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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 397899 times)

BillyStubbsTears, bpoolrover and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10860 on May 07, 2021, 06:19:15 pm by ravenrover »
But the reason they are doing this is to avoid spending isolation in a Govt hotel at £1700 per person and be able to "quarantine" at home. If the housing situation in Nottingham is anything to go by with extended families in one house there is no room to isolate at their home, all that is happening is that they could potentiallybecome a super spreader within their own household and in the general population at large. The horse on this one bolted weeks ago, we are in a spot of bother already IMHO



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bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10861 on May 07, 2021, 10:16:10 pm by bpoolrover »
I agree Raven but many would avoid to having to isolate full stop, the only way to stop variants is to ban all travel coming in the country?

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10862 on May 10, 2021, 04:33:01 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
For the first time since last march I believe, today England recorded 0 deaths from covid.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10863 on May 10, 2021, 04:44:38 pm by River Don »
For the first time since last march I believe, today England recorded 0 deaths from covid.

The BBC have just announced 4.

Edit. Just noticed, England. That 4 might be UK.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10864 on May 10, 2021, 04:51:32 pm by River Don »
Just waiting for the press conference. I'm sure one of the expert talking heads on the news said the Indian variant numbers are doubling everyday in breakout areas... If that's right, then that's exponential growth again.

Is lifting restrictions at this moment wise?

I'm assuming someone will ask this question at the end of the press conference.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10865 on May 10, 2021, 05:16:54 pm by River Don »
Well Whitty says they are keeping a close eye on the Indian varient because it is increasing but from very low levels.

Those levels won't remain low for long if it is doubling daily. I'm not entirely reassured about this.

Edit. He's just said they don't have enough data yet and things can come out of the blue sky but they don't think it's as bad as the South African varient.

Fingers crossed.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 05:30:30 pm by River Don »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10866 on May 10, 2021, 06:43:07 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Great to see the death figures down so low but we are a long way from the finish line on COVID. I'm certainly not a virologist but my limited understanding is that the chances of dangerous mutations come precisely when there are high levels of immunity to the existing  strains, but still high levels of infection in the community. That is why flu mutates so readily, often into more dangerous forms.

We still have something like 100,000 people infected and the new daily infections have pretty much stopped falling. So the total number of infected people is unlikely to drop any further from here, and in fact is likely to rise as we unlock. Fingers crossed that doesn't lead to the emergence of a vaccine-resistant new strain.

Meantime, while it is great that we are where we are, given where we were at the New Year, we must not forget the devastating mistake of delaying lock down during December. Looking at how new infections have fallen from the peak, it is clear that if we had locked down in mid-December rather than waiting until early Jan, we would have got new daily infections down to the level they are currently at by early March. Delaying a couple of weeks has meant that the lockdown has had to be two MONTHS longer. And we knew that would be the case at the time, these figures have merely confirmed it. Anyone who EVER again says that delaying lockdown came from a difficult choice between protecting against infection while not damaging the economy should be made to wear a dunces' hat for the rest of their lives and physically restrained from having any position of responsibility higher than wiping their own arse.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10867 on May 10, 2021, 07:57:04 pm by ravenrover »
Or those of their chums

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10868 on May 12, 2021, 02:45:42 pm by River Don »
The news about the Indian varient is getting no better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Experience tells us that if we don't act, then things can get out of hand very rapidly.

I'd suggest we should be holding off on opening up any further now. This thing is doubling every week, that kind of exponential growth is dangerous when we are still not clear on how effective the vaccines are against this varient.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10869 on May 12, 2021, 03:30:05 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
COVID public inquiry not to start until Spring next year?

Why? Govt has given no reason.

Meanwhile, in entirely unrelated news, an expert told the BBC that it would take the inquiry at least 2, probably three years to produce a report. Meaning that it won't report on the disastrous decisions made by this Govt in 2020 until after the next election.

I get the feeling that democratic accountability is evaporating before our very eyes.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10870 on May 12, 2021, 03:48:59 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The news about the Indian varient is getting no better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Experience tells us that if we don't act, then things can get out of hand very rapidly.

I'd suggest we should be holding off on opening up any further now. This thing is doubling every week, that kind of exponential growth is dangerous when we are still not clear on how effective the vaccines are against this varient.



