Coronavirus

[River Don]

I heard it was 2 weeks for the Pfizer and 3 weeks for the Oxford to take effect

That might be right. The first vaccinations were all Pfizer.

[ravenrover]

Indeed. The vaccines don’t necessarily stop you getting the virus, they just lessen the effects rendering you less likely to be hospitalised. They also do not prevent you passing on the virus.

NR I don't believe that there is enough research regarding transmission of the disease after having the jab JVT has said ask him that question in a few weeks

[BillyStubbsTears]

RR. There was an immunologist on R4 last night saying, early days and tentative findings but there was evidence emerging that the vaccine seemed to significantly reduce the viral load, which would lead to lower transmission rates.

16:45 here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rd1f

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remember the COVID-deniers across the country telling us that this was no worse a thing than a normal winter increase in deaths?

Look at the graphs in Section 2 here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8january2021

Excess deaths are WAY higher than anything we have seen in the last five years. Like 50% higher. Across England, there are 5-6000 people a week dying more than the average for this time of year (which is usually about 10,000 a week).

If you want to know who you can trust on this issue, see if the COVID-deniers point out this fact, like they were quick to point out that excess deaths were low in October.

[River Don]

If I'm looking at that graph properly BST,

Though there are many more deaths than usual this second wave isn't yet as deadly as the first wave was last spring, despite the high level of hospital admissions.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If I'm looking at that graph properly BST,

Though there are many more deaths than usual this second wave isn't yet as deadly as the first wave was last spring, despite the high level of hospital admissions.

RD. Yes you are right.

Several things contributing to that I think.

1) Look at Figure 3. The number of Non-COVID deaths is way below usual figures for this time of year. I'd guess that is mainly due to the long-term social distancing meaning that we are not having a  normal flu season.

2) This second/third wave has been long and drawn out. So there have been many more cases of COVID in the second/third wave than there were in the first, which was relatively short and very sharp. That means that there has been a long build-up of seriously ill (but surviving) patients in hospital, which I think is why hospitals are much more stretched now than they were in the first wave.

3) Treatments have improved which means more lives are being saved among people who are serious ill with COVID. But that means those people stay in hospital longer, compared to if they had died within a week of being admitted.

4) Then there's the issue that hasn't been discussed anywhere near enough about the first wave. Hospitals never got to being full. To a great extent because elderly people were sent out to care homes, where the virus was raging and they died in their thousands. One day, there will be an enquiry that gets to the bottom of who decided that policy. So there were terribly high deaths, without the hospitals being overwhelmed.

5) Final point. The data in that graph is still shy of the peak in deaths, which may, hopefully, have come over the weekend.

[River Don]

I imagine the first wave will have seen off some much older people just a little earlier than they would normally too. So covid got them last spring, rather than hanging on until flu got them this winter, if you see what I mean.

A larger roll out of winter flu vaccines this year will have contributed to stamping on the flu this winter too.

[Ldr]

If I'm looking at that graph properly BST,

Though there are many more deaths than usual this second wave isn't yet as deadly as the first wave was last spring, despite the high level of hospital admissions.

RD. Yes you are right.

Several things contributing to that I think.

1) Look at Figure 3. The number of Non-COVID deaths is way below usual figures for this time of year. I'd guess that is mainly due to the long-term social distancing meaning that we are not having a  normal flu season.

2) This second/third wave has been long and drawn out. So there have been many more cases of COVID in the second/third wave than there were in the first, which was relatively short and very sharp. That means that there has been a long build-up of seriously ill (but surviving) patients in hospital, which I think is why hospitals are much more stretched now than they were in the first wave.

3) Treatments have improved which means more lives are being saved among people who are serious ill with COVID. But that means those people stay in hospital longer, compared to if they had died within a week of being admitted.

4) Then there's the issue that hasn't been discussed anywhere near enough about the first wave. Hospitals never got to being full. To a great extent because elderly people were sent out to care homes, where the virus was raging and they died in their thousands. One day, there will be an enquiry that gets to the bottom of who decided that policy. So there were terribly high deaths, without the hospitals being overwhelmed.

5) Final point. The data in that graph is still shy of the peak in deaths, which may, hopefully, have come over the weekend.

6) the (apologies for the phrase) low hanging fruit has gone

[ian1980]

The positive cases has fallen slightly again today to 33k so it looks like that is on the downward slope now but registered deaths is 1610. The highest amount in a single day since it started so that looks to still be climbing and will probably be another week before we start to see that falling

[River Don]

I'm not sure about today's death figure. Sundays and Monday's death toll were quite low. I wonder if the figures have been delayed a bit more this week?

I would expect tomorrow's figure to be lower, perhaps back below 1,000.

Hospitalisations are still increasing and that remains the greatest concern.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The positive cases has fallen slightly again today to 33k so it looks like that is on the downward slope now but registered deaths is 1610. The highest amount in a single day since it started so that looks to still be climbing and will probably be another week before we start to see that falling

Back to the issue about this figure being the day the deaths are REPORTED. As RD suggests, this always goes up on a Tuesday because of them catching up on deaths that occurred over the weekend but weren't recorded then.

