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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 380705 times)

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no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12990 on July 24, 2021, 05:21:14 pm by no eyed deer »
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304

It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.

And how did the government know there was going to be another wave in the summer ?



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Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12991 on July 24, 2021, 06:47:05 pm by Filo »
31795 new infections today, the 4th day in a row the numbers have fallen

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12992 on July 24, 2021, 07:09:51 pm by dickos1 »
A drop of over 30% from this time last week

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12993 on July 24, 2021, 08:37:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304

It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.

And how did the government know there was going to be another wave in the summer ?

Because it was inevitable as soon as you relax restrictions. Johnson himself said last week that the roadmap plan unveiled in Feb envisioned an unlocking wave.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12994 on July 24, 2021, 09:11:10 pm by dickos1 »
Genuinely interested, the folk who were predicting Exponential growth. Why do we think this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment?
Restrictions have been relaxed, and if we’re honest many folk had started relaxing these long before it was official, we’ve had big sporting events, Wimbledon, euros, F1, theatres, concerts, nightclubs opening. Yet the cases are dropping, and quite significantly at the moment.
So without wanting an argument why do the people who were predicting the opposite think this is happening?

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12995 on July 24, 2021, 09:23:41 pm by bpoolrover »
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12996 on July 24, 2021, 09:37:09 pm by dickos1 »
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure

But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted.
It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros  effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12997 on July 24, 2021, 09:41:43 pm by River Don »
Genuinely interested, the folk who were predicting Exponential growth. Why do we think this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment?
Restrictions have been relaxed, and if we’re honest many folk had started relaxing these long before it was official, we’ve had big sporting events, Wimbledon, euros, F1, theatres, concerts, nightclubs opening. Yet the cases are dropping, and quite significantly at the moment.
So without wanting an argument why do the people who were predicting the opposite think this is happening?

I would guess that last weekend saw a spike in infections after the European championships finale the week before, when many people allowed themselves to socialise.

After the football championships finished, people returned to being more cautious. So new infections fell back again.

Unless it's the effect of schools breaking up, reducing social mixing of unvaccinated kids and lowering infection rates.

Perhaps both things.

I think we need to wait a couple more weeks to get a better impression of what's going on.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12998 on July 24, 2021, 09:47:50 pm by River Don »
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure

But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted.
It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros  effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc

We had a school disco and of course we got a message to say one of the kids tested positive next day. Everyone had to isolate. The infections started to be reported after 5 days and by day 8, that was it.

If most infections appear in this sort of timeframe, that would fit with what we are seeing.

This only a guess, mind.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #12999 on July 24, 2021, 09:49:45 pm by bpoolrover »
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure

But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted.
It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros  effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc
that is possible to mate, the numbers will have to rise thou with nightclubs open simply due to mixing, what you might find thou is you often find it's the same people that go the clubs each week so maybe if they mix mainly between themselves it won't be so bad

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13000 on July 24, 2021, 09:51:16 pm by dickos1 »
Genuinely interested, the folk who were predicting Exponential growth. Why do we think this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment?
Restrictions have been relaxed, and if we’re honest many folk had started relaxing these long before it was official, we’ve had big sporting events, Wimbledon, euros, F1, theatres, concerts, nightclubs opening. Yet the cases are dropping, and quite significantly at the moment.
So without wanting an argument why do the people who were predicting the opposite think this is happening?

I would guess that last weekend saw a spike in infections after the European championships finale the week before, when many people allowed themselves to socialise.

After the football championships finished, people returned to being more cautious. So new infections fell back again.

Unless it's the effect of schools breaking up, reducing social mixing of unvaccinated kids and lowering infection rates.

Perhaps both things.

I think we need to wait a couple more weeks to get a better impression of what's going on.

Some Good points
But what I would say if we’re saying the euros had an effect after a week or so, then surely the relaxing of the restrictions would also have a similar effect after a week or so

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13001 on July 24, 2021, 10:09:20 pm by River Don »
Perhaps the relaxing of restrictions will have an effect D.

This is the first weekend since relaxation, the socialising is likely be happening tonight and last night. The infections might be occurring next weekend then.

