late, even now.

Six weeks hard lockdown with very limited international travel only should be time enough for outstanding internal infections to emerge and be dealt with.

Politically such a move would be very difficult, I understand that it's highly unlikely. Particularly when the government continue to behave in such a manner that suggests they expect it to just go away.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6290 on August 04, 2020, 03:08:05 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
I don't see that as realistic RD.

During the hard lockdown, new cases were having every 15-20 days. We are now running at 800 new cases per day. Even if you managed to get the decay rate faster, like Germany did (halving every 12-13 days from peak) it would still take ten weeks or more to get the numbers down to the low tens per day from where we are now. The big chance we lost was to get the numbers down to the high 10s per day. If we had kept the lockdown on throughout July, we'd be just about there now. And with that level of outbreaks, we'd have had a chance of TTI working, because we could have dedicated more resources to each new case. But that's gone now. we are on what is looking like a steady increase in new cases to beyond 1000 per day again by the time the schools reopen. And then, according the epidemiology modelling, a surge throughout the autumn, and back to 1000 people a day dying.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6291 on August 04, 2020, 04:41:16 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
According to the King's College COVID tracker study by the way, the number of cases in the community fell roughly by half every two weeks or so from the height of the epidemic in early April.

In the first week of April, they reckoned there were about 2million cases in the country.

By early May it was about 500k.

By early June about 100k.

By early July about 25k.

If that had carried on, we'd now be down to around 5-6000 active cases, which would be lower than the number Germany now has.

That was the chance we had. That would have given us a chance to manage any outbreaks, starting from such a low number.

But no. The Buffoon in Chief announced Independence Day and said we could all go to the pub. Since then, the KC study estimates that the number of active cases has gone back up towards 30,000 and the number of new cases is heading back towards 1000/day. And we have that frightening warning from the epidemiology experts about what is coming down the track in the Autumn.

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6292 on August 04, 2020, 04:46:59 PM by scawsby steve »
I don't see that as realistic RD.

During the hard lockdown, new cases were having every 15-20 days. We are now running at 800 new cases per day. Even if you managed to get the decay rate faster, like Germany did (halving every 12-13 days from peak) it would still take ten weeks or more to get the numbers down to the low tens per day from where we are now. The big chance we lost was to get the numbers down to the high 10s per day. If we had kept the lockdown on throughout July, we'd be just about there now. And with that level of outbreaks, we'd have had a chance of TTI working, because we could have dedicated more resources to each new case. But that's gone now. we are on what is looking like a steady increase in new cases to beyond 1000 per day again by the time the schools reopen. And then, according the epidemiology modelling, a surge throughout the autumn, and back to 1000 people a day dying.

F*cking hell BST, I've not been posting on this thread because my views on this virus are so pessimistic they'd depress everyone, but according to what you've just said there we're all doomed.

Not much point in any of us posting on the football forum, because if what you've said above comes to fruition there won't be a football season, or anything else.

I'm off now, probably to the River Don.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6293 on August 04, 2020, 04:55:16 PM by drfchound »
I hope your will is in order mate.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6294 on August 04, 2020, 07:04:04 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
SS.

All I'm doing is repeating what two very eminent epidemiologists said in a report today.

To summarise, they said that unless our track and trace is transformed over the next month, the reopening of schools without a new lockdown is likely to lead to a second wave over the autumn that will be 50% worse than the first wave.

Personally, I listen to experts when they make these sorts of predictions, although I know that isn't the done thing in Brexit-land.

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6295 on August 04, 2020, 07:22:01 PM by scawsby steve »
SS.

All I'm doing is repeating what two very eminent epidemiologists said in a report today.

To summarise, they said that unless our track and trace is transformed over the next month, the reopening of schools without a new lockdown is likely to lead to a second wave over the autumn that will be 50% worse than the first wave.

Personally, I listen to experts when they make these sorts of predictions, although I know that isn't the done thing in Brexit-land.

So do I, until they start contradicting each other, but you don't seem to think that they do that.

Personally, I think this virus has got them all f*cked, and has got the whole world f*cked. No wonder one professor said on TV a few weeks back that his biggest fear was that the public would start to lose faith in scientists.

It looks like this is turning into a contest on who's the biggest doom monger, you or me.

Well you started it.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6296 on August 04, 2020, 07:31:13 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Bizarre response.

Which bit of the scientific case makes you think that the scientists don't know what they are doing or saying over COVID?

The way I see it, the only key thing the epidemiologists have got wrong so far is slightly underestimating the doubling rate back in February. Once they sorted that out, they were right about the consequences of Govt choosing to lockdown or not lockdown.

The public may well lose faith in scientists. Because the public has been lied to by a Govt that claims it has followed scientific advice at every step, when it demonstrably and manifestly has not. It's similar to the way that the public have been misled into losing faith in economists because they have made (correct) predictions that the Govt didn't want to hear, so they have been portrayed as quacks.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6297 on August 04, 2020, 07:39:49 PM by albie »
Summary with links, for the hard of reasoning;
https://www.theregister.com/2020/08/04/major_improvement_in_testandtrace_needed/

Best forget about the football season on current form, as we will be back in the mire before Johnson has time to spaff up any more excuses!

scawsby steve

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6298 on August 04, 2020, 07:46:31 PM by scawsby steve »
I think I'll cancel my season ticket and make my will out now.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6299 on August 13, 2020, 02:59:07 PM by Metalmicky »
I see the Coronavirus total for the England/uk has been revised down...... not a Government fiddle, but on the advice of Oxford University academics - figure now at just over 41k


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/12/coronavirus-death-toll-in-england-revised-down-by-more-than-5000

https://metro.co.uk/2020/08/12/uk-death-toll-drops-5377-government-changes-way-fatalities-are-counted-13121285/