Coronavirus

[Ldr]

There is one big concern which I'm amazed no-one in the media has discussed because it screams out of the data. There appear to be more people dying of COVID over the last few weeks than we'd have expected due to the positive test numbers.

Throughout the second wave, up to around the end of November, there was a constant feature. For every 50 people testing positive on a given day, 1 person died three weeks later. That held right through October and November. But since then, there are a lot more people dying compared to those testing positive. over the past 5-6 weeks, 1 person has been dying of COVID for every 30 or so who tested positive three weeks earlier. See the graph below.

The way the new cases and delayed new deaths tracked each other at 50:1 scales was quite remarkable until late Nov.

Look at the data on 1 Oct. 10,000 new positive tests a day. and three weeks later, there were 200 deaths a day. 1:50

Then in early Nov. 20-25,000 new positive tests a day. And three weeks later, 4-500 deaths a day. 1:50

But the way the death have increased since then is worrying. Three weeks ago, in Mid-Dec, we had about 20,000 new positive tests per day. Now, three weeks later, we are averaging about 700 new deaths a day. 1:30.

That could be an indication that as hospitals start to get overwhelmed, they are simply not able to provide the level of care they could when the outbreak was smaller. or it could mean that the new variant is more deadly. But whatever it is, it is unmistakable from the numbers and it might mean that we end up with significantly more deaths at the peak in 3-4 weeks time than I said in the previous post. Let's hope I'm interpreting this wrong, but it seems clear as day on that graph.

We have been advised it should peak mid next week

[drfchound]

Hancock vists Surgery to promote the vaccine rollout, only to discover the Surgery hadn’t received any yet. You couldn’t make it up, piss up brewery anyone

https://twitter.com/kevjmclaughlin/status/1347237081823719427?s=21

What was the reason for the none delivery.

[Filo]

Hancock vists Surgery to promote the vaccine rollout, only to discover the Surgery hadn’t received any yet. You couldn’t make it up, piss up brewery anyone

https://twitter.com/kevjmclaughlin/status/1347237081823719427?s=21

What was the reason for the none delivery.

No idea, but if I was a senior minister going out to blow my own trumpet the first thing I would do that day is to check that everything was in order to save any embarrassment , Hancock went, found out that no vaccines had been delivered and then did an interview saying how well the vaccine rollout was going

[River Don]

BST

If anything we were expecting to see deaths going the other way, as care improved and new therapeutic drugs are identified. If deaths are going up that's a worry, I can't imagine the NHS is so overwhelmed yet, I'd bet the new varient is a little more dangerous.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD.

I agree. The key thing is that the infections came down markedly in the November lockdown, but deaths a few weeks later barely dropped. That's a big worry.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

RD.

I agree. The key thing is that the infections came down markedly in the November lockdown, but deaths a few weeks later barely dropped. That's a big worry.

At the risk of sounding like those who try to disprove covid etc (which I'm not), whilstever we are putting those in hospital with something else down as covid deaths because they contracted it in hospital, then this will happen.

There are NHS issues.  My relative had a small procedure in hospital, gained sepsis from said procedure so was hospitalised and then got covid when rehospitalised. She is recovering thankfully but there will be many more of those who were actually originally Ill with other things.

[BillyStubbsTears]

My Serco App which I had totally forgotten about, has just this minute informed me that the national lockdown has started.

So that's only, what...58 hours and 47 minutes late.

Well done folks. Keeping us all safe...

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

Look at the graph.

Why wasn't that happening in October and early November, but suddenly started happening around late Nov?

Something very significant seems to have changed in late Nov. That ties in exactly with the start of the spread of the new variant.

[drfchound]

BST

If anything we were expecting to see deaths going the other way, as care improved and new therapeutic drugs are identified. If deaths are going up that's a worry, I can't imagine the NHS is so overwhelmed yet, I'd bet the new varient is a little more dangerous.

I heard a doctor saying earlier this week that most hospitals are running at 90% bed capacity right now, which is apparently the usual level for this time of year.
Maybe ldr could indicate how true that is.

