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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860394 times)

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drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12930 on July 22, 2021, 05:50:12 pm by drfchound »
Strange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately

If that 39k is the start of a sustained drop in the rate of increase in new cases that would be absolutely brilliant news. Too early to tell.

My guess is it is down to kids' holidays so fewer school contacts. But that is likely to be at least balanced out by the relaxation of rules for everyone else. Hope I'm wrong and the new case number really do start falling.

Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.





BST, do you think that the government might have picked 19th July BECAUSE of the fewer school contacts due to school holidays starting?

Yes of course they have. But that is one and only one parameter. In itself, in terms of the role of kids in spreading the virus, choosing that date is optimal. Whether that date is optimal for the overall picture of trying to minimise the threat of this wave is very, very unlikely. But obviously I very much hope it is.




I agree.
It appears to me and friends I have spoken to, that the discussion about when the best time to open up will continue to roll on.
Those with businesses, in the main, are happy it has been done while some others wanted to wait a bit longer.
I guess we will find out in the future which was the best.



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drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12931 on July 22, 2021, 06:53:47 pm by drfchound »
Albie, we read every day about how the uk is viewed by someone not living here, but thanks for the link.

On “freedom day”, surely “responsibility day” would be a better way of describing 19th July.

But not from someone with the standing of Professor Hanage, Hound!

We know personal responsibility cannot work, because it only takes a small proportion to opt out to derail the whole strategy......go to Tesco to see that for yourself.
It is just a con trick, to shift the blame from government for their lack of effective planning.

There is a bigger issue pushing through, because the threshold needed to reach HI is further away with more infections circulating.
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-why-hasnt-herd-immunity-stopped-covid

The increased transmissability of Delta, and the vulnerability of about 30% of the UK population, means we might need to do more, faster, to get to infection decline.

That also assumes no new breakout variant, which is encouraged by the current conditions.





Albie, I have been to tesco today and in the main, people were wearing a mask, as were staff.
Even before this week though some people (I assume exempt ones) didn’t bother with a mask.

As for prof Hanage, he may well be of high standing but how many times have we seen other professionals challenged by other scientists and experts.
I would think that there will be some others offering their thoughts.

no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12932 on July 22, 2021, 06:57:34 pm by no eyed deer »
How many on here a thick enough to still be using the NHS App. In a time when most adults are double vaccinated, the country is going to grind to a halt.

Let's have a bit a WW2 spirit and grow some balls

Far to many are pointing fingers.. if you want to wear mask , vaccinate and so on good, but dont class others as irresponsible. Some what to keep what little liberties they have left.

Why anyone would want an app that can snoop on you is beyond me. I don't do smart phones, but i have my vaccination certificate and that should be good enough. Surely it's better that more people get covid now if they're vaccinated so we can get it out of the way before winter. My life is passing me by here, there's always an element of risk involved in anything you do

 

This WW2 spirit. Did it involve having bonfire parties that showed the Luftwaffe where built up areas were?

No but sending your employees to work is safe, surely paying them to be at home would be in their best interest.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12933 on July 22, 2021, 08:17:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »


America is in some serious trouble. How the f**k do you deal with getting the economy back to normal when half of half of the population refuses to get vaccinated?

It's bad enough here where we only half 5-8% of the population who are flat-earther vaccine rejecters. Over there it will be carnage if they follow our lead.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12934 on July 22, 2021, 08:45:37 pm by drfchound »
I thought that it was ten percent of the adult population in the uk who were unlikely to take the vaccine BST.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12935 on July 22, 2021, 09:01:24 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Hound.

I assume your perceptive observation refers to my previous posts where I've said about 10% of over 40s (I think, or it may have been over 50s) are still particularly vulnerable.

As with many things, there are subtleties at play.

The 10% figure is roughly the number of people who have had plenty of chance to get 2 jabs by now, but have actually had only 1 or none at all. They are vulnerable.

About 8% of people over 40 haven't even had 1 dose. Those are predominantly the flat-earth regiment. But some (I've no idea how many) presumably have serious medical conditions which mean they can't take the vaccine.

Hence my guess at 5-8% being the really heels-in crew.

Hope that helped.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12936 on July 22, 2021, 09:05:34 pm by drfchound »
Not really BST and for the record I wasn’t referring to any of your posts on the topic.
I just felt sure that I had heard on a tv news bulletin that there looked like being around ten percent of the uk adults who would refuse to be vaccinated.
I’m not sure the aggressive tone of reply from you was necessary by the way.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12937 on July 22, 2021, 09:16:16 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Nothing aggressive Hound. Just wanting to be clear.

belton rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12938 on July 22, 2021, 09:23:47 pm by belton rover »
It seems he was playing the man again, Hound.

Apart from he NEVER does that.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12939 on July 22, 2021, 09:34:59 pm by BillyStubbsTears »


America is in some serious trouble. How the f**k do you deal with getting the economy back to normal when half of half of the population refuses to get vaccinated?

It's bad enough here where we only half 5-8% of the population who are flat-earther vaccine rejecters. Over there it will be carnage if they follow our lead.

Actually, stupid me. I didn't read that graph properly.

It actually suggests that it's not half of Trump voters not getting vaxed. It is more like 75% of the f**king idiots.

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12940 on July 22, 2021, 09:36:12 pm by DonnyOsmond »
It seems he was playing the man again, Hound.

Apart from he NEVER does that.