Rolling average of new cases has started rising again for the first time since we locked down in jan. Small numbers at the moment, and of course most of the very vulnerable people are vaccinated now so it's unlikely to lead to an immediate increase in deaths. But like I said the other day, these are very much the conditions in which new variants can emerge. Feels like a critical time coming up.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10871 on May 12, 2021, 04:06:57 pm by bpoolrover »
The news about the Indian varient is getting no better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Experience tells us that if we don't act, then things can get out of hand very rapidly.

I'd suggest we should be holding off on opening up any further now. This thing is doubling every week, that kind of exponential growth is dangerous when we are still not clear on how effective the vaccines are against this varient.


problem you have there were many experts saying schools should not re open when they did as numbers would massively rise, it was not the case, how long do you keep things shut for at my local hospital there are no patients in intensive care no deaths for 2 weeks and 2 or 3 people in hospital that are at no danger of death, that’s covering around 200k people, how can you justify keeping things shut?

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10872 on May 12, 2021, 04:22:07 pm by Bentley Bullet »
My grandad tried to warn them about the Titanic. He shouted about the iceberg and how the ship was going to sink, but all they did was throw him out of the cinema.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10873 on May 12, 2021, 05:49:37 pm by River Don »
The news about the Indian varient is getting no better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Experience tells us that if we don't act, then things can get out of hand very rapidly.

I'd suggest we should be holding off on opening up any further now. This thing is doubling every week, that kind of exponential growth is dangerous when we are still not clear on how effective the vaccines are against this varient.


problem you have there were many experts saying schools should not re open when they did as numbers would massively rise, it was not the case, how long do you keep things shut for at my local hospital there are no patients in intensive care no deaths for 2 weeks and 2 or 3 people in hospital that are at no danger of death, that’s covering around 200k people, how can you justify keeping things shut?

Keep in my mind this is a new varient and still at very low levels. What's gone before is different, we've been dealing with the first and Kent variants. When they talk of another wave, this is really what it means, something that has changed quite significantly.

I'd say hold off for two or three weeks, we need the time to find out how resistant this thing is to the vaccine. They can't answer that question yet.

We''ve been in lockdown for ages now a couple more weeks won't make a lot of difference to be on the safe side. If we risk it and there is a serious problem, then we could be heading for months more of restrictions.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 05:53:31 pm by River Don »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10874 on May 12, 2021, 06:37:14 pm by bpoolrover »
Again what if the numbers are the same in 2 or 3 weeks and the same experts say we need to not open for a few more weeks, before you no it summer is over, unfortunately while there is no proof that the Indian variant is any more dangerous than the Kent one you have to open in my opinion

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10875 on May 12, 2021, 07:17:13 pm by River Don »
They should have more idea what risk it poses by then though.

I just don't think it's wise letting people mingle at close quarters indoors when there is a more transmissible varient around that might be very vacinne resistant.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10876 on May 12, 2021, 07:19:52 pm by bpoolrover »
I get where your coming from and you might be right but this virus is going nowhere in a hurry and there will be some reason to keep things shut for the foreseeable future and you will always have experts saying different things, by the looks of it the majority seem to think we should open

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10877 on May 12, 2021, 07:33:41 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Experts predict this disease isn't ever going away completely so we've got to live with it because we can't hide from it forever.

EVERYBODY knows there will be casualties so NOBODY can claim righteousness when it happens.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10878 on May 12, 2021, 07:34:23 pm by River Don »
I don't think I have heard any expert say they're not concerned about this varient yet.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10879 on May 12, 2021, 08:26:28 pm by bpoolrover »
They all are concerned of course but there will be others all the time, we just can’t stay closed on the off chance

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10880 on May 12, 2021, 08:53:12 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
There is a positive though and the new variant is predominantly appearing in under 25s who of course are yet to be vaccinated. That's good news as potentially means the vaccine still working.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10881 on May 12, 2021, 09:48:39 pm by River Don »
They all are concerned of course but there will be others all the time, we just can’t stay closed on the off chance

This one is of particular concern. One Less transmissible variant of it in India is thought to be vacinne resistant.

It's no good saying, well we've got to live with it and lett it run wild.

If we don’t keep the lid on their spread we may end up with variants that are even better at evading our vaccines.

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10882 on May 12, 2021, 10:33:52 pm by normal rules »
Worrying stats in Bolton. In the last month cases have doubled with the appearance of the Indian variant. And the pubs are about to open. The upsurge has been directly attributed to overseas travel from India to Bolton. And it’s the in vaccinated that are being affected.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10883 on May 12, 2021, 10:56:07 pm by bpoolrover »
They all are concerned of course but there will be others all the time, we just can’t stay closed on the off chance

This one is of particular concern. One Less transmissible variant of it in India is thought to be vacinne resistant.