[Ldr]

BST

If anything we were expecting to see deaths going the other way, as care improved and new therapeutic drugs are identified. If deaths are going up that's a worry, I can't imagine the NHS is so overwhelmed yet, I'd bet the new varient is a little more dangerous.

I heard a doctor saying earlier this week that most hospitals are running at 90% bed capacity right now, which is apparently the usual level for this time of year.
Maybe ldr could indicate how true that is.

Its around whats expected (remember 85% is an efficient occupancy) worth remembering though that capacity is down atm as more space needs to be kept between beds on COVID wards. An example would be that a 6 bed bay in a ward may have only 4 beds in operation currently

[drfchound]

Visitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.
This includes UK nationals.

[rich1471]

Visitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.
This includes UK nationals.

The thing is this is 9 month to late , should of happened from last April

[Axholme Lion]

Visitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.
This includes UK nationals.

The thing is this is 9 month to late , should of happened from last April

As an island nation we should have been one of the safest places to be. It's a pity they didn't have the balls to do this then.

[Bentley Bullet]

We should have done, in hindsight, although had we done we'd have had the snowflakes accusing the government of blaming 'bloody foreigners' for causing the spread!

[drfchound]

Visitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.
This includes UK nationals.

The thing is this is 9 month to late , should of happened from last April

Mmmm, maybe the Chinese should have closed their borders when all this first kicked off as well.

[rich1471]

I'm sure i read somewhere that in the first lock down in April 15,000 people a day where entering or leaving the UK no wounder it spread 

[Sprotyrover]

I have to admit that when this first started I thought, hmm China's usual problem ,won't be an issue for us, then three groups of School Kids in Donny came home from their half term skiing forays in North Italy and I realised we were in the DO Do

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm sure i read somewhere that in the first lock down in April 15,000 people a day where entering or leaving the UK no wounder it spread 

It didn't spread in the first lockdown. Daily positive test case numbers  halved every two weeks through April, May and June.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Folk have been asking if the situation with hospitalisations aren't just the same as in most years.

Well here's the data from London. If the lockdown doesn't work, the rest of us are 2-3 weeks behind London.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200855376875523

[SydneyRover]

And it takes a lot more nurses and doctors ot look after ICU cases which will stretch resources.

[albie]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

[roversdude]

BFYP.

Look at the graph.

Why wasn't that happening in October and early November, but suddenly started happening around late Nov?

Something very significant seems to have changed in late Nov. That ties in exactly with the start of the spread of the new variant.

Doesn’t it also tie in with the traditional flu season

[BillyStubbsTears]

How would that affect it?

[MachoMadness]

Posting this image from that link for those who don't do Twitter, and also because it genuinely shocked me.

[Ldr]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie

[River Don]

So today the BBC are reporting that the government is particularly worried about the numbers we see now and the threat to the NHS.

I despair. All this was predictable and predicted a few weeks ago. This didn't have to be. Now they are saying they are alarmed, like it's all come out of the blue.

Even now, we have a less strict lock down than we had last spring. And yet we know we are facing a more easily spread varient of the virus at a time of year and in weather that is more favourable to the virus.

It's nuts.

[rich1471]

Just been shopping at morrisons and some bloke was screaming at some poor woman saying I'm not wearing a mask Its not law I don't care

[no eyed deer]

I'm against lockdown. Cant do anything unless its work, which has  put me and has done all the way through this, In contact with many people.

Like a lot of others I'm not frightened of it. Take precautions to protect others.

If we got rid of phones we would not be in lockdown. This is how the future will now pan out and it truly is more scary than covid ever could be. Especially with 5G coming soon(no link to covid cases)

[Filo]

Just been shopping at morrisons and some bloke was screaming at some poor woman saying I'm not wearing a mask Its not law I don't care

He can be banned from the shop by Morrisons though, the selfish bas**rd

[BillyStubbsTears]

NED.

I don't get this "no lockdown but take precautions to protect others" line.

What do you think lockdown is for?

And how exactly do you protect others without lockdown?