Coronavirus

[no eyed deer]

NED.

I don't get this "no lockdown but take precautions to protect others" line.

What do you think lockdown is for?

And how exactly do you protect others without lockdown?

BST - you are running scared of covid.

You put every statistic under the microscope. Armageddon isn't upon us.

I use masks in public to put the elderly at peace. People who use the visors... come on they do very little but people see them as covid secure.

Whether it's to protect or appease I'll let you decide.

[albie]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie

Ldr,

I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.
Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.

The report also concludes that:
"Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."

The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.
Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.

[Ldr]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie

Ldr,

I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.
Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.

The report also concludes that:
"Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."

The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.
Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.

Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns

[River Don]

Ldr,

It isn't an unknown, we know about periodic pandemics, the last big one being in 1918. In some respects we have been lucky to go for so long without something like this emerging sooner. We are lucky in that this one has not been more deadly.

These things happen infrequently but we know they happen. Governments have been aware of the risk but down the years have become complacent.

[Ldr]

Ldr,

It isn't an unknown, we know about periodic pandemics, the last big one being in 1918. In some respects we have been lucky to go for so long without something like this emerging sooner. We are lucky in that this one has not been more deadly.

These things happen infrequently but we know they happen. Governments have been aware of the risk but down the years have become complacent.

So you waste money by having capacity which goes unused 99% of the time just in case of that once in a lifetime event? Unbelievable

Its the equivalent of us having a 50k capability stadium on the off chance we get that one big cup tie

[River Don]

Alright Ldr,

It's not worth planning for then. Only as recently as 2013, we had a system better system for dealing with communicable diseases, just this sort of thing and they changed it and made cuts. No doubt at the time it was seen as a reasonable saving.

My only point is, not so long ago the NHS was better prepared. You pays your money, you takes your choice.

[ravenrover]

Didn't know phones passed on Covid. Best not answer mine again, leave it to the wife

[BillyStubbsTears]

We spend significantly less on health as a percentage of GDP than most other developed countries.

We have chosen, as a political decision, to run our health system with very little spare capacity. If you do that, it is inevitable that sooner or later, you max out and the economic consequences ripple through society.

I was at a conference 19 years ago where the keynote speaker was a White House adviser. He said his job was to look at the consequences of stripping out excess capacity in socio-economic systems. Everything from the electricity grid to health care. He said his research terrified him because he had come to realise how vulnerable capitalist countries were to what he called "cascading failure." One system gets overwhelmed and falls over and the shock waves ripple out and knock other systems over, so the overall effect is massively amplified.

We saw that happen with the banking crisis. We've had it with COVID to some extent in that, because we have so little NHS spare capacity, we've had to impose stringent lockdowns.

[Ldr]

Too true BST

[normal rules]

You’ve got to love the bbc. Headline on their online page now.

‘More than 80,000 covid deaths reported in the UK.”

There is no doubt a big difference between those that have died with it, of it and have died of something else but just happened to have had a positive test in the month before their death.

It makes me so angry. What’s worse is we will never know the real stats of those that have died of it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NR
Take a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.

[wilts rover]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie

Ldr,

I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.
Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.

The report also concludes that:
"Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."

The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.
Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.

Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns

No - you do regular disaster planning so you know your system can deal with an 'expected' disaster.

Then when it shows you can't, because you have stripped the service of funding, staff and buildings as it is your political philosophy - you keep it from the public

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/what-was-exercise-cygnus-and-what-did-it-find

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Yet still we spend more on health than ever before, continue to have a fully free health service for all (unlike most countries in the world) and continue to see the % of public finances spent on health increase.

I wonder how we could increase it further? Tax rises?  Would that go down well?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

All countries are spending more on health year-on-year.

Here's a thought. How about if it was sold as, "pay 1% more in income tax and your kids will have 10 years more healthy life than your parents did?"

I've never understood this obsession with minimising tax take and ignoring the resultant hit on quality of life.

[no eyed deer]

NR
Take a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.

BST  the death total can fluctuate by 10,000s a year.

We need transparency and we dont have it !

[wilts rover]

Yet still we spend more on health than ever before, continue to have a fully free health service for all (unlike most countries in the world) and continue to see the % of public finances spent on health increase.

I wonder how we could increase it further? Tax rises?  Would that go down well?

No not true. According to offical governemt figures spending on health care, per person, has fallen since 2013.

We are average for the OECD and 2nd lowest for G7 and one of the lowest in Western Europe.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29

Of couse we are about to start spending £300 million per week extra on the NHS now we have left the EU. Aren't we?

[BillyStubbsTears]

NR
Take a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.

BST  the death total can fluctuate by 10,000s a year.

We need transparency and we dont have it !

NED.

This feels like bashing my head against a wall but I'll try again.

We have had 100,000+ excess deaths this year over the 5 year average.

And here's the thing.

That has happened WITH THE LOCKDOWN.

Given that this virus doubles infections every 3-4 days without mitigation measures, and given that 1% of all people who get it die, have a think how many excess deaths there would have been in the absence of a lockdown.

And I'll repeat again. There is only one city in the entire world that had a totally unmitigated COVID outbreak. In Bergamo, 0.6% of all the people in the city died in four weeks.

0.6% of the population. In four weeks.

Scale that up to the size of the UK. That would be 400,000 deaths. In a month.

THAT is what you were saved from by lockdowns. What is it about that that is so hard to grasp?

[tyke1962]

I've had news tonight of losing a lad I knew very well for over 45 years due to this awful virus .

A lad who shared the same passion as me for my club at a time in the 70's at school when things in the old fourth division weren't great .

A lad who I've seen at away games for god knows how many years and drank in the Dove pre match 5 minutes from Oakwell .

A lad with twin daughters , a husband a father , a grandad , my heart goes out to you all .