It's no good saying, well we've got to live with it and lett it run wild.

If we don’t keep the lid on their spread we may end up with variants that are even better at evading our vaccines.
I’ve not seen it say vaccine resistant just it maybe more transmissible

bpoolrover

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SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10885 on May 12, 2021, 11:09:17 pm by SydneyRover »
Worrying stats in Bolton. In the last month cases have doubled with the appearance of the Indian variant. And the pubs are about to open. The upsurge has been directly attributed to overseas travel from India to Bolton. And it’s the in vaccinated that are being affected.

''Bolton has one of the highest instances of the Indian variant in the UK and is seeing a particularly sharp rise in cases among unvaccinated under-25s''

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-57075618

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10886 on May 12, 2021, 11:10:51 pm by River Don »
From the FT.

Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge university and one of the leading scientists investigating new strains of Sars-Cov-2, told the Financial Times he had identified “worrying” cases of post-vaccination infection involving at least one of the new variants first identified in India — B.1.617.2

The B.1.617.1 variant has a particular mutation, known as E484Q, that is often associated with vaccine escape. That mutation is not present in the B.1.617.2 variant, which has spread from India to roughly 40 countries around the world, but it does have a different mutation called T478K, about which little is known.

“I’d put my money on the T487K mutation [causing breakthrough infections],” Gupta said.

https://www.ft.com/content/5f742765-61ac-4da6-8c6f-49119cd7d46c


I think that is enough of a worry to warrant caution in the UK now.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 11:14:33 pm by River Don »

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10887 on May 12, 2021, 11:20:36 pm by SydneyRover »
It would look like they were slow off he mark with the advice and possibly problems with quarantine. How does the government check that those that have travelled to India are not coming back via another country and or not being truthful?

UK gov't travel advice

''From 4am on Friday 23 April, visitors who have been in or transited through India in the previous 10 days cannot enter the UK. British and Irish nationals, and third country nationals with residence rights in the UK arriving in England from India will be required to quarantine in a hotel. Different requirements apply for arrivals into Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland''

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/india

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10888 on May 12, 2021, 11:48:02 pm by SydneyRover »
From the FT.

Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge university and one of the leading scientists investigating new strains of Sars-Cov-2, told the Financial Times he had identified “worrying” cases of post-vaccination infection involving at least one of the new variants first identified in India — B.1.617.2

The B.1.617.1 variant has a particular mutation, known as E484Q, that is often associated with vaccine escape. That mutation is not present in the B.1.617.2 variant, which has spread from India to roughly 40 countries around the world, but it does have a different mutation called T478K, about which little is known.

“I’d put my money on the T487K mutation [causing breakthrough infections],” Gupta said.

https://www.ft.com/content/5f742765-61ac-4da6-8c6f-49119cd7d46c


I think that is enough of a worry to warrant caution in the UK now.

I assume you would know RD, variants arise directly from the virus being rampant as shown in most countries where it has. The key has always been to suppress it, track and trace, quarantine, lockdown. Failure to implement any one or more of these and it's out of control again.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #10889 on May 12, 2021, 11:58:23 pm by River Don »
From the FT.

Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge university and one of the leading scientists investigating new strains of Sars-Cov-2, told the Financial Times he had identified “worrying” cases of post-vaccination infection involving at least one of the new variants first identified in India — B.1.617.2

The B.1.617.1 variant has a particular mutation, known as E484Q, that is often associated with vaccine escape. That mutation is not present in the B.1.617.2 variant, which has spread from India to roughly 40 countries around the world, but it does have a different mutation called T478K, about which little is known.

“I’d put my money on the T487K mutation [causing breakthrough infections],” Gupta said.

https://www.ft.com/content/5f742765-61ac-4da6-8c6f-49119cd7d46c


I think that is enough of a worry to warrant caution in the UK now.

I assume you would know RD, variants arise directly from the virus being rampant as shown in most countries where it has. The key has always been to suppress it, track and trace, quarantine, lockdown. Failure to implement any one or more of these and it's out of control again.

This varient has emerged in a place where there is a lot of the virus about. That said, the likelihood of a vacinne resistant mutation arising is great n a place where the virus is allowed to circulate alongside the vaccinated. This is the condition in the UK right now, so we must still be very cautious.

In an ideal world we'd role out a vacinne very rapidly, everywhere all at once but logistically that's impossible.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2021, 12:02:56 am by River Don »

 

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