I doubt this weekend will be as big as the Euro final weekend though.

As I say keep an eye on the numbers for the next couple of weeks.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2021, 12:05:39 am by River Don »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13002 on July 24, 2021, 11:45:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You need to drill down into the data rather than look at the headline figures.

The figures that get the headlines are the new cases by the day they are REPORTED. But what is far more useful for seeing trends is to look at new cases based on the day the test took place. The cases by reporting date suffer from the fact that day to day, there are random delays between when tests happen and when they are reported.

So looking at the data for tests on the day they happened is the standard. And then, because there are typically more tests done on weekdays than at weekends, you don't compare one day's results with the previous day's. You compare tests on a given day with the results on that day the week before.

Looking at recent data, what does that tell us?

A week last Thursday there were nearly 100% more positive results than the previous Thurs.
A week last Friday there were almost 80% more than the previous Friday.

Saturday and Sunday's rises were 50%.

Last Monday's was about 15%.

Tuesday saw a FALL of nearly 20% on the previous Tuesday.

Wednesday saw a fall of 40%.

I would love for these numbers to represent a genuine indication that we had reached HI and the outbreak was genuinely falling. But there is no way on God's earth that the numbers turn round that quickly at HI threshold.

I reckon it is a combination of three things.

1) Euros parties working their way through the system. RD was absolutely right when you look at the data. A few days after the Euros there WAS a jump in the number of new cases. That is indicated by the 100% rise a week last Thurs. That means that the following week, when that glut has worked through, there was likely to be a fall or a smaller rise.

2) Schools starting to close. First ones in England started closing a week last Friday. By last Weds, most were closed. That means less regular testing of kids and less interaction between kids.

3) Controversial one, but as we get into holiday period, I suspect more people with mild symptoms or +ve lateral flow tests just wouldn't go for a PCR test for fear of missing long-booked holidays.

Those are all short term effects. If they, or something like them ARE the reason for this dip, we'd expect the rise to be re-established within a week or two. Let's see.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13003 on July 25, 2021, 12:02:43 am by dickos1 »
You need to drill down into the data rather than look at the headline figures.

The figures that get the headlines are the new cases by the day they are REPORTED. But what is far more useful for seeing trends is to look at new cases based on the day the test took place. The cases by reporting date suffer from the fact that day to day, there are random delays between when tests happen and when they are reported.

So looking at the data for tests on the day they happened is the standard. And then, because there are typically more tests done on weekdays than at weekends, you don't compare one day's results with the previous day's. You compare tests on a given day with the results on that day the week before.

Looking at recent data, what does that tell us?

A week last Thursday there were nearly 100% more positive results than the previous Thurs.
A week last Friday there were almost 80% more than the previous Friday.

Saturday and Sunday's rises were 50%.

Last Monday's was about 15%.

Tuesday saw a FALL of nearly 20% on the previous Tuesday.

Wednesday saw a fall of 40%.

I would love for these numbers to represent a genuine indication that we had reached HI and the outbreak was genuinely falling. But there is no way on God's earth that the numbers turn round that quickly at HI threshold.

I reckon it is a combination of three things.

1) Euros parties working their way through the system. RD was absolutely right when you look at the data. A few days after the Euros there WAS a jump in the number of new cases. That is indicated by the 100% rise a week last Thurs. That means that the following week, when that glut has worked through, there was likely to be a fall or a smaller rise.

2) Schools starting to close. First ones in England started closing a week last Friday. By last Weds, most were closed. That means less regular testing of kids and less interaction between kids.

3) Controversial one, but as we get into holiday period, I suspect more people with mild symptoms or +ve lateral flow tests just wouldn't go for a PCR test for fear of missing long-booked holidays.

Those are all short term effects. If they, or something like them ARE the reason for this dip, we'd expect the rise to be re-established within a week or two. Let's see.

But billy, when these figures were doing as you predicted a couple of weeks ago, you were using these headline figures to prove your point.
Also regarding your point with the euros, you state that there was a jump in cases a few days after but when I suggested we would have seen a jump by now after the relaxing of the restrictions you said a few days was far too soon.
The majority of schools in the U.K. closed yesterday, but if the schools has had an effect then this emphasises the point the government were making that now was as good a time as any to relax.
With regards holidays it’s a valid point but to go abroad most countries now you need to provide a PCR test whilst there and once you return so it’s not really an option not to have one.