Rob ain't just some statistic on a news bulletin or a NHS press release he was a person with a life and hopes of a longer one with family and friends who loved him deeply .

I remember the last conversation we had and you said we aren't down till the fat lady sings and what does she know anyway .... my word you were right .

Sorry for the emotion on a rovers platform but I'm absolutely gutted by this and want to at least make the point that this thing is real , tragic and isn't just an another covid fatality .

When you know someone for the greater part of your life its something entirely different .

Keep safe everyone , we are so fragile at this moment in our lives .

RIP ROB .

[River Don]

Sorry for your loss Tyke. The reality becomes so stark when it happens to someone close.

I've just found out one of my best mates from school has it. We used to go to a lot of Rovers games and travelled away a lot too. He's given it to all his family, his ex wife, her cleaner, several people at work and the staff at a local fish and chip shop.

He doesn't feel well and is very tired all the time but he picked it up before Christmas so I'm guessing he's past the danger period and into long Covid symptoms. Fingers crossed.

It's noticeable now how more and more people on here are either getting it or know someone who has.

[Ldr]

The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

This is a political decision.
So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.

Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie

Ldr,

I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.
Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.

The report also concludes that:
"Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."

The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.
Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.

Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns

No - you do regular disaster planning so you know your system can deal with an 'expected' disaster.

Then when it shows you can't, because you have stripped the service of funding, staff and buildings as it is your political philosophy - you keep it from the public

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/what-was-exercise-cygnus-and-what-did-it-find

Yeah and we all agree how wrong that is

[Ldr]

BFYP.

All countries are spending more on health year-on-year.

Here's a thought. How about if it was sold as, "pay 1% more in income tax and your kids will have 10 years more healthy life than your parents did?"

I've never understood this obsession with minimising tax take and ignoring the resultant hit on quality of life.

Id be happy with that

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well here's a surprise. The man who repeatedly lied to bring you Brexit is now unambiguously lying about his Govt's response to the new COVID variant.

https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1347274149274791936

Not really something we should be surprised at. He's lied throughout his professional and personal life. Why should we expect him to be truthful while an epidemic rages out of control on his watch?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Condolences on losing that friend Tyke. That must hurt like hell. I'm lucky that it hasn't taken anyone close to me and most of my close elderly relatives have been or are about to be vaccinated. I can't imagine what it feels like to have this happen to someone close, and still have to hear the idiocy of the deniers pouring out over social media. Thoughts are with you.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP.

All countries are spending more on health year-on-year.

Here's a thought. How about if it was sold as, "pay 1% more in income tax and your kids will have 10 years more healthy life than your parents did?"

I've never understood this obsession with minimising tax take and ignoring the resultant hit on quality of life.

Again BST much tougher on the younger generation with huge mortgages or rents than it is for those that are older with much cheaper mortgages, better pensions etc.  Indeed even kier starmer this morning is opposed to council tax rises.  1% additional tax would be damaging to me it absolutely would.

[no eyed deer]

NR
Take a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.

BST  the death total can fluctuate by 10,000s a year.

We need transparency and we dont have it !

NED.

This feels like bashing my head against a wall but I'll try again.

We have had 100,000+ excess deaths this year over the 5 year average.

And here's the thing.

That has happened WITH THE LOCKDOWN.

Given that this virus doubles infections every 3-4 days without mitigation measures, and given that 1% of all people who get it die, have a think how many excess deaths there would have been in the absence of a lockdown.

And I'll repeat again. There is only one city in the entire world that had a totally unmitigated COVID outbreak. In Bergamo, 0.6% of all the people in the city died in four weeks.

0.6% of the population. In four weeks.

Scale that up to the size of the UK. That would be 400,000 deaths. In a month.

THAT is what you were saved from by lockdowns. What is it about that that is so hard to grasp?

4 out of every 5 deaths are over 70. Not only that but the clinical vulnerable. THIS is why I fell I'm bashing my head against a wall

[BillyStubbsTears]

And what is your point NED? That those lives don't matter?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.
I agree with your point about the financial position of the young. That is the biggest failing of my generation and the one above it.

But if everyone had had the "no more tax" attitude 75 years ago, there's never have been an NHS.

Me, I'd start with a wealth tax. People with combined property, savings and pension funds above £1m pay 1% of that per year in tax. Start to address the shocking transfer of wealth that has occurred from the younger to the older generation.

[no eyed deer]

And what is your point NED? That those lives don't matter?

Come on BST ? Please....my mum was in her early 70s when she passed away just before the first lockdown. If it was march it could so easily have been put down to covid when it wasnt.

That's my point.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NED.

I'm sorry, that was insensitive. But I still don't see your point. There have been 100,000 more deaths this past year than we would normally expect. What do you think has caused them if not COVID. It is real. It kills and harms people. Without control, it will kill tens of thousands a week.

[ravenrover]

The Sage woman said this morning the lockdown is not severe enough and that there will be 10s of thousands dead in the next few weeks if restrictions are not tightened. With over a 1000 deaths a day currently it won't take long for her to be proved correct. Hancockup wouldn't say if restrictions should be tightened. Anyone tell me why Pet Parlours, Churches, Carpet shops, DIY shops, Nurseries/Playgroups are able to stay open this time around? Are they really essential? Why does it appear that more people are classing themselves as key workers this time round and dropping their children off at school I heard that in some instances school classes are up to 50% full with key workers children might as well have them open to all children. Social distancing seems to have gone out the window and not just in the younger people, on our daily walks the number of people of all age groups who no longer move aside or give way is getting ridiculous. We are in for a rough couple of months and don't let the younger people think they are immune yes the high death rate may well be in the older but 1 in 5 are not and younger may well not die but that doesn't stop them taking up a bed in ICU putting pressure on the NHS