Looking at the deaths by the date they HAPPENED, it's looking clearer that we just about topped out at around 1050-1100 deaths per day around the weekend. No sign of it coming down yet but it does look like the rise has more or less stopped, which, in a grim overall picture is as good a bit of news as we could hope for.

[albie]

Useful summary of the Covid myths, and the debunking, is here;
https://www.covidfaq.co/

The who said what, and when, section is an interesting timeline of shapeshifting truths.

[drfchound]

We see the discussion about reported deaths almost every Tuesday.

[selby]

  Germany are having a bad time of it second time around, does that mean that no matter how the approach by the authorities is luck plays a major part in how things evolve, the 1139 deaths today over there comes as a big shock.

[SydneyRover]

Have a look at those countries that have managed it well and apply the same reasoning.

[Janso]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

[redarmy82]

Listening to various sources on the news this morning, we won't have any significant lifting of restrictions for at least another six months.

Number of vaccines per day is already falling.

[Axholme Lion]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

[Bentley Bullet]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If anyone was doing that BB, it would be disgraceful.

But given that no-one is, I'll ignore it as your usually WUMmery.

I assume you'll grow out of it one day, but it's a long, long process.

[wilts rover]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

Yes agreed. That is almost as bad as dismissing the situation in the UK, the worst death rate in the world, for political point scoring.

[Bentley Bullet]

I fear you will never grow out of your self-righteous, know-it-all, supercilious,  bullshittery at any time in the future BST. The biggest fear is that some people might actually think your silly responses like the one above has some semblance of truth.

[Bentley Bullet]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

Yes agreed. That is almost as bad as dismissing the situation in the UK, the worst death rate in the world, for political point scoring.

Yes agreed. I can only speak for myself in saying I don't do that, unlike your leader who feels he is divine enough to say NOBODY is guilty of embracing the current situation in the UK for political points scoring.

[wilts rover]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

Yes agreed. That is almost as bad as dismissing the situation in the UK, the worst death rate in the world, for political point scoring.

Yes agreed. I can only speak for myself in saying I don't do that, unlike your leader who feels he is divine enough to say NOBODY is guilty of embracing the current situation in the UK for political points scoring.

Well you appear to be speaking for three people there so by contradicitng yourself I am not sure how usefully anyone can take anything you have posted.

And as said in another subject on a different thread, I am quite capable of speaking for myself thanks.

[belton rover]

If anyone was doing that BB, it would be disgraceful.

But given that no-one is, I'll ignore it as your usually WUMmery.

I assume you'll grow out of it one day, but it's a long, long process.

What a remarkable statement.
No one?

[Bentley Bullet]

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

Yes agreed. That is almost as bad as dismissing the situation in the UK, the worst death rate in the world, for political point scoring.

Yes agreed. I can only speak for myself in saying I don't do that, unlike your leader who feels he is divine enough to say NOBODY is guilty of embracing the current situation in the UK for political points scoring.

Well you appear to be speaking for three people there so by contradicitng yourself I am not sure how usefully anyone can take anything you have posted.

And as said in another subject on a different thread, I am quite capable of speaking for myself thanks.

But then how would he be able to make his silly little jingoistic digs? 

Really weird that he's effectively celebrating people's deaths because they happen to be from another country and it helps him make some bizarre point.

Or maybe just pointing out that the major power running the EU are suffering as well? I doubt he is celebrating people's deaths, that is a silly thing to say.

And even if were true that he was celebrating people's deaths (it isn't), it's no worse than embracing the situation in the UK for political point-scoring.

Yes agreed. That is almost as bad as dismissing the situation in the UK, the worst death rate in the world, for political point scoring.

Yes agreed. I can only speak for myself in saying I don't do that, unlike your leader who feels he is divine enough to say NOBODY is guilty of embracing the current situation in the UK for political points scoring.

Well you appear to be speaking for three people there so by contradicitng yourself I am not sure how usefully anyone can take anything you have posted.

And as said in another subject on a different thread, I am quite capable of speaking for myself thanks.

What three people am I speaking for?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't remember addressing you Belton. Would you be so kind as to not intrude on someone else's discussion? Consistency and all that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, rising above the need of some people to turn this into an argument about arguing, out there in the real world it is looking pretty certain now that the daily deaths based on the day they HAPPENED, rather than the day they were reported, peaked around last Friday-Sunday. We won't know for definite for a week or so, as extra registrations trickle into the records. But this is very good news. That means the deaths have turned the corner much sooner after the new cases peaked than had looked likely. That will probably mean 10-20,000 will live who we might have expected to die if the new deaths had continued rising for another week or two. It'll be interesting to see why that has happened. if it is the vaccine kicking in, then those who have got it out there so quickly deserve the very highest praise.

[belton rover]

Of course Billy, my mistake.

So if I could directly address you:
I was wondering if you had any views on people embracing this Covid situation for political point scoring?

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, you are pathetic!