Coronavirus

[wilts rover]

Just seen Jonathan Ashworth lisping through an interview on BBC where he was asked what he wanted Boris to do regarding the current Covid crisis...."  He responded that "people and businesses just wanted certainty about what was happening". 

The interviewer then asked him what Labour would do if they were in power...?, to which he replied "they would look at the data and regularly review the situation...."

The interviewee said - "well isn't that virtually what Boris said last night?"

Here's his contact details if you'd like to put him straight MM

https://members.parliament.uk/member/4244/contact

The interviewer already did that Syd - it showed that Labour don't have the answers either..... even if bumbling Boris is making competence look difficult...

But that's a stupid question. What would you different today even though you dont get the same access to the data that the government has?

What he should have been asked is - would you done any different earlier/or even yesterday? How is he going to propose anything different this morning when Johnson has said there wont be anything different this morning!

[River Don]

They are leaking that the first data is indeed suggesting Omricon is less aggressive.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10335485/Boris-hits-brakes-Christmas-lockdown-scientists-glimmer-hope.html

[SydneyRover]

Everyone hopes that is the case RD but there are still restrictions being brought in for some countries and cancelling of events in the near future for others.

[sha66y]

Everyone hopes that is the case RD but there are still restrictions being brought in for some countries and cancelling of events in the near future for others.

And therein lies the problem!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Anyone remember this? Funnily enough we all carried on as normal and didn't wreck the economy for decades to come.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5440785/Killer-flu-outbreak-blame-42-spike-deaths.html

Bit of homework for you.

Go and dig out how many people died in April 2020 and Jan 2021. Then write 100 words on how many more you think might have died if we'd not had lockdowns.

[wilts rover]

Without bothering to read the Daily Heil article, I presume it is based on the same report as this:

UKHSA Report on the severity of omicron to be published this week will show that it is less severe than delta among patients in the UK.

However the report has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital - which combined with staff absences could overwhelm the health services.

So pretty much what we know already then.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1473556411946717184

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/

[wilts rover]

Without bothering to read the Daily Heil article, I presume it is based on the same report as this:

UKHSA Report on the severity of omicron to be published this week will show that it is less severe than delta among patients in the UK.

However the report has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital - which combined with staff absences could overwhelm the health services.

So pretty much what we know already then.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1473556411946717184

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/

This 'mildness' would appear to be people becoming ill but nor requiring hospitalisation btw - once patients are in hospital outcomes for omircon patients are not significantly different to delta - which is also what they found in SA.

[roversdude]

Without bothering to read the Daily Heil article, I presume it is based on the same report as this:

UKHSA Report on the severity of omicron to be published this week will show that it is less severe than delta among patients in the UK.

However the report has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital - which combined with staff absences could overwhelm the health services.

So pretty much what we know already then.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1473556411946717184

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/

This 'mildness' would appear to be people becoming ill but nor requiring hospitalisation btw - once patients are in hospital outcomes for omircon patients are not significantly different to delta - which is also what they found in SA.

Is there anything further on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated hospital admissions and the number of flu cases ?

[Metalmicky]

106k cases and 140 deaths today...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

106k cases and 140 deaths today...

It's awful reporting this. It's reported cases not cases incurred and it's poor to outline this in the press.  There was over 100k cases on days last week it's just how they are reported.  We aren't necessarily seeing the huge doubling now though, so that suggests a good thing.

Hospital admissions are the key if that doesn't follow the same growth things are clearly much less severe.  If it does, restrictions have to come.

[wilts rover]

Without bothering to read the Daily Heil article, I presume it is based on the same report as this:

UKHSA Report on the severity of omicron to be published this week will show that it is less severe than delta among patients in the UK.

However the report has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital - which combined with staff absences could overwhelm the health services.

So pretty much what we know already then.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1473556411946717184

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/

This 'mildness' would appear to be people becoming ill but nor requiring hospitalisation btw - once patients are in hospital outcomes for omircon patients are not significantly different to delta - which is also what they found in SA.

Is there anything further on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated hospital admissions and the number of flu cases ?

Not that has been reported on that link. Guess we shall have to see when the report is released in the next couple of days.