Janso

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13004 on July 25, 2021, 12:02:55 am by Janso »
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure

But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted.
It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros  effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc
that is possible to mate, the numbers will have to rise thou with nightclubs open simply due to mixing, what you might find thou is you often find it's the same people that go the clubs each week so maybe if they mix mainly between themselves it won't be so bad

Except they don't just go straight home on their own and not leave the house until they go clubbing again. They don't just "mix mainly between themselves". They go home, probably to family, to work where they mix with God knows who if they're in a public facing job. You see how it gets out of control?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13005 on July 25, 2021, 12:13:14 am by River Don »
Regarding the relaxation of restrictions.

I think we have to keep in mind it began on a Monday. Throughout this week I don't think we have seen a massive change in general behaviours.

This weekend is likely to be the first time people will really relax, socialise and interact more.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13006 on July 25, 2021, 12:25:39 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Dickos.

No. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here but you are constantly wrong in what you say.

1) I NEVER use the headline figures. I always use the figures on the day the test was taken.

2) There is a very good reason why you should (at the moment) consider the Euros effect and the re-opening effect differently. One happened a week before the other. So pretty much all the cases that might have been due to the Euro effect will have now been logged. Whereas most of the infections that will have been caused by the re-opening so far have not yet had time to be logged.

Stop and think through the logic before you rush in to accuse me if double standards in future please. And please don't start every post with the assumption that I'm somehow trying to deceive people.

DonnyBazR0ver

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13007 on July 25, 2021, 07:14:29 am by DonnyBazR0ver »
I just find it bizarre that the fall in cases on consecutive days isn't headline news.

For balance the number of people being discharged from hospital is just as important as the other health care data.

The number of deaths by comparison to the 5 year average is also omitted from reporting.

In my view, we have seen people exercising their new freedoms in great numbers recently however, I believe this will settle down again as people get back to more normal behaviour. Pubs and restaurants will struggle for business again now most folk have been out for a pint and a meal a few times for example.

As hospitalizations are still rising gradually its too early to be celebrating but a few areas are reporting fewer people in hospital.

Let's have some balanced reporting please and stop living in fear.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13008 on July 25, 2021, 07:40:05 am by River Don »
Baz

The recent drop in cases has made the headlines.

But the people who publish these stories also understand the data might be misleading and know this sudden reversal isn't what we'd expect to see. That's why they are reluctant to declare the virus beaten immediately.

Even the Daily Mail has been adding a note of caution in their stories.


dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13009 on July 25, 2021, 07:46:59 am by dickos1 »
Dickos.

No. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here but you are constantly wrong in what you say.

1) I NEVER use the headline figures. I always use the figures on the day the test was taken.

2) There is a very good reason why you should (at the moment) consider the Euros effect and the re-opening effect differently. One happened a week before the other. So pretty much all the cases that might have been due to the Euro effect will have now been logged. Whereas most of the infections that will have been caused by the re-opening so far have not yet had time to be logged.

Stop and think through the logic before you rush in to accuse me if double standards in future please. And please don't start every post with the assumption that I'm somehow trying to deceive people.

Billy
you’re missing my point,
The peak after the euros was 6 days after and the cases increased each day during those 6 days. After the 6th day cases have fallen quite steadily.
We’re now on the 6th day since restrictions were relaxed and we haven’t seen nothing like an increase each day.
Anyhow regardless of any of this not long ago you stated
“Which means that WHEN (not if) we hit the 100,000 cases a day later this month, that is going to result in something like 250-300 deaths per day by mid to late August.”

So you said with certainty that we would now be looking at 100,000 cases a day but in actual fact the cases have gone down since you made this prediction, and we’re only around 35-40k.
There’s lots of things you said woukd happen and you stated them as though it was a certainty when I kept saying nobody really knows even the scientists don’t really know but you kept telling us what was going to happen.
So I’m not saying your deliberately deceiving us at all, I’m saying you maybe need to step back from making such doomsday predictions as though they’re set in stone.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13010 on July 25, 2021, 08:09:36 am by River Don »
D

Remember you said you're not out to provoke an argument and you wanted genuine ideas as to why we're seeing these numbers?

