Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 25, 2021, 08:13:26 am

Login with username, password and session length

@vscofficial

Links


FSA logo

Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 223208 times)

redarmy82 and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

selby

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 6912
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9360 on January 12, 2021, 11:08:29 am by selby »
  River Don, is your old Nan thumpers mum?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9361 on January 12, 2021, 12:38:13 pm by River Don »
That's a bit cryptic Selby.

The only Thumper I know of is a Disney rabbit and my nan couldn't abide cartoons.

Janso

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 910
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9362 on January 12, 2021, 06:10:25 pm by Janso »
My mum had a rabbit. Selfish cow never let me see it though. I always wondered where the hutch was...

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9363 on January 12, 2021, 06:27:31 pm by River Don »
The death toll is sadly very high today but at least the number of new infections does seem to be falling. 45,500.

With luck and the continued vaccination roll out, we'll see the downward trend continue from here on in.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9364 on January 12, 2021, 06:43:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I'd say cautious optimism on the new infection numbers RD.

The trend in daily reported numbers does look to be turning the corner. On straight day-to-day comparison, today's new cases are down 25% on those from last Tuesday. Even on the numbers when you take them as a rolling 7-day average to smooth out the daily variations (see graph below) it looks like we have turned the corner. But that needs some context. That is the daily numbers of cases logged by the day they are REPORTED. It's very clear looking at the data that there were big surges in numbers reported immediately after the two holiday weekends. That shows up very clearly in the black line, which was starting to flatten out just before Xmas, then paused over the Xmas period, then surged upwards after the holiday, before levelling off again. That most recent levelling off MIGHT just be the one-time Xmas-surge, plus something of a delayed reporting effect of cases logged over the holiday working their way through the numbers. So it's possible that what looks like a very good fall over the last week is just a one-time reversion to trend. At the moment, I wouldn't like to call what the background trend direction is. Hopefully, if we'll see the fall continue for another week or so, it will mean that the lockdown is getting on top of the background  trend.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9365 on January 12, 2021, 06:47:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
O and for completeness, the graph below is the same data, but with the new daily cases given by the date of the test, not the date the test was reported. (and the deaths given by date of death, not date that the deaths were reported).

This graph gets rid of the effect in the delay in reporting the cases over the Xmas holiday. And it is a bit more worrying. it looks like there was a genuine post-Xmas surge of new cases in the week after Xmas, which then levelled off. But the data here suggests that the  numbers might just have started going back up again after the new year. It's not easy to tell, because there is a delay in collating the most recent data, so these figures are always 7-10 days behind. Again, hopefully these will start to drop over the next week.

bpoolrover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4279
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9366 on January 12, 2021, 07:35:29 pm by bpoolrover »
At the hospital my wife works at the numbers have decreased at the minute not by a lot but still a good sign

albie

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2042
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9367 on January 13, 2021, 05:18:18 pm by albie »
Record death toll today, over 1500, taking the overall figure to 100,000 plus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/uk-coronavirus-deaths-pass-100000

Despite this, still no clear plan from Boris Numpty Trumpty and his mates in the bunker.
Summed up by George Monbiot today;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/13/scary-covid-leaders-no-plan-to-control-pandemic-cycle

How we get out of this spin cycle needs to be explained, before we all lose heart.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 05:30:06 pm by albie »

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9368 on January 13, 2021, 06:40:03 pm by River Don »
Allie,

The death toll is shockingly high today but at least the new infections figure is down quite a bit on last week.

We're destined to see deaths remain high for a while yet and the sad fact it was all predicted before Christmas.

At least things are moving in the right direction now. It's like turning a supertanker.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9369 on January 13, 2021, 06:46:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
New deaths figure is very misleading. That's the data based on the day the deaths were reported and it's always much higher than the true value in midweek, because it's catching up with deaths that occurred over the weekend but have only just been reported.