Looking at your recent posts you seem to the one antagonising things.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12941 on July 22, 2021, 10:01:15 pm by River Don »
Strange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately

If that 39k is the start of a sustained drop in the rate of increase in new cases that would be absolutely brilliant news. Too early to tell.

My guess is it is down to kids' holidays so fewer school contacts. But that is likely to be at least balanced out by the relaxation of rules for everyone else. Hope I'm wrong and the new case number really do start falling.

Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.

I have a feeling last weekend was the spike after all the mixing at the Euro Championship finals the weekend previously. It could be the numbers have fallen back since that event.

Now it remains to be seen whether the downward trend will continue after this weekend or if the numbers start rising again after 'freedom day' and the greater mixing thereafter.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12942 on July 22, 2021, 10:08:11 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
RD.
I'm not sure there WAS a spike. The doubling time has bounced around between 8-9 and 21-22 days for the past two months. A month ago it was at 9. Two weeks ago it was at 20. Last week it was at about 11. Currently it's about 14.

Just looks like natural variations to me.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12943 on July 22, 2021, 10:14:13 pm by River Don »
...you have a better grasp of how to read these trends than I, BST.

I just thought the big jump above 50,000 last weekend came five or 6 days after the Euro final when there was a lot of mixing. That's about the right amount of time for infections then to emerge isn't it?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12944 on July 22, 2021, 10:20:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You could well be right RD. If there's an underlying trend of doubling every 14 days, there would need to be some reason why it reduced to 9 days. A bit lazy of me just to say it is natural variations.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12945 on July 22, 2021, 10:28:04 pm by River Don »
There was also a big jump in infections in Rome last weekend apparently.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12946 on July 22, 2021, 10:40:40 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Don't forget there's other variables too. Schools were mentioned which has been a theme in this so caller wave. Scotland has receding cases now where schools finished 3 weeks ago. Universities also will now be fully closed to most students so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a drop shortly with that in mind. It was part of the reason some scientists agreed now is a good time to push for reopening.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12947 on July 22, 2021, 10:44:56 pm by drfchound »
Don't forget there's other variables too. Schools were mentioned which has been a theme in this so caller wave. Scotland has receding cases now where schools finished 3 weeks ago. Universities also will now be fully closed to most students so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a drop shortly with that in mind. It was part of the reason some scientists agreed now is a good time to push for reopening.






Which means that if it works out then lots of flapping about it was unnecessary.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12948 on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12949 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 am by dickos1 »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12950 on July 23, 2021, 07:06:49 am by drfchound »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?





Hindsight will tell us.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12951 on July 23, 2021, 07:56:18 am by wilts rover »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?





Hindsight will tell us.

And some people will excuse the government's actions whatever they turn out to be. A government that has droppd all restrictions whilst a pandemic is raging through its population - unlike every other country in the world and against WHO and apparently its own scientific advise.

The more people who have the disease the more disruption it will cause the health service and the economy.
Only 55% of the population (70% of all adults) have had two jabs.
Vaccines are not 100% effective and recent data shows there is a link between the more vulnerable you are - the less chance of the vaccine working.
2 million people received a shielding letter.
The more covid there is around, the more chance of a new, vaccine resistant varient emerging.

None of that is hindsight. It's all plain sight.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12952 on July 23, 2021, 08:04:08 am by drfchound »
Ok wilts, with your plain sight can you say when we will have a 100% effective vaccine, when will be be safe from new variants emerging and when will we be able to open up completely without having to worry about wearing masks and socially distance from each other.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12953 on July 23, 2021, 08:17:37 am by wilts rover »
At the beginning of the crises the WHO said 'No one is safe until everyone is safe'.

In my opinion anyone who worries about wearing a mask and socially distancing is the problem. If people are not prepared to take precautions to lessen the spread of a highyly dangerous invisible virus - then no foresight in the world is going to help. That's the issue with personal responsibilty - unresponsible people.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12954 on July 23, 2021, 08:18:19 am by wilts rover »

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12955 on July 23, 2021, 08:43:08 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
BFYP
"So called wave"?

Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?

Just don't like the phrase that's all.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12956 on July 23, 2021, 08:44:49 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
11 month old baby tests positive

https://twitter.com/bailey_jodie/status/1418292048923344900

Not a new thing sadly, my youngest had it 5 days after his first birthday.  Thankfully no symptoms and far less scary than when my eldest had meningitis at 6 months old.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12957 on July 23, 2021, 08:58:53 am by ravenrover »
How many on here a thick enough to still be using the NHS App. In a time when most adults are double vaccinated, the country is going to grind to a halt.

Let's have a bit a WW2 spirit and grow some balls

Far to many are pointing fingers.. if you want to wear mask , vaccinate and so on good, but dont class others as irresponsible. Some what to keep what little liberties they have left.

Why anyone would want an app that can snoop on you is beyond me. I don't do smart phones, but i have my vaccination certificate and that should be good enough. Surely it's better that more people get covid now if they're vaccinated so we can get it out of the way before winter. My life is passing me by here, there's always an element of risk involved in anything you do

 
Come on A L you are not normally shy at coming forward, what is this certificate you have? Is it the little card you were given aftet your jabs?

belton rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12958 on July 23, 2021, 09:27:46 am by belton rover »
It seems he was playing the man again, Hound.

Apart from he NEVER does that.

Looking at your recent posts you seem to the one antagonising things.

I’m not sure why you’d think think that, Donny. I’m quite entitled to comment on the hypocrisy of certain posters on here. Where else have I initiated antagonism?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12959 on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 am by BillyStubbsTears »
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.
Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.
The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them

How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?

The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.

 

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