BST has given you a breakdown of what he thinks is going on, looking at the data.

So just put talk of doomsday predictions to one side, eh?

The answer at this point is follow the data for a couple more weeks so we can get a better idea of what's going on.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13011 on July 25, 2021, 08:21:41 am by dickos1 »
D

Remember you said you're not out to provoke an argument and you wanted genuine ideas as to why we're seeing these numbers?

BST has given you a breakdown of what he thinks is going on, looking at the data.

So just put talk of doomsday predictions to one side, eh?

The answer at this point is follow the data for a couple more weeks so we can get a better idea of what's going on.

River
I wasn’t interested in provoking an argument but reading Billy’s reply it seems he was.
If you’re going to talk to someone like that then you have to accept a response of a similar manner.
And I’m sure billy doesn’t need you to hold his hand when he’s in a discussion with others

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13012 on July 25, 2021, 08:36:38 am by River Don »
I'm sure BST doesn't need my help.

Reading what he posted back I don't see how he's trying to provoke or deceive.

There is no need for a heated debate.

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13013 on July 25, 2021, 08:43:48 am by dickos1 »
I’ve never said hes trying to deceive,
Just pointing out some of his predictions which he stated as fact don’t look like coming to fruition

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13014 on July 25, 2021, 08:56:52 am by River Don »
I don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13015 on July 25, 2021, 09:31:04 am by drfchound »
But he does say he only deals in facts.

DonnyBazR0ver

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13016 on July 25, 2021, 09:31:30 am by DonnyBazR0ver »
Baz

The recent drop in cases has made the headlines.

But the people who publish these stories also understand the data might be misleading and know this sudden reversal isn't what we'd expect to see. That's why they are reluctant to declare the virus beaten immediately.

Even the Daily Mail has been adding a note of caution in their stories.



I must be looking in the wrong places. Definitely BBC not headlining it.

Of course we should be cautionary. Likely there's going to continue to be peaks and troughs moving forward but I'd like a concensus on what attrition rate we as a society will accept as tolerable so we can  move on and agree it was the right thing to do to lift restrictions. 

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13017 on July 25, 2021, 10:21:37 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Dickos.

Regarding the effect of the re-opening, I'll repeat: it takes time for results to be reported. There are currently no data AT ALL in the COVID dashboard reported for tests conducted after Thursday this week. It takes up to 5-6 days AFTER a test is conducted for that test result to be officially recorded. THAT is why the effect of the Euros could be in the data, but the effect of the re-opening cannot yet be.

On the general trend, I'll say once again that the kind of sudden screeching turnround in the test numbers is the sort of thing you would only expect to see as a REAL change in the trajectory if there was a major intervention like a hard lockdown. So, with the information in front of us, I do believe we are seeing is m mainly due to an anomaly in the number of people actually going for tests.

There'll be a way to assess that next week. If there really was a huge increase in the number of people testing positive, followed by a juddering stop and reduction, that should be reflected in the new hospitalisation data about 10 days later. If there is a huge surge in hospitalisations from now to Tuesday, followed by a sudden drop, I'll accept (and be delighted to accept) that I've read this totally wrongly. I assume it works for other people too.

Finally, I DO get passionate about this because the costs of erring on the side of complacency are enormous. And I see people being complacent all over the place over the past week. You might remember Dickos in early March last year you were telling me I was over doing it with the negative predictions. I said then that we had the choice between half a million deaths in 3 months or the biggest change since WWII to the way we organise our lives. And you were telling me I was over doing it.

Here you are now. No reflection in the past 18 months. Telling me I'm over doing it.

no eyed deer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13018 on July 25, 2021, 10:39:17 am by no eyed deer »
The country cannot afford another lockdown.

Under 30s dont wont the vaccination as it's more risky than not having it.

It's time to live with it and move on now.


dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #13019 on July 25, 2021, 11:10:56 am by dickos1 »
I don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.

Read the quote from billy

WHEN not if we reach 100,000 cases a day by the end of July

 

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