Looking at deaths by the day they occurred, we are probably at about 800-850 or so a day at the moment. Still bad enough but not as bad as that headline number.

ravenrover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5476
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9370 on January 13, 2021, 07:00:12 pm by ravenrover »
Not just deaths over the weekend but also deaths that were not reported in that 28 day period

SydneyRover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5114
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9371 on January 13, 2021, 11:52:04 pm by SydneyRover »
How effective can any vaccine can be, will you only know personally if you don't contract the virus?
 
Scientists can't test us yet to see if the jab is effective as they don't know the level of antibodies required to fight off the virus, (true/false)? Scientists are not allowed to give the live virus to patients so the results of thousands of volunteers are monitored to see how many get the virus and of course how many don't over time, the results being updated at intervals.

When a vaccine is said to be 60% effective does it mean that 6 out of 10 on average will not suffer from the worst effects of the virus?


BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9372 on January 13, 2021, 11:58:06 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
60% effective means this.

Look at two identical groups of people. 1 group gets vaccinated but doesn't know it is the vaccine they've had.

The other group gets a placebo but doesn't know it was a placebo.

Both groups go out to live their lives the way folk live their lives. Some will be careful. Some won't. Some will be lucky. Some won't. The groups are big enough that these variations from person to person cancel out.

Several weeks later, the group that had the vaccine has seen 60% fewer COVID cases than the group that had the placebo.

SydneyRover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5114
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9373 on January 14, 2021, 12:07:46 am by SydneyRover »
Cheers Billy

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9374 on January 14, 2021, 12:15:22 am by BillyStubbsTears »
No worries Sydney.

Meanwhile...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55649426

Hey, HERE's a thought! Imagine what effect lockdown might have had if it had happened BEFORE the Xmas surge?!?

SydneyRover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5114
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9375 on January 14, 2021, 12:48:33 am by SydneyRover »
On the subject of acting quickly and accepting facts there was an encouraging article today pointing out how number 10/johnson is maybe changing since the cummings exit and uses the school meals episode as an example.

''Rashford has Johnson grovelling again – but this time is different''

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/13/marcus-rashford-boris-johnson-grovelling-free-school-meals

albie

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2042
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9376 on January 14, 2021, 12:48:55 am by albie »
BST,

Well this might be a pointer;
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1349303148310106119/photo/1

As it says in the comments, what was the impact of the delay when Sunak sent in the Great Barringtons to bat against the weak minded PM?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9377 on January 14, 2021, 09:26:47 am by River Don »
Apparently a minister has said we are not yet limiting travel from Brazil because of the economic burden. They insist they are not moving slowly but monitoring the situation.

They will never learn. They will have one hell of an economic burden if they allow another more virulent strain to take hold. They have probably already delayed too long as it is.

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 24814
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9378 on January 14, 2021, 09:54:57 am by Filo »
Apparently a minister has said we are not yet limiting travel from Brazil because of the economic burden. They insist they are not moving slowly but monitoring the situation.

They will never learn. They will have one hell of an economic burden if they allow another more virulent strain to take hold. They have probably already delayed too long as it is.

Yvette Cooper ripped into the PM about this yesterday, he just starred at his desk when trying to avoid any coherent answer

wilts rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7156
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9379 on January 14, 2021, 05:10:12 pm by wilts rover »
Fascinating. In case you thought it was a modern phenomenon - Anti-vaxxers burned copies of their vaccination summonses whilst singing Rule Britannia. Report in the Times on the ant-smallpox vaccination movement in 1885:

https://twitter.com/NewsUKArchives/status/1349672887305850885

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9380 on January 14, 2021, 08:12:25 pm by River Don »
This doesn't look good. London ICUs are becoming so stretched, they are having to transfer patients to Northampton, Birmingham, Sheffield and as far north as Newcastle.

Hospital admissions still seem to be rising.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/struggling-london-hospitals-sending-covid-patients-to-newcastle

This also caught my notice.

"International research has shown that before the pandemic, the UK had one of the smallest numbers of ICU beds per 100,000 people among developed nations. Germany had 29 such beds per 100,000 population and the US had 25, while Britain had just 6.6.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 08:19:14 pm by River Don »

ravenrover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5476
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9381 on January 14, 2021, 09:32:49 pm by ravenrover »
I hope that figure didn't surprise you!