[bpoolrover]

Early reports in uk and South Africa are two thirds less people needed hospital treatment, yes with the big numbers Would still mean a lot of people in hospital but is good news still

[roversdude]

So the latest news is blanket booster programmes are likely to prolong the virus.
Sure I’ve read somewhere that cloth face coverings don’t work too
It’s a minefield

[BillyStubbsTears]

301 hospitalisations in London yesterday, compared to 22,000 positive tests a week before. That suggests that the rate of hospitalisation is about 1 for every 70 cases, which isn't that much below the recent Delta average of about 1 per 50 cases.

As RD says, London does have some of the lowest vaccine uptake in the country, so hopefully the position will be better as Omicron spreads out to other parts.

[River Don]

The figures are high today.

Bit of a blow that, I was hoping we might have already reached an early peak but it doesn't look like that now.

Better news is that tentative early data suggests Omicron is hospitalising 2/3 fewer people. And that the severity of the strain seems to be less.

My gut feeling right now is we are in for a tricky month or two but when we come out of it, the Spring will see it become much less of a problem and going forward life will return to normal.

[Bentley Bullet]

My gut feeling is we are approaching the peak of the virus and this Omicron strain will be the last one of major significance and the virus will fizzle out before next spring.

[bpoolrover]

A Liverpool hospital intensive care unit is full off 30 and 40 year olds and not one has had a jab that says it all

[BillyStubbsTears]

We'll have a much better idea over the next few days how severe this is going to be.

Forget about case numbers having peaked. No way in the world will that have happened yet, unless there's been massive bottom up social distancing. Even if there has, it feels inevitable that folk meeting over Xmas will boost the spread.

What really matters now is how severe the illness is among a mostly vaccinated population. Place to watch is the SE England region. Their Omicron wave started getting to high new case numbers last Tuesday. So if that results in a surge of hospital cases like the one seen in London, we'd expect to start showing by the end of the week.  If it hasn't, that looks like massively good news.

[River Don]

My gut feeling is we are approaching the peak of the virus and this Omicron strain will be the last one of major significance and the virus will fizzle out before next spring.

Not impossible by any means.

Apparently because Omicron is so highly transmissible they expect the wave to be be high but that it will pass through and fall away quickly.

I'm guessing the measures we take now to limit hospital admissions will reduce daily figures and extend its progress a bit. Squashing the sombrero as someone said once.

[Ldr]

If it’s as infectious as they say and milder, there will be a LOT more undiagnosed cases which mean the hospitalisation rate is not as bad as ppl have said

[normal rules]

I have a feeling that because this spreads so quick, it could disappear as quick.

[selby]

  Omicron specific figures released this evening are 19 deaths with Omicron present 129 hospitalisations according to the radio at 6-30pm.

[rich1471]

I have a feeling that because this spreads so quick, it could disappear as quick.

well it might do ,but just got an email from work saying we will be paid 80% of or wages when we go into a circuit break , They would not send an email to staff unless they have been inform from somewhere about it

[BillyStubbsTears]

  Omicron specific figures released this evening are 19 deaths with Omicron present 129 hospitalisations according to the radio at 6-30pm.

1) That's where they know for sure that the strain was Omicron. But that's only a small fraction of the total number because they aren't doing genomic sequencing on more than a small fraction of all cases.

2) The deaths associated with the recent sudden rise won't start happening this side of New Year. Those 19 deaths are from oeoe who mainly caught Omicron weeks ago when there were very few cases in the UK.

[Ldr]

They don't genetically sequence every test. They do it on a proportion of the tests and use robust, well established statistical methods to estimate the overall figures.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Ldr. But the figures announced every day for Omicron cases and deaths are actual sequenced numbers, not estimates of the true figures.

[selby]

  I must admit Billy I thought I would be wrong.

[DonnyOsmond]

Part of me wonders whether the true figure is above what's reported as the daily figure and perhaps they're reaching their limit for the amount they can test in a day. I've had Covid recently and I was surprised that it too them 4 days before I had my PCR result, was the following day earlier in the pandemic.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I find it rather a coincidence that cases rocketed last week, before suddenly appearing to peak on 15 Dec then falling back.

There was then a 10 Day self isolation policy. Do the maths.

[normal rules]

My youngest son has come home for Xmas. He had been living in London up to a week ago and has come home for Xmas. He is 24. He knows many, many people in London his age who have it. Every day he hears of more testing positive.  My brother in law has it, he is 52 and lives in the North East, as does my youngest sons girlfriend. We have an older family friend In Sheffield who is 74. She has it too.
None of them have been or look like they need hospital. They have what is best described as cold/ flu symptoms.