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9382 on January 14, 2021, 09:38:01 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This doesn't look good. London ICUs are becoming so stretched, they are having to transfer patients to Northampton, Birmingham, Sheffield and as far north as Newcastle.

Hospital admissions still seem to be rising.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/struggling-london-hospitals-sending-covid-patients-to-newcastle

This also caught my notice.

"International research has shown that before the pandemic, the UK had one of the smallest numbers of ICU beds per 100,000 people among developed nations. Germany had 29 such beds per 100,000 population and the US had 25, while Britain had just 6.6.

So what on earth was the point of that Nightingale hospital at the ExEl centre?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9383 on January 14, 2021, 09:49:50 pm by River Don »
BST

It's a good question. It seems they would rather risk shipping very sick people hundreds of miles, than risk putting them in a local, converted exhibition centre without proper care.

It looks like it's the lack of staff that's the issue.

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 24814
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9384 on January 14, 2021, 09:55:27 pm by Filo »
This doesn't look good. London ICUs are becoming so stretched, they are having to transfer patients to Northampton, Birmingham, Sheffield and as far north as Newcastle.

Hospital admissions still seem to be rising.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/struggling-london-hospitals-sending-covid-patients-to-newcastle

This also caught my notice.

"International research has shown that before the pandemic, the UK had one of the smallest numbers of ICU beds per 100,000 people among developed nations. Germany had 29 such beds per 100,000 population and the US had 25, while Britain had just 6.6.

So what on earth was the point of that Nightingale hospital at the ExEl centre?

Good PR at the time, never intended for use in my opinion

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 24814
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9385 on January 14, 2021, 10:07:31 pm by Filo »
No figures published today either

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 4885
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9386 on January 14, 2021, 10:33:00 pm by River Don »
No figures published today either

BBC News has just shown them.

48,000+ new cases, 1,200+ dead.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9387 on January 14, 2021, 11:33:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
New deaths figure is very misleading. That's the data based on the day the deaths were reported and it's always much higher than the true value in midweek, because it's catching up with deaths that occurred over the weekend but have only just been reported.

Looking at deaths by the day they occurred, we are probably at about 800-850 or so a day at the moment. Still bad enough but not as bad as that headline number.

OK, so unfortunately I was WAY too optimistic with those numbers yesterday. I've just looked again in detail at the average daily deaths by sate of death. We were already at 850 a week ago. Given the way the numbers are rising, I reckon we are probably at about 1000 already today as a 7 day average. We won't know that for definite until this time next week, when the numbers for this week's deaths have all been recorded but it looks bloody grim. The highest average daily death figure we had back in April was 976. we are likely at or above that already. And we almost certainly still haven't seen the bulk of deaths from the Xmas surge yet, before the effect of the lockdown and hopefully the vaccinations start to kick in in 7-10 days time. Fingers crossed, there should be a sharp fall off in daily deaths after that, but we'll probably see daily headline figures pushing 2000 deaths before then, and a total number of deaths around 100k before the numbers peak.

Stay safe everyone. This is no time for getting ill.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 25213
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9388 on January 15, 2021, 04:40:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Looking like good news on the vaccination front. We were up to 320,000 in a single day yesterday. If we managed that, just five days a week from now to Easter, we'd pretty much have all the top 9 most vulnerable categories covered with a first dose.

And I'd expect the daily rate to continue going up and there to be some vaccinations over the weekend.

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 24814
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #9389 on January 15, 2021, 04:47:56 pm by Filo »
Looking like good news on the vaccination front. We were up to 320,000 in a single day yesterday. If we managed that, just five days a week from now to Easter, we'd pretty much have all the top 9 most vulnerable categories covered with a first dose.

And I'd expect the daily rate to continue going up and there to be some vaccinations over the weekend.

24/7 is the way to go, I’d certainly go in the middle of the night to get